Articles | Volume 20, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1615-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1615-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Jul 2024
Research article |
| 25 Jul 2024
| 25 Jul 2024
Response of coastal California hydroclimate to the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum
Xiaodong Zhang
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA
Brett J. Tipple
FloraTrace Inc., Salt Lake City, UT 84103, USA
Jiang Zhu
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
William D. Rush
Department of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CA 95053, USA
Christian A. Shields
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
Joseph B. Novak
Department of Ocean Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA
James C. Zachos
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3595, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Simulating warm paleoclimates increases our understanding of the mechanisms that drive climatic change and tipping points. The Miocene Epoch, specifically the Miocene Climatic Optimum, has been identified as a particularly valuable past warm climate to simulate, meriting the design of a coordinated Miocene Model Intercomparison Project. Here we synthesize the latest available literature and present the experimental design for coordinated Miocene simulations and sensitivity studies.
Daniel J. Lunt, Nicky M. Wright, Bram Vaes, Ulrich Salzmann, James W. B. Rae, Thomas Hickler, David K. Hutchinson, Julia Brugger, Jiang Zhu, Sebastian Steinig, A. Nele Meckler, Gordon N. Inglis, David Evans, Agatha M. de Boer, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Natalie Burls, Yurui Zhang, Appy Sluijs, Tammo Reichgelt, Igor Niezgodzki, Katrin Meissner, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Fanni D. Kelemen, Matthew Huber, David R. Greenwood, Mattias Green, Flavia Boscolo-Galazzo, Manuel Tobias Blau, and Michiel Baatsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 6143–6166, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6143-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6143-2026, 2026
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The early Eocene, about 50 million years ago, was a super-warm period of Earth's history, with high concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Here, we provide a framework and experimental design for climate modellers to carry out a coordinated project, simulating this period. This is the second phase of this project, and here we provide updated maps of the Earth's mountains and ocean floor, and vegetation, to enable more accurate modelling.
Joseph B. Novak, Rocío P. Caballero-Gill, Timothy D. Herbert, Harry J. Dowsett, and Alfredo Martínez-García
Clim. Past, 22, 1277–1290, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-1277-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-1277-2026, 2026
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Accurate information about the surface ocean temperatures are important for understanding Earth's climate history. Here, we correct a sea surface temperature record from the critical subarctic North Pacific region for systematic biases introduced into the algal-biomarker-based geologic temperature estimates by the analytical method used by the original study.
Fanni Dóra Kelemen, Richard Lohmann, Jiang Zhu, and Bodo Ahrens
Clim. Past, 22, 505–516, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-505-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-505-2026, 2026
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The arrangement of continents and oceans strongly affects climate by shaping large-scale circulation patterns. We study, how early Eocene geography (53.5 Ma) influenced mid-latitude storms and persistent high-pressure systems, focusing on the West Siberian Sea and absent Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The climate model simulation of the early Eocene, shows a more balanced hemispheric distribution, through increased northern and decreased southern mid-latitude storm activity compared to today.
Tancrède P. M. Leger, Jeremy C. Ely, Christopher D. Clark, Sarah L. Bradley, Rosie E. Archer, and Jiang Zhu
The Cryosphere, 19, 5719–5761, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5719-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5719-2025, 2025
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This study uses state-of-the-art computer simulations to better constrain the Greenland-Ice-Sheet's evolution over the past 24,000 years. By comparing model results with geological data, it reveals when and why the ice sheet grew and shrank, helping to improve future predictions of sea level rise and climate change.
Arne M. E. Winguth, Mikaela Brown, Pincelli Hull, Elizabeth Griffith, Christine Shields, Ellen Thomas, and Cornelia Winguth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4209, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4209, 2025
Preprint archived
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The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) about 56 million years ago is characterized by a rapid perturbation of the global carbon cycle. Comparison of sedimentary records with results from a comprehensive Earth system model suggest that environmental changes including benthic foraminifera extinction may have caused by a massive carbon input at the PETM and associate collapse of the ocean circulation due to the greenhouse-gas induced warming.
John T. Fasullo, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Julie M. Caron, Nan Rosenbloom, Gerald A. Meehl, Warren Strand, Sasha Glanville, Samantha Stevenson, Maria Molina, Christine A. Shields, Chengzhu Zhang, James Benedict, Hailong Wang, and Tony Bartoletti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-367-2024, 2024
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Climate model large ensembles provide a unique and invaluable means for estimating the climate response to external forcing agents and quantify contrasts in model structure. Here, an overview of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 large ensemble is given along with comparisons to large ensembles from E3SM version 1 and versions 1 and 2 of the Community Earth System Model. The paper provides broad and important context for users of these ensembles.
Marci M. Robinson, Kenneth G. Miller, Tali L. Babila, Timothy J. Bralower, James V. Browning, Marlow J. Cramwinckel, Monika Doubrawa, Gavin L. Foster, Megan K. Fung, Sean Kinney, Maria Makarova, Peter P. McLaughlin, Paul N. Pearson, Ursula Röhl, Morgan F. Schaller, Jean M. Self-Trail, Appy Sluijs, Thomas Westerhold, James D. Wright, and James C. Zachos
Sci. Dril., 33, 47–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-33-47-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-33-47-2024, 2024
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The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is the closest geological analog to modern anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but its causes and the responses remain enigmatic. Coastal plain sediments can resolve this uncertainty, but their discontinuous nature requires numerous sites to constrain events. Workshop participants identified 10 drill sites that target the PETM and other interesting intervals. Our post-drilling research will provide valuable insights into Earth system responses.
Julia Campbell, Christopher J. Poulsen, Jiang Zhu, Jessica E. Tierney, and Jeremy Keeler
Clim. Past, 20, 495–522, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-495-2024, 2024
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In this study, we use climate modeling to investigate the relative impact of CO2 and orbit on Early Eocene (~ 55 million years ago) climate and compare our modeled results to fossil records to determine the context for the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, the most extreme hyperthermal in the Cenozoic. Our conclusions consider limitations and illustrate the importance of climate models when interpreting paleoclimate records in times of extreme warmth.
Sarah L. Bradley, Raymond Sellevold, Michele Petrini, Miren Vizcaino, Sotiria Georgiou, Jiang Zhu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Marcus Lofverstrom
Clim. Past, 20, 211–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, 2024
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was the most recent period with large ice sheets in Europe and North America. We provide a detailed analysis of surface mass and energy components for two time periods that bracket the LGM: 26 and 21 ka BP. We use an earth system model which has been adopted for modern ice sheets. We find that all Northern Hemisphere ice sheets have a positive surface mass balance apart from the British and Irish ice sheets and the North American ice sheet complex.
William Rush, Jean Self-Trail, Yang Zhang, Appy Sluijs, Henk Brinkhuis, James Zachos, James G. Ogg, and Marci Robinson
Clim. Past, 19, 1677–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1677-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1677-2023, 2023
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The Eocene contains several brief warming periods referred to as hyperthermals. Studying these events and how they varied between locations can help provide insight into our future warmer world. This study provides a characterization of two of these events in the mid-Atlantic region of the USA. The records of climate that we measured demonstrate significant changes during this time period, but the type and timing of these changes highlight the complexity of climatic changes.
Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Trude Eidhammer, Katherine Thayer-Calder, Jian Sun, Richard Forbes, Zachary McGraw, Jiang Zhu, Trude Storelvmo, and John Dennis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1735–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1735-2023, 2023
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Clouds are a critical part of weather and climate prediction. In this work, we document updates and corrections to the description of clouds used in several Earth system models. These updates include the ability to run the scheme on graphics processing units (GPUs), changes to the numerical description of precipitation, and a correction to the ice number. There are big improvements in the computational performance that can be achieved with GPU acceleration.
Michelle L. Maclennan, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Christine A. Shields, Andrew O. Hoffman, Nander Wever, Megan Thompson-Munson, Andrew C. Winters, Erin C. Pettit, Theodore A. Scambos, and Jonathan D. Wille
The Cryosphere, 17, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-865-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric rivers are air masses that transport large amounts of moisture and heat towards the poles. Here, we use a combination of weather observations and models to quantify the amount of snowfall caused by atmospheric rivers in West Antarctica which is about 10 % of the total snowfall each year. We then examine a unique event that occurred in early February 2020, when three atmospheric rivers made landfall over West Antarctica in rapid succession, leading to heavy snowfall and surface melt.
Martin Renoult, Navjit Sagoo, Jiang Zhu, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 19, 323–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023, 2023
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The relationship between the Last Glacial Maximum and the sensitivity of climate models to a doubling of CO2 can be used to estimate the true sensitivity of the Earth. However, this relationship has varied in successive model generations. In this study, we assess multiple processes at the Last Glacial Maximum which weaken this relationship. For example, how models respond to the presence of ice sheets is a large contributor of uncertainty.
Ryan A. Green, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Xavier Crosta, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 18, 845–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, 2022
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Climate models are used to predict future climate changes and as such, it is important to assess their performance in simulating past climate changes. We analyze seasonal sea-ice cover over the Southern Ocean simulated from numerical PMIP3, PMIP4 and LOVECLIM simulations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Comparing these simulations to proxy data, we provide improved estimates of LGM seasonal sea-ice cover. Our estimate of summer sea-ice extent is 20 %–30 % larger than previous estimates.
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Short summary
This study is motivated by the current anthropogenic-warming-forced transition in regional hydroclimate. We use observations and model simulations during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) to constrain the regional/local hydroclimate response. Our findings, based on multiple observational evidence within the context of model output, suggest a transition toward greater aridity and precipitation extremes in central California during the PETM.
This study is motivated by the current anthropogenic-warming-forced transition in regional...
