Articles | Volume 20, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1919-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1919-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Sep 2024
Research article |
| 06 Sep 2024
| 06 Sep 2024
Antarctic tipping points triggered by the mid-Pliocene warm climate
Javier Blasco
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
Ilaria Tabone
Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Institut für Geographie, Erlangen, Germany
Daniel Moreno-Parada
Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Instituto de Geociencias, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Alexander Robinson
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Instituto de Geociencias, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Frank Pattyn
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
Marisa Montoya
Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Instituto de Geociencias, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
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Sergio Pérez-Montero, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
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Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Alexander Robinson, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Javier Blasco, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Marisa Montoya
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-248, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-248, 2026
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Tidal-water intrusions can cause warm ocean water to extend beneath grounded Antarctic ice, increasing submarine melting beyond the grounding line. Here, a new parameterization representing this effect is introduced and tested in the Yelmo ice-sheet model, revealing that tides could amplify ice loss and sea-level rise. This new parameterization shows good agreement with inferred grounding zones.
Veena Prasad, Oskar Herrmann, Ilaria Tabone, Mamta K C, Alexander R. Groos, Guillaume Jouvet, James R. Jordan, and Johannes J. Fürst
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-508, 2026
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We present the testing and implementation of a calving framework for simulating the evolution of glacier fronts in grounded glacier tongues. The approach is coupled with a level set method to track changes in the glacier front over time and with an eigen-calving law that allows calving to respond to ice flow and stress conditions. The framework is evaluated using a synthetic glacier domain and, when applied to marine-terminating glaciers in Svalbard, reproduces observed calving front patterns.
Lucía Gutiérrez-González, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Ilaria Tabone, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, and Marisa Montoya
The Cryosphere, 20, 1139–1162, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1139-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1139-2026, 2026
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The Greenland ice sheet is considered a tipping element: if temperatures exceed its threshold, it would transition to a virtually ice-free state and the ice losses could be irreversible on very long timescales. We study its stability across the full range of glacial-interglacial temperatures, as well as those expected in coming centuries. We find a future critical threshold between 1.5-2ºC of global warming, another under colder climates, and persistent hysteresis across the full range of study.
Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Alexander Robinson, Lucía Gutiérrez-González, and Marisa Montoya
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6566, 2026
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet is subject to hysteresis, i.e. if ice is lost due to warming, a comparatively larger cooling is needed to recover the original state. Here, we show that this effect might be larger than previously assumed, with volume differences of as much as 35 metres of sea-level equivalent between retreat and regrowth. Due to the large population density along the coasts, this stresses the importance of mitigating future sea-level rise, since adapting to it will likely be much harder.
Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook, Lawrence Bird, Dawid Gwyther, Daniel Richards, Matthias Scheiter, Yu Wang, Hélène Seroussi, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez‐Solas, Xylar S. Asay‐Davis, Jean‐Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Tyler Pelle, Aurélien Quiquet, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Chen Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
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Yanjun Li, Violaine Coulon, Javier Blasco, Gang Qiao, Qinghua Yang, and Frank Pattyn
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Marius Schaefer, Ilaria Tabone, Ralf Greve, Johannes Fürst, and Matthias Braun
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The Northern Patagonian Icefield is the second largest ice mass of South America, located at moderate latitudes. Using an ice-flow model which uses available atmosphere data as input and explicitly models iceberg discharge, we assess its evolution. With present climate, it will lose about 25 % of its mass during this century. Climate change strongly accelerates losses and under Paris Agreement compliance it is 36 % until 2200 and up to 68 % under a business-as-usual fossil fuel scenario.
Florian Sauerland, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Sylvain Marchi, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, François Klein, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Charles Pelletier, Deborah Verfaillie, Lars Zipf, and Nicole van Lipzig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889, 2025
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We simulated the Antarctic climate from 1985 to 2014. Our model is driven using the ERA-5 reanalysis for one simulation and the EC-Earth global climate model for three others. Most of the simulated trends, such as sea ice extent and precipitation over land, have opposite signs for the two drivers, but agree between the three EC-Earth driven simulations. We conclude that these opposing trends must be due to the different drivers, and that the climate over land is less predictable than over sea.
Ole Zeising, Tore Hattermann, Lars Kaleschke, Sophie Berger, Olaf Boebel, Reinhard Drews, M. Reza Ershadi, Tanja Fromm, Frank Pattyn, Daniel Steinhage, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 19, 2837–2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2837-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2837-2025, 2025
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Basal melting of ice shelves impacts the mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. This study focuses on the Ekström Ice Shelf in East Antarctica, using multiyear data from an autonomous radar system. Results show a surprising seasonal pattern of high melt rates in winter and spring. The seasonalities of sea-ice growth and ocean density indicate that, in winter, dense water enhances plume activity and melt rates. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for improving future mass balance projections.
Katrina Lutz, Ilaria Tabone, Angelika Humbert, and Matthias Braun
The Cryosphere, 19, 2601–2614, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2601-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2601-2025, 2025
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Supraglacial lakes develop from meltwater collecting on the surface of glaciers. These lakes can drain rapidly, discharging meltwater to the glacier bed. In this study, we assess the spatial and temporal distribution of rapid drainages in Northeast Greenland using optical satellite images. After comparing rapid drainage occurrence with several environmental and geophysical parameters, little indication of the influencing conditions for a rapid drainage was found.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3895–3919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3895-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3895-2025, 2025
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We introduce Nix, an ice-sheet model designed for understanding how large masses of ice behave. Nix is a computer programme that simulates the movement and temperature evolution in ice sheets. It helps us study how ice sheets respond to changes in the atmosphere and ocean. We found that ice temperatures play an essential role in determining the motion and stability of ice sheets. Nix is a useful tool for learning how climate change affects polar ice sheets.
Sergio Pérez-Montero, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 915–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025, 2025
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The climate of the last 3 Myr has varied between cold and warm periods. Numerous independent mechanisms have been proposed to explain this; however, no effort has been made to study their competing effects. Here we present a simple but physically motivated model that includes these mechanisms in a modular way. We identify ice-sheet dynamics and lithosphere displacement as main triggers, but reproducing the climate records additionally requires the natural darkening of ice.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
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The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Elise Kazmierczak, Thomas Gregov, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 5887–5911, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, 2024
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We introduce a new fast model for water flow beneath the ice sheet capable of handling various hydrological and bed conditions in a unified way. Applying this model to Thwaites Glacier, we show that accounting for this water flow in ice sheet model projections has the potential to greatly increase the contribution to future sea level rise. We also demonstrate that the sensitivity of the ice sheet in response to external changes depends on the efficiency of the drainage and the bed type.
Ann Kristin Klose, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4463–4492, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, 2024
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We systematically assess the long-term sea-level response from Antarctica to warming projected over the next centuries, using two ice-sheet models. We show that this committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is substantially higher than the transient sea-level change projected for the coming decades. A low-emission scenario already poses considerable risk of multi-meter sea-level increase over the next millennia, while additional East Antarctic ice loss unfolds under the high-emission pathway.
Therese Rieckh, Andreas Born, Alexander Robinson, Robert Law, and Gerrit Gülle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6987–7000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6987-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6987-2024, 2024
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We present the open-source model ELSA, which simulates the internal age structure of large ice sheets. It creates layers of snow accumulation at fixed times during the simulation, which are used to model the internal stratification of the ice sheet. Together with reconstructed isochrones from radiostratigraphy data, ELSA can be used to assess ice sheet models and to improve their parameterization. ELSA can be used coupled to an ice sheet model or forced with its output.
Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Javier Blasco, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4257–4283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, 2024
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We present sea level projections for Antarctica in the context of ISMIP6-2300 with several forcings but extend the simulations to 2500, showing that more than 3 m of sea level contribution could be reached. We also test the sensitivity on a basal melting parameter and determine the timing of the loss of ice in the west region. All the simulations were carried out with the ice sheet model Yelmo.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4215–4232, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, 2024
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Our study tries to understand how the ice temperature evolves in a large mass as in the case of Antarctica. We found a relation that tells us the ice temperature at any point. These results are important because they also determine how the ice moves. In general, ice moves due to slow deformation (as if pouring honey from a jar). Nevertheless, in some regions the ice base warms enough and melts. The liquid water then serves as lubricant and the ice slides and its velocity increases rapidly.
Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Marisa Montoya, Konstantin Latychev, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Jerry Mitrovica
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5263–5290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5263-2024, 2024
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Ice sheets present a thickness of a few kilometres, leading to a vertical deformation of the crust of up to a kilometre. This process depends on properties of the solid Earth, which can be regionally very different. We propose a model that accounts for this often-ignored heterogeneity and run 100 000 simulation years in minutes. Thus, the evolution of ice sheets is modeled with better accuracy, which is critical for a good mitigation of climate change and, in particular, sea-level rise.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
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We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Sarah Wauthy, Jean-Louis Tison, Mana Inoue, Saïda El Amri, Sainan Sun, François Fripiat, Philippe Claeys, and Frank Pattyn
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 35–58, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-35-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-35-2024, 2024
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The datasets presented are the density, water isotopes, ions, and conductivity measurements, as well as age models and surface mass balance (SMB) from the top 120 m of two ice cores drilled on adjacent ice rises in Dronning Maud Land, dating from the late 18th century. They offer many development possibilities for the interpretation of paleo-profiles and for addressing the mechanisms behind the spatial and temporal variability of SMB and proxies observed at the regional scale in East Antarctica.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Alice C. Frémand, Peter Fretwell, Julien A. Bodart, Hamish D. Pritchard, Alan Aitken, Jonathan L. Bamber, Robin Bell, Cesidio Bianchi, Robert G. Bingham, Donald D. Blankenship, Gino Casassa, Ginny Catania, Knut Christianson, Howard Conway, Hugh F. J. Corr, Xiangbin Cui, Detlef Damaske, Volkmar Damm, Reinhard Drews, Graeme Eagles, Olaf Eisen, Hannes Eisermann, Fausto Ferraccioli, Elena Field, René Forsberg, Steven Franke, Shuji Fujita, Yonggyu Gim, Vikram Goel, Siva Prasad Gogineni, Jamin Greenbaum, Benjamin Hills, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Andrew O. Hoffman, Per Holmlund, Nicholas Holschuh, John W. Holt, Annika N. Horlings, Angelika Humbert, Robert W. Jacobel, Daniela Jansen, Adrian Jenkins, Wilfried Jokat, Tom Jordan, Edward King, Jack Kohler, William Krabill, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Kirsty Langley, Joohan Lee, German Leitchenkov, Carlton Leuschen, Bruce Luyendyk, Joseph MacGregor, Emma MacKie, Kenichi Matsuoka, Mathieu Morlighem, Jérémie Mouginot, Frank O. Nitsche, Yoshifumi Nogi, Ole A. Nost, John Paden, Frank Pattyn, Sergey V. Popov, Eric Rignot, David M. Rippin, Andrés Rivera, Jason Roberts, Neil Ross, Anotonia Ruppel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Andrew M. Smith, Daniel Steinhage, Michael Studinger, Bo Sun, Ignazio Tabacco, Kirsty Tinto, Stefano Urbini, David Vaughan, Brian C. Welch, Douglas S. Wilson, Duncan A. Young, and Achille Zirizzotti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2695–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, 2023
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This paper presents the release of over 60 years of ice thickness, bed elevation, and surface elevation data acquired over Antarctica by the international community. These data are a crucial component of the Antarctic Bedmap initiative which aims to produce a new map and datasets of Antarctic ice thickness and bed topography for the international glaciology and geophysical community.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Javier Blasco, Marisa Montoya, and Alexander Robinson
The Cryosphere, 17, 2139–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2139-2023, 2023
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We have reconstructed the Laurentide Ice Sheet, located in North America during the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 years ago). The absence of direct measurements raises a number of uncertainties. Here we study the impact of different physical laws that describe the friction as the ice slides over its base. We found that the Laurentide Ice Sheet is closest to prior reconstructions when the basal friction takes into account whether the base is frozen or thawed during its motion.
Elise Kazmierczak, Sainan Sun, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 16, 4537–4552, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022, 2022
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The water at the interface between ice sheets and underlying bedrock leads to lubrication between the ice and the bed. Due to a lack of direct observations, subglacial conditions beneath the Antarctic ice sheet are poorly understood. Here, we compare different approaches in which the subglacial water could influence sliding on the underlying bedrock and suggest that it modulates the Antarctic ice sheet response and increases uncertainties, especially in the context of global warming.
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Alexander Robinson, and Neil R. Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022
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In this paper we present the climate component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. It has a horizontal resolution of 5°x5° and is designed to simulate the evolution of the Earth system on temporal scales ranging from decades to >100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is available as open-source code and is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the climate.
Alexander Robinson, Daniel Goldberg, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 16, 689–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, 2022
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Here we investigate the numerical stability of several commonly used methods in order to determine which of them are capable of resolving the complex physics of the ice flow and are also computationally efficient. We find that the so-called DIVA solver outperforms the others. Its representation of the physics is consistent with more complex methods, while it remains computationally efficient at high resolution.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
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We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Andreas Born and Alexander Robinson
The Cryosphere, 15, 4539–4556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4539-2021, 2021
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Ice penetrating radar reflections from the Greenland ice sheet are the best available record of past accumulation and how these layers have been deformed over time by the flow of ice. Direct simulations of this archive hold great promise for improving our models and for uncovering details of ice sheet dynamics that neither models nor data could achieve alone. We present the first three-dimensional ice sheet model that explicitly simulates individual layers of accumulation and how they deform.
Cited articles
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Burton-Johnson, A., Dziadek, R., and Martin, C.: Review article: Geothermal heat flow in Antarctica: current and future directions, The Cryosphere, 14, 3843–3873, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3843-2020, 2020. a
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De La Vega, E., Chalk, T. B., Wilson, P. A., Bysani, R. P., and Foster, G. L.: Atmospheric CO2 during the Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period and the M2 glaciation, Sci. Rep.-UK, 10, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67154-8, 2020. a
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Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
Dowsett, H., Dolan, A., Rowley, D., Moucha, R., Forte, A. M., Mitrovica, J. X., Pound, M., Salzmann, U., Robinson, M., Chandler, M., Foley, K., and Haywood, A.: The PRISM4 (mid-Piacenzian) paleoenvironmental reconstruction, Clim. Past, 12, 1519–1538, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1519-2016, 2016. a
Dumitru, O. A., Austermann, J., Polyak, V. J., Fornós, J. J., Asmerom, Y., Ginés, J., Ginés, A., and Onac, B. P.: Constraints on global mean sea level during Pliocene warmth, Nature, 574, 233–236, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1543-2, 2019. a, b
Edwards, T. L., Brandon, M. A., Durand, G., Edwards, N. R., Golledge, N. R., Holden, P. B., Nias, I. J., Payne, A. J., Ritz, C., and Wernecke, A.: Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability, Nature, 566, 58–64, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4, 2019. a
Favier, L., Jourdain, N. C., Jenkins, A., Merino, N., Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., and Mathiot, P.: Assessment of sub-shelf melting parameterisations using the ocean–ice-sheet coupled model NEMO(v3.6)–Elmer/Ice(v8.3), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2255–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019, 2019. a
Feldmann, J., Albrecht, T., Khroulev, C., Pattyn, F., and Levermann, A.: Resolution-dependent performance of grounding line motion in a shallow model compared with a full-Stokes model according to the MISMIP3d intercomparison, J. Glaciol., 60, 353–360, https://doi.org/10.3189/2014JoG13J093, 2014. a
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Fürst, J. J., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Tavard, L., Rankl, M., Braun, M., and Gagliardini, O.: The safety band of Antarctic ice shelves, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 479–482, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2912, 2016. a
Garbe, J., Albrecht, T., Levermann, A., Donges, J. F., and Winkelmann, R.: The hysteresis of the Antarctic ice sheet, Nature, 585, 538–544, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5, 2020. a, b, c, d
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Golledge, N. R., Kowalewski, D. E., Naish, T. R., Levy, R. H., Fogwill, C. J., and Gasson, E. G.: The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise, Nature, 526, 421–425, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15706, 2015. a
Golledge, N. R., Thomas, Z. A., Levy, R. H., Gasson, E. G. W., Naish, T. R., McKay, R. M., Kowalewski, D. E., and Fogwill, C. J.: Antarctic climate and ice-sheet configuration during the early Pliocene interglacial at 4.23 Ma, Clim. Past, 13, 959–975, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-959-2017, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Grant, G., Naish, T., Dunbar, G., Stocchi, P., Kominz, M., Kamp, P. J., Tapia, C., McKay, R., Levy, R., and Patterson, M.: The amplitude and origin of sea-level variability during the Pliocene epoch, Nature, 574, 237–241, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1619-z, 2019. a
Guillermic, M., Misra, S., Eagle, R., and Tripati, A.: Atmospheric CO2 estimates for the Miocene to Pleistocene based on foraminiferal δ11B at Ocean Drilling Program Sites 806 and 807 in the Western Equatorial Pacific, Clim. Past, 18, 183–207, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-183-2022, 2022. a
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Short summary
In this study, we assess Antarctic tipping points which may had been crossed during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period. For this, we use data from the PlioMIP2 ensemble. Additionally, we investigate various sources of uncertainty, like ice dynamics and bedrock configuration. Our research significantly enhances our comprehension of Antarctica's response to a warming climate, shedding light on potential future tipping points that may be surpassed.
In this study, we assess Antarctic tipping points which may had been crossed during the...
