Articles | Volume 11, issue 12
Clim. Past, 11, 1621–1633, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Clim. Past, 11, 1621–1633, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
08 Dec 2015
Research article
| 08 Dec 2015
Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions
Z. A. Thomas et al.
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Inferring critical transitions in paleoecological time series with irregular sampling and variable time-averaging M. Stegner et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.01.009
- Forecasting critical transitions using data-driven nonstationary dynamical modeling F. Kwasniok 10.1103/PhysRevE.92.062928
- Beyond bifurcation: using complex models to understand and predict abrupt climate change S. Bathiany et al. 10.1093/climsys/dzw004
- Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems R. Karnatak et al. 10.1103/PhysRevE.96.042211
- Changes in El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during the Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1) chronozone revealed by New Zealand tree-rings J. Palmer et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.10.003
- Decadal-scale onset and termination of Antarctic ice-mass loss during the last deglaciation M. Weber et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-27053-6
- A global mean sea surface temperature dataset for the Last Interglacial (129–116 ka) and contribution of thermal expansion to sea level change C. Turney et al. 10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020
- Antarctic climate and ice-sheet configuration during the early Pliocene interglacial at 4.23 Ma N. Golledge et al. 10.5194/cp-13-959-2017
- Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system V. Brovkin et al. 10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5
- A new early warning indicator of abrupt climate change based on the changing normalized dynamic range Q. Wu et al. 10.1002/joc.7000
- Skill (or lack thereof) of data-model fusion techniques to provide an early warning signal for an approaching tipping point R. Singh et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0191768
- Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study T. Mitsui & M. Crucifix 10.1007/s00382-016-3235-z
- How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs H. Wen et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0191439
- Using natural archives to detect climate and environmental tipping points in the Earth System Z. Thomas 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.09.026
- Tipping elements and amplified polar warming during the Last Interglacial Z. Thomas et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106222
12 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Inferring critical transitions in paleoecological time series with irregular sampling and variable time-averaging M. Stegner et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.01.009
- Forecasting critical transitions using data-driven nonstationary dynamical modeling F. Kwasniok 10.1103/PhysRevE.92.062928
- Beyond bifurcation: using complex models to understand and predict abrupt climate change S. Bathiany et al. 10.1093/climsys/dzw004
- Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems R. Karnatak et al. 10.1103/PhysRevE.96.042211
- Changes in El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during the Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1) chronozone revealed by New Zealand tree-rings J. Palmer et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.10.003
- Decadal-scale onset and termination of Antarctic ice-mass loss during the last deglaciation M. Weber et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-27053-6
- A global mean sea surface temperature dataset for the Last Interglacial (129–116 ka) and contribution of thermal expansion to sea level change C. Turney et al. 10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020
- Antarctic climate and ice-sheet configuration during the early Pliocene interglacial at 4.23 Ma N. Golledge et al. 10.5194/cp-13-959-2017
- Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system V. Brovkin et al. 10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5
- A new early warning indicator of abrupt climate change based on the changing normalized dynamic range Q. Wu et al. 10.1002/joc.7000
- Skill (or lack thereof) of data-model fusion techniques to provide an early warning signal for an approaching tipping point R. Singh et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0191768
- Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study T. Mitsui & M. Crucifix 10.1007/s00382-016-3235-z
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs H. Wen et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0191439
- Using natural archives to detect climate and environmental tipping points in the Earth System Z. Thomas 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.09.026
- Tipping elements and amplified polar warming during the Last Interglacial Z. Thomas et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106222
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Short summary
Using a combination of speleothem records and model simulations of the East Asian Monsoon over the penultimate glacial cycle, we search for early warning signals of past tipping points. We detect a characteristic slower response to perturbations prior to an abrupt monsoon shift at the glacial termination; however, we do not detect these signals in the preceding shifts. Our results have important implications for detecting tipping points in palaeoclimate records outside glacial terminations.
Using a combination of speleothem records and model simulations of the East Asian Monsoon over...
