Articles | Volume 20, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1615-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1615-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Jul 2024
Research article |
| 25 Jul 2024
| 25 Jul 2024
Response of coastal California hydroclimate to the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum
Xiaodong Zhang
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA
Brett J. Tipple
FloraTrace Inc., Salt Lake City, UT 84103, USA
Jiang Zhu
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
William D. Rush
Department of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CA 95053, USA
Christian A. Shields
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
Joseph B. Novak
Department of Ocean Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA
James C. Zachos
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA
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John T. Fasullo, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Julie M. Caron, Nan Rosenbloom, Gerald A. Meehl, Warren Strand, Sasha Glanville, Samantha Stevenson, Maria Molina, Christine A. Shields, Chengzhu Zhang, James Benedict, Hailong Wang, and Tony Bartoletti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-367-2024, 2024
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Climate model large ensembles provide a unique and invaluable means for estimating the climate response to external forcing agents and quantify contrasts in model structure. Here, an overview of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 large ensemble is given along with comparisons to large ensembles from E3SM version 1 and versions 1 and 2 of the Community Earth System Model. The paper provides broad and important context for users of these ensembles.
Marci M. Robinson, Kenneth G. Miller, Tali L. Babila, Timothy J. Bralower, James V. Browning, Marlow J. Cramwinckel, Monika Doubrawa, Gavin L. Foster, Megan K. Fung, Sean Kinney, Maria Makarova, Peter P. McLaughlin, Paul N. Pearson, Ursula Röhl, Morgan F. Schaller, Jean M. Self-Trail, Appy Sluijs, Thomas Westerhold, James D. Wright, and James C. Zachos
Sci. Dril., 33, 47–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-33-47-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-33-47-2024, 2024
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The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is the closest geological analog to modern anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but its causes and the responses remain enigmatic. Coastal plain sediments can resolve this uncertainty, but their discontinuous nature requires numerous sites to constrain events. Workshop participants identified 10 drill sites that target the PETM and other interesting intervals. Our post-drilling research will provide valuable insights into Earth system responses.
Julia Campbell, Christopher J. Poulsen, Jiang Zhu, Jessica E. Tierney, and Jeremy Keeler
Clim. Past, 20, 495–522, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-495-2024, 2024
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In this study, we use climate modeling to investigate the relative impact of CO2 and orbit on Early Eocene (~ 55 million years ago) climate and compare our modeled results to fossil records to determine the context for the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, the most extreme hyperthermal in the Cenozoic. Our conclusions consider limitations and illustrate the importance of climate models when interpreting paleoclimate records in times of extreme warmth.
Sarah L. Bradley, Raymond Sellevold, Michele Petrini, Miren Vizcaino, Sotiria Georgiou, Jiang Zhu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Marcus Lofverstrom
Clim. Past, 20, 211–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, 2024
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was the most recent period with large ice sheets in Europe and North America. We provide a detailed analysis of surface mass and energy components for two time periods that bracket the LGM: 26 and 21 ka BP. We use an earth system model which has been adopted for modern ice sheets. We find that all Northern Hemisphere ice sheets have a positive surface mass balance apart from the British and Irish ice sheets and the North American ice sheet complex.
William Rush, Jean Self-Trail, Yang Zhang, Appy Sluijs, Henk Brinkhuis, James Zachos, James G. Ogg, and Marci Robinson
Clim. Past, 19, 1677–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1677-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1677-2023, 2023
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The Eocene contains several brief warming periods referred to as hyperthermals. Studying these events and how they varied between locations can help provide insight into our future warmer world. This study provides a characterization of two of these events in the mid-Atlantic region of the USA. The records of climate that we measured demonstrate significant changes during this time period, but the type and timing of these changes highlight the complexity of climatic changes.
Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Trude Eidhammer, Katherine Thayer-Calder, Jian Sun, Richard Forbes, Zachary McGraw, Jiang Zhu, Trude Storelvmo, and John Dennis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1735–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1735-2023, 2023
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Clouds are a critical part of weather and climate prediction. In this work, we document updates and corrections to the description of clouds used in several Earth system models. These updates include the ability to run the scheme on graphics processing units (GPUs), changes to the numerical description of precipitation, and a correction to the ice number. There are big improvements in the computational performance that can be achieved with GPU acceleration.
Michelle L. Maclennan, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Christine A. Shields, Andrew O. Hoffman, Nander Wever, Megan Thompson-Munson, Andrew C. Winters, Erin C. Pettit, Theodore A. Scambos, and Jonathan D. Wille
The Cryosphere, 17, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-865-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric rivers are air masses that transport large amounts of moisture and heat towards the poles. Here, we use a combination of weather observations and models to quantify the amount of snowfall caused by atmospheric rivers in West Antarctica which is about 10 % of the total snowfall each year. We then examine a unique event that occurred in early February 2020, when three atmospheric rivers made landfall over West Antarctica in rapid succession, leading to heavy snowfall and surface melt.
Martin Renoult, Navjit Sagoo, Jiang Zhu, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 19, 323–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023, 2023
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The relationship between the Last Glacial Maximum and the sensitivity of climate models to a doubling of CO2 can be used to estimate the true sensitivity of the Earth. However, this relationship has varied in successive model generations. In this study, we assess multiple processes at the Last Glacial Maximum which weaken this relationship. For example, how models respond to the presence of ice sheets is a large contributor of uncertainty.
Ryan A. Green, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Xavier Crosta, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 18, 845–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, 2022
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Climate models are used to predict future climate changes and as such, it is important to assess their performance in simulating past climate changes. We analyze seasonal sea-ice cover over the Southern Ocean simulated from numerical PMIP3, PMIP4 and LOVECLIM simulations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Comparing these simulations to proxy data, we provide improved estimates of LGM seasonal sea-ice cover. Our estimate of summer sea-ice extent is 20 %–30 % larger than previous estimates.
Timothy D. Herbert, Rocio Caballero-Gill, and Joseph B. Novak
Clim. Past, 17, 1385–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1385-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1385-2021, 2021
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The Pliocene represents a geologically warm period with polar ice restricted to the Antarctic. Nevertheless, variability and ice volume persisted in the Pliocene. This work revisits a classic site on which much of our understanding of Pliocene paleoclimate variability is based and corrects errors in data sets related to ice volume and ocean surface temperature. In particular, it generates an improved representation of an enigmatic glacial episode in Pliocene times (circa 3.3 Ma).
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Jiang Zhu and Christopher J. Poulsen
Clim. Past, 17, 253–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-253-2021, 2021
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Climate sensitivity has been directly calculated from paleoclimate data. This approach relies on good understandings of climate forcings and interactions within the Earth system. We conduct Last Glacial Maximum simulations using a climate model to quantify the forcing and efficacy of ice sheets and greenhouse gases and to directly estimate climate sensitivity in the model. Results suggest that the direct calculation overestimates the truth by 25 % due to neglecting ocean dynamical feedback.
Daniel J. Lunt, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, David K. Hutchinson, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Polina Morozova, Igor Niezgodzki, Sebastian Steinig, Zhongshi Zhang, Jiang Zhu, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Eleni Anagnostou, Agatha M. de Boer, Helen K. Coxall, Yannick Donnadieu, Gavin Foster, Gordon N. Inglis, Gregor Knorr, Petra M. Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Gerrit Lohmann, Christopher J. Poulsen, Pierre Sepulchre, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny M. Volodin, Tom Dunkley Jones, Christopher J. Hollis, Matthew Huber, and Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 17, 203–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, 2021
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This paper presents the first modelling results from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP), in which we focus on the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO, 50 million years ago). We show that, in contrast to previous work, at least three models (CESM, GFDL, and NorESM) produce climate states that are consistent with proxy indicators of global mean temperature and polar amplification, and they achieve this at a CO2 concentration that is consistent with the CO2 proxy record.
Prabhat, Karthik Kashinath, Mayur Mudigonda, Sol Kim, Lukas Kapp-Schwoerer, Andre Graubner, Ege Karaismailoglu, Leo von Kleist, Thorsten Kurth, Annette Greiner, Ankur Mahesh, Kevin Yang, Colby Lewis, Jiayi Chen, Andrew Lou, Sathyavat Chandran, Ben Toms, Will Chapman, Katherine Dagon, Christine A. Shields, Travis O'Brien, Michael Wehner, and William Collins
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 107–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-107-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-107-2021, 2021
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Detecting extreme weather events is a crucial step in understanding how they change due to climate change. Deep learning (DL) is remarkable at pattern recognition; however, it works best only when labeled datasets are available. We create
ClimateNet– an expert-labeled curated dataset – to train a DL model for detecting weather events and predicting changes in extreme precipitation. This work paves the way for DL-based automated, high-fidelity, and highly precise analytics of climate data.
Yusuf Jameel, Simon Brewer, Richard P. Fiorella, Brett J. Tipple, Shazelle Terry, and Gabriel J. Bowen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6109–6125, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6109-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6109-2018, 2018
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Public water supply systems (PWSSs) are important infrastructure susceptible to contamination and physical disruption. In general, PWSSs are analyzed using hydrodynamic models, which requires detailed supply infrastructure information. In this paper, we have shown that stable isotope mixing models can also provide useful information on PWSSs. The method developed here can be useful in studying decentralized PWSSs, validating hydrodynamic models and solving water right issues.
Christine A. Shields, Jonathan J. Rutz, Lai-Yung Leung, F. Martin Ralph, Michael Wehner, Brian Kawzenuk, Juan M. Lora, Elizabeth McClenny, Tashiana Osborne, Ashley E. Payne, Paul Ullrich, Alexander Gershunov, Naomi Goldenson, Bin Guan, Yun Qian, Alexandre M. Ramos, Chandan Sarangi, Scott Sellars, Irina Gorodetskaya, Karthik Kashinath, Vitaliy Kurlin, Kelly Mahoney, Grzegorz Muszynski, Roger Pierce, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Ricardo Tome, Duane Waliser, Daniel Walton, Gary Wick, Anna Wilson, David Lavers, Prabhat, Allison Collow, Harinarayan Krishnan, Gudrun Magnusdottir, and Phu Nguyen
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2455–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2455-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2455-2018, 2018
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ARTMIP (Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project) is a community effort with the explicit goal of understanding the uncertainties, and the implications of those uncertainties, in atmospheric river science solely due to detection algorithm. ARTMIP strives to quantify these differences and provide guidance on appropriate algorithmic choices for the science question posed. Project goals, experimental design, and preliminary results are provided.
Thomas Westerhold, Ursula Röhl, Thomas Frederichs, Claudia Agnini, Isabella Raffi, James C. Zachos, and Roy H. Wilkens
Clim. Past, 13, 1129–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1129-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1129-2017, 2017
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We assembled a very accurate geological timescale from the interval 47.8 to 56.0 million years ago, also known as the Ypresian stage. We used cyclic variations in the data caused by periodic changes in Earthäs orbit around the sun as a metronome for timescale construction. Our new data compilation provides the first geological evidence for chaos in the long-term behavior of planetary orbits in the solar system, as postulated almost 30 years ago, and a possible link to plate tectonics events.
Christine A. Shields and Jeffrey T. Kiehl
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-42, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-42, 2017
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The megamonsoon is analyzed for the late Permian (~251Ma) period in Earth's deep climatic past using a sophisticated global climate model that simulates interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice. We show the location of the megamonsoon is dependent on the location of the warmest sea surface temperatures in tropical and subtropical regions and not the land-sea temperature gradient by performing experiments with geography that impact both atmospheric and oceanic simulations.
Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Eleni Anagnostou, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Rodrigo Caballero, Rob DeConto, Henk A. Dijkstra, Yannick Donnadieu, David Evans, Ran Feng, Gavin L. Foster, Ed Gasson, Anna S. von der Heydt, Chris J. Hollis, Gordon N. Inglis, Stephen M. Jones, Jeff Kiehl, Sandy Kirtland Turner, Robert L. Korty, Reinhardt Kozdon, Srinath Krishnan, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Petra Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Allegra N. LeGrande, Kate Littler, Paul Markwick, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Paul Pearson, Christopher J. Poulsen, Ulrich Salzmann, Christine Shields, Kathryn Snell, Michael Stärz, James Super, Clay Tabor, Jessica E. Tierney, Gregory J. L. Tourte, Aradhna Tripati, Garland R. Upchurch, Bridget S. Wade, Scott L. Wing, Arne M. E. Winguth, Nicky M. Wright, James C. Zachos, and Richard E. Zeebe
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 889–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, 2017
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In this paper we describe the experimental design for a set of simulations which will be carried out by a range of climate models, all investigating the climate of the Eocene, about 50 million years ago. The intercomparison of model results is called 'DeepMIP', and we anticipate that we will contribute to the next IPCC report through an analysis of these simulations and the geological data to which we will compare them.
Hemmo A. Abels, Vittoria Lauretano, Anna E. van Yperen, Tarek Hopman, James C. Zachos, Lucas J. Lourens, Philip D. Gingerich, and Gabriel J. Bowen
Clim. Past, 12, 1151–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1151-2016, 2016
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Ancient greenhouse warming episodes are studied in river floodplain sediments in the western interior of the USA. Paleohydrological changes of four smaller warming episodes are revealed to be the opposite of those of the largest, most-studied event. Carbon cycle tracers are used to ascertain whether the largest event was a similar event but proportional to the smaller ones or whether this event was distinct in size as well as in carbon sourcing, a question the current work cannot answer.
V. Lauretano, K. Littler, M. Polling, J. C. Zachos, and L. J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 11, 1313–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1313-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1313-2015, 2015
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Several episodes of global warming took place during greenhouse conditions in the early Eocene and are recorded in deep-sea sediments. The stable carbon and oxygen isotope records are used to investigate the magnitude of six of these events describing their effects on the global carbon cycle and the associated temperature response. Findings indicate that these events share a common nature and hint to the presence of multiple sources of carbon release.
T. Westerhold, U. Röhl, T. Frederichs, S. M. Bohaty, and J. C. Zachos
Clim. Past, 11, 1181–1195, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1181-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1181-2015, 2015
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Testing hypotheses for mechanisms and dynamics of past climate change relies on the accuracy of geological dating. Development of a highly accurate geological timescale for the Cenozoic Era has previously been hampered by discrepancies between radioisotopic and astronomical dating methods, as well as a stratigraphic gap in the middle Eocene. We close this gap and provide a fundamental advance in establishing a reliable and highly accurate geological timescale for the last 66 million years.
C. J. Hollis, B. R. Hines, K. Littler, V. Villasante-Marcos, D. K. Kulhanek, C. P. Strong, J. C. Zachos, S. M. Eggins, L. Northcote, and A. Phillips
Clim. Past, 11, 1009–1025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1009-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1009-2015, 2015
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Re-examination of a Deep Sea Drilling Project sediment core (DSDP Site 277) from the western Campbell Plateau has identified the initial phase of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) within nannofossil chalk, the first record of the PETM in an oceanic setting in the southern Pacific Ocean (paleolatitude of ~65°S). Geochemical proxies indicate that intermediate and surface waters warmed by ~6° at the onset of the PETM prior to the full development of the negative δ13C excursion.
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Short summary
This study is motivated by the current anthropogenic-warming-forced transition in regional hydroclimate. We use observations and model simulations during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) to constrain the regional/local hydroclimate response. Our findings, based on multiple observational evidence within the context of model output, suggest a transition toward greater aridity and precipitation extremes in central California during the PETM.
This study is motivated by the current anthropogenic-warming-forced transition in regional...
