Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-1423-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-1423-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Multidecadal behavior of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the last millennium
Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA
Bronwen L. Konecky
Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA
Sloan Coats
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Hawaii at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA
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Lizz Ultee, Finn Wimberly, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren
The Cryosphere, 20, 1339–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1339-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1339-2026, 2026
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Runoff from glaciers can be an important water source in mountain regions. Global climate models used to understand future changes in the water cycle do not include glacier changes. We simulated glacier change in all available glacier models using information from global climate models as input. We found that for analysis of future drought, it is more important to understand the climate input than to use all available glacier models together.
Finn Wimberly, Lizz Ultee, Lilian Schuster, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Fabien Maussion, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren
The Cryosphere, 19, 1491–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025, 2025
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Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km2 with over 30 km2 of initial glacier cover.
Jonathan Obrist-Farner, Andreas Eckert, Peter M. J. Douglas, Liseth Perez, Alex Correa-Metrio, Bronwen L. Konecky, Thorsten Bauersachs, Susan Zimmerman, Stephanie Scheidt, Mark Brenner, Steffen Kutterolf, Jeremy Maurer, Omar Flores, Caroline M. Burberry, Anders Noren, Amy Myrbo, Matthew Lachniet, Nigel Wattrus, Derek Gibson, and the LIBRE scientific team
Sci. Dril., 32, 85–100, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-32-85-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-32-85-2023, 2023
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In August 2022, 65 scientists from 13 countries gathered in Antigua, Guatemala, for a workshop, co-funded by the US National Science Foundation and the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program. This workshop considered the potential of establishing a continental scientific drilling program in the Lake Izabal Basin, eastern Guatemala, with the goals of establishing a borehole observatory and investigating one of the longest continental records from the northern Neotropics.
Jack A. Hutchings and Bronwen L. Konecky
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 1663–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1663-2023, 2023
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The coupled variation of the three stable isotopes of oxygen in water is being studied as a relatively new tracer of the water cycle. Measurement by laser spectroscopy has a number of pitfalls that have hampered a wider exploration of this new tracer. We demonstrate successful analysis using Picarro's L2140-i analyzer and provide recommendations for other users. We find that removal of dissolved organic carbon is required when measurements are studied near the limits of instrumental accuracy.
Lizz Ultee, Sloan Coats, and Jonathan Mackay
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 935–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022, 2022
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Global climate models suggest that droughts could worsen over the coming century. In mountain basins with glaciers, glacial runoff can ease droughts, but glaciers are retreating worldwide. We analyzed how one measure of drought conditions changes when accounting for glacial runoff that changes over time. Surprisingly, we found that glacial runoff can continue to buffer drought throughout the 21st century in most cases, even as the total amount of runoff declines.
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Short summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is an important driver of year-to-year weather variability in Europe and North America, but its behavior on longer timescales is disputed. We present a new reconstruction of the NAO over the last millennium using water isotope proxy data from ice cores, speleothems, trees, and other archives. We find pronounced but irregular multidecadal to centennial variability. Better accounting for such variability in climate models is crucial to better project future climate.
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is an important driver of year-to-year weather variability...