Articles | Volume 11, issue 12
Clim. Past, 11, 1621–1633, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015
Clim. Past, 11, 1621–1633, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015
Research article
08 Dec 2015
Research article | 08 Dec 2015

Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions

Z. A. Thomas et al.

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Short summary
Using a combination of speleothem records and model simulations of the East Asian Monsoon over the penultimate glacial cycle, we search for early warning signals of past tipping points. We detect a characteristic slower response to perturbations prior to an abrupt monsoon shift at the glacial termination; however, we do not detect these signals in the preceding shifts. Our results have important implications for detecting tipping points in palaeoclimate records outside glacial terminations.