Articles | Volume 10, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1633-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1633-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Last interglacial model–data mismatch of thermal maximum temperatures partially explained
P. Bakker
Earth and Climate Cluster, Department of Earth Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, 1081HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
now at: College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, USA
H. Renssen
Earth and Climate Cluster, Department of Earth Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, 1081HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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Paolo Scussolini, Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Alessio Rovere, Pepijn Bakker, Dim Coumou, Hans Renssen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Clim. Past, 19, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, 2023
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We reconstruct sea level extremes due to storm surges in a past warmer climate. We employ a novel combination of paleoclimate modeling and global ocean hydrodynamic modeling. We find that during the Last Interglacial, about 127 000 years ago, seasonal sea level extremes were indeed significantly different – higher or lower – on long stretches of the global coast. These changes are associated with different patterns of atmospheric storminess linked with meridional shifts in wind bands.
Pepijn Bakker, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2523–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, 2022
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Natural climate variability plays an important role in the discussion of past and future climate change. Here we study centennial temperature variability and the role of large-scale ocean circulation variability using different climate models, geological reconstructions and temperature observations. Unfortunately, uncertainties in models and geological reconstructions are such that more research is needed before we can describe the characteristics of natural centennial temperature variability.
Pepijn Bakker, Irina Rogozhina, Ute Merkel, and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 16, 371–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-371-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-371-2020, 2020
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Northeastern Siberia is currently known for its harsh cold climate, but remarkably it did not experience large-scale glaciation during the last ice age. We show that the region is also exceptional in climate models. As a result of subtle changes in model setup, climate models show a strong divergence in simulated glacial summer temperatures that is ultimately driven by changes in the circumpolar atmospheric stationary wave pattern and associated northward heat transport to northeastern Siberia.
Amaelle Landais, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Emilie Capron, Petra M. Langebroek, Pepijn Bakker, Emma J. Stone, Niklaus Merz, Christoph C. Raible, Hubertus Fischer, Anaïs Orsi, Frédéric Prié, Bo Vinther, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
Clim. Past, 12, 1933–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, 2016
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The last lnterglacial (LIG; 116 000 to 129 000 years before present) surface temperature at the upstream Greenland NEEM deposition site is estimated to be warmer by +7 to +11 °C compared to the preindustrial period. We show that under such warm temperatures, melting of snow probably led to a significant surface melting. There is a paradox between the extent of the Greenland ice sheet during the LIG and the strong warming during this period that models cannot solve.
Pepijn Bakker and Andreas Schmittner
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-79, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We present an AMOC-emulator framework consisting of a box model and a statistical tuning methodology that allows us to mimic the behaviour of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in any complex global climate model. The simplicity of the AMOC-emulator allows us to run large numbers of simulations, test the importance of a range of uncertainties and thus provide probabilistic AMOC projections driven by future climate change including the partial melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
C. Morrill, A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 9, 955–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, 2013
P. Bakker, E. J. Stone, S. Charbit, M. Gröger, U. Krebs-Kanzow, S. P. Ritz, V. Varma, V. Khon, D. J. Lunt, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Prange, H. Renssen, B. Schneider, and M. Schulz
Clim. Past, 9, 605–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, 2013
Paolo Scussolini, Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Alessio Rovere, Pepijn Bakker, Dim Coumou, Hans Renssen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Clim. Past, 19, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, 2023
Short summary
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We reconstruct sea level extremes due to storm surges in a past warmer climate. We employ a novel combination of paleoclimate modeling and global ocean hydrodynamic modeling. We find that during the Last Interglacial, about 127 000 years ago, seasonal sea level extremes were indeed significantly different – higher or lower – on long stretches of the global coast. These changes are associated with different patterns of atmospheric storminess linked with meridional shifts in wind bands.
Pepijn Bakker, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2523–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, 2022
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Natural climate variability plays an important role in the discussion of past and future climate change. Here we study centennial temperature variability and the role of large-scale ocean circulation variability using different climate models, geological reconstructions and temperature observations. Unfortunately, uncertainties in models and geological reconstructions are such that more research is needed before we can describe the characteristics of natural centennial temperature variability.
Pepijn Bakker, Irina Rogozhina, Ute Merkel, and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 16, 371–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-371-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-371-2020, 2020
Short summary
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Northeastern Siberia is currently known for its harsh cold climate, but remarkably it did not experience large-scale glaciation during the last ice age. We show that the region is also exceptional in climate models. As a result of subtle changes in model setup, climate models show a strong divergence in simulated glacial summer temperatures that is ultimately driven by changes in the circumpolar atmospheric stationary wave pattern and associated northward heat transport to northeastern Siberia.
Amaelle Landais, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Emilie Capron, Petra M. Langebroek, Pepijn Bakker, Emma J. Stone, Niklaus Merz, Christoph C. Raible, Hubertus Fischer, Anaïs Orsi, Frédéric Prié, Bo Vinther, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
Clim. Past, 12, 1933–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, 2016
Short summary
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The last lnterglacial (LIG; 116 000 to 129 000 years before present) surface temperature at the upstream Greenland NEEM deposition site is estimated to be warmer by +7 to +11 °C compared to the preindustrial period. We show that under such warm temperatures, melting of snow probably led to a significant surface melting. There is a paradox between the extent of the Greenland ice sheet during the LIG and the strong warming during this period that models cannot solve.
Pepijn Bakker and Andreas Schmittner
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-79, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We present an AMOC-emulator framework consisting of a box model and a statistical tuning methodology that allows us to mimic the behaviour of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in any complex global climate model. The simplicity of the AMOC-emulator allows us to run large numbers of simulations, test the importance of a range of uncertainties and thus provide probabilistic AMOC projections driven by future climate change including the partial melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
M. Bügelmayer, D. M. Roche, and H. Renssen
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D. C. Kitover, R. van Balen, D. M. Roche, J. Vandenberghe, and H. Renssen
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M. Bügelmayer, D. M. Roche, and H. Renssen
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C. Morrill, A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 9, 955–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, 2013
P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, 2013
P. Bakker, E. J. Stone, S. Charbit, M. Gröger, U. Krebs-Kanzow, S. P. Ritz, V. Varma, V. Khon, D. J. Lunt, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Prange, H. Renssen, B. Schneider, and M. Schulz
Clim. Past, 9, 605–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Millenial/D-O
High-resolution LGM climate of Europe and the Alpine region using the regional climate model WRF
Causes of the weak emergent constraint on climate sensitivity at the Last Glacial Maximum
Does a difference in ice sheets between Marine Isotope Stages 3 and 5a affect the duration of stadials? Implications from hosing experiments
Impact of mid-glacial ice sheets on deep ocean circulation and global climate
A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP
Equilibrium simulations of Marine Isotope Stage 3 climate
Heinrich events show two-stage climate response in transient glacial simulations
Hosed vs. unhosed: interruptions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a global coupled model, with and without freshwater forcing
The climate reconstruction in Shandong Peninsula, northern China, during the last millennium based on stalagmite laminae together with a comparison to δ18O
Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations
Hindcasting the continuum of Dansgaard–Oeschger variability: mechanisms, patterns and timing
Climatic impacts of fresh water hosing under Last Glacial Maximum conditions: a multi-model study
A mechanism for dust-induced destabilization of glacial climates
The climate in the Baltic Sea region during the last millennium simulated with a regional climate model
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Heinrich event 1: an example of dynamical ice-sheet reaction to oceanic changes
Weakened atmospheric energy transport feedback in cold glacial climates
Water vapour source impacts on oxygen isotope variability in tropical precipitation during Heinrich events
Glacial climate sensitivity to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: results from the IPSL model
Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Sebastian Lienert, Guillaume Jouvet, Patricio Velasquez Alvarez, Basil Davis, Patrick Ludwig, Fortunat Joos, and Christoph C. Raible
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We present a series of experiments conducted for the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka) over Europe using the regional climate Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolutions. The model, with new developments better suited to paleo-studies, agrees well with pollen-based climate reconstructions. This agreement is improved when considering different sources of uncertainty. The effect of convection-permitting resolutions is also assessed.
Martin Renoult, Navjit Sagoo, Jiang Zhu, and Thorsten Mauritsen
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The relationship between the Last Glacial Maximum and the sensitivity of climate models to a doubling of CO2 can be used to estimate the true sensitivity of the Earth. However, this relationship has varied in successive model generations. In this study, we assess multiple processes at the Last Glacial Maximum which weaken this relationship. For example, how models respond to the presence of ice sheets is a large contributor of uncertainty.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Akira Oka, Takahito Mitsui, and Fuyuki Saito
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Glacial periods underwent climate shifts between warm states and cold states on a millennial timescale. Frequency of these climate shifts varied along time: it was shorter during mid-glacial period compared to early glacial period. Here, from climate simulations of early and mid-glacial periods with a comprehensive climate model, we show that the larger ice sheet in the mid-glacial compared to early glacial periods could contribute to the frequent climate shifts during the mid-glacial period.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Akira Oka
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We perform simulations of Marine Isotope Stage 3 and 5a with an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to explore the effect of the southward expansion of mid-glacial ice sheets on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and climate. We find that the southward expansion of the mid-glacial ice sheet causes a surface cooling over the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, but it exerts a small impact on the AMOC due to the competing effects of surface wind and surface cooling.
Martin Renoult, James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Navjit Sagoo, Clare Flynn, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Qiong Zhang, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 16, 1715–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, 2020
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Interest in past climates as sources of information for the climate system has grown in recent years. In particular, studies of the warm mid-Pliocene and cold Last Glacial Maximum showed relationships between the tropical surface temperature of the Earth and its sensitivity to an abrupt doubling of atmospheric CO2. In this study, we develop a new and promising statistical method and obtain similar results as previously observed, wherein the sensitivity does not seem to exceed extreme values.
Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Mats Bentsen, Ingo Bethke, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 15, 1133–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1133-2019, 2019
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We present an equilibrium simulation of the climate of Marine Isotope Stage 3, with an IPCC-class model with a relatively high model resolution and a long integration. The simulated climate resembles a warm interstadial state, as indicated by reconstructions of Greenland temperature, sea ice extent, and AMOC. Sensitivity experiments to changes in atmospheric CO2 levels and ice sheet size show that the model is in a relatively stable climate state without multiple equilibria.
Florian Andreas Ziemen, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Marlene Klockmann, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Clim. Past, 15, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-153-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-153-2019, 2019
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Heinrich events are among the dominant modes of glacial climate variability. They are caused by massive ice discharges from the Laurentide Ice Sheet into the North Atlantic. In previous studies, the climate changes were either seen as resulting from freshwater released from the melt of the discharged icebergs or by ice sheet elevation changes. With a coupled ice sheet–climate model, we show that both effects are relevant with the freshwater effects preceding the ice sheet elevation effects.
Nicolas Brown and Eric D. Galbraith
Clim. Past, 12, 1663–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1663-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1663-2016, 2016
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An Earth system model is used to explore variability in the global impacts of AMOC disruptions. The model exhibits spontaneous AMOC oscillations under particular boundary conditions, which we compare with freshwater-forced disruptions. We find that the global impacts are similar whether the AMOC disruptions are spontaneous or forced. Freshwater forcing generally amplifies the global impacts, with tropical precipitation and the stability of polar haloclines showing particular sensitivity.
Qing Wang, Houyun Zhou, Ke Cheng, Hong Chi, Chuan-Chou Shen, Changshan Wang, and Qianqian Ma
Clim. Past, 12, 871–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-871-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-871-2016, 2016
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The upper part of stalagmite ky1 (from top to 42.769 mm depth), consisting of 678 laminae, was collected from a cave in northern China, located in the East Asia monsoon area. The time of deposition ranges from AD 1217±20 to 1894±20. The analysis shows that both the variations in the thickness of the laminae themselves and the fluctuating degree of variation in the thickness of the laminae of stalagmite ky1 have obviously staged characteristics and synchronized with climate.
Svenja E. Bierstedt, Birgit Hünicke, Eduardo Zorita, Sebastian Wagner, and Juan José Gómez-Navarro
Clim. Past, 12, 317–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-317-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-317-2016, 2016
L. Menviel, A. Timmermann, T. Friedrich, and M. H. England
Clim. Past, 10, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-63-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-63-2014, 2014
M. Kageyama, U. Merkel, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Prange, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Lohmann, R. Ohgaito, D. M. Roche, J. Singarayer, D. Swingedouw, and X Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, 2013
B. F. Farrell and D. S. Abbot
Clim. Past, 8, 2061–2067, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-2061-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-2061-2012, 2012
S. Schimanke, H. E. M. Meier, E. Kjellström, G. Strandberg, and R. Hordoir
Clim. Past, 8, 1419–1433, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1419-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1419-2012, 2012
R. Banderas, J. Álvarez-Solas, and M. Montoya
Clim. Past, 8, 1011–1021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1011-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1011-2012, 2012
J. Álvarez-Solas, M. Montoya, C. Ritz, G. Ramstein, S. Charbit, C. Dumas, K. Nisancioglu, T. Dokken, and A. Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 7, 1297–1306, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1297-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1297-2011, 2011
I. Cvijanovic, P. L. Langen, and E. Kaas
Clim. Past, 7, 1061–1073, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1061-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1061-2011, 2011
S. C. Lewis, A. N. LeGrande, M. Kelley, and G. A. Schmidt
Clim. Past, 6, 325–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-325-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-325-2010, 2010
M. Kageyama, J. Mignot, D. Swingedouw, C. Marzin, R. Alkama, and O. Marti
Clim. Past, 5, 551–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-551-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-551-2009, 2009
Cited articles
Bakker, P., Van Meerbeeck, C. J., and Renssen, H.: Sensitivity of the North Atlantic climate to Greenland Ice Sheet melting during the Last Interglacial, Clim. Past, 8, 995–1009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-995-2012, 2012.
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