Climate of the Past
Climate of the Past
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Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2487-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2487-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
Research article
 | 
12 Nov 2024
Research article |  | 12 Nov 2024

Predicting trends in atmospheric CO2 across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition using existing climate archives

Jordan R. W. Martin, Joel B. Pedro, and Tessa R. Vance

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Cited articles

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Bazin, L., Landais, A., Lemieux-Dudon, B., Toyé Mahamadou Kele, H., Veres, D., Parrenin, F., Martinerie, P., Ritz, C., Capron, E., Lipenkov, V., Loutre, M.-F., Raynaud, D., Vinther, B., Svensson, A., Rasmussen, S. O., Severi, M., Blunier, T., Leuenberger, M., Fischer, H., Masson-Delmotte, V., Chappellaz, J., and Wolff, E.: An optimized multi-proxy, multi-site Antarctic ice and gas orbital chronology (AICC2012): 120–800 ka, Clim. Past, 9, 1715–1731, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1715-2013, 2013. 
Bereiter, B., Eggleston, S., Schmitt, J., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Stocker, T. F., Fischer, H., Kipfstuhl, S., and Chappellaz, J.: Revision of the EPICA Dome C CO2 record from 800 to 600 ky before present, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 542–549, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl061957, 2015. 
Berends, C. J., de Boer, B., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Reconstructing the evolution of ice sheets, sea level, and atmospheric CO2 during the past 3.6 million years, Clim. Past, 17, 361–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, 2021a. 
Berends, C. J., Köhler, P., Lourens, L. J., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: On the cause of the mid-Pleistocene transition, Rev. Geophys., 59, e2020RG000727, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000727, 2021b. 
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We use existing palaeoclimate data and a statistical model to predict atmospheric CO2 concentrations across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. Our prediction assumes that the relationship between CO2 and benthic ẟ18Ocalcite over the past 800 000 years can be extended over the last 1.8 million years. We find no clear evidence from existing blue ice or proxy-based CO2 data to reject the predicted record. A definitive test awaits analysis of continuous oldest ice core records from Antarctica.
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