Articles | Volume 11, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Dec 2015
Research article |
| 08 Dec 2015
Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions
Climate Change Research Centre and School of Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4RJ, UK
F. Kwasniok
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
C. A. Boulton
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4RJ, UK
P. M. Cox
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
R. T. Jones
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4RJ, UK
T. M. Lenton
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4RJ, UK
C. S. M. Turney
Climate Change Research Centre and School of Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
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Cited
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Beyond bifurcation: using complex models to understand and predict abrupt climate change S. Bathiany et al. 10.1093/climsys/dzw004
- Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems R. Karnatak et al. 10.1103/PhysRevE.96.042211
- A global mean sea surface temperature dataset for the Last Interglacial (129–116 ka) and contribution of thermal expansion to sea level change C. Turney et al. 10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020
- Antarctic climate and ice-sheet configuration during the early Pliocene interglacial at 4.23 Ma N. Golledge et al. 10.5194/cp-13-959-2017
- Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system V. Brovkin et al. 10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5
- A new early warning indicator of abrupt climate change based on the changing normalized dynamic range Q. Wu et al. 10.1002/joc.7000
- Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems S. George et al. 10.1088/1402-4896/acde20
- What are patterns of rise and decline? A. Raulo et al. 10.1098/rsos.230052
- Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions T. Mitsui & N. Boers 10.5194/cp-20-683-2024
- Inferring critical transitions in paleoecological time series with irregular sampling and variable time-averaging M. Stegner et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.01.009
- Forecasting critical transitions using data-driven nonstationary dynamical modeling F. Kwasniok 10.1103/PhysRevE.92.062928
- Changes in El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during the Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1) chronozone revealed by New Zealand tree-rings J. Palmer et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.10.003
- Decadal-scale onset and termination of Antarctic ice-mass loss during the last deglaciation M. Weber et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-27053-6
- Skill (or lack thereof) of data-model fusion techniques to provide an early warning signal for an approaching tipping point R. Singh et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0191768
- Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study T. Mitsui & M. Crucifix 10.1007/s00382-016-3235-z
- How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs H. Wen et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0191439
- Using natural archives to detect climate and environmental tipping points in the Earth System Z. Thomas 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.09.026
- Tipping elements and amplified polar warming during the Last Interglacial Z. Thomas et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106222
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Beyond bifurcation: using complex models to understand and predict abrupt climate change S. Bathiany et al. 10.1093/climsys/dzw004
- Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems R. Karnatak et al. 10.1103/PhysRevE.96.042211
- A global mean sea surface temperature dataset for the Last Interglacial (129–116 ka) and contribution of thermal expansion to sea level change C. Turney et al. 10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020
- Antarctic climate and ice-sheet configuration during the early Pliocene interglacial at 4.23 Ma N. Golledge et al. 10.5194/cp-13-959-2017
- Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system V. Brovkin et al. 10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5
- A new early warning indicator of abrupt climate change based on the changing normalized dynamic range Q. Wu et al. 10.1002/joc.7000
- Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems S. George et al. 10.1088/1402-4896/acde20
- What are patterns of rise and decline? A. Raulo et al. 10.1098/rsos.230052
- Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions T. Mitsui & N. Boers 10.5194/cp-20-683-2024
- Inferring critical transitions in paleoecological time series with irregular sampling and variable time-averaging M. Stegner et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.01.009
- Forecasting critical transitions using data-driven nonstationary dynamical modeling F. Kwasniok 10.1103/PhysRevE.92.062928
- Changes in El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during the Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1) chronozone revealed by New Zealand tree-rings J. Palmer et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.10.003
- Decadal-scale onset and termination of Antarctic ice-mass loss during the last deglaciation M. Weber et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-27053-6
- Skill (or lack thereof) of data-model fusion techniques to provide an early warning signal for an approaching tipping point R. Singh et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0191768
- Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study T. Mitsui & M. Crucifix 10.1007/s00382-016-3235-z
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs H. Wen et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0191439
- Using natural archives to detect climate and environmental tipping points in the Earth System Z. Thomas 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.09.026
- Tipping elements and amplified polar warming during the Last Interglacial Z. Thomas et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106222
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Latest update: 30 Jul 2025
Short summary
Using a combination of speleothem records and model simulations of the East Asian Monsoon over the penultimate glacial cycle, we search for early warning signals of past tipping points. We detect a characteristic slower response to perturbations prior to an abrupt monsoon shift at the glacial termination; however, we do not detect these signals in the preceding shifts. Our results have important implications for detecting tipping points in palaeoclimate records outside glacial terminations.
Using a combination of speleothem records and model simulations of the East Asian Monsoon over...
