Articles | Volume 14, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-101-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-101-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Jan 2018
Research article |
| 25 Jan 2018
Climate variability in the subarctic area for the last 2 millennia
Marie Nicolle
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Normandie Univ, UNIROUEN, UNICAEN, CNRS, M2C, 76000 Rouen, France
Maxime Debret
Normandie Univ, UNIROUEN, UNICAEN, CNRS, M2C, 76000 Rouen, France
Nicolas Massei
Normandie Univ, UNIROUEN, UNICAEN, CNRS, M2C, 76000 Rouen, France
Christophe Colin
GEOPS, CNRS, University of Paris-Sud, 91405 Orsay CEDEX, France
Anne deVernal
Centre de recherche en géochimie et géodynamique (Geotop), Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada
Dmitry Divine
Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø, Norway
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
Johannes P. Werner
Bjerknes Center for Climate Research and Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Anne Hormes
University of Gothenburg, Department of Earth Sciences, Gothenburg, Sweden
Atte Korhola
Department of Environmental Sciences, Environmental Change Research Unit (ECRU), University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 65, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
Hans W. Linderholm
Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, 40530 Gothenburg, Sweden
Related authors
Pierre Sabatier, Marie Nicolle, Christine Piot, Christophe Colin, Maxime Debret, Didier Swingedouw, Yves Perrette, Marie-Charlotte Bellingery, Benjamin Chazeau, Anne-Lise Develle, Maxime Leblanc, Charlotte Skonieczny, Yoann Copard, Jean-Louis Reyss, Emmanuel Malet, Isabelle Jouffroy-Bapicot, Maëlle Kelner, Jérôme Poulenard, Julien Didier, Fabien Arnaud, and Boris Vannière
Clim. Past, 16, 283–298, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-283-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-283-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution multiproxy analysis of sediment core from a high-elevation lake on Corsica allows us to reconstruct past African dust inputs to the western Mediterranean area over the last 3 millennia. Millennial variations of Saharan dust input have been correlated with the long-term southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, while short-term variations were associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and total solar irradiance after and before 1070 cal BP, respectively.
Hans W. Linderholm, Marie Nicolle, Pierre Francus, Konrad Gajewski, Samuli Helama, Atte Korhola, Olga Solomina, Zicheng Yu, Peng Zhang, William J. D'Andrea, Maxime Debret, Dmitry V. Divine, Björn E. Gunnarson, Neil J. Loader, Nicolas Massei, Kristina Seftigen, Elizabeth K. Thomas, Johannes Werner, Sofia Andersson, Annika Berntsson, Tomi P. Luoto, Liisa Nevalainen, Saija Saarni, and Minna Väliranta
Clim. Past, 14, 473–514, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-473-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-473-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reviews the current knowledge of Arctic hydroclimate variability during the past 2000 years. We discuss the current state, look into the future, and describe various archives and proxies used to infer past hydroclimate variability. We also provide regional overviews and discuss the potential of furthering our understanding of Arctic hydroclimate in the past. This paper summarises the hydroclimate-related activities of the Arctic 2k group.
Manuel Fossa, Marie Nicolle, Nicolas Massei, Matthieu Fournier, and Benoit Laignel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-395, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-395, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Links between river's discharge and large scale atmospheric and ocean physical processes has long been established by numerous studies. It is critical to identify those links for each river and map the rivers that share the same links. This study introduces a new method that allows classification of France rivers discharge variability according to 4 atmospheric processes that influence them and at 3 different time scales.
Raoul A. Collenteur, Ezra Haaf, Mark Bakker, Tanja Liesch, Andreas Wunsch, Jenny Soonthornrangsan, Jeremy White, Nick Martin, Rui Hugman, Ed de Sousa, Didier Vanden Berghe, Xinyang Fan, Tim J. Peterson, Jānis Bikše, Antoine Di Ciacca, Xinyue Wang, Yang Zheng, Maximilian Nölscher, Julian Koch, Raphael Schneider, Nikolas Benavides Höglund, Sivarama Krishna Reddy Chidepudi, Abel Henriot, Nicolas Massei, Abderrahim Jardani, Max Gustav Rudolph, Amir Rouhani, J. Jaime Gómez-Hernández, Seifeddine Jomaa, Anna Pölz, Tim Franken, Morteza Behbooei, Jimmy Lin, and Rojin Meysami
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5193–5208, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5193-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5193-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show the results of the 2022 Groundwater Time Series Modelling Challenge; 15 teams applied data-driven models to simulate hydraulic heads, and three model groups were identified: lumped, machine learning, and deep learning. For all wells, reasonable performance was obtained by at least one team from each group. There was not one team that performed best for all wells. In conclusion, the challenge was a successful initiative to compare different models and learn from each other.
Teemu Juselius-Rajamäki, Sanna Piilo, Susanna Salminen-Paatero, Emilia Tuomaala, Tarmo Virtanen, Atte Korhola, Anna Autio, Hannu Marttila, Pertti Ala-Aho, Annalea Lohila, and Minna Väliranta
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2102, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The vegetation can be used to infer the potential climate feedback of peatlands. New studies have shown recent expansion of peatlands but their plant community succession of has not been studied. Although generally described as dry bog-types, our results show that peatland margins in a subarctic fen initiated as wet fen with high methane emissions and shifted to dryer peatland types only after dryer post Little Ice Age climate. Thus, they have acted as a carbon source for most of their history.
Sivarama Krishna Reddy Chidepudi, Nicolas Massei, Abderrahim Jardani, Bastien Dieppois, Abel Henriot, and Matthieu Fournier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-794, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-794, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how deep learning can improve our understanding of groundwater levels, using an approach that combines climate data and physical characteristics of aquifers. By focusing on different types of groundwater levels and employing techniques like clustering and wavelet transform, the study highlights the importance of targeting relevant information. This research not only advances groundwater simulation but also emphasizes the benefits of different modelling approaches.
Tzu Tung Chen, Rodney Edvinsson, Karin Modig, Hans W. Linderholm, and Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-92, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
We study the climate effects on mortality, using annual mortality records and meteorological data, in Sweden between 1749 and 1859. It is found that colder winter and spring temperatures increased mortality, while no statistically significant associations were observed between summer or autumn temperatures and mortality, and only weak associations existed with precipitation. Further research is needed about which specific diseases caused the mortality increase following cold winters and springs.
Sabrina Hohmann, Michal Kucera, and Anne de Vernal
Clim. Past, 19, 2027–2051, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2027-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Drivers for dinocyst assemblage compositions differ regionally and through time. Shifts in the assemblages can sometimes only be interpreted robustly by locally and sometimes globally calibrated transfer functions, questioning the reliability of environmental reconstructions. We suggest the necessity of a thorough evaluation of transfer function performance and significance for downcore applications to disclose the drivers for present and fossil dinocyst assemblages in a studied core location.
Vianney Sivelle, Guillaume Cinkus, Naomi Mazzilli, David Labat, Bruno Arfib, Nicolas Massei, Yohann Cousquer, Dominique Bertin, and Hervé Jourde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-17, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
KarstMod consists in a useful tool for the assessment of karst groundwater variability and sensitivity to anthropogenic pressures (e.g. groundwater abstraction). This tools is devoted to promote good practices in hydrological modeling for learning and occasional users. KarstMod requires no programming skills and offers a user friendly interface allowing any user to easily handle hydrological modeling.
Ruifang Ma, Sophie Sépulcre, Laetitia Licari, Frédéric Haurine, Franck Bassinot, Zhaojie Yu, and Christophe Colin
Clim. Past, 18, 1757–1774, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1757-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1757-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We provide high-resolution Cd / Ca records of benthic foraminifera on two cores from the northern Indian Ocean since the last deglaciation. We reconstructed intermediate Cdw records based on Cd / Ca. Combined with benthic foraminiferal assemblages, we show that intermediate Cdw during the last deglaciation was mainly influenced by the ventilation of intermediate–bottom water masses. Thereafter during the Holocene surface productivity is the main forcing factor related to monsoon precipitation.
Lisa Baulon, Nicolas Massei, Delphine Allier, Matthieu Fournier, and Hélène Bessiere
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2829–2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2829-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2829-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aquifers often act as low-pass filters, dampening high-frequency (intra-annual) and amplifying low-frequency (LFV, multi-annual to multidecadal) variabilities originating from climate variability. By processing groundwater level signals, we show the key role of LFV in the occurrence of groundwater extremes (GWEs). Results highlight how changes in LFV may impact future GWEs as well as the importance of correct representation of LFV in general circulation model outputs for GWE projection.
Manuel Fossa, Bastien Dieppois, Nicolas Massei, Matthieu Fournier, Benoit Laignel, and Jean-Philippe Vidal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5683–5702, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5683-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Hydro-climate observations (such as precipitation, temperature, and river discharge time series) reveal very complex behavior inherited from complex interactions among the physical processes that drive hydro-climate viability. This study shows how even small perturbations of a physical process can have large consequences on some others. Those interactions vary spatially, thus showing the importance of both temporal and spatial dimensions in better understanding hydro-climate variability.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Imen Turki, Lisa Baulon, Nicolas Massei, Benoit Laignel, Stéphane Costa, Matthieu Fournier, and Olivier Maquaire
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3225-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3225-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the variability of storm surges along the English Channel coasts and their connection with the global atmospheric circulation at the interannual and interdecadal timescales using hybrid approaches combining wavelet techniques and probabilistic
generalized extreme value models. Our hypothesis is that the physical mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation change according to the timescales and their connection with the local variability improve the prediction of the extreme surges.
Nicolas Massei, Daniel G. Kingston, David M. Hannah, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Bastien Dieppois, Manuel Fossa, Andreas Hartmann, David A. Lavers, and Benoit Laignel
Proc. IAHS, 383, 141–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-141-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-141-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents recent thoughts by members of EURO-FRIEND Water project 3 “Large-scale-variations in hydrological characteristics” about research needed to characterize and understand large-scale hydrology under global changes. Emphasis is put on the necessary efforts to better understand 1 – the impact of low-frequency climate variability on hydrological trends and extremes, 2 – the role of basin properties on modulating the climate signal producing hydrological responses on the basin scale.
Aurélie Marcelle Renée Aubry, Stijn De Schepper, and Anne de Vernal
J. Micropalaeontol., 39, 41–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/jm-39-41-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/jm-39-41-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We used organic-walled microfossils to better define the Plio–Pleistocene transition (2.56 Ma) that is associated with the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation. The disappearance of species around 2.75 Ma reflects an ecological response accompanying the Greenland ice sheet growth.
A strong regionalism marks the Labrador Sea and suggests cooler conditions than elsewhere in the North Atlantic, although our zone boundaries are contemporaneous with the eastern North Atlantic.
Pierre Sabatier, Marie Nicolle, Christine Piot, Christophe Colin, Maxime Debret, Didier Swingedouw, Yves Perrette, Marie-Charlotte Bellingery, Benjamin Chazeau, Anne-Lise Develle, Maxime Leblanc, Charlotte Skonieczny, Yoann Copard, Jean-Louis Reyss, Emmanuel Malet, Isabelle Jouffroy-Bapicot, Maëlle Kelner, Jérôme Poulenard, Julien Didier, Fabien Arnaud, and Boris Vannière
Clim. Past, 16, 283–298, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-283-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-283-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution multiproxy analysis of sediment core from a high-elevation lake on Corsica allows us to reconstruct past African dust inputs to the western Mediterranean area over the last 3 millennia. Millennial variations of Saharan dust input have been correlated with the long-term southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, while short-term variations were associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and total solar irradiance after and before 1070 cal BP, respectively.
Chris S. M. Turney, Helen V. McGregor, Pierre Francus, Nerilie Abram, Michael N. Evans, Hugues Goosse, Lucien von Gunten, Darrell Kaufman, Hans Linderholm, Marie-France Loutre, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 15, 611–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This PAGES (Past Global Changes) 2k (climate of the past 2000 years working group) special issue of Climate of the Past brings together the latest understanding of regional change and impacts from PAGES 2k groups across a range of proxies and regions. The special issue has emerged from a need to determine the magnitude and rate of change of regional and global climate beyond the timescales accessible within the observational record.
Michael Boy, Erik S. Thomson, Juan-C. Acosta Navarro, Olafur Arnalds, Ekaterina Batchvarova, Jaana Bäck, Frank Berninger, Merete Bilde, Zoé Brasseur, Pavla Dagsson-Waldhauserova, Dimitri Castarède, Maryam Dalirian, Gerrit de Leeuw, Monika Dragosics, Ella-Maria Duplissy, Jonathan Duplissy, Annica M. L. Ekman, Keyan Fang, Jean-Charles Gallet, Marianne Glasius, Sven-Erik Gryning, Henrik Grythe, Hans-Christen Hansson, Margareta Hansson, Elisabeth Isaksson, Trond Iversen, Ingibjorg Jonsdottir, Ville Kasurinen, Alf Kirkevåg, Atte Korhola, Radovan Krejci, Jon Egill Kristjansson, Hanna K. Lappalainen, Antti Lauri, Matti Leppäranta, Heikki Lihavainen, Risto Makkonen, Andreas Massling, Outi Meinander, E. Douglas Nilsson, Haraldur Olafsson, Jan B. C. Pettersson, Nønne L. Prisle, Ilona Riipinen, Pontus Roldin, Meri Ruppel, Matthew Salter, Maria Sand, Øyvind Seland, Heikki Seppä, Henrik Skov, Joana Soares, Andreas Stohl, Johan Ström, Jonas Svensson, Erik Swietlicki, Ksenia Tabakova, Throstur Thorsteinsson, Aki Virkkula, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Yusheng Wu, Paul Zieger, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2015–2061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2015-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2015-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Nordic Centre of Excellence CRAICC (Cryosphere–Atmosphere Interactions in a Changing Arctic Climate), funded by NordForsk in the years 2011–2016, is the largest joint Nordic research and innovation initiative to date and aimed to strengthen research and innovation regarding climate change issues in the Nordic region. The paper presents an overview of the main scientific topics investigated and provides a state-of-the-art comprehensive summary of what has been achieved in CRAICC.
Tine Nilsen, Johannes P. Werner, Dmitry V. Divine, and Martin Rypdal
Clim. Past, 14, 947–967, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-947-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-947-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The BARCAST climate field reconstruction method is tested using synthetic data experiments. It is demonstrated that the output reconstructions have altered statistical properties compared with the input data, but they are also not necessarily consistent with the model assumption of the reconstruction method. The conclusion is that the statistical properties of a reconstruction not only reflect the statistics of the real climate, but they may very well be affected by the manipulation of the data.
Carmen Paulina Vega, Elisabeth Isaksson, Elisabeth Schlosser, Dmitry Divine, Tõnu Martma, Robert Mulvaney, Anja Eichler, and Margit Schwikowski-Gigar
The Cryosphere, 12, 1681–1697, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1681-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1681-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Ions were measured in firn and ice cores from Fimbul Ice Shelf, Antarctica, to evaluate sea-salt loads. A significant sixfold increase in sea salts was found in the S100 core after 1950s which suggests that it contains a more local sea-salt signal, dominated by processes during sea-ice formation in the neighbouring waters. In contrast, firn cores from three ice rises register the larger-scale signal of atmospheric flow conditions and transport of sea-salt aerosols produced over open water.
Feng Chen, Tongwen Zhang, Andrea Seim, Shulong Yu, Ruibo Zhang, Hans W. Linderholm, Zainalobudin V. Kobuliev, Ahsan Ahmadov, and Anvar Kodirov
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-44, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-44, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present a regional tree-ring chronology from the Kuramenian Mountains which accounts for 40.5 % of the variance of the June–July self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index during the instrumental period (1901 to 2012). Good agreements between drought records from western and eastern Central Asia suggest that the PDSI records retain common drought signals. This record can provide some information about the linkage of dry extremes of western Central Asia with the Asian summer monsoon.
Johannes P. Werner, Dmitry V. Divine, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Tine Nilsen, and Pierre Francus
Clim. Past, 14, 527–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-527-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-527-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new gridded Arctic summer temperature reconstruction back to the first millennium CE. Our method respects the age uncertainties of the data, which results in a more precise reconstruction.
The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented.
The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented.
Hans W. Linderholm, Marie Nicolle, Pierre Francus, Konrad Gajewski, Samuli Helama, Atte Korhola, Olga Solomina, Zicheng Yu, Peng Zhang, William J. D'Andrea, Maxime Debret, Dmitry V. Divine, Björn E. Gunnarson, Neil J. Loader, Nicolas Massei, Kristina Seftigen, Elizabeth K. Thomas, Johannes Werner, Sofia Andersson, Annika Berntsson, Tomi P. Luoto, Liisa Nevalainen, Saija Saarni, and Minna Väliranta
Clim. Past, 14, 473–514, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-473-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-473-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reviews the current knowledge of Arctic hydroclimate variability during the past 2000 years. We discuss the current state, look into the future, and describe various archives and proxies used to infer past hydroclimate variability. We also provide regional overviews and discuss the potential of furthering our understanding of Arctic hydroclimate in the past. This paper summarises the hydroclimate-related activities of the Arctic 2k group.
Jonas Svensson, Johan Ström, Niku Kivekäs, Nathaniel B. Dkhar, Shresth Tayal, Ved P. Sharma, Arttu Jutila, John Backman, Aki Virkkula, Meri Ruppel, Antti Hyvärinen, Anna Kontu, Henna-Reetta Hannula, Matti Leppäranta, Rakesh K. Hooda, Atte Korhola, Eija Asmi, and Heikki Lihavainen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1403–1416, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1403-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1403-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Receding glaciers in the Himalayas are of concern. Here we present measurements of light-absorbing impurities, known to contribute to the ongoing glacier decrease, in snow from Indian Himalayas and compare them to snow samples from the Finnish Arctic. The soot particles in the snow are shown to have lower light absorbing efficiency, possibly affecting their radiative forcing potential in the snow. Further, dust influences the snow in the Himalayas to a much greater extent than in Finland.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Jasper G. Franke, Johannes P. Werner, and Reik V. Donner
Clim. Past, 13, 1593–1608, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1593-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1593-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We apply evolving functional network analysis, a tool for studying temporal changes of the spatial co-variability structure, to a set of
Late Holocene paleoclimate proxy records covering the last two millennia. The emerging patterns obtained by our analysis are related to
long-term changes in the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the region, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We obtain a
qualitative reconstruction of the NAO long-term variability over the entire Common Era.
Meri M. Ruppel, Joana Soares, Jean-Charles Gallet, Elisabeth Isaksson, Tõnu Martma, Jonas Svensson, Jack Kohler, Christina A. Pedersen, Sirkku Manninen, Atte Korhola, and Johan Ström
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12779–12795, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12779-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12779-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Black carbon (BC) deposition enhances Arctic warming and melting. We present Svalbard ice core BC data from 2005 to 2015, comparing the results with chemical transport model data. The ice core and modelled BC deposition trends clearly deviate from measured and observed atmospheric concentration trends, and thus meteorological processes such as precipitation and scavenging efficiency seem to have a stronger influence on the BC deposition trend than BC emission or atmospheric concentration trends.
Yannick Mary, Frédérique Eynaud, Christophe Colin, Linda Rossignol, Sandra Brocheray, Meryem Mojtahid, Jennifer Garcia, Marion Peral, Hélène Howa, Sébastien Zaragosi, and Michel Cremer
Clim. Past, 13, 201–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-201-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-201-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In the boreal Atlantic, the subpolar and subtropical gyres (SPG and STG respectively) are key elements of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) cell and contribute to climate modulations over Europe. Here we document the last 10 kyr evolution of sea-surface temperatures over the North Atlantic with a focus on new data obtained from an exceptional sedimentary archive retrieved the southern Bay of Biscay, enabling the study of Holocene archives at (infra)centennial scales.
Quentin Dubois-Dauphin, Paolo Montagna, Giuseppe Siani, Eric Douville, Claudia Wienberg, Dierk Hebbeln, Zhifei Liu, Nejib Kallel, Arnaud Dapoigny, Marie Revel, Edwige Pons-Branchu, Marco Taviani, and Christophe Colin
Clim. Past, 13, 17–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-17-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-17-2017, 2017
Carmen P. Vega, Elisabeth Schlosser, Dmitry V. Divine, Jack Kohler, Tõnu Martma, Anja Eichler, Margit Schwikowski, and Elisabeth Isaksson
The Cryosphere, 10, 2763–2777, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2763-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2763-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Surface mass balance and water stable isotopes from firn cores on three ice rises at Fimbul Ice Shelf are reported. The results suggest that the ice rises are suitable sites for the retrieval of longer firn and ice cores. The first deuterium excess data for the area suggests a possible role of seasonal moisture transport changes on the annual isotopic signal. Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns most likely provide the dominant influence on water stable isotope ratios at the sites.
Manuel Fossa, Marie Nicolle, Nicolas Massei, Matthieu Fournier, and Benoit Laignel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-395, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-395, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Links between river's discharge and large scale atmospheric and ocean physical processes has long been established by numerous studies. It is critical to identify those links for each river and map the rivers that share the same links. This study introduces a new method that allows classification of France rivers discharge variability according to 4 atmospheric processes that influence them and at 3 different time scales.
Peng Zhang, Hans W. Linderholm, Björn E. Gunnarson, Jesper Björklund, and Deliang Chen
Clim. Past, 12, 1297–1312, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1297-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1297-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present C-Scan, a new Scots pine tree-ring density based reconstruction of warm-season (April-September) temperatures for central Scandinavia back to 850 CE, extending the previous reconstruction by 250 years. Our reconstruction indicates that the warm-season warmth during a relatively-warm period of last millennium is not so pronounced in central Scandinavia, which adds further detail to our knowledge about the spatial pattern of surface air temperature on the regional scale.
B. A. A. Hoogakker, R. S. Smith, J. S. Singarayer, R. Marchant, I. C. Prentice, J. R. M. Allen, R. S. Anderson, S. A. Bhagwat, H. Behling, O. Borisova, M. Bush, A. Correa-Metrio, A. de Vernal, J. M. Finch, B. Fréchette, S. Lozano-Garcia, W. D. Gosling, W. Granoszewski, E. C. Grimm, E. Grüger, J. Hanselman, S. P. Harrison, T. R. Hill, B. Huntley, G. Jiménez-Moreno, P. Kershaw, M.-P. Ledru, D. Magri, M. McKenzie, U. Müller, T. Nakagawa, E. Novenko, D. Penny, L. Sadori, L. Scott, J. Stevenson, P. J. Valdes, M. Vandergoes, A. Velichko, C. Whitlock, and C. Tzedakis
Clim. Past, 12, 51–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-51-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-51-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use two climate models to test how Earth’s vegetation responded to changes in climate over the last 120 000 years, looking at warm interglacial climates like today, cold ice-age glacial climates, and intermediate climates. The models agree well with observations from pollen, showing smaller forested areas and larger desert areas during cold periods. Forests store most terrestrial carbon; the terrestrial carbon lost during cold climates was most likely relocated to the oceans.
J. P. Werner and M. P. Tingley
Clim. Past, 11, 533–545, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-533-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-533-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present a Bayesian approach to simultaneously constrain the age models associated with time-uncertain proxies and inferring past climate in space and time. For the sake of exposition, the discussion focuses on annually resolved climate archives, such as varved lakes, corals, and tree rings, with dating by layer counting. Numerical experiments show that updating the probabilities associated with an ensemble of possible age models reduces uncertainty in the inferred climate.
I. Hessler, S. P. Harrison, M. Kucera, C. Waelbroeck, M.-T. Chen, C. Anderson, A. de Vernal, B. Fréchette, A. Cloke-Hayes, G. Leduc, and L. Londeix
Clim. Past, 10, 2237–2252, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2237-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2237-2014, 2014
M. M. Ruppel, E. Isaksson, J. Ström, E. Beaudon, J. Svensson, C. A. Pedersen, and A. Korhola
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11447–11460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11447-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11447-2014, 2014
H. S. Sundqvist, D. S. Kaufman, N. P. McKay, N. L. Balascio, J. P. Briner, L. C. Cwynar, H. P. Sejrup, H. Seppä, D. A. Subetto, J. T. Andrews, Y. Axford, J. Bakke, H. J. B. Birks, S. J. Brooks, A. de Vernal, A. E. Jennings, F. C. Ljungqvist, K. M. Rühland, C. Saenger, J. P. Smol, and A. E. Viau
Clim. Past, 10, 1605–1631, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1605-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1605-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
J. A. Björklund, B. E. Gunnarson, K. Seftigen, J. Esper, and H. W. Linderholm
Clim. Past, 10, 877–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-877-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-877-2014, 2014
C. V. Dylmer, J. Giraudeau, F. Eynaud, K. Husum, and A. De Vernal
Clim. Past, 9, 1505–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1505-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1505-2013, 2013
D. J. Charman, D. W. Beilman, M. Blaauw, R. K. Booth, S. Brewer, F. M. Chambers, J. A. Christen, A. Gallego-Sala, S. P. Harrison, P. D. M. Hughes, S. T. Jackson, A. Korhola, D. Mauquoy, F. J. G. Mitchell, I. C. Prentice, M. van der Linden, F. De Vleeschouwer, Z. C. Yu, J. Alm, I. E. Bauer, Y. M. C. Corish, M. Garneau, V. Hohl, Y. Huang, E. Karofeld, G. Le Roux, J. Loisel, R. Moschen, J. E. Nichols, T. M. Nieminen, G. M. MacDonald, N. R. Phadtare, N. Rausch, Ü. Sillasoo, G. T. Swindles, E.-S. Tuittila, L. Ukonmaanaho, M. Väliranta, S. van Bellen, B. van Geel, D. H. Vitt, and Y. Zhao
Biogeosciences, 10, 929–944, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-929-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-929-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Feedback and Forcing | Archive: Ice Cores | Timescale: Holocene
High-latitude Southern Hemisphere fire history during the mid- to late Holocene (6000–750 BP)
Tree ring effects and ice core acidities clarify the volcanic record of the first millennium
An independently dated 2000-yr volcanic record from Law Dome, East Antarctica, including a new perspective on the dating of the 1450s CE eruption of Kuwae, Vanuatu
Dario Battistel, Natalie M. Kehrwald, Piero Zennaro, Giuseppe Pellegrino, Elena Barbaro, Roberta Zangrando, Xanthi X. Pedeli, Cristiano Varin, Andrea Spolaor, Paul T. Vallelonga, Andrea Gambaro, and Carlo Barbante
Clim. Past, 14, 871–886, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-871-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-871-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
From the analysis of an Antarctic ice core we showed that during the mid- to late Holocene (6000–750 BP) the long-term fire activity increased with higher rates starting at ~ 4000 BP and, more surprisingly, peaked between 2500 and 1500 BP. The anomalous increase in biomass burning centered at about 2000 BP is due to a complex interaction between changes in atmospheric circulation and biomass availability, with the main contribution coming from southern South America.
M. G. L. Baillie and J. McAneney
Clim. Past, 11, 105–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-105-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-105-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Ice core acidities agree with historical volcanic eruptions and tree ring effects in recent centuries, but in the 1st millennium, ice acid dates appear offset from tree ring evidence. This offset appears real between AD 1000 and 50 BC. If correct, then current identification of Vesuvius tephra at AD 79 is erroneous, and geophysicists are working with a false volcanic record especially regarding multiple eruptions in AD 536 and 540-541, highlighting a major global hazard in proximate eruptions.
C. T. Plummer, M. A. J. Curran, T D. van Ommen, S. O. Rasmussen, A. D. Moy, T. R. Vance, H. B. Clausen, B. M. Vinther, and P. A. Mayewski
Clim. Past, 8, 1929–1940, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1929-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1929-2012, 2012
Cited articles
Abram, N. J., McGregor, H. V. , Tierney, J. E., Evans, M. N., McKay, N. P.,
Kaufman, D. S., and the PAGES2k Consortium: Early onset of industrial-era
warming across the oceans and continents, Nature, 536, 411–418, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature19082, 2016.
Andruleit H.: Coccolithophore fluxes in the Norwegian-Greenland Sea:
Seasonality and assemblage alterations, Marine Micropaleontology, 31,
45–64, 1997.
Assani, A. A., Landry, R., and Laurencelle, M.: Comparison of interannual
variability modes and trends of seasonal precipitation and streamflow in
southern Quebec (Canada), River Res. Appl., 28, 1740–1752, 2011.
Berner, K. S., Koç, N., Godtliebsen, F., and Divine, D.: Holocene climate
variability of the Norwegian Atlantic Current during high and low solar
insolation forcing, Paleoceanography, 26, 245–255, 2011.
Bird, B., Abbott, M., Finney, B., and Kutchko, B.: A 2000 year varve-based
climate record from the central Brooks Range, Alaska, J. Paleolimnol., 41, 25–41, 2009.
Calvo, E., Grimalt, J., and Jansen, E.: High resolution U37K sea surface
temperature reconstruction in the Norwegian Sea during the Holocene, Quaternary
Sci. Rev., 21, 1385–1394, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00096-8, 2002.
Cavalieri, D. J. and Parkinson, C. L.: Arctic sea ice variability and trends,
1979–2010, The Cryosphere, 6, 881–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-881-2012, 2012.
Chylek, P., Folland, C. K., Lesins, G., Manvendra, K. D., and Wang, M.: Arctic
air temperature change amplification and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L14801, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL03877, 2009.
Cleveland, W. and Devlin, S.: Locally weighted regression: an approach to
regression analysis by local fitting, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 83, 596–610, 1988.
Cleveland, W. and Loader, C.: Smoothing by local regression: Principles and
methods, Statistical theory and computational aspects of smoothing, in:
Statistical theory and computational aspects of smoothing, Physica-Verlag HD, 10–49, 1996.
Cohen, J., Screen, J. A., Furtado, J. C., Barlow, M., Whittleston, D., Coumou,
D., Francis, J., Dethloff, K., Entekhabi, D., Overland, J., and Jones, J.: Recent
Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather, Nat. Geosci., 7, 627–637, 2014.
D'Arrigo, R., Mashig, E., Frank, D., Wilson, R., and Jacoby, G.: Temperature
variability over the past millennium inferred from Northwestern Alaska tree
rings, Clim. Dynam., 24, 227–236, 2005.
D'Arrigo, A., Jacoby, G., Buckley, B., Sakulich, J., Frank, D., Wilson, R.,
Curtis, A., and Anchukaitis, K.: Tree growth and inferred temperature variability
at the North American Arctic treeline, Global Planet. Change, 65, 71–82, 2009.
Debret, M., Bout-Roumazeilles, V., Grousset, F., Desmet, M., McManus, J. F.,
Massei, N., Sebag, D., Petit, J.-R., Copard, Y., and Trentesaux, A.: The origin
of the 1500-year climate cycles in Holocene North-Atlantic records, Clim. Past,
3, 569–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-569-2007, 2007.
Enfield, D. B., Mestas-Nunez, A. M., and Trimble, P. J.: The Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation and it's relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S.,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2077–2080, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012745, 2001.
Esper, J.: Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing
past temperature variability, Science, 295, 2250–2253, 2002.
Gouhier, T. and Grinsted, A.: biwavelet: Conduct univariate and bivariate
wavelet analyses, R package version 0.20.11, available at: https://cran.rproject.org/web/packages/biwavelet/biwavelet.pdf,
last access: September 2016.
Gunnarson, B. E., Linderholm, H. W., and Moberg, A.: Improving a tree-ring
reconstruction from west-central Scandinavia: 900 years of warm-season
temperatures, Clim. Dynam., 36, 97–108, 2011.
Hanhijärvi, S., Tingley, M. P., and Korhola, A.: Pairwise comparisons to
reconstruct mean temperature in the Arctic Atlantic Region over the last 2,000 years,
Clim. Dynam., 41, 2039–2060, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1701-4, 2013.
Hessler, I., Harrison, S. P., Kucera, M., Waelbroeck, C., Chen, M.-T., Anderson,
C., de Vernal, A., Fréchette, B., Cloke-Hayes, A., Leduc, G., and Londeix,
L.: Implication of methodological uncertainties for mid-Holocene sea surface
temperature reconstructions, Clim. Past, 10, 2237–2252, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2237-2014, 2014.
IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, in: Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA, 2013.
Isaksson, E., Divine D., Kohler, J., Martma, T., Pohjola, V., Motoyama, H., and
Watanabe, O.: Climate oscillations as recorded in Svalbard ice core δ18O
records between AD 1200 and 1997, Geogr. Ann. A, 87, 203–214, 2005.
Jansen, E., Andersson, C., Moros, M., Nisancioglu, K. H., Nyland, B. F., and
Telford, R. J.: The Early to Mid-Holocene Thermal Optimum in the North Atlantic.
Natural Climate Variability and Global Warming: A Holocene Perspective, 123–137,
https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444300932.ch5, 2008.
Kaufman, D. S., Schneider, D. P., McKay, N. P., Ammann, C. M., Bradley, R. S.,
Briffa, K. R., Miller, G. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Overpeck, J. T., Vinther,
B. M., and Arctic Lakes 2k Project Members: recent warming reverses long-term
Arctic cooling, Science, 325, 1236–1239, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1173983, 2009.
Kendall, M. G.: Rank Correlation Methods, Griffin, London, UK, 1975.
Kerr, R. A.: A North Atlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries, Science,
288, 1984–1985, 2000.
Kirchhefer, A.: Reconstruction of summer temperatures from tree-rings of Scots
pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in coastal northern Norway, Holocene, 11, 41–52, 2001.
Knight, J. R., Folland, C. K., and Scaife, A. A.: Climate impacts of the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, 1–4, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026242, 2006.
Knudsen, M. F., Jacobsen, B. H., Seidenkrantz, M. S., and Olsen, J.: Evidence
for external forcing of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since termination
of the Little Ice Age, Nat. Commun., 5, 3323, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4323, 2014.
Kwok, R. and Rothrock, D. A.: Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine
and ICE Sat records: 1958–2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039035, 2009.
Lamoureux, S. F., England, J. H., Sharp, M. J., and Bush, A. B. G.: A varve
record of increase “Little ice Age” rainfall associated with volcanic activity,
Arctic Archipelago, Canada, Holocene, 11, 243–249, 2001.
Larsen, D. J., Miller, G. H., Geirsdóttir, Á., and Thordarson, T.: A
3000-year varved record of glacier activity and climate change from the proglacial
lake Hvítárvatn, Iceland, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 30, 2715–2731, 2011.
Linderholm, H. W., Nicolle, M., Francus, P., Gajewski, K., Helama, S., Korhola,
A., Solomina, O., Yu, Z., Zhang, P., D'Andrea, W. J., Debret, M., Divine, D.,
Gunnarson, B. E., Loader, N. J., Massei, N., Seftifgen, K., Thomas, E. K., and
Werner, J.: Arctic hydroclimate variability during the last 2000 years – current
understanding and research challenges, Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-34, in review, 2017.
Linge H., Lauritzen, S.-E., Andersson, C., Hansen, J. K., Skoglung, R. Ø.,
and Sundqvist, H. S.: Stable isotope records for the last 10 000 years from
Okshola cave (Fauske, northern Norway) and regional comparisons, Clim. Past,
5, 667–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-667-2009, 2009.
Ljungqvist, F. C.: A new reconstruction of temperature variability in the
extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere during the last two millennia, Geogr. Ann. A,
92, 339–351, 2010.
Mann, H. B.: Nonparametric test against trend, Econometrica, 13, 245–259, 1945.
Mann, M. E., Zhang, Z., Hughes, M., Bradley, R. S., Miller, S. K., Rutherford,
S., and Ni, F.: Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface
temperature variations over the past two millennia, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
105, 13252–13257, 2008.
Mann, M. E., Zhang, Z., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R. S., Hughes, M. K., Shindell,
D., Ammann, C., Faluvegi, G., and Ni, F.: Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins
of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science, 326, 1256–1260, 2009.
Mantua, N. J. and Hare, S. R.: The Pacific decadal oscillation, J. Oceanogr.,
58, 35–44 2002.
Mantua, N. J., Hare, S. R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J. M., and Francis, R. C.: A
Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 1069–1079, 1997.
Marcott, S. A., Shakun, J. D., Clark, P. U., and Mix, A. C.: A reconstruction of
regional and global temperature for the past 11,300 years, Science, 339, 1198–1201,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1228026, 2013.
Massa, C., Perren, B. B., Gauthier, E., Bichet, V., Petit, C., and Richard, H.:
A multiproxy evaluation of Holocene environmental change from Lake Igaliku,
South Greenland, J. Paleolimnol., 48, 241–258, 2012.
McGregor, H. V., Evans, M. N., Gosse, H., Leduc, G., Martrat, B., Addison,
J. A., Mortyn, P. G., Oppo, D. W., Seidenkrantz, M.-S., Sicre, M.-A., Phipps,
S. J., Selvaraj, K., Thirumalai, K., Filipsson, H. L., and Ersek, V.: Robust
global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era, Nat. Geosci.,
8, 671–677, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2510, 2015.
McKay, N. P. and Kaufman, D. S.: An extended Arctic proxy temperature database
for the past 2,000 years, Sci. Data, 1, 140026, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2014.26, 2014.
Melvin, T. M., Grudd, H., and Briffa, K. R.: Potential bias in updating tree-ring
chronologies using regional curve standardization: Re-processing 1500 years of
Torneträsk density and ring-width data, Holocene, 23, 364–373, 2013.
Miles, M. W., Divine, D. V., Furevik, T., Jansen, E., Moros, M., and Ogilvie,
A. E.: A signal of persistent Atlantic multidecadal variability in Arctic sea
ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 463–469, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058084, 2014.
Miller, G. H., Geirsdottir, A., Zhong, Y., Larsen, D. J., Otto-Bliesner, B. L.,
Holland, M. M., Bailey, D. A., Refsnider, K. A., Lehman, S. J., Southon, J. R.,
Anderson, C., Björnsson, H., and Thordarson, T.: Abrupt onset of the Little
Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 39, L02708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050168, 2012.
Mjell, T. L., Ninnemann, U. S., Eldevik, T., and Kleiven, H. K. F.: Holocene
multidecadal-to millennial-scale variations in Iceland-Scotland overflow and
their relationship to climate, Paleoceanography, 30, 558–569, 2015.
Moberg, A., Sonechkin, D. M., Holmgren, K., Datsenko, N. M., and Karlen, W.:
Highly variable northern hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and
high-resolution proxy data, Nature, 433, 613–617, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03265, 2005.
Moore, J., Hughen, K., Miller, G., and Overpeck, J.: Little Ice Age recorded
in summer temperature reconstruction from varved sediments of Donald Lake,
Baffin Island, Canada, J. Paleolimnol., 25, 503–5017, 2001.
Nesje, A. and Dahl, S. O.: The `Little Ice Age' – Only temperature?, Holocene,
13, 139–145, 2003.
PAGES 2k Consortium: Continental-scale temperature variability during the past
two millennia, Nat. Geosci., 6, 339–346, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1797, 2013.
Polyakov, I. V., Walsh, J. E., and Kwok, R.: Recent changes of Arctic multiyear
sea ice coverage and the likely causes, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 145–151, 2012.
Rolland, N., Larocque, I., Francus, P., Pienitz, R., and Laperrière, L.:
Evidence of a warmer period during the 12th and 13th centuries AD from chironomid
assemblages in Southampton Island, Nuvanut, Canada, Quatern. Res., 72, 27-37, 2009.
R Team: R: A language and environment for statistical computing, R Foundation
for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, available at: http://www.r-project.org/
(last access: February 2015), 2008.
Screen, J. A. and Francis, J. A.: Contribution of sea-ice loss to Arctic
amplification is regulated by Pacific Ocean decadal variability, Nat. Clim.
Change, 6, 856–860, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3011, 2016.
Serreze, M. C. and Barry, R. G.: Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification:
A research synthesis, Global Planet. Change, 77, 85–96, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.004, 2011.
Sha, L., Jiang, H., Seidenkrantz, M.-S., Muscheler, R., Zhang, X., Knudsen, M.
F., Olsen, J., Knudsen, K. L., and Zhang, W.: Solar forcing as an important
trigger for West Greenland sea-ice variability over the last millennium,
Quaternary Sci. Rev., 13, 148–156, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.11.002, 2015.
Shindell, D. and Faluvegi, G.: Climate response to regional radiative forcing
during the twentieth century, Nat. Geosci., 2, 294–300, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO473, 2009.
Sigl, M., Winstrup, M., McConnell, J. R., Welten, K. C., Plunkett, G., Ludlow,
F., Buentgen, U., Caffee, M., Chellman, N., Dahl-Jensen, D., Fischer, H.,
Kipfstuhl, S., Kostick, C., Maselli, O. J., Mekhaldi, F., Mulvaney, R., Muscheler,
R., Pasteris, D. R., Pilcher, J. R., Salzer, M., Schuepbach, S., Steffensen, J.
P., Vinther, B. M., and Woodruff, T. E.: Timing and climate forcing of volcanic
eruptions for the past 2,500 years, Nature, 523, 543–549, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14565, 2015.
Spielhagen, R. F., Werner, K., Sørensen, S. A., Zamelczyk, K., Kandiano, E.,
Budeus, G., Husum, K., Marchitto, T. M., and Hald, M.: Enhanced modern heat
transfer to the Arctic by warm Atlantic water, Science, 331, 450–453,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1197397, 2011.
Stammerjohn, S., Massom, R., Rind, D. and Martinson, D.: Regions of rapid
sea ice change: an interhemispheric seasonal comparison, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 39, L06501, 2012.
Stoffel, M., Khodri, M., Corona, C., Guillet, S., Poulain, V., Bekki, S., Guiot,
J., Luckman, B. H., Oppenheimer, C., Lebas, N., Beniston, M., and Masson-Delmotte,
V.: Estimates of volcanic-induced cooling in the Northern Hemisphere over the
past 1,500 years, Nat. Geosci., 8, 784–788, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2526, 2015.
Stroeve, J. C., Serreze, M. C., Holland, M. M., Kay, J. E., Maslanik, J., and
Barrett, A. P.: The Arctic's rapidly shrinking sea ice cover: a research
synthesis, Climatic Change, 110, 1005–1027, 2012.
Sutton, R. T. and Hodson, D. L. R.: Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American
and European summer climate, Science, 309, 115–118, 2005.
Torrence, C. and Compo, G. P.: A practical guide to wavelet analysis, B. Am.
Meteorol. Soc., 79, 61–78, 1998.
Van Nieuwenhove, N., Baumann, A., Matthiessen, J., Bonnet, S., and de Vernal,
A.: Sea surface conditions in the southern Nordic Seas during the Holocene
based on dinoflagellate cyst assemblages, Holocene, 26, 722–735, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683615618258, 2016.
Wanner, H., Solomina, O., Grosjean, M., Ritz, S. P., and Jetel, M.: Structure
and origin of Holocene cold events, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 30, 3109–3123, 2011.
Wei, W. and Lohmann, G.: Simulated Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation during
the Holocene, J. Climate, 25, 6989–7002, 2012.
Weissbach, S., Wegner, A., Opel, T., Oerter, H., Vinther, B. M., and Kipfstuhl,
S.: Spatial and temporal oxygen isotope variability in northern Greenland – implications
for a new climate record over the past millennium, Clim. Past, 12, 171–188,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-171-2016, 2016.
Werner, J. P., Divine, D. V., Charpentier Ljungqvist, F., Nilsen, T., and Francus,
P.: Spatio-temporal variability of Arctic summer temperatures over the past two
millennia: an overview of the last major climate anomalies, Clim. Past Discuss.,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-29, in review, 2017.
Wiles, G. C., D'Arrigo, R., Barclay, D., Wilson, R. S., Jarvis, S. K., Vargo,
L., and Frank, D.: Surface air temperature variability reconstructed with tree
rings for the Gulf of Alaska over the past 1200 years, Holocene, 24, 198–208, 2014.
Wilson, R., Anchukaitis, K., Briffa, K. R., Büngten, U., Cook, E., D'Arrigo,
R., Davi, N., Esper, J., Frank, D., Gunnarson, B., Hegerl, G., Helama, S., Klesse,
S., Krustic, P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Myglan, V., Osborn, T. J., Rydval, M.,
Schneider, L., Schurer, A., Wiles, G., Zhang, P., and Zorita, E.: Last millennium
northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I: The long term
context, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 134, 1–18, 2016.
Zhang, L. and Delworth, T. L.: Analysis of the characteristics and mechanisms
of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in a suite of coupled models from the
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, J. Climate, 28, 7678–7701,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00647.1, 2015.
Short summary
Arctic climate variability for the last 2 millennia has been investigated using statistical and signal analyses from North Atlantic, Siberia and Alaska regionally averaged records. A focus on the last 2 centuries shows a climate variability linked to anthropogenic forcing but also a multidecadal variability likely due to regional natural processes acting on the internal climate system. It is an important issue to understand multidecadal variabilities occurring in the instrumental data.
Arctic climate variability for the last 2 millennia has been investigated using statistical and...
