Articles | Volume 11, issue 12
Clim. Past, 11, 1621–1633, 2015
Clim. Past, 11, 1621–1633, 2015
Research article
08 Dec 2015
Research article | 08 Dec 2015

Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions

Z. A. Thomas et al.

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Cited articles

An, Z.: The history and variability of the East Asian paleomonsoon climate, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 19, 171–187, 2000.
Ashwin, P., Wieczorek, S., Vitolo, R., and Cox, P.: Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 370, 1166–1184, 2012.
Baker, A. J., Sodemann, H., Baldini, J. U. L., Breitenbach, S. F. M., Johnson, K. R., Hunen, J. Van, Pingzhong, Z., van Hunen, J., and Pingzhong, Z.: Seasonality of westerly moisture transport in the East Asian Summer Monsoon and its implications for interpreting precipitation δ18O, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 5850–5862,, 2015.
Berger, A. and Loutre, M. F.: Insolation values for the climate of the last 10 million years, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 10, 297–317, 1991.
Short summary
Using a combination of speleothem records and model simulations of the East Asian Monsoon over the penultimate glacial cycle, we search for early warning signals of past tipping points. We detect a characteristic slower response to perturbations prior to an abrupt monsoon shift at the glacial termination; however, we do not detect these signals in the preceding shifts. Our results have important implications for detecting tipping points in palaeoclimate records outside glacial terminations.