Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-137-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-137-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Limited response of peatland CH4 emissions to abrupt Atlantic Ocean circulation changes in glacial climates
P. O. Hopcroft
Bristol Research Initiative for the Dynamic Global Environment (BRIDGE), School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
P. J. Valdes
Bristol Research Initiative for the Dynamic Global Environment (BRIDGE), School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
R. Wania
formerly at: Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution, CNRS – UMR5554, Universite Montpellier 2, Place Eugene Bataillon, 34090 Montpellier, France
D. J. Beerling
Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK
Related authors
Magali Verkerk, Thomas J. Aubry, Christopher Smith, Peter O. Hopcroft, Michael Sigl, Jessica E. Tierney, Kevin Anchukaitis, Matthew Osman, Anja Schmidt, and Matthew Toohey
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3635, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3635, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions can trigger global cooling, affecting human societies. Using ice-core records and simple climate model to simulate volcanic effect over the last 8500 years, we show that volcanic eruptions cool climate by 0.12 °C on average. By comparing model results with temperature recorded by tree rings over the last 1000 years, we demonstrate that our models can predict the large-scale cooling caused by volcanic eruptions, and can be used in case of large eruption in the future.
Zhen Zhang, Benjamin Poulter, Joe R. Melton, William J. Riley, George H. Allen, David J. Beerling, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Philippe Ciais, Nicola Gedney, Peter O. Hopcroft, Akihiko Ito, Robert B. Jackson, Atul K. Jain, Katherine Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Sara Knox, Tingting Li, Xin Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle McDonald, Gavin McNicol, Paul A. Miller, Jurek Müller, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Zhangcai Qin, Ryan M. Riggs, Marielle Saunois, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Xiaoming Xu, Yuanzhi Yao, Xi Yi, Wenxin Zhang, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1584, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses global methane emissions from wetlands between 2000 and 2020 using multiple models. We found that wetland emissions increased by 6–7 Tg CH4 per year in the 2010s compared to the 2000s. Rising temperatures primarily drove this increase, while changes in precipitation and CO2 levels also played roles. Our findings highlight the importance of wetlands in the global methane budget and the need for continuous monitoring to understand their impact on climate change.
Marielle Saunois, Adrien Martinez, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Peter Raymond, Pierre Regnier, Joseph G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Xin Lan, George H. Allen, David Bastviken, David J. Beerling, Dmitry A. Belikov, Donald R. Blake, Simona Castaldi, Monica Crippa, Bridget R. Deemer, Fraser Dennison, Giuseppe Etiope, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Meredith A. Holgerson, Peter O. Hopcroft, Gustaf Hugelius, Akihito Ito, Atul K. Jain, Rajesh Janardanan, Matthew S. Johnson, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Ronny Lauerwald, Tingting Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe R. Melton, Jens Mühle, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Shufen Pan, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Judith A. Rosentreter, Motoki Sasakawa, Arjo Segers, Steven J. Smith, Emily H. Stanley, Joel Thanwerdas, Hanquin Tian, Aki Tsuruta, Francesco N. Tubiello, Thomas S. Weber, Guido van der Werf, Doug E. Worthy, Yi Xi, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2). A consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists synthesize and update the budget of the sources and sinks of CH4. This edition benefits from important progresses in estimating emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. For the 2010s decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated at 575 Tg CH4 yr-1, including ~65 % from anthropogenic sources.
Charles J. R. Williams, Alistair A. Sellar, Xin Ren, Alan M. Haywood, Peter Hopcroft, Stephen J. Hunter, William H. G. Roberts, Robin S. Smith, Emma J. Stone, Julia C. Tindall, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 17, 2139–2163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from a simulation of the mid-Pliocene (approximately 3 million years ago) using the latest version of the UK’s climate model. The simulation reproduces temperatures as expected and shows some improvement relative to previous versions of the same model. The simulation is, however, arguably too warm when compared to other models and available observations.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Paul J. Valdes, Edward Armstrong, Marcus P. S. Badger, Catherine D. Bradshaw, Fran Bragg, Michel Crucifix, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Jonathan J. Day, Alex Farnsworth, Chris Gordon, Peter O. Hopcroft, Alan T. Kennedy, Natalie S. Lord, Dan J. Lunt, Alice Marzocchi, Louise M. Parry, Vicky Pope, William H. G. Roberts, Emma J. Stone, Gregory J. L. Tourte, and Jonny H. T. Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3715–3743, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3715-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3715-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we describe the family of climate models used by the BRIDGE research group at the University of Bristol as well as by various other institutions. These models are based on the UK Met Office HadCM3 models and here we describe the various modifications which have been made as well as the key features of a number of configurations in use.
Magali Verkerk, Thomas J. Aubry, Christopher Smith, Peter O. Hopcroft, Michael Sigl, Jessica E. Tierney, Kevin Anchukaitis, Matthew Osman, Anja Schmidt, and Matthew Toohey
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3635, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3635, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions can trigger global cooling, affecting human societies. Using ice-core records and simple climate model to simulate volcanic effect over the last 8500 years, we show that volcanic eruptions cool climate by 0.12 °C on average. By comparing model results with temperature recorded by tree rings over the last 1000 years, we demonstrate that our models can predict the large-scale cooling caused by volcanic eruptions, and can be used in case of large eruption in the future.
Zhen Zhang, Benjamin Poulter, Joe R. Melton, William J. Riley, George H. Allen, David J. Beerling, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Philippe Ciais, Nicola Gedney, Peter O. Hopcroft, Akihiko Ito, Robert B. Jackson, Atul K. Jain, Katherine Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Sara Knox, Tingting Li, Xin Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle McDonald, Gavin McNicol, Paul A. Miller, Jurek Müller, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Zhangcai Qin, Ryan M. Riggs, Marielle Saunois, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Xiaoming Xu, Yuanzhi Yao, Xi Yi, Wenxin Zhang, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1584, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses global methane emissions from wetlands between 2000 and 2020 using multiple models. We found that wetland emissions increased by 6–7 Tg CH4 per year in the 2010s compared to the 2000s. Rising temperatures primarily drove this increase, while changes in precipitation and CO2 levels also played roles. Our findings highlight the importance of wetlands in the global methane budget and the need for continuous monitoring to understand their impact on climate change.
Marielle Saunois, Adrien Martinez, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Peter Raymond, Pierre Regnier, Joseph G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Xin Lan, George H. Allen, David Bastviken, David J. Beerling, Dmitry A. Belikov, Donald R. Blake, Simona Castaldi, Monica Crippa, Bridget R. Deemer, Fraser Dennison, Giuseppe Etiope, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Meredith A. Holgerson, Peter O. Hopcroft, Gustaf Hugelius, Akihito Ito, Atul K. Jain, Rajesh Janardanan, Matthew S. Johnson, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Ronny Lauerwald, Tingting Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe R. Melton, Jens Mühle, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Shufen Pan, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Judith A. Rosentreter, Motoki Sasakawa, Arjo Segers, Steven J. Smith, Emily H. Stanley, Joel Thanwerdas, Hanquin Tian, Aki Tsuruta, Francesco N. Tubiello, Thomas S. Weber, Guido van der Werf, Doug E. Worthy, Yi Xi, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2). A consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists synthesize and update the budget of the sources and sinks of CH4. This edition benefits from important progresses in estimating emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. For the 2010s decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated at 575 Tg CH4 yr-1, including ~65 % from anthropogenic sources.
Maria Val Martin, Elena Blanc-Betes, Ka Ming Fung, Euripides P. Kantzas, Ilsa B. Kantola, Isabella Chiaravalloti, Lyla L. Taylor, Louisa K. Emmons, William R. Wieder, Noah J. Planavsky, Michael D. Masters, Evan H. DeLucia, Amos P. K. Tai, and David J. Beerling
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5783–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5783-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5783-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) is a CO2 removal strategy that involves applying crushed rocks (e.g., basalt) to agricultural soils. However, unintended processes within the N cycle due to soil pH changes may affect the climate benefits of C sequestration. ERW could drive changes in soil emissions of non-CO2 GHGs (N2O) and trace gases (NO and NH3) that may affect air quality. We present a new improved N cycling scheme for the land model (CLM5) to evaluate ERW effects on soil gas N emissions.
Negar Vakilifard, Richard G. Williams, Philip B. Holden, Katherine Turner, Neil R. Edwards, and David J. Beerling
Biogeosciences, 19, 4249–4265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To remain within the Paris climate agreement, there is an increasing need to develop and implement carbon capture and sequestration techniques. The global climate benefits of implementing negative emission technologies over the next century are assessed using an Earth system model covering a wide range of plausible climate states. In some model realisations, there is continued warming after emissions cease. This continued warming is avoided if negative emissions are incorporated.
Charles J. R. Williams, Alistair A. Sellar, Xin Ren, Alan M. Haywood, Peter Hopcroft, Stephen J. Hunter, William H. G. Roberts, Robin S. Smith, Emma J. Stone, Julia C. Tindall, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 17, 2139–2163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from a simulation of the mid-Pliocene (approximately 3 million years ago) using the latest version of the UK’s climate model. The simulation reproduces temperatures as expected and shows some improvement relative to previous versions of the same model. The simulation is, however, arguably too warm when compared to other models and available observations.
Lyla L. Taylor, Charles T. Driscoll, Peter M. Groffman, Greg H. Rau, Joel D. Blum, and David J. Beerling
Biogeosciences, 18, 169–188, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-169-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) is a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategy involving soil amendments with silicate rock dust. Over 15 years, a small silicate application led to net CDR of 8.5–11.5 t CO2/ha in an acid-rain-impacted New Hampshire forest. We accounted for the total carbon cost of treatment and compared effects with an adjacent, untreated forest. Our results suggest ERW can improve the greenhouse gas balance of similar forests in addition to mitigating acid rain effects.
David J. Wilton, Marcus P. S. Badger, Euripides P. Kantzas, Richard D. Pancost, Paul J. Valdes, and David J. Beerling
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1351–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1351-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1351-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Methane is an important greenhouse gas naturally produced in wetlands (areas of land inundated with water). Models of the Earth's past climate need estimates of the amounts of methane wetlands produce; and in order to calculate those we need to model wetlands. In this work we develop a method for modelling the fraction of an area of the Earth that is wetland, repeat this over all the Earth's land surface and apply this to a study of the Earth as it was around 50 million years ago.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Paul J. Valdes, Edward Armstrong, Marcus P. S. Badger, Catherine D. Bradshaw, Fran Bragg, Michel Crucifix, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Jonathan J. Day, Alex Farnsworth, Chris Gordon, Peter O. Hopcroft, Alan T. Kennedy, Natalie S. Lord, Dan J. Lunt, Alice Marzocchi, Louise M. Parry, Vicky Pope, William H. G. Roberts, Emma J. Stone, Gregory J. L. Tourte, and Jonny H. T. Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3715–3743, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3715-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3715-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we describe the family of climate models used by the BRIDGE research group at the University of Bristol as well as by various other institutions. These models are based on the UK Met Office HadCM3 models and here we describe the various modifications which have been made as well as the key features of a number of configurations in use.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, Karina von Schuckmann, David J. Beerling, Junji Cao, Shaun Marcott, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Michael J. Prather, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeremy Shakun, Pete Smith, Andrew Lacis, Gary Russell, and Reto Ruedy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 577–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global temperature now exceeds +1.25 °C relative to 1880–1920, similar to warmth of the Eemian period. Keeping warming less than 1.5 °C or CO2 below 350 ppm now requires extraction of CO2 from the air. If rapid phaseout of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, most extraction can be via improved agricultural and forestry practices. In contrast, continued high emissions places a burden on young people of massive technological CO2 extraction with large risks, high costs and uncertain feasibility.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
K. Nishina, A. Ito, P. Falloon, A. D. Friend, D. J. Beerling, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, R. Kahana, E. Kato, W. Lucht, M. Lomas, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, L. Warszawaski, and T. Yokohata
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Our study focused on uncertainties in terrestrial C cycling under newly developed scenarios with CMIP5. This study presents first results for examining relative uncertainties of projected terrestrial C cycling in multiple projection components. Only using our new model inter-comparison project data sets enables us to evaluate various uncertainty sources in projection periods. The information on relative uncertainties is useful for climate science and climate change impact evaluation.
J. B. Fisher, M. Sikka, W. C. Oechel, D. N. Huntzinger, J. R. Melton, C. D. Koven, A. Ahlström, M. A. Arain, I. Baker, J. M. Chen, P. Ciais, C. Davidson, M. Dietze, B. El-Masri, D. Hayes, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, P. E. Levy, M. R. Lomas, B. Poulter, D. Price, A. K. Sahoo, K. Schaefer, H. Tian, E. Tomelleri, H. Verbeeck, N. Viovy, R. Wania, N. Zeng, and C. E. Miller
Biogeosciences, 11, 4271–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014, 2014
K. Nishina, A. Ito, D. J. Beerling, P. Cadule, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, P. Falloon, A. D. Friend, R. Kahana, E. Kato, R. Keribin, W. Lucht, M. Lomas, T. T. Rademacher, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, N. Vuichard, L. Warszawaski, and T. Yokohata
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 197–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014, 2014
O. J. Squire, A. T. Archibald, N. L. Abraham, D. J. Beerling, C. N. Hewitt, J. Lathière, R. C. Pike, P. J. Telford, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1011–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1011-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1011-2014, 2014
J. Quirk, J. R. Leake, S. A. Banwart, L. L. Taylor, and D. J. Beerling
Biogeosciences, 11, 321–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-321-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-321-2014, 2014
R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 617–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, 2013
J. R. Melton, R. Wania, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, D. J. Beerling, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, P. O. Hopcroft, D. P. Lettenmaier, W. J. Riley, J. S. Singarayer, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, S. Zürcher, V. Brovkin, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 10, 753–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Greenhouse Gases | Archive: Ice Cores | Timescale: Millenial/D-O
Methane, ethane, and propane production in Greenland ice core samples and a first isotopic characterization of excess methane
CH4 and N2O fluctuations during the penultimate deglaciation
An 83 000-year-old ice core from Roosevelt Island, Ross Sea, Antarctica
Antarctic temperature and CO2: near-synchrony yet variable phasing during the last deglaciation
Analytical constraints on layered gas trapping and smoothing of atmospheric variability in ice under low-accumulation conditions
NGRIP CH4 concentration from 120 to 10 kyr before present and its relation to a δ15N temperature reconstruction from the same ice core
High-resolution glacial and deglacial record of atmospheric methane by continuous-flow and laser spectrometer analysis along the NEEM ice core
Enrichment in 13C of atmospheric CH4 during the Younger Dryas termination
A refined TALDICE-1a age scale from 55 to 112 ka before present for the Talos Dome ice core based on high-resolution methane measurements
Michaela Mühl, Jochen Schmitt, Barbara Seth, James E. Lee, Jon S. Edwards, Edward J. Brook, Thomas Blunier, and Hubertus Fischer
Clim. Past, 19, 999–1025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-999-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-999-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our ice core measurements show that methane, ethane, and propane concentrations are significantly elevated above their past atmospheric background for Greenland ice samples containing mineral dust. The underlying co-production process happens during the classical discrete wet extraction of air from the ice sample and affects previous reconstructions of the inter-polar difference of methane as well as methane stable isotope records derived from dust-rich Greenland ice.
Loïc Schmidely, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jochen Schmitt, Juhyeong Han, Lucas Silva, Jinwha Shin, Fortunat Joos, Jérôme Chappellaz, Hubertus Fischer, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 17, 1627–1643, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1627-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using ancient gas trapped in polar glaciers, we reconstructed the atmospheric concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide over the penultimate deglaciation to study their response to major climate changes. We show this deglaciation to be characterized by modes of methane and nitrous oxide variability that are also found during the last deglaciation and glacial cycle.
James E. Lee, Edward J. Brook, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Christo Buizert, Troy Baisden, Thomas Blunier, V. Gabriela Ciobanu, Howard Conway, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Tyler J. Fudge, Richard Hindmarsh, Elizabeth D. Keller, Frédéric Parrenin, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Paul Vallelonga, Edwin D. Waddington, and Mai Winstrup
Clim. Past, 16, 1691–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1691-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1691-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Roosevelt Island ice core was drilled to investigate climate from the eastern Ross Sea, West Antarctica. We describe the ice age-scale and gas age-scale of the ice core for 0–763 m (83 000 years BP). Old ice near the bottom of the core implies the ice dome existed throughout the last glacial period and that ice streaming was active in the region. Variations in methane, similar to those used as evidence of early human influence on climate, were observed prior to significant human populations.
Jai Chowdhry Beeman, Léa Gest, Frédéric Parrenin, Dominique Raynaud, Tyler J. Fudge, Christo Buizert, and Edward J. Brook
Clim. Past, 15, 913–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-913-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric CO2 was likely an important amplifier of global-scale orbitally-driven warming during the last deglaciation. However, the mechanisms responsible for the rise in CO2, and the coherent rise in Antarctic isotopic temperature records, are under debate. Using a stochastic method, we detect variable lags between coherent changes in Antarctic temperature and CO2. This implies that the climate mechanisms linking the two records changed or experienced modulations during the deglaciation.
Kévin Fourteau, Xavier Faïn, Patricia Martinerie, Amaëlle Landais, Alexey A. Ekaykin, Vladimir Ya. Lipenkov, and Jérôme Chappellaz
Clim. Past, 13, 1815–1830, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1815-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1815-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We measured methane concentrations from a polar ice core to quantify the differences between the ice record and the past true atmospheric conditions. Two effects were investigated by combining data analysis and modeling: the stratification of polar snow before gas enclosure driving chronological hiatuses in the record and the gradual formation of bubbles in the ice attenuating fast atmospheric variations. This study will contribute to improving future climatic interpretations from ice archives.
M. Baumgartner, P. Kindler, O. Eicher, G. Floch, A. Schilt, J. Schwander, R. Spahni, E. Capron, J. Chappellaz, M. Leuenberger, H. Fischer, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 10, 903–920, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-903-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-903-2014, 2014
J. Chappellaz, C. Stowasser, T. Blunier, D. Baslev-Clausen, E. J. Brook, R. Dallmayr, X. Faïn, J. E. Lee, L. E. Mitchell, O. Pascual, D. Romanini, J. Rosen, and S. Schüpbach
Clim. Past, 9, 2579–2593, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2579-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2579-2013, 2013
J. R. Melton, H. Schaefer, and M. J. Whiticar
Clim. Past, 8, 1177–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1177-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1177-2012, 2012
S. Schüpbach, U. Federer, M. Bigler, H. Fischer, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 7, 1001–1009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1001-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1001-2011, 2011
Cited articles
Baumgartner, M., Schilt, A., Eicher, O., Schmitt, J., Schwander, J., Spahni, R., Fischer, H., and Stocker, T. F.: High-resolution interpolar difference of atmospheric methane around the Last Glacial Maximum, Biogeosciences, 9, 3961–3977, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-3961-2012, 2012.
Beerling, D. J. and Woodward, F. I.: Vegetation and the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle: Modelling the first 400 Million Years, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001.
Berger, A. and Loutre, M.: Insolation values for the climate of the last 10 million years, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 10, 297–317, 1991.
Blunier, T. and Brook, E.: Timing of Millennial-Scale Climate Change in Antarctica and Greenland During the Last Glacial Period, Science, 291, 109–112, 2001.
Brook, E. J., Harder, S., Severinghaus, J., Steig, E. J., and Sucher, C. M.: On the origin and timing of rapid changes in atmospheric methane during the last glacial period, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 14, 559–572, 2000.
Cao, M., Marshall, S., and Gregson, K.: Global carbon exchange and methane emissions from natural wetlands: Application of a process-based model, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 14399–14414, 1996.
Chen, Y.-H. and Prinn, R.: Estimation of atmospheric methane emissions between 1996 and 2001 using a three-dimensional global chemical transport model, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D10307, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006058, 2006.
Clement, A. and Peterson, L.: Mechanisms of Abrupt Climate Change of the Last Glacial Period, Rev. Geophys., 46, RG4002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006RG000204, 2008.
Dällenbach, A., Blunier, T., Flückiger, J., Stauffer, B., Chappellaz, J., and Raynaud, D.: Changes in the atmospheric CH4 gradient between Greenland and Antarctica during the Last Glacial and the transition to the Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1005–1008, 2000.
Daniau, A.-L., Harrison, S., and Bartlein, P.: Fire regimes during the Last Glacial, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 2918–2930, 2010.
Elliot, M., Labeyrie, L., and Duplessy, J.-C.: Changes in North Atlantic deep-water formation associated with the Dansgaard–Oeschger temperature oscillations (60–10 ka), Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 1153–1165, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00137-8, 2002.
Fan, Y. and Miguez-Macho, G.: A simple hydrologic framework for simulating wetlands in climate and earth system models, Clim. Dynam., 37, 253–278, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0829-8, 2011.
Flückiger, J., Blunier, T., Stauffer, B., Chappellaz, J., Spahni, R., Kawamura, K., Schwander, J., Stocker, T. F., and Dahl-Jensen, D.: N2O and CH4 variations during the last glacial epoch: Insight into global processes, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 18, GB1020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GB002122, 2004.
Frolking, S., Roulet, N. T., Tuittila, E., Bubier, J. L., Quillet, A., Talbot, J., and Richard, P. J. H.: A new model of Holocene peatland net primary production, decomposition, water balance, and peat accumulation, Earth Syst. Dynam., 1, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-1-1-2010, 2010.
Ganopolski, A. and Rahmstorf, S.: Rapid changes of glacial climate simulated in a coupled climate model, Nature, 409, 153–155, 2001.
Gerten, D., Schaphoff, S., Haberlandt, U., Lucht, W., and Sitch, S.: Terrestrial vegetation and water balance: Hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model, J. Hydrol., 286, 249–270, 2004.
Gherardi, J.-M., Labeyrie, L., McManus, J. F., Francois, R., Skinner, L. C., and Cortijo, E.: Evidence from the northeastern atlantic basin for variability in the rate of the meridional overturning circulation through the last deglaciation, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 240, 710–723, 2005.
Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C. A., Banks, H., Gregory, J. M., Johns, T. C., Mitchell, J. F. B., and Wood, R. A.: The simulation of sst, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments, Clim. Dynam., 16, 147–168, 2000.
Granberg, G., Grip, H., Ottosson Löfvenius, M., Sundh, I., Svensson, B. H., and Nilsson, M.: A simple model for simulation of water content, soil frost, and soil temperatures in boreal mixed mires, Water Resour. Res., 35, 3771–3782, 1999.
Halsey, L., Vitt, D., and Gignac, L.: phSphagnum-dominated Peatlands in North America Since the Last Glacial Maximum: Their Occurrence and Extent, Bryologist, 103, 334–352, 2000.
Harrison, S. and Sanchez-Goñi, M.: Global patterns of vegetation response to millennial-scale variability and rapid climate change during the last glacial period, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 21–22, 2957–2980, 2010.
Hendy, I. and Kennett, J.: Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles and the California Current System: Planktonic foraminiferal response to rapid climate change in Santa Barbara Basin, Ocean Drilling Program hole 893A, Paleoceanography, 15, 30–42, 2000.
Hopcroft, P., Valdes, P., and Beerling, D.: Simulating idealized Dansgaard–Oeschger events and their potential impacts on the global methane cycle, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 30, 3258–3268, 2011.
Huber, C., Leuenberger, M., Spahni, R., Flückiger, J., Schwander, J., Stocker, T., Johnsen, S., Landais, A., and Jouzel, J.: Isotope calibrated Greenland temperature record over Marine Isotope Stage 3 and its relation to CH4, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 243, 504–519, 2006.
Kanner, L. C., Burns, S. J., Cheng, H., and Edwards, R. L.: High-Latitude Forcing of the South American Summer Monsoon During the Last Glacial, Science, 335, 570–573, 2012.
Kleinen, T., Brovkin, V., and Schuldt, R. J.: A dynamic model of wetland extent and peat accumulation: results for the Holocene, Biogeosciences, 9, 235–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-235-2012, 2012.
Korhola, A., Ruppel, M., Seppä, H., Väliranta, M., Virtanen, T., and Weckström, J.: The importance of northern peatland expansion to the late-Holocene rise of atmospheric methane, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 611–617, 2009.
Levine, J., Wolff, E., Jones, A., Sime, L., Valdes, P., Archibald, A., Carver, G., Warwick, N., and Pyle, J.: Reconciling the changes in atmospheric methane sources and sinks between the Last Glacial Maximum and the pre-industrial era, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L23804, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049545, 2011.
Levine, J., Wolff, E., Hopcroft, P., and Valdes, P.: Controls on the tropospheric oxidising capacity during an idealized Dansgaard–Oeschger event, and their implications for the rapid rises in atmospheric methane during the last glacial period, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L12805, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051866, 2012.
Li, C., Battisti, D., and Bitz, C.: Can North Atlantic Sea Ice Anomalies Account for Dansgaard–Oeschger Climate Signals?, J. Climate, 23, 5457–5475, 2010.
Liu, Z., Otto-Bleisner, B., H. F., Brady, E., Tomas, R., Clark, P., Carlson, A., Lynch-Steiglitz, J., Curry, W., Brook, E., Erickson, D., Jacob, R., Kutzbach, J., and Cheng, J.: Transient Simulation of Last Deglaciation with a New Mechanism for Bølling-Allerød Warming, Science, 325, 310–314, 2009.
MacDonald, G. M., Beilman, D. W., Kremenetski, K. V., Sheng, Y., Smith, L. C., and Velichko, A. A.: Rapid Early Development of Circumarctic Peatlands and Atmospheric CH4 and CO2 Variations, Science, 314, 285–288, 2006.
Masson-Delmotte, V., Jouzel, J., Landais, A., Stievenard, M., Johnsen, S. J., White, J. W. C., Sveinbjornsdottir, A., and Fuhrer, K.: Deuterium excess reveals millennial and orbital scale fluctuations of Greenland moisture origin, Science, 309, 118–121, 2005.
Melton, J. R., Schaefer, H., and Whiticar, M. J.: Enrichment in 13C of atmospheric CH4 during the Younger Dryas termination, Clim. Past, 8, 1177–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1177-2012, 2012.
Melton, J. R., Wania, R., Hodson, E. L., Poulter, B., Ringeval, B., Spahni, R., Bohn, T., Avis, C. A., Beerling, D. J., Chen, G., Eliseev, A. V., Denisov, S. N., Hopcroft, P. O., Lettenmaier, D. P., Riley, W. J., Singarayer, J. S., Subin, Z. M., Tian, H., Zürcher, S., Brovkin, V., van Bodegom, P. M., Kleinen, T., Yu, Z. C., and Kaplan, J. O.: Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP), Biogeosciences, 10, 753–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013.
Merkel, U., Prange, M., and Schulz, M.: ENSO variability and teleconnections during glacial climates, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 86–100, 2010.
Möller, L., Sowers, T., Bock, M., Spahni, R., Behrens, M., Schmitt, J., Miller, H. and Fischer, H.: Independent variations of CH4 emissions and isotopic composition over the past 160,000 years, Nat. Geosci., 6, 885–890, 2013.
New, M., M. Hulme, and P. D. Jones: Representing twentieth century space-time climate variability, Part 1: Development of a 1961–1990 mean monthly terrestrial climatology, J. Climate, 12, 829–856, 1999.
NGRIP Project Members: High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period, Nature, 431, 47–151,, 2004.
Pausata, F., Battisti, D., Nisancioglu, K., and Bitz, C.: Chinese stalagmite δ18O controlled by changes in the Indian monsoon during a simulated Heinrich event, Nat. Geosci., 4, 474–480, 2011.
Peltier, W.: Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the ice age earth: The ICE-5G (VM2) model and GRACE, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 32, 111–149, 2004.
Petersen, S., Schrag, D., and Clark, P.: A new mechanism for Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles, Paleoceanography, 28, 24–30, 2013.
Peterson, L. C., Haug, G. H., Hughen, K. A., and Rohl, U.: Rapid changes in the hydrologic cycle of the tropical Atlantic during the last glacial, Science, 290, 1947–1951, 2000.
Petit, J. R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N. I., Barnola, J.-M., Basile, I., Bender, M., Chappellaz, J., Davis, M., Dalaygue, G., Delmotte, M., Kotlyakov, V. M., Legrand, M., Lipenkov, V. Y., Lorius, C., Pépin, L., Ritz, C., Saltzman, E., and Stievenard, M.: Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica, Nature, 399, 429–436, 1999.
Reyes, A. and Cooke, C.: Northern peatland initiation lagged abrupt increases in deglacial atmospheric CH4, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 108, 4748–4753, 2011.
Ringeval, B., Hopcroft, P. O., Valdes, P. J., Ciais, P., Ramstein, G., Dolman, A. J., and Kageyama, M.: Response of methane emissions from wetlands to the Last Glacial Maximum and an idealized Dansgaard–Oeschger climate event: insights from two models of different complexity, Clim. Past, 9, 149–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-149-2013, 2013.
Seager, R. and Battisti, D. S.: Challenges to our understanding of the general circulation: abrupt climate change, in: The Global Circulation of the Atmosphere, edited by: Lorenz, E. N., Schneider, T., and Sobel, A. H., Princeton University Press, Princeton, USA, 2007.
Singarayer, J. and Valdes, P.: High-latitude climate sensitivity to ice-sheet forcing over the last 120 kyr, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 43–55, 2010.
Singarayer, J., Valdes, P., Friedlingstein, P., Nelson, S., and Beerling, D.: Late Holocene methane rise caused by orbitally controlled increase in tropical sources, Nature, 470, 82–85, 2011.
Smith, R. S., Gregory, J. M., and Osprey, A.: A description of the FAMOUS (version XDBUA) climate model and control run, Geosci. Model Dev., 1, 53–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-1-53-2008, 2008.
Spahni, R., Chappellaz, J., Stocker, T. F., Loulergue, L., Hausammann, G., Kawamura, K., Flückiger, J., Schwander, J., Raynaud, D., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Jouzel, J.: Atmospheric methane and nitrous oxide of the late pleistocene from Antarctic ice cores, Science, 310, 1317–1321, 2005.
Spahni, R., Wania, R., Neef, L., van Weele, M., Pison, I., Bousquet, P., Frankenberg, C., Foster, P. N., Joos, F., Prentice, I. C., and van Velthoven, P.: Constraining g lobal methane emissions and uptake by ecosystems, Biogeosciences, 8, 1643-1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-1643-2011, 2011.
Spahni, R., Joos, F., Stocker, B. D., Steinacher, M., and Yu, Z. C.: Transient simulations of the carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands: from the Last Glacial Maximum to the 21st century, Clim. Past, 9, 1287–1308, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1287-2013, 2013.
Talley, L., Reid, J., and Robbins, P.: Data-based Meridional Overturning Streamfunctions for the Global Ocean, J Climate, 16, 3213–3226, 2003.
Valdes, P., Beerling, D., and Johnson, C.: The ice age methane budget, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L02704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021004, 2005.
van Huissteden, J.: Methane emission from northern wetlands in Europe during Oxygen Isotope Stage 3, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 23, 1989–2005, 2004.
van Kreveld, S., Sarnthein, M., Erlenkeuser, H., Grootes, P., Jung, S., Nadeau, M. J., Pflaumann, U., and Voelker, A.: Potential links between surging ice sheets, circulation changes, and the Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles in the Irminger Sea, 60–18 kyr, Paleoceanography, 15, 425–442, 2000.
Wadham, J., Tranter, M., Tulaczyk, S., and Sharp, M.: Subglacial methanogenesis: A potential climatic amplifier?, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, GB2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB002951, 2008.
Walter, K. M., Edwards, M. E., Grosse, G., Zimov, S. A., and Chapin III, F. S.: Thermokarst Lakes as a Source of Atmospheric CH4 During the Last Deglaciation, Science, 318, 633–636, 2007.
Wang, Y. J., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., An, Z. S., Wu, J. Y., Shen, C.-C., and Dorale, J. A.: A High-Resolution Absolute-Dated Late Pleistocene Monsoon Record from Hulu Cave, China, Science, 24, 2345–2348, 2001.
Wania, R., Ross, I., and Prentice, I. C.: Integrating peatlands and permafrost into a dynamic global vegetation model: 1. evaluation and sensitivity of physical land surface processes, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB3014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003412, 2009a.
Wania, R., Ross, I., and Prentice, I. C.: Integrating peatlands and permafrost into a dynamic global vegetation model: 2. evaluation and sensitivity of vegetation and carbon cycle processes, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB3015, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003413, 2009b.
Wania, R., Ross, I., and Prentice, I. C.: Implementation and evaluation of a new methane model within a dynamic global vegetation model: LPJ-WHyMe v1.3.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 565–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-565-2010, 2010.
Wania, R., Melton, J. R., Hodson, E. L., Poulter, B., Ringeval, B., Spahni, R., Bohn, T., Avis, C. A., Chen, G., Eliseev, A. V., Hopcroft, P. O., Riley, W. J., Subin, Z. M., Tian, H., van Bodegom, P. M., Kleinen, T., Yu, Z. C., Singarayer, J. S., Zürcher, S., Lettenmaier, D. P., Beerling, D. J., Denisov, S. N., Prigent, C., Papa, F., and Kaplan, J. O.: Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP), Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 617–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, 2013.
Whiting, G. and Chanton, J.: Primary production control of methane emission from wetlands, Nature, 364, 794–795, 1993.
Wolff, E. W., Chappellaz, J., Blunier, T., Rasmussen, S. O., and Svensson, A.: Millennial-scale variability during the last glacial: The ice core record, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 2828–2838, 2010.
Woodward, F., Smith, T., and Emanuel, W.: A global land primary productivity and phytogeography model, Global Biogechem. Cy., 9, 471–490, 1995.
Wunsch, C.: Abrupt climate change: An alternative view, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 65, 191–203, 2006.
Yin, J., Schlesinger, M., Andronova, N., Malyshev, S., and Li, B.: Is a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation irreversible?, J. Geophys. Res., 11, D12104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006562, 2006.
Yu, Z., Loisel, J., Brosseau, D., and Beilman, D.: Global peatland dynamics since the Last Glacial Maximum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L13402, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043584, 2010.
Zürcher, S., Spahni, R., Joos, F., Steinacher, M., and Fischer, H.: Impact of an abrupt cooling event on interglacial methane emissions in northern peatlands, Biogeosciences, 10, 1963–1981, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1963-2013, 2013.