Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1415-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1415-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Continuous synchronization of the Greenland ice-core and U–Th timescales using probabilistic inversion
Francesco Muschitiello
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK
Centre for Climate Repair, DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge, CB3 0WA, UK
Marco Antonio Aquino-Lopez
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK
Related authors
Francesco Muschitiello
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-116, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-116, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
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The first continuously measured transfer functions that quantify the age difference between the Greenland Ice-Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) and the U-Th timescale are presented. The transfer functions were generated using a novel probabilistic algorithm for the synchronization of proxy signals. The results greatly improve the accuracy and precision of previous synchronization estimates and reveal that the annual-layer counting error of GICC05 is less systematic than previously assumed.
Francesco Muschitiello, Matt O'Regan, Jannik Martens, Gabriel West, Örjan Gustafsson, and Martin Jakobsson
Geochronology, 2, 81–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2-81-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2-81-2020, 2020
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In this study we present a new marine chronology of the last ~30 000 years for a sediment core retrieved from the central Arctic Ocean. Our new chronology reveals substantially faster sedimentation rates during the end of the last glacial cycle, the Last Glacial Maximum, and deglaciation than previously reported, thus implying a substantial re-interpretation of paleoceanographic reconstructions from this sector of the Arctic Ocean.
Gabriel West, Darrell S. Kaufman, Francesco Muschitiello, Matthias Forwick, Jens Matthiessen, Jutta Wollenburg, and Matt O'Regan
Geochronology, 1, 53–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-1-53-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-1-53-2019, 2019
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We report amino acid racemization analyses of foraminifera from well-dated sediment cores from the Yermak Plateau, Arctic Ocean. Sample ages are compared with model predictions, revealing that the rates of racemization generally conform to a global compilation of racemization rates at deep-sea sites. These results highlight the need for further studies to test and explain the origin of the purportedly high rate of racemization indicated by previous analyses of central Arctic sediments.
Clint M. Miller, Gerald R. Dickens, Martin Jakobsson, Carina Johansson, Andrey Koshurnikov, Matt O'Regan, Francesco Muschitiello, Christian Stranne, and Carl-Magnus Mörth
Biogeosciences, 14, 2929–2953, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2929-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2929-2017, 2017
Short summary
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Continental slopes north of the East Siberian Sea are assumed to hold large amounts of methane. We present pore water chemistry from the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. These are among the first results generated from this vast climatically sensitive region, and they imply that abundant methane, including gas hydrates, do not characterize the East Siberian Sea slope or rise. This contradicts previous modeling and discussions, which due to the lack of data are almost entirely based assumption.
Christof Pearce, Aron Varhelyi, Stefan Wastegård, Francesco Muschitiello, Natalia Barrientos, Matt O'Regan, Thomas M. Cronin, Laura Gemery, Igor Semiletov, Jan Backman, and Martin Jakobsson
Clim. Past, 13, 303–316, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-303-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-303-2017, 2017
Short summary
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The eruption of the Alaskan Aniakchak volcano of 3.6 thousand years ago was one of the largest Holocene eruptions worldwide. The resulting ash is found in several Alaskan sites and as far as Newfoundland and Greenland. In this study, we found ash from the Aniakchak eruption in a marine sediment core from the western Chukchi Sea in the Arctic Ocean. Combined with radiocarbon dates on mollusks, the volcanic age marker is used to calculate the marine radiocarbon reservoir age at that time.
F. J. Davies, H. Renssen, M. Blaschek, and F. Muschitiello
Clim. Past, 11, 571–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, 2015
Francesco Muschitiello
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-116, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-116, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The first continuously measured transfer functions that quantify the age difference between the Greenland Ice-Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) and the U-Th timescale are presented. The transfer functions were generated using a novel probabilistic algorithm for the synchronization of proxy signals. The results greatly improve the accuracy and precision of previous synchronization estimates and reveal that the annual-layer counting error of GICC05 is less systematic than previously assumed.
Francesco Muschitiello, Matt O'Regan, Jannik Martens, Gabriel West, Örjan Gustafsson, and Martin Jakobsson
Geochronology, 2, 81–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2-81-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2-81-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we present a new marine chronology of the last ~30 000 years for a sediment core retrieved from the central Arctic Ocean. Our new chronology reveals substantially faster sedimentation rates during the end of the last glacial cycle, the Last Glacial Maximum, and deglaciation than previously reported, thus implying a substantial re-interpretation of paleoceanographic reconstructions from this sector of the Arctic Ocean.
Gabriel West, Darrell S. Kaufman, Francesco Muschitiello, Matthias Forwick, Jens Matthiessen, Jutta Wollenburg, and Matt O'Regan
Geochronology, 1, 53–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-1-53-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-1-53-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We report amino acid racemization analyses of foraminifera from well-dated sediment cores from the Yermak Plateau, Arctic Ocean. Sample ages are compared with model predictions, revealing that the rates of racemization generally conform to a global compilation of racemization rates at deep-sea sites. These results highlight the need for further studies to test and explain the origin of the purportedly high rate of racemization indicated by previous analyses of central Arctic sediments.
Clint M. Miller, Gerald R. Dickens, Martin Jakobsson, Carina Johansson, Andrey Koshurnikov, Matt O'Regan, Francesco Muschitiello, Christian Stranne, and Carl-Magnus Mörth
Biogeosciences, 14, 2929–2953, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2929-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2929-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Continental slopes north of the East Siberian Sea are assumed to hold large amounts of methane. We present pore water chemistry from the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. These are among the first results generated from this vast climatically sensitive region, and they imply that abundant methane, including gas hydrates, do not characterize the East Siberian Sea slope or rise. This contradicts previous modeling and discussions, which due to the lack of data are almost entirely based assumption.
Christof Pearce, Aron Varhelyi, Stefan Wastegård, Francesco Muschitiello, Natalia Barrientos, Matt O'Regan, Thomas M. Cronin, Laura Gemery, Igor Semiletov, Jan Backman, and Martin Jakobsson
Clim. Past, 13, 303–316, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-303-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-303-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The eruption of the Alaskan Aniakchak volcano of 3.6 thousand years ago was one of the largest Holocene eruptions worldwide. The resulting ash is found in several Alaskan sites and as far as Newfoundland and Greenland. In this study, we found ash from the Aniakchak eruption in a marine sediment core from the western Chukchi Sea in the Arctic Ocean. Combined with radiocarbon dates on mollusks, the volcanic age marker is used to calculate the marine radiocarbon reservoir age at that time.
F. J. Davies, H. Renssen, M. Blaschek, and F. Muschitiello
Clim. Past, 11, 571–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, 2015
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Ice Cores | Timescale: Millenial/D-O
Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions
The Temporal Phasing of Rapid Dansgaard–Oeschger Warming Events Cannot Be Reliably Determined
Synchronizing ice-core and U ∕ Th timescales in the Last Glacial Maximum using Hulu Cave 14C and new 10Be measurements from Greenland and Antarctica
Assessing the statistical uniqueness of the Younger Dryas: a robust multivariate analysis
The SP19 chronology for the South Pole Ice Core – Part 2: gas chronology, Δage, and smoothing of atmospheric records
Decadal-scale progression of the onset of Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives
Climatic and insolation control on the high-resolution total air content in the NGRIP ice core
Variability of sulfate signal in ice core records based on five replicate cores
Simulating ice core 10Be on the glacial–interglacial timescale
Evidence for a three-phase sequence during Heinrich Stadial 4 using a multiproxy approach based on Greenland ice core records
Dansgaard–Oeschger events: bifurcation points in the climate system
An automated approach for annual layer counting in ice cores
Duration of Greenland Stadial 22 and ice-gas Δage from counting of annual layers in Greenland NGRIP ice core
Past surface temperatures at the NorthGRIP drill site from the difference in firn diffusion of water isotopes
Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ18O data
Takahito Mitsui and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 20, 683–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024, 2024
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In general, the variance and short-lag autocorrelations of the fluctuations increase in a system approaching a critical transition. Using these indicators, we identify statistical precursor signals for the Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling events recorded in two climatic proxies of three Greenland ice core records. We then provide a dynamical systems theory that bridges the gap between observing statistical precursor signals and the physical precursor signs empirically known in paleoclimate research.
John Slattery, Louise C. Sime, Francesco Muschitiello, and Keno Riechers
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2496, 2023
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Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a series of past abrupt climate change events, during which the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean in the North Atlantic underwent rapid changes. One current topic of interest is the order in which these different changes occurred, which remains unknown. In this work, we find that the current best method used to investigate this topic is subject to substantial bias. This implies that it is not possible to reliably determine the order of the different changes.
Giulia Sinnl, Florian Adolphi, Marcus Christl, Kees C. Welten, Thomas Woodruff, Marc Caffee, Anders Svensson, Raimund Muscheler, and Sune Olander Rasmussen
Clim. Past, 19, 1153–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1153-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1153-2023, 2023
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The record of past climate is preserved by several archives from different regions, such as ice cores from Greenland or Antarctica or speleothems from caves such as the Hulu Cave in China. In this study, these archives are aligned by taking advantage of the globally synchronous production of cosmogenic radionuclides. This produces a new perspective on the global climate in the period between 20 000 and 25 000 years ago.
Henry Nye and Alan Condron
Clim. Past, 17, 1409–1421, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1409-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1409-2021, 2021
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This paper analyzes the uniqueness of a paleoclimate event entitled the Bølling–Allerød Younger Dryas (BA/YD) through a statistical lens in order to better understand its relation to other events similar to it. Furthermore, we implement a novel statistical method entitled PCOut in order to measure the BA/YD's various elements of uniqueness in existing paleoclimate records. We suggest future use of this method for paleoclimate research that aims to assess uniqueness across multiple criteria.
Jenna A. Epifanio, Edward J. Brook, Christo Buizert, Jon S. Edwards, Todd A. Sowers, Emma C. Kahle, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Eric J. Steig, Dominic A. Winski, Erich C. Osterberg, Tyler J. Fudge, Murat Aydin, Ekaterina Hood, Michael Kalk, Karl J. Kreutz, David G. Ferris, and Joshua A. Kennedy
Clim. Past, 16, 2431–2444, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2431-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2431-2020, 2020
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A new ice core drilled at the South Pole provides a 54 000-year paleo-environmental record including the composition of the past atmosphere. This paper describes the gas chronology for the South Pole ice core, based on a high-resolution methane record. The new gas chronology, in combination with the existing ice age scale from Winski et al. (2019), allows a model-independent reconstruction of the delta age record.
Tobias Erhardt, Emilie Capron, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Simon Schüpbach, Matthias Bigler, Florian Adolphi, and Hubertus Fischer
Clim. Past, 15, 811–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-811-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-811-2019, 2019
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The cause of the rapid warming events documented in proxy records across the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial has been a long-standing puzzle in paleo-climate research. Here, we use high-resolution ice-core data from to cores in Greenland to investigate the progression during the onset of these events on multi-annual timescales to test their plausible triggers. We show that atmospheric circulation changes preceded the warming in Greenland and the collapse of the sea ice by a decade.
Niklas Boers, Bedartha Goswami, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 13, 1169–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017, 2017
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We introduce a Bayesian framework to represent layer-counted proxy records as probability distributions on error-free time axes, accounting for both proxy and dating errors. Our method is applied to NGRIP δ18O data, revealing that the cumulative dating errors lead to substantial uncertainties for the older parts of the record. Applying our method to the widely used radiocarbon comparison curve derived from varved sediments of Lake Suigetsu provides the complete uncertainties of this curve.
Olivier Eicher, Matthias Baumgartner, Adrian Schilt, Jochen Schmitt, Jakob Schwander, Thomas F. Stocker, and Hubertus Fischer
Clim. Past, 12, 1979–1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1979-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1979-2016, 2016
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A new high-resolution total air content record over the NGRIP ice core, spanning 0.3–120 kyr is presented. In agreement with Antarctic ice cores, we find a strong local insolation signature but also 3–5 % decreases in total air content as a local response to Dansgaard–Oeschger events, which can only partly be explained by changes in surface pressure and temperature. Accordingly, a dynamic response of firnification to rapid climate changes on the Greenland ice sheet must have occurred.
E. Gautier, J. Savarino, J. Erbland, A. Lanciki, and P. Possenti
Clim. Past, 12, 103–113, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-103-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-103-2016, 2016
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We evaluate the local-scale variability of a sulfate profile at a low-accumulation site (Dome C, Antarctica) to assess the representativeness of one ice core for volcanic reconstructions. Peak statistical occurrence, depth and flux variability are evaluated from five cores. Due to local-scale variability, 64 volcanic peaks can be identified by a five-cores analysis, while only half of them can be assessed from two cores. Using five cores, the uncertainty of the mean flux is reduced to 29 %.
C. Elsässer, D. Wagenbach, I. Levin, A. Stanzick, M. Christl, A. Wallner, S. Kipfstuhl, I. K. Seierstad, H. Wershofen, and J. Dibb
Clim. Past, 11, 115–133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-115-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-115-2015, 2015
M. Guillevic, L. Bazin, A. Landais, C. Stowasser, V. Masson-Delmotte, T. Blunier, F. Eynaud, S. Falourd, E. Michel, B. Minster, T. Popp, F. Prié, and B. M. Vinther
Clim. Past, 10, 2115–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2115-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2115-2014, 2014
A. A. Cimatoribus, S. S. Drijfhout, V. Livina, and G. van der Schrier
Clim. Past, 9, 323–333, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-323-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-323-2013, 2013
M. Winstrup, A. M. Svensson, S. O. Rasmussen, O. Winther, E. J. Steig, and A. E. Axelrod
Clim. Past, 8, 1881–1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1881-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1881-2012, 2012
P. Vallelonga, G. Bertagna, T. Blunier, H. A. Kjær, T. J. Popp, S. O. Rasmussen, J. P. Steffensen, C. Stowasser, A. S. Svensson, E. Warming, M. Winstrup, M. Bigler, and S. Kipfstuhl
Clim. Past, 8, 1839–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1839-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1839-2012, 2012
S. B. Simonsen, S. J. Johnsen, T. J. Popp, B. M. Vinther, V. Gkinis, and H. C. Steen-Larsen
Clim. Past, 7, 1327–1335, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1327-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1327-2011, 2011
D. Peavoy and C. Franzke
Clim. Past, 6, 787–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010, 2010
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Co-editor-in-chief
The paper entitled "Continuous synchronization of the Greenland ice-core and U-Th timescales using probabilistic inversion" presents a first and new continuously measured transfer function that quantifies the age difference between the GICC05 and the U-Th timescale during the last ice age. The transfer function was estimated using a new automated algorithm for proxy data alignment. The approach was the subject of much discussion with the various referees who evaluated it, but it is at least described clearly enough for the community to form its own opinion and henceforth use it.
The paper entitled "Continuous synchronization of the Greenland ice-core and U-Th timescales...
Short summary
The first continuously measured transfer functions that quantify the age difference between the Greenland ice-core chronology 2005 (GICC05) and the U–Th timescale are presented. The transfer functions were generated using a novel probabilistic algorithm for the synchronization of proxy signals. The results greatly improve the accuracy and precision of previous synchronization estimates and reveal that the annual-layer counting error of GICC05 is less systematic than previously assumed.
The first continuously measured transfer functions that quantify the age difference between the...