Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-633-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-633-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Mar 2021
Research article |
| 11 Mar 2021
| 11 Mar 2021
Simulation of ash clouds after a Laacher See-type eruption
Ulrike Niemeier
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
The Atmosphere in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Felix Riede
Department of Archaeology and Heritage Studies, Aarhus University Moesgøard, 8270 Højbjerg, Denmark
Claudia Timmreck
The Atmosphere in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Related authors
Katharina Perny, Timofei Sukhodolov, Ales Kuchar, Pavle Arsenovic, Bernadette Rosati, Christoph Brühl, Sandip S. Dhomse, Andrin Jörimann, Anton Laakso, Graham Mann, Ulrike Niemeier, Giovanni Pitari, Ilaria Quaglia, Takashi Sekiya, Kengo Sudo, Claudia Timmreck, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, and Harald E. Rieder
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5915, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Major volcanic eruptions, such as the one of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991, can inject large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. The resulting aerosol cloud affects stratospheric temperature and thereby middle atmospheric dynamics and chemistry. Here we investigate similarities and differences across an ensemble of climate models in reproducing the stratospheric temperature signal following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption.
Wolfgang A. Müller, Stephan Lorenz, Trang V. Pham, Andrea Schneidereit, Renate Brokopf, Victor Brovkin, Nils Brüggemann, Fatemeh Chegini, Dietmar Dommenget, Kristina Fröhlich, Barbara Früh, Veronika Gayler, Helmuth Haak, Stefan Hagemann, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann Jungclaus, Martin Köhler, Peter Korn, Luis Kornblueh, Clarissa A. Kroll, Julian Krüger, Karel Castro-Morales, Ulrike Niemeier, Holger Pohlmann, Iuliia Polkova, Roland Potthast, Thomas Riddick, Manuel Schlund, Tobias Stacke, Roland Wirth, Dakuan Yu, and Jochem Marotzke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 9385–9415, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9385-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9385-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a new Earth System model configuration framed into the ICON architecture, which provides the baseline for the next generation of climate predictions and projections (hereafter ICON XPP). Two resolutions of ICON XPP are presented that show high runtime performances making it suitable to run long integrations and large-ensemble experiments. ICON XPP similarly perform to CMIP6-class of climate models making it a good basis for climate forecasts and projections, and climate research.
Clarissa A. Kroll, Robert C. Jnglin Wills, Luis Kornblueh, Ulrike Niemeier, and Andrea Schneidereit
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 16915–16943, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16915-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16915-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is a prominent precipitation bias in climate models. We demonstrate its persistence from a resolution of 160 km up to 5 km. Its root cause lies in biased moisture transport from the subtropics to the inner tropics reducing convection and weakening tropical circulation. Increasing the surface wind speed addresses the bias, but deteriorates the global circulation. This highlights the importance of resolution hierarchies and parametrization development.
Isobel M. Parry, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Olivier Boucher, Peter M. Cox, James M. Haywood, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4889, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) aims to counteract global warming by injecting aerosols into the stratosphere, thereby increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. Despite concerns that SAI could reduce vegetation productivity by reducing the amount of sunlight at the Earth's surface and shifting rainfall patterns, SAI simulations project an increase in land carbon storage globally and in the Amazon compared to a moderate warming scenario, primarily due to increased CO2 fertilisation.
Anna Lange, Ulrike Niemeier, Alexei Rozanov, and Christian von Savigny
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 11673–11688, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11673-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11673-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper investigates whether it is possible to observe continuous injections of 1 and 2 Tg S y-1 (sulfur per year) into the stratosphere with the currently active satellite occultation instruments. The calculations show that, considering the natural variability and the assumptions made here, the stratospheric aerosols formed from continuous emissions of 1 and 2 Tg S y-1 in the quasi-steady-state phase can be detected, which is not the case in the first month of the 2-year initial phase.
Christina V. Brodowsky, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Valentina Aquila, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Michael Höpfner, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Ulrike Niemeier, Giovanni Pitari, Ilaria Quaglia, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Takashi Sekiya, Simone Tilmes, Claudia Timmreck, Sandro Vattioni, Daniele Visioni, Pengfei Yu, Yunqian Zhu, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5513–5548, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The aerosol layer is an essential part of the climate system. We characterize the sulfur budget in a volcanically quiescent (background) setting, with a special focus on the sulfate aerosol layer using, for the first time, a multi-model approach. The aim is to identify weak points in the representation of the atmospheric sulfur budget in an intercomparison of nine state-of-the-art coupled global circulation models.
Anton Laakso, Daniele Visioni, Ulrike Niemeier, Simone Tilmes, and Harri Kokkola
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 405–427, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-405-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-405-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the second in a two-part series in which we explore the dependency of the impacts of stratospheric sulfur injections on both the model employed and the strategy of injection utilized. The study uncovers uncertainties associated with these techniques to cool climate, highlighting how the simulated climate impacts are dependent on both the selected model and the magnitude of the injections. We also show that estimating precipitation impacts of aerosol injection is a complex task.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Hauke Schmidt, Sebastian Rast, Jiawei Bao, Amrit Cassim, Shih-Wei Fang, Diego Jimenez-de la Cuesta, Paul Keil, Lukas Kluft, Clarissa Kroll, Theresa Lang, Ulrike Niemeier, Andrea Schneidereit, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1563–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1563-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1563-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A recent development in numerical simulations of the global atmosphere is the increase in horizontal resolution to grid spacings of a few kilometers. However, the vertical grid spacing of these models has not been reduced at the same rate as the horizontal grid spacing. Here, we assess the effects of much finer vertical grid spacings, in particular the impacts on cloud quantities and the atmospheric energy balance.
Felix Wrana, Ulrike Niemeier, Larry W. Thomason, Sandra Wallis, and Christian von Savigny
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9725–9743, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9725-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9725-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The stratospheric aerosol layer is a naturally occurring and permanent layer of aerosol, in this case very small droplets of mostly sulfuric acid and water, that has a cooling effect on our climate. To quantify this effect and for our general understanding of stratospheric microphysical processes, knowledge of the size of those aerosol particles is needed. Using satellite measurements and atmospheric models we show that some volcanic eruptions can lead to on average smaller aerosol sizes.
Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, Simone Tilmes, Jim Haywood, Olivier Boucher, Mark Lawrence, Peter Irvine, Ulrike Niemeier, Lili Xia, Gabriel Chiodo, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, John C. Moore, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5149–5176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Geoengineering indicates methods aiming to reduce the temperature of the planet by means of reflecting back a part of the incoming radiation before it reaches the surface or allowing more of the planetary radiation to escape into space. It aims to produce modelling experiments that are easy to reproduce and compare with different climate models, in order to understand the potential impacts of these techniques. Here we assess its past successes and failures and talk about its future.
Yangxin Chen, Duoying Ji, Qian Zhang, John C. Moore, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 55–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-55-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-55-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a way of counteracting the warming effects of increasing greenhouse gases by reflecting solar radiation. This work shows that solar geoengineering can slow down the northern-high-latitude permafrost degradation but cannot preserve the permafrost ecosystem as that under a climate of the same warming level without solar geoengineering.
Ilaria Quaglia, Claudia Timmreck, Ulrike Niemeier, Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Christina Brodowsky, Christoph Brühl, Sandip S. Dhomse, Henning Franke, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Eugene Rozanov, and Timofei Sukhodolov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 921–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The last very large explosive volcanic eruption we have measurements for is the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. It is therefore often used as a benchmark for climate models' ability to reproduce these kinds of events. Here, we compare available measurements with the results from multiple experiments conducted with climate models interactively simulating the aerosol cloud formation.
Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Andy Jones, James Haywood, Roland Séférian, Pierre Nabat, Olivier Boucher, Ewa Monica Bednarz, and Ulrike Niemeier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4557–4579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the impacts of climate interventions, using stratospheric sulfate aerosol and solar dimming on stratospheric ozone, based on three Earth system models with interactive stratospheric chemistry. The climate interventions have been applied to a high emission (baseline) scenario in order to reach global surface temperatures of a medium emission scenario. We find significant increases and decreases in total column ozone, depending on regions and seasons.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase.
Debra K. Weisenstein, Daniele Visioni, Henning Franke, Ulrike Niemeier, Sandro Vattioni, Gabriel Chiodo, Thomas Peter, and David W. Keith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2955–2973, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores a potential method of geoengineering that could be used to slow the rate of change of climate over decadal scales. We use three climate models to explore how injections of accumulation-mode sulfuric acid aerosol change the large-scale stratospheric particle size distribution and radiative forcing response for the chosen scenarios. Radiative forcing per unit sulfur injected and relative to the change in aerosol burden is larger with particulate than with SO2 injections.
Anton Laakso, Ulrike Niemeier, Daniele Visioni, Simone Tilmes, and Harri Kokkola
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 93–118, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-93-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-93-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The use of different spatio-temporal sulfur injection strategies with different magnitudes to create an artificial reflective aerosol layer to cool the climate is studied using sectional and modal aerosol schemes in a climate model. There are significant differences in the results depending on the aerosol microphysical module used. Different spatio-temporal injection strategies have a significant impact on the magnitude and zonal distribution of radiative forcing and atmospheric dynamics.
Elizaveta Malinina, Alexei Rozanov, Ulrike Niemeier, Sandra Wallis, Carlo Arosio, Felix Wrana, Claudia Timmreck, Christian von Savigny, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14871–14891, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14871-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14871-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the paper, changes in the stratospheric aerosol loading after the 2018 Ambae eruption were analyzed using OMPS-LP observations. The eruption was also simulated with the MAECHAM5-HAM global climate model. Generally, the model and observations agree very well. We attribute the good consistency of the results to a precisely determined altitude and mass of the volcanic injection, as well as nudging of the meteorological data. The radiative forcing from the eruption was estimated to be −0.13 W m−2.
Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michou Martine, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10039–10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A new set of simulations is used to investigate commonalities, differences and sources of uncertainty when simulating the injection of SO2 in the stratosphere in order to mitigate the effects of climate change (solar geoengineering). The models differ in how they simulate the aerosols and how they spread around the stratosphere, resulting in differences in projected regional impacts. Overall, however, the models agree that aerosols have the potential to mitigate the warming produced by GHGs.
Henning Franke, Ulrike Niemeier, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8615–8635, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol modification (SAM) can alter the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Our simulations with two different models show that the characteristics of the QBO response are primarily determined by the meridional structure of the aerosol-induced heating. Therefore, the QBO response to SAM depends primarily on the location of injection, while injection type and rate act to scale the specific response. Our results have important implications for evaluating adverse side effects of SAM.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4231–4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates multi-model response to idealized geoengineering (high CO2 with solar reduction) across two different generations of climate models. We find that, with the exception of a few cases, the results are unchanged between the different generations. This gives us confidence that broad conclusions about the response to idealized geoengineering are robust.
Margot Clyne, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael J. Mills, Myriam Khodri, William Ball, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Nicolas Lebas, Graham Mann, Lauren Marshall, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Fiona Tummon, Davide Zanchettin, Yunqian Zhu, and Owen B. Toon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3317–3343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study finds how and why five state-of-the-art global climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosols differ when simulating the aftermath of large volcanic injections as part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP). We identify and explain the consequences of significant disparities in the underlying physics and chemistry currently in some of the models, which are problems likely not unique to the models participating in this study.
Katharina Perny, Timofei Sukhodolov, Ales Kuchar, Pavle Arsenovic, Bernadette Rosati, Christoph Brühl, Sandip S. Dhomse, Andrin Jörimann, Anton Laakso, Graham Mann, Ulrike Niemeier, Giovanni Pitari, Ilaria Quaglia, Takashi Sekiya, Kengo Sudo, Claudia Timmreck, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, and Harald E. Rieder
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5915, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Major volcanic eruptions, such as the one of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991, can inject large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. The resulting aerosol cloud affects stratospheric temperature and thereby middle atmospheric dynamics and chemistry. Here we investigate similarities and differences across an ensemble of climate models in reproducing the stratospheric temperature signal following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption.
Wolfgang A. Müller, Stephan Lorenz, Trang V. Pham, Andrea Schneidereit, Renate Brokopf, Victor Brovkin, Nils Brüggemann, Fatemeh Chegini, Dietmar Dommenget, Kristina Fröhlich, Barbara Früh, Veronika Gayler, Helmuth Haak, Stefan Hagemann, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann Jungclaus, Martin Köhler, Peter Korn, Luis Kornblueh, Clarissa A. Kroll, Julian Krüger, Karel Castro-Morales, Ulrike Niemeier, Holger Pohlmann, Iuliia Polkova, Roland Potthast, Thomas Riddick, Manuel Schlund, Tobias Stacke, Roland Wirth, Dakuan Yu, and Jochem Marotzke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 9385–9415, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9385-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9385-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a new Earth System model configuration framed into the ICON architecture, which provides the baseline for the next generation of climate predictions and projections (hereafter ICON XPP). Two resolutions of ICON XPP are presented that show high runtime performances making it suitable to run long integrations and large-ensemble experiments. ICON XPP similarly perform to CMIP6-class of climate models making it a good basis for climate forecasts and projections, and climate research.
Clarissa A. Kroll, Robert C. Jnglin Wills, Luis Kornblueh, Ulrike Niemeier, and Andrea Schneidereit
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 16915–16943, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16915-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16915-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is a prominent precipitation bias in climate models. We demonstrate its persistence from a resolution of 160 km up to 5 km. Its root cause lies in biased moisture transport from the subtropics to the inner tropics reducing convection and weakening tropical circulation. Increasing the surface wind speed addresses the bias, but deteriorates the global circulation. This highlights the importance of resolution hierarchies and parametrization development.
Isobel M. Parry, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Olivier Boucher, Peter M. Cox, James M. Haywood, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4889, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) aims to counteract global warming by injecting aerosols into the stratosphere, thereby increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. Despite concerns that SAI could reduce vegetation productivity by reducing the amount of sunlight at the Earth's surface and shifting rainfall patterns, SAI simulations project an increase in land carbon storage globally and in the Amazon compared to a moderate warming scenario, primarily due to increased CO2 fertilisation.
Anna Lange, Ulrike Niemeier, Alexei Rozanov, and Christian von Savigny
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 11673–11688, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11673-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11673-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper investigates whether it is possible to observe continuous injections of 1 and 2 Tg S y-1 (sulfur per year) into the stratosphere with the currently active satellite occultation instruments. The calculations show that, considering the natural variability and the assumptions made here, the stratospheric aerosols formed from continuous emissions of 1 and 2 Tg S y-1 in the quasi-steady-state phase can be detected, which is not the case in the first month of the 2-year initial phase.
Moritz Günther, Hauke Schmidt, Claudia Timmreck, and Matthew Toohey
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7203–7225, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol has been shown to cause pronounced cooling in the tropical Indian and western Pacific oceans. Using a climate model, we show that this arises from enhanced meridional energy export via the stratosphere. The aerosol causes stratospheric heating and thus an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation that accomplishes this transport. Our findings highlight the importance of circulation adjustments and surface perspectives on forcing for understanding temperature responses.
Jean-Paul Vernier, Thomas J. Aubry, Claudia Timmreck, Anja Schmidt, Lieven Clarisse, Fred Prata, Nicolas Theys, Andrew T. Prata, Graham Mann, Hyundeok Choi, Simon Carn, Richard Rigby, Susan C. Loughlin, and John A. Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5765–5782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5765-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2019 Raikoke eruption (Kamchatka, Russia) generated one of the largest emissions of particles and gases into the stratosphere since the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The Volcano Response (VolRes) initiative, an international effort, provided a platform for the community to share information about this eruption and assess its climate impact. The eruption led to a minor global surface cooling of 0.02 °C in 2020 which is negligible relative to warming induced by human greenhouse gas emissions.
Christina V. Brodowsky, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Valentina Aquila, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Michael Höpfner, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Ulrike Niemeier, Giovanni Pitari, Ilaria Quaglia, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Takashi Sekiya, Simone Tilmes, Claudia Timmreck, Sandro Vattioni, Daniele Visioni, Pengfei Yu, Yunqian Zhu, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5513–5548, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The aerosol layer is an essential part of the climate system. We characterize the sulfur budget in a volcanically quiescent (background) setting, with a special focus on the sulfate aerosol layer using, for the first time, a multi-model approach. The aim is to identify weak points in the representation of the atmospheric sulfur budget in an intercomparison of nine state-of-the-art coupled global circulation models.
Anton Laakso, Daniele Visioni, Ulrike Niemeier, Simone Tilmes, and Harri Kokkola
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 405–427, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-405-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-405-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the second in a two-part series in which we explore the dependency of the impacts of stratospheric sulfur injections on both the model employed and the strategy of injection utilized. The study uncovers uncertainties associated with these techniques to cool climate, highlighting how the simulated climate impacts are dependent on both the selected model and the magnitude of the injections. We also show that estimating precipitation impacts of aerosol injection is a complex task.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Hauke Schmidt, Sebastian Rast, Jiawei Bao, Amrit Cassim, Shih-Wei Fang, Diego Jimenez-de la Cuesta, Paul Keil, Lukas Kluft, Clarissa Kroll, Theresa Lang, Ulrike Niemeier, Andrea Schneidereit, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1563–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1563-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1563-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A recent development in numerical simulations of the global atmosphere is the increase in horizontal resolution to grid spacings of a few kilometers. However, the vertical grid spacing of these models has not been reduced at the same rate as the horizontal grid spacing. Here, we assess the effects of much finer vertical grid spacings, in particular the impacts on cloud quantities and the atmospheric energy balance.
Felix Wrana, Ulrike Niemeier, Larry W. Thomason, Sandra Wallis, and Christian von Savigny
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9725–9743, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9725-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9725-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The stratospheric aerosol layer is a naturally occurring and permanent layer of aerosol, in this case very small droplets of mostly sulfuric acid and water, that has a cooling effect on our climate. To quantify this effect and for our general understanding of stratospheric microphysical processes, knowledge of the size of those aerosol particles is needed. Using satellite measurements and atmospheric models we show that some volcanic eruptions can lead to on average smaller aerosol sizes.
Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, Simone Tilmes, Jim Haywood, Olivier Boucher, Mark Lawrence, Peter Irvine, Ulrike Niemeier, Lili Xia, Gabriel Chiodo, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, John C. Moore, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5149–5176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Geoengineering indicates methods aiming to reduce the temperature of the planet by means of reflecting back a part of the incoming radiation before it reaches the surface or allowing more of the planetary radiation to escape into space. It aims to produce modelling experiments that are easy to reproduce and compare with different climate models, in order to understand the potential impacts of these techniques. Here we assess its past successes and failures and talk about its future.
Evelien van Dijk, Ingar Mørkestøl Gundersen, Anna de Bode, Helge Høeg, Kjetil Loftsgarden, Frode Iversen, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, and Kirstin Krüger
Clim. Past, 19, 357–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-357-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-6th century was one of the coldest periods of the last 2000 years as characterized by great societal changes. Here, we study the effect of the volcanic double event in 536 CE and 540 CE on climate and society in southern Norway. The combined climate and growing degree day models and high-resolution pollen and archaeological records reveal that the northern and western sites are vulnerable to crop failure with possible abandonment of farms, whereas the southeastern site is more resilient.
Yangxin Chen, Duoying Ji, Qian Zhang, John C. Moore, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 55–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-55-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-55-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a way of counteracting the warming effects of increasing greenhouse gases by reflecting solar radiation. This work shows that solar geoengineering can slow down the northern-high-latitude permafrost degradation but cannot preserve the permafrost ecosystem as that under a climate of the same warming level without solar geoengineering.
Ilaria Quaglia, Claudia Timmreck, Ulrike Niemeier, Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Christina Brodowsky, Christoph Brühl, Sandip S. Dhomse, Henning Franke, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Eugene Rozanov, and Timofei Sukhodolov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 921–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The last very large explosive volcanic eruption we have measurements for is the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. It is therefore often used as a benchmark for climate models' ability to reproduce these kinds of events. Here, we compare available measurements with the results from multiple experiments conducted with climate models interactively simulating the aerosol cloud formation.
Shih-Wei Fang, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, Kirstin Krüger, and Hauke Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1535–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The early 19th century was the coldest period over the past 500 years, when strong tropical volcanic events and a solar minimum coincided. This study quantifies potential surface cooling from the solar and volcanic forcing in the early 19th century with large ensemble simulations, and identifies the regions that their impacts cannot be simply additive. The cooling perspective of Arctic amplification exists in both solar and post-volcano period with the albedo feedback as the main contribution.
Evelien van Dijk, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Claudia Timmreck, and Kirstin Krüger
Clim. Past, 18, 1601–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A double volcanic eruption in 536 and 540 CE caused one of the coldest decades during the last 2000 years. We analyzed new climate model simulations from that period and found a cooling of up to 2°C and a sea-ice extent up to 200 km further south. Complex interactions between sea ice and ocean circulation lead to a reduction in the northward ocean heat transport, which makes the sea ice extend further south; this in turn leads to a surface cooling up to 20 years after the eruptions.
Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Andy Jones, James Haywood, Roland Séférian, Pierre Nabat, Olivier Boucher, Ewa Monica Bednarz, and Ulrike Niemeier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4557–4579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the impacts of climate interventions, using stratospheric sulfate aerosol and solar dimming on stratospheric ozone, based on three Earth system models with interactive stratospheric chemistry. The climate interventions have been applied to a high emission (baseline) scenario in order to reach global surface temperatures of a medium emission scenario. We find significant increases and decreases in total column ozone, depending on regions and seasons.
Davide Zanchettin, Claudia Timmreck, Myriam Khodri, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Manabu Abe, Slimane Bekki, Jason Cole, Shih-Wei Fang, Wuhu Feng, Gabriele Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Nicolas Lebas, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Landon Rieger, Alan Robock, Sara Rubinetti, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Helen Weierbach
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2265–2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides metadata and first analyses of the volc-pinatubo-full experiment of CMIP6-VolMIP. Results from six Earth system models reveal significant differences in radiative flux anomalies that trace back to different implementations of volcanic forcing. Surface responses are in contrast overall consistent across models, reflecting the large spread due to internal variability. A second phase of VolMIP shall consider both aspects toward improved protocol for volc-pinatubo-full.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase.
Debra K. Weisenstein, Daniele Visioni, Henning Franke, Ulrike Niemeier, Sandro Vattioni, Gabriel Chiodo, Thomas Peter, and David W. Keith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2955–2973, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores a potential method of geoengineering that could be used to slow the rate of change of climate over decadal scales. We use three climate models to explore how injections of accumulation-mode sulfuric acid aerosol change the large-scale stratospheric particle size distribution and radiative forcing response for the chosen scenarios. Radiative forcing per unit sulfur injected and relative to the change in aerosol burden is larger with particulate than with SO2 injections.
Anton Laakso, Ulrike Niemeier, Daniele Visioni, Simone Tilmes, and Harri Kokkola
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 93–118, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-93-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-93-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The use of different spatio-temporal sulfur injection strategies with different magnitudes to create an artificial reflective aerosol layer to cool the climate is studied using sectional and modal aerosol schemes in a climate model. There are significant differences in the results depending on the aerosol microphysical module used. Different spatio-temporal injection strategies have a significant impact on the magnitude and zonal distribution of radiative forcing and atmospheric dynamics.
Elizaveta Malinina, Alexei Rozanov, Ulrike Niemeier, Sandra Wallis, Carlo Arosio, Felix Wrana, Claudia Timmreck, Christian von Savigny, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14871–14891, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14871-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14871-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the paper, changes in the stratospheric aerosol loading after the 2018 Ambae eruption were analyzed using OMPS-LP observations. The eruption was also simulated with the MAECHAM5-HAM global climate model. Generally, the model and observations agree very well. We attribute the good consistency of the results to a precisely determined altitude and mass of the volcanic injection, as well as nudging of the meteorological data. The radiative forcing from the eruption was estimated to be −0.13 W m−2.
Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Davide Zanchettin, Stefan Brönnimann, Elin Lundstad, and Rob Wilson
Clim. Past, 17, 1455–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The 1809 eruption is one of the most recent unidentified volcanic eruptions with a global climate impact. We demonstrate that climate model simulations of the 1809 eruption show generally good agreement with many large-scale temperature reconstructions and early instrumental records for a range of radiative forcing estimates. In terms of explaining the spatially heterogeneous and temporally delayed Northern Hemisphere cooling suggested by tree-ring networks, the investigation remains open.
Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michou Martine, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10039–10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A new set of simulations is used to investigate commonalities, differences and sources of uncertainty when simulating the injection of SO2 in the stratosphere in order to mitigate the effects of climate change (solar geoengineering). The models differ in how they simulate the aerosols and how they spread around the stratosphere, resulting in differences in projected regional impacts. Overall, however, the models agree that aerosols have the potential to mitigate the warming produced by GHGs.
Henning Franke, Ulrike Niemeier, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8615–8635, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol modification (SAM) can alter the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Our simulations with two different models show that the characteristics of the QBO response are primarily determined by the meridional structure of the aerosol-induced heating. Therefore, the QBO response to SAM depends primarily on the location of injection, while injection type and rate act to scale the specific response. Our results have important implications for evaluating adverse side effects of SAM.
Clarissa Alicia Kroll, Sally Dacie, Alon Azoulay, Hauke Schmidt, and Claudia Timmreck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6565–6591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6565-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6565-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic forcing is counteracted by stratospheric water vapor (SWV) entering the stratosphere as a consequence of aerosol-induced cold-point warming. We find that depending on the emission strength, aerosol profile height and season of the eruption, up to 4 % of the tropical aerosol forcing can be counterbalanced. A power function relationship between cold-point warming/SWV forcing and AOD in the yearly average is found, allowing us to estimate the SWV forcing for comparable eruptions.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4231–4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates multi-model response to idealized geoengineering (high CO2 with solar reduction) across two different generations of climate models. We find that, with the exception of a few cases, the results are unchanged between the different generations. This gives us confidence that broad conclusions about the response to idealized geoengineering are robust.
Margot Clyne, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael J. Mills, Myriam Khodri, William Ball, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Nicolas Lebas, Graham Mann, Lauren Marshall, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Fiona Tummon, Davide Zanchettin, Yunqian Zhu, and Owen B. Toon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3317–3343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study finds how and why five state-of-the-art global climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosols differ when simulating the aftermath of large volcanic injections as part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP). We identify and explain the consequences of significant disparities in the underlying physics and chemistry currently in some of the models, which are problems likely not unique to the models participating in this study.
Cited articles
Abbott, P. M. and Davies, S. M.: Volcanism and the Greenland ice-cores: the tephra record, Earth-Sci. Rev., 115, 173–191, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2012.09.001, 2012. a
Andrews, D. G., Holton, J. R., and Leovy, C. B.: Middle Atmosphere Dynamics, Academic Press, San Diego, CA, 1987. a
Aquila, V., Oman, L. D., Stolarski, R. S., Colarco, P. R., and Newman,
P. A.: Dispersion of the volcanic sulfate cloud from a Mount Pinatubo-like
eruption, J. Geophys. Res-Atmos., 117, D06216, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016968, 2012. a
Aspinall, W. and Woo, G.: Counterfactual Analysis of Runaway Volcanic Explosions, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 222, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00222, 2019. a
Baales, M., Jöris, O., Street, M., Bittmann, F., Weninger, B., and Wiethold, J.: Impact of the Late Glacial Eruption of the Laacher See Volcano, Central Rhineland, Germany, Quaternary Res., 58, 273–288, https://doi.org/10.1006/qres.2002.2379, 2002. a, b, c
Baines, P. G. and Sparks, R. S. J.: Dynamics of giant volcanic ash clouds from supervolcanic eruptions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L24808, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024597, 2005. a, b, c, d
Baldini, J. U. L., Brown, R. J., and Mawdsley, N.: Evaluating the link between the sulfur-rich Laacher See volcanic eruption and the Younger Dryas climate anomaly, Clim. Past, 14, 969–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-969-2018, 2018. a, b, c, d
Blong, R., Riede, F., and Chen, Q.: A fuzzy logic methodology for assessing the resilience of past communities to tephra fall: a Laacher See eruption 13,000 year BP case, Volcanica, 1, 63–84, https://doi.org/10.30909/vol.01.01.6384, 2018. a, b
Bronk Ramsey, C., Albert, P. G., Blockley, S. P., Hardiman, M., Housley, R. A., Lane, C. S., Lee, S., Matthews, I. P., Smith, V. C., and Lowe, J. J.: Improved age estimates for key Late Quaternary European tephra horizons in the RESET lattice, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 118, 18–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.11.007, synchronising Environmental and Archaeological Records using Volcanic Ash Isochrons, 2015. a
Chakraborty, P., Gioia, G., and Kieffer, S.: Volcanic mesocyclones, Nature, 458, 497–500, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07866, 2009. a
Chuan, R. L. and Woods, D. C.: Temporal variations in characteristics of
the El Chichon stratospheric cloud, Geofis. Int., Vol. 23, available at:
http://revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx/index.php/RGI/article/view/1155 (last access: 23 January 2020), 2013. a
Clyne, M., Lamarque, J.-F., Mills, M. J., Khodri, M., Ball, W., Bekki, S., Dhomse, S. S., Lebas, N., Mann, G., Marshall, L., Niemeier, U., Poulain, V., Robock, A., Rozanov, E., Schmidt, A., Stenke, A., Sukhodolov, T., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Tummon, F., Zanchettin, D., Zhu, Y., and Toon, O. B.: Model physics and chemistry causing intermodel disagreement within the VolMIP-Tambora Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol ensemble, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-883, in review, 2020. a
Costa, A., Folch, A., and Macedonio, G.: Density-driven transport in the umbrella region of volcanic clouds: Implications for tephra dispersion models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4823–4827, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50942, 2013. a, b
Donovan, A. and Oppenheimer, C.: Imagining the Unimaginable: Communicating Extreme Volcanic Risk, Springer International Publishing, Cham, 149–163, https://doi.org/10.1007/11157_2015_16, 2018. a
English, J. M., Toon, O., and Mills, M. J.: Microphysical simulations of large volcanic eruptions: Pinatubo and Toba, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1880–1895, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50196, 2013. a
Giorgetta, M. A., Manzini, E., Roeckner, E., Esch, M., and Bengtsson, L.: Climatology and forcing of the quasi–biennial oscillation in the MAECHAM5 model, J. Climate, 19, 3882–3901, 2006. a
Guo, S., Rose, W. I., Bluth, G. J. S., and Watson, I. M.: Particles in the great Pinatubo volcanic cloud of June 1991: The role of ice, Geochemistry, Geophys. Geosystems, 5, Q05003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GC000655, 2004. a
Hajdas, I., Zolitschka, B., Ivy-Ochs, S. D., Beer, J., Bonani, G., Leroy, S. A., Negendank, J. W., Ramrath, M., and Suter, M.: AMS radiocarbon dating of annually laminated sediments from lake Holzmaar, Germany, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 14, 137–143, https://doi.org/10.1016/0277-3791(94)00123-S, 1995. a
Harms, E. and Schmincke, H.: Volatile composition of the phonolitic
Laacher See magma (12,900 yr BP): implications for syn-eruptive degassing of S, F, Cl and H2O, Contrib. Mineral. Petr., 138, 84–98, https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00007665, 2000.
Holasek, R. E., Woods, A. W., and Self, S.: Experiments on gas-ash separation processes in volcanic umbrella clouds, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 70, 169–181, https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(95)00054-2, 1996. a
Hommel, R., Timmreck, C., and Graf, H. F.: The global middle-atmosphere aerosol model MAECHAM5-SAM2: comparison with satellite and in-situ observations, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 809–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-809-2011, 2011. a
Hurrell, J. W., Hack, J. J., Shea, D., Caron, J. M., and Rosinski, J.: A New Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Boundary Dataset for the Community Atmosphere Model, J. Climate, 21, 5145–5153, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2292.1, 2008. a
Jaiser, R., Dethloff, K., and Handorf, D.: Stratospheric response to Arctic sea ice retreat and associated planetary wave propagation changes, Tellus A, 65, 19375, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19375, 2013. a
Jones, A. C., Haywood, J. M., Jones, A., and Aquila, V.: Sensitivity of volcanic aerosol dispersion to meteorological conditions: A Pinatubo case study, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 6892–6908, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025001, 2016. a
Lamb, H. H. and Sawyer, J. S.: Volcanic dust in the atmosphere; with a chronology and assessment of its meteorological significance, Philos. Trans. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 266, 425–533, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.1970.0010, 1970. a
Leder, J., Wenzel, F., Daniell, J. E., and Gottschämmer, E.: Loss of residential buildings in the event of a re-awakening of the Laacher See Volcano (Germany), J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 337, 111–123, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.02.019, 2017. a, b
Mackie, S., Cashman, K., Ricketts, H., Rust, A., and Watson, M.: Volcanic ash: hazard observation, Elsevier, Oxford, https://doi.org/10.1016/C2014-0-03381-3, 2016. a
Marshall, L., Schmidt, A., Toohey, M., Carslaw, K. S., Mann, G. W., Sigl, M., Khodri, M., Timmreck, C., Zanchettin, D., Ball, W. T., Bekki, S., Brooke, J. S. A., Dhomse, S., Johnson, C., Lamarque, J.-F., LeGrande, A. N., Mills, M. J., Niemeier, U., Pope, J. O., Poulain, V., Robock, A., Rozanov, E., Stenke, A., Sukhodolov, T., Tilmes, S., Tsigaridis, K., and Tummon, F.: Multi-model comparison of the volcanic sulfate deposition from the 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, 2018. a, b
Marshall, L., Johnson, J. S., Mann, G. W., Lee, L., Dhomse, S. S., Regayre, L., Yoshioka, M., Carslaw, K. S., and Schmidt, A.: Exploring How Eruption Source Parameters Affect Volcanic Radiative Forcing Using Statistical Emulation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 964–985, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028675, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f
Martin, S. C.: Past eruptions and future predictions: Analyzing ancient responses to Mount Vesuvius for use in modern risk management, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 396, 106851, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2020.106851, 2020. a
Mastrolorenzo, G., Petrone, P., Pappalardo, L., and Sheridan, M. F.: The Avellino 3780-yr-B.P. catastrophe as a worst-case scenario for a future eruption at Vesuvius, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 103, 4366–4370, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0508697103, 2006. a
Mazzorana, B., Hübl, J., and Fuchs, S.: Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 145–159, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-145-2009, 2009. a
Merkt, J. and Müller, H.: Varve chronology and palynology of the Lateglacial in Northwest Germany from lacustrine sediments of Hamelsee in Lower Saxony, Quat. Int., 61, 41–59, 1999. a
Mills, M. J., Richter, J. H., Tilmes, S., Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Glanville, A. A., Tribbia, J. J., Lamarque, J.-F., Vitt, F., Schmidt, A., Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Bacmeister, J. T., and Kinnison, D. E.: Radiative and Chemical Response to Interactive Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosols in Fully Coupled CESM1(WACCM), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 13061–13078, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027006, 2017. a
Mossop, S.: Volcanic Dust Collected at an Altitude of 20 KM, Nature, 203, 824–827, https://doi.org/10.1038/203824a0, 1964. a, b
Muser, L. O., Hoshyaripour, G. A., Bruckert, J., Horváth, Á., Malinina, E., Wallis, S., Prata, F. J., Rozanov, A., von Savigny, C., Vogel, H., and Vogel, B.: Particle aging and aerosol–radiation interaction affect volcanic plume dispersion: evidence from the Raikoke 2019 eruption, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15015–15036, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15015-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Newhall, C. G. and Self, S.: The volcanic explosivity index (VEI) an estimate of explosive magnitude for historical volcanism, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 87, 1231–1238, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC087iC02p01231, 1982. a
Niemeier, U. and Schmidt, H.: Changing transport processes in the stratosphere by radiative heating of sulfate aerosols, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14871–14886, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14871-2017, 2017. a
Niemeier, U. and Timmreck, C.: What is the limit of climate engineering by stratospheric injection of SO2?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9129–9141, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9129-2015, 2015. a
Niemeier, U., Timmreck, C., and Krüger, K.: Revisiting the Agung 1963 volcanic forcing – impact of one or two eruptions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10379–10390, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10379-2019, 2019. a
Niemeier, U., Richter, J. H., and Tilmes, S.: Differing responses of the quasi-biennial oscillation to artificial SO2 injections in two global models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8975–8987, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8975-2020, 2020a. a
Niemeier, U., Riede, F., and Timmreck, C.: ECHAM5 Data of: Simulation of a Laacher See-type eruption, World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ, available at: http://cera-www.dkrz.de/WDCC/ui/Compact.jsp?acronym=DKRZ_LTA_550_ds00004, last access: 1 October 2020b. a
Prata, A. T.: Remote Sensing of Volcanic Eruptions, American Geophysical Union (AGU), chap. 14, 289–322, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119054146.ch14, 2016. a
Prata, F., Woodhouse, M., Huppert, H. E., Prata, A., Thordarson, T., and Carn, S.: Atmospheric processes affecting the separation of volcanic ash and SO2 in volcanic eruptions: inferences from the May 2011 Grímsvötn eruption, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10709–10732, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10709-2017, 2017. a
Pueschel, R. F., Russell, P. B., Allen, D. A., Ferry, G. V., Snetsinger, K. G., Livingston, J. M., and Verma, S.: Physical and optical properties of the Pinatubo volcanic aerosol: Aircraft observations with impactors and a Sun-tracking photometer, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 99, 12915–12922, https://doi.org/10.1029/94JD00621, 1994. a
Reinig, F., Cherubini, P., Engels, S., Esper, J., Guidobaldi, G., Jöris, O., Lane, C., Nievergelt, D., Oppenheimer, C., Park, C., Pfanz, H., Riede, F., Schmincke, H.-U., Street, M., Wacker, L., and Büntgen, U.: Towards a dendrochronologically refined date of the Laacher See eruption around 13 000 years ago, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 229, 106128, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.106128, 2020. a, b, c, d, e
Riede, F.: The Laacher See-eruption (12,920 BP) and material culture change at the end of the Allerød in Northern Europe, J. Archaeol. Sci., 35, 591–599, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jas.2007.05.007, 2008. a
Riede, F. and Bazely, O.: Testing the “Laacher See hypothesis”: a health hazard perspective, J. Archaeol. Sci., 36, 675–683, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jas.2008.10.013, 2009. a
Riede, F. and Bazely, O., Newton, A. J., and Lane, C. S.: A Laacher See-eruption supplement to Tephrabase: Investigating distal tephra fallout dynamics, Quatern. Int., 246, 134–144, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2011.06.029, 2011. a, b, c, d
Russell, P. B., Livingston, J. M., Pueschel, R. F., Pollack, J. B., Brooks, S., Hamill, P., Hughes, J., Thomason, L., Stowe, L., Deshler, T., and Dutton, E.: Global to microscale evolution of the Pinatubo volcanic aerosol, derived from diverse measurements and analyses, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 18745–18763, 1996. a
Schmidt, A., Ostro, B., Carslaw, K. S., Wilson, M., Thordarson, T., Mann, G. W., and Simmons, A. J.: Excess mortality in Europe following a future Laki-style Icelandic eruption, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 15710–15715, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1108569108, 2011. a
Schmincke, H.-U.: Volcanism, Springer Science & Business Media,
Berlin, Heidelberg, Vol. 28, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-18952-4, 2004. a
Schmincke, H.-U., Park, C., and Harms, E.: Evolution and environmental impacts of the eruption of Laacher See Volcano (Germany) 12 900 a BP, Quatern. Int., 61, 61–72, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1040-6182(99)00017-8, 1999. a, b
Schneider, D. J., Rose, W. I., Coke, L. R., Bluth, G. J. S., Sprod, I. E., and Krueger, A. J.: Early evolution of a stratospheric volcanic eruption cloud as observed with TOMS and AVHRR, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 4037–4050, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998JD200073, 1999. a
Sonnek, K., Mårtensson, T., Veibäck, E., Tunved, P., Grahn, H., von Schoenberg, P., Brännström, N., and Bucht, A.: The impacts of a Laki-like eruption on the present Swedish society., Nat Hazards, 88, 1565–1590, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2933-0, 2017. a
Stier, P., Feichter, J., Kinne, S., Kloster, S., Vignati, E., Wilson, J., Ganzeveld, L., Tegen, I., Werner, M., Balkanski, Y., Schulz, M., Boucher, O., Minikin, A., and Petzold, A.: The aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 1125–1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-5-1125-2005, 2005. a, b
Svensson, A., Dahl-Jensen, D., Steffensen, J. P., Blunier, T., Rasmussen, S. O., Vinther, B. M., Vallelonga, P., Capron, E., Gkinis, V., Cook, E., Kjær, H. A., Muscheler, R., Kipfstuhl, S., Wilhelms, F., Stocker, T. F., Fischer, H., Adolphi, F., Erhardt, T., Sigl, M., Landais, A., Parrenin, F., Buizert, C., McConnell, J. R., Severi, M., Mulvaney, R., and Bigler, M.: Bipolar volcanic synchronization of abrupt climate change in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores during the last glacial period, Clim. Past, 16, 1565–1580, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1565-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Textor, C., Sachs, P. M., Graf, H.-F., and Hansteen, T. H.: The 12 900 years BP Laacher See eruption: estimation of volatile yields and simulation of their fate in the plume, Geol. Soc. Spec. Publ., 213, 307–328, https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.SP.2003.213.01.19, 2003. a, b, c
Timmreck, C.: Three–dimensional simulation of stratospheric background aerosol: First results of a multiannual general circulation model simulation, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 28313–28332, 2001. a
Timmreck, C. and Graf, H.-F.: The initial dispersal and radiative forcing of a Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude super volcano: a model study, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 35–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-35-2006, 2006. a
Toohey, M., Krüger, K., Sigl, M., Stordal, F., and Svensen, H.: Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages, Clim. Change, 136, 401–412, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1648-7, 2016. a
Toohey, M., Krüger, K., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C., Sigl, M., Stoffel, M., and Wilson, R.: Disproportionately strong climate forcing from extratropical explosive volcanic eruptions, Nat. Geosci., 12, 100–107, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0286-2, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p
Ungarish, M., Johnson, C., and Hogg, A.: Sustained axisymmetric intrusions in a rotating system, Eur. J. Mech. B Fluid., 56, 110–119, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euromechflu.2015.10.008, 2016. a
van den Bogaard, P. and Schmincke, H.-U.: Laacher See Tephra: A widespread isochronous late Quaternary tephra layer in central and northern Europe, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 96, 1554–1571, 1985. a
Vernier, J.-P., Fairlie, T. D., Deshler, T., Natarajan, M., Knepp, T., Foster, K., Wienhold, F. G., Bedka, K. M., Thomason, L., and Trepte, C.: In situ and space-based observations of the Kelud volcanic plume: The persistence of ash in the lower stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 11104–11118, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025344, 2016. a
Woods, D. C. and Chuan, R. L.: Size-specific composition of aerosols in the El Chichon volcanic cloud, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10, 1041–1044, https://doi.org/10.1029/GL010i011p01041, 1983. a
Zanchettin, D., Khodri, M., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Schmidt, A., Gerber, E. P., Hegerl, G., Robock, A., Pausata, F. S. R., Ball, W. T., Bauer, S. E., Bekki, S., Dhomse, S. S., LeGrande, A. N., Mann, G. W., Marshall, L., Mills, M., Marchand, M., Niemeier, U., Poulain, V., Rozanov, E., Rubino, A., Stenke, A., Tsigaridis, K., and Tummon, F.: The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016. a
Zhu, Y., Toon, O. B., Jensen, E. J., Bardeen, C. G., Mills, M. J., Tolbert, M. A., Yu, P., and Woods, S.: Persisting volcanic ash particles impact strato-spheric SO2 lifetime and aerosol optical properties, Nat. Commun., 11, 4526, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18352-5, 2020. a, b
Zuccaro, G., Cacace, F., Spence, R., and Baxter, P.: Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius, evaluating Explosive Eruption Risk at European Volcanoes, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 178, 416–453, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.01.005, 2008. a
Short summary
The 13 kyr BP Laacher See eruption impacted local environments, human communities and climate. We have simulated the evolution of its fine ash and sulfur cloud such that it reflects the empirically known ash distribution. In our models, the heating of the ash causes a mesocyclone which changes the dispersion of the cloud itself, resulting in enhanced transport to low latitudes. This may partially explain why no Laacher See ash has yet been found in Greenlandic ice cores.
The 13 kyr BP Laacher See eruption impacted local environments, human communities and climate....
