Articles | Volume 20, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1559-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1559-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Climate and ice sheet dynamics in Patagonia throughout marine isotope stages 2 and 3
Andrés Castillo-Llarena
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences and Faculty of Geosciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Department of Geography, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
Centro de Investigación Gaia Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile
Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
Jorge Bernales
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
Martín Jacques-Coper
Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
Center for Oceanographic Research COPAS COASTAL, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
Matthias Prange
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences and Faculty of Geosciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Irina Rogozhina
Department of Geography, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas (CEAZA), La Serena, Chile
Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
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Constantijn J. Berends, Victor Azizi, Jorge A. Bernales, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3635–3659, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3635-2025, 2025
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Ice-sheet models are computer programs that can simulate how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will evolve in the future. The accuracy of these models depends on their resolution: how small the details are that the model can resolve. We have created a model with a variable resolution that can resolve a lot of detail in areas where lots of changes happen in the ice and less detail in areas where the ice does not move so much. This makes the model both accurate and fast.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Jorjo Bernales, Constantijn J. Berends, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 283–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, 2025
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In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates in an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 m globally.
Matteo Willeit, Reinhard Calov, Stefanie Talento, Ralf Greve, Jorjo Bernales, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 597–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, 2024
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We present transient simulations of the last glacial inception with the coupled climate–ice sheet model CLIMBER-X showing a rapid increase in Northern Hemisphere ice sheet area and a sea level drop by ~ 35 m, with the vegetation feedback playing a key role. Overall, our simulations confirm and refine previous results showing that climate-vegetation–cryosphere–carbon cycle feedbacks play a fundamental role in the transition from interglacial to glacial states.
Brian R. Crow, Lev Tarasov, Michael Schulz, and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 20, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, 2024
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An abnormally warm period around 400,000 years ago is thought to have resulted in a large melt event for the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using a sequence of climate model simulations connected to an ice model, we estimate a 50 % melt of Greenland compared to today. Importantly, we explore how the exact methodology of connecting the temperatures and precipitation from the climate model to the ice sheet model can influence these results and show that common methods could introduce errors.
Reynier Bada-Diaz, Martín Jacques-Coper, Laura Farías, Diego Narváez, and Italo Masotti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2272, 2023
Preprint archived
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In this research we perform an analysis of the phenomena that induce favourable conditions for the occurrence of algal bloom events in a fjord in Chilean Patagonia. We propose an atmospheric-oceanographic mechanism: the passage of a low-pressure system modifies conditions in the water column and establishes optimal conditions for the occurrence of an extreme bloom event. Establishing such an atmosphere-ocean mechanism is important, given the predictive capabilities of these atmospheric systems.
Brian R. Crow, Matthias Prange, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 18, 775–792, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-775-2022, 2022
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To better understand the climate conditions which lead to extensive melting of the Greenland ice sheet, we used climate models to reconstruct the climate conditions of the warmest period of the last 800 000 years, which was centered around 410 000 years ago. Surprisingly, we found that atmospheric circulation changes may have acted to reduce the melt of the ice sheet rather than enhance it, despite the extensive warmth of the time.
Yongmei Gong and Irina Rogozhina
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-500, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-500, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The results from our snow evolution modeling of glacierized drainage basins in western Norway forced by bias-corrected, IPCC class regional climate model experiment CORDEX outputs reveal that the applicability of such forcing to directly drive local scale projections is not satisfactory. It is necessary to correct the original CORDEX datasets for bias against reference data that represent the current climate conditions of a specific area of interest for future projections.
Martim Mas e Braga, Richard Selwyn Jones, Jennifer C. H. Newall, Irina Rogozhina, Jane L. Andersen, Nathaniel A. Lifton, and Arjen P. Stroeven
The Cryosphere, 15, 4929–4947, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4929-2021, 2021
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Mountains higher than the ice surface are sampled to know when the ice reached the sampled elevation, which can be used to guide numerical models. This is important to understand how much ice will be lost by ice sheets in the future. We use a simple model to understand how ice flow around mountains affects the ice surface topography and show how much this influences results from field samples. We also show that models need a finer resolution over mountainous areas to better match field samples.
Martim Mas e Braga, Jorge Bernales, Matthias Prange, Arjen P. Stroeven, and Irina Rogozhina
The Cryosphere, 15, 459–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-459-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-459-2021, 2021
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We combine a computer model with different climate records to simulate how Antarctica responded to warming during marine isotope substage 11c, which can help understand Antarctica's natural drivers of change. We found that the regional climate warming of Antarctica seen in ice cores was necessary for the model to match the recorded sea level rise. A collapse of its western ice sheet is possible if a modest warming is sustained for ca. 4000 years, contributing 6.7 to 8.2 m to sea level rise.
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Short summary
During the last glacial period, the Patagonian Ice Sheet grew along the southern Andes, leaving marks on the landscape showing its former extents and timing. We use paleoclimate and ice sheet models to replicate its glacial history. We find that errors in the model-based ice sheet are likely induced by imprecise reconstructions of air temperature due to poorly resolved Andean topography in global climate models, while a fitting regional climate history is only captured by local sediment records.
During the last glacial period, the Patagonian Ice Sheet grew along the southern Andes, leaving...