Articles | Volume 21, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-897-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-897-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 May 2025
Research article |
| 16 May 2025
| 16 May 2025
Evaluating the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 3 with synoptic typing and an East Antarctic ice core accumulation record
Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Battery Point 7004, Australia
Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Battery Point 7004, Australia
Danielle G. Udy
Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Battery Point 7004, Australia
Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Battery Point 7004, Australia
Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Battery Point 7004, Australia
Tessa R. Vance
Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Battery Point 7004, Australia
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John Bright Ayabilah, Matt King, Danielle Udy, and Tessa Vance
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1187, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1187, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Large-scale climate modes significantly influence Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) mass variability. This study investigates AIS variability during different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periods using GRACE data (2002–2022). Results show strong spatial variability driven by changes in the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). This highlights the importance of understanding these patterns for future ice mass estimates and sea level rise predictions.
Jordan R. W. Martin, Joel B. Pedro, and Tessa R. Vance
Clim. Past, 20, 2487–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2487-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2487-2024, 2024
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We use existing palaeoclimate data and a statistical model to predict atmospheric CO2 concentrations across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. Our prediction assumes that the relationship between CO2 and benthic ẟ18Ocalcite over the past 800 000 years can be extended over the last 1.8 million years. We find no clear evidence from existing blue ice or proxy-based CO2 data to reject the predicted record. A definitive test awaits analysis of continuous oldest ice core records from Antarctica.
Margaret Mallory Harlan, Jodi Fox, Helle Astrid Kjær, Tessa R. Vance, Anders Svensson, and Eliza Cook
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-64, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-64, 2024
Preprint under review for CP
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We identify two tephra horizons in the Mount Brown South (MBS) ice core originating from the mid-1980s eruptive period of Mt. Erebus and the 1991 eruption of Cerro Hudson. They represent an important addition to East Antarctic tephrochronology, with implications for understanding atmospheric dynamics and ice core chronologies. This work underpins the importance of the MBS ice core as a new tephrochronological archive in an underrepresented region of coastal East Antarctica.
Margaret Harlan, Helle Astrid Kjær, Aylin de Campo, Anders Svensson, Thomas Blunier, Vasileios Gkinis, Sarah Jackson, Christopher Plummer, and Tessa Vance
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-335, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-335, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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This paper provides high-resolution chemistry and impurity measurements from the Mount Brown South ice core in East Antarctica, from 873 to 2009 CE. Measurements include sodium, ammonium, hydrogen peroxide, electrolytic conductivity, and insoluble microparticles. Data are provided on three scales: 1 mm and 3 cm averaged depth resolution and decadally averaged. The paper also describes the continuous flow analysis systems used to collect the data as well as uncertainties and data quality.
Helen J. Shea, Ailie Gallant, Ariaan Purich, and Tessa R. Vance
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2660, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2660, 2024
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The tropical Pacific influences sea salt levels in the ice core from Mount Brown South (MBS), East Antarctica. High sea salt years are linked to stronger westerly winds and increased sea ice near MBS's northeast coast. El Niño events affect wind patterns around MBS, impacting sea salt sources. Low pressure storms off the coast might transport sea salts from sea ice regions to MBS. Identifying these mechanisms aids in the understanding of climate variability before instrumental records.
Tessa R. Vance, Nerilie J. Abram, Alison S. Criscitiello, Camilla K. Crockart, Aylin DeCampo, Vincent Favier, Vasileios Gkinis, Margaret Harlan, Sarah L. Jackson, Helle A. Kjær, Chelsea A. Long, Meredith K. Nation, Christopher T. Plummer, Delia Segato, Andrea Spolaor, and Paul T. Vallelonga
Clim. Past, 20, 969–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-969-2024, 2024
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This study presents the chronologies from the new Mount Brown South ice cores from East Antarctica, which were developed by counting annual layers in the ice core data and aligning these to volcanic sulfate signatures. The uncertainty in the dating is quantified, and we discuss initial results from seasonal cycle analysis and mean annual concentrations. The chronologies will underpin the development of new proxy records for East Antarctica spanning the past millennium.
Lingwei Zhang, Tessa R. Vance, Alexander D. Fraser, Lenneke M. Jong, Sarah S. Thompson, Alison S. Criscitiello, and Nerilie J. Abram
The Cryosphere, 17, 5155–5173, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5155-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5155-2023, 2023
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Physical features in ice cores provide unique records of past variability. We identified 1–2 mm ice layers without bubbles in surface ice cores from Law Dome, East Antarctica, occurring on average five times per year. The origin of these bubble-free layers is unknown. In this study, we investigate whether they have the potential to record past atmospheric processes and circulation. We find that the bubble-free layers are linked to accumulation hiatus events and meridional moisture transport.
Sarah L. Jackson, Tessa R. Vance, Camilla Crockart, Andrew Moy, Christopher Plummer, and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 19, 1653–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1653-2023, 2023
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Ice core records are useful tools for reconstructing past climate. However, ice cores favour recording climate conditions at times when snowfall occurs. Large snowfall events in Antarctica are often associated with warmer-than-usual temperatures. We show that this results in a tendency for the Mount Brown South ice core record to preserve a temperature record biased to the climate conditions that exist during extreme events, rather than a temperature record that reflects the mean annual climate.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, Diana O. Vladimirova, Dieter R. Tetzner, B. Daniel Emanuelsson, Nathan Chellman, Daniel A. Dixon, Hugues Goosse, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Amy C. F. King, Michael Sigl, Danielle G. Udy, Tessa R. Vance, Dominic A. Winski, V. Holly L. Winton, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Akira Hori, Chavarukonam M. Laluraj, Joseph R. McConnell, Yuko Motizuki, Kazuya Takahashi, Hideaki Motoyama, Yoichi Nakai, Franciéle Schwanck, Jefferson Cardia Simões, Filipe Gaudie Ley Lindau, Mirko Severi, Rita Traversi, Sarah Wauthy, Cunde Xiao, Jiao Yang, Ellen Mosely-Thompson, Tamara V. Khodzher, Ludmila P. Golobokova, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2517–2532, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, 2023
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The concentration of sodium and sulfate measured in Antarctic ice cores is related to changes in both sea ice and winds. Here we have compiled a database of sodium and sulfate records from 105 ice core sites in Antarctica. The records span all, or part, of the past 2000 years. The records will improve our understanding of how winds and sea ice have changed in the past and how they have influenced the climate of Antarctica over the past 2000 years.
Lenneke M. Jong, Christopher T. Plummer, Jason L. Roberts, Andrew D. Moy, Mark A. J. Curran, Tessa R. Vance, Joel B. Pedro, Chelsea A. Long, Meredith Nation, Paul A. Mayewski, and Tas D. van Ommen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3313–3328, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3313-2022, 2022
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Ice core records from Law Dome in East Antarctica, collected over the the last 3 decades, provide high-resolution data for studies of the climate of Antarctica, Australia and the Southern and Indo-Pacific oceans. Here, we present a set of annually dated records from Law Dome covering the last 2000 years. This dataset provides an update and extensions both forward and back in time of previously published subsets of the data, bringing them together into a coherent set with improved dating.
Camilla K. Crockart, Tessa R. Vance, Alexander D. Fraser, Nerilie J. Abram, Alison S. Criscitiello, Mark A. J. Curran, Vincent Favier, Ailie J. E. Gallant, Christoph Kittel, Helle A. Kjær, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Lenneke M. Jong, Andrew D. Moy, Christopher T. Plummer, Paul T. Vallelonga, Jonathan Wille, and Lingwei Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 1795–1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1795-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1795-2021, 2021
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We present preliminary analyses of the annual sea salt concentrations and snowfall accumulation in a new East Antarctic ice core, Mount Brown South. We compare this record with an updated Law Dome (Dome Summit South site) ice core record over the period 1975–2016. The Mount Brown South record preserves a stronger and inverse signal for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (in austral winter and spring) compared to the Law Dome record (in summer).
Anna L. Flack, Anthony S. Kiem, Tessa R. Vance, Carly R. Tozer, and Jason L. Roberts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5699–5712, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5699-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5699-2020, 2020
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Palaeoclimate information was analysed for eastern Australia to determine when (and where) there was agreement about the timing of wet and dry epochs in the pre-instrumental period (1000–1899). The results show that instrumental records (~1900–present) underestimate the full range of rainfall variability that has occurred. When coupled with projected impacts of climate change and growing demands, these results highlight major challenges for water resource management and infrastructure.
Jason Roberts, Andrew Moy, Christopher Plummer, Tas van Ommen, Mark Curran, Tessa Vance, Samuel Poynter, Yaping Liu, Joel Pedro, Adam Treverrow, Carly Tozer, Lenneke Jong, Pippa Whitehouse, Laetitia Loulergue, Jerome Chappellaz, Vin Morgan, Renato Spahni, Adrian Schilt, Cecilia MacFarling Meure, David Etheridge, and Thomas Stocker
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-96, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-96, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
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Here we present a revised Law Dome, Dome Summit South (DSS) ice core age model (denoted LD2017) that significantly improves the chronology over the last 88 thousand years. An ensemble approach was used, allowing for the computation of both a median age and associated uncertainty as a function of depth. We use a non-linear interpolation between age ties and unlike previous studies, we made an independent estimate of the snow accumulation rate, where required, for the use of gas based age ties.
Paul Vallelonga, Niccolo Maffezzoli, Andrew D. Moy, Mark A. J. Curran, Tessa R. Vance, Ross Edwards, Gwyn Hughes, Emily Barker, Gunnar Spreen, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, J. Pablo Corella, Carlos A. Cuevas, and Andrea Spolaor
Clim. Past, 13, 171–184, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-171-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-171-2017, 2017
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We present a study of bromine, iodine and sodium in an ice core from Law Dome, in coastal East Antarctica. We find that bromine and iodine variability at Law Dome is correlated to changes in the area of sea ice along the Law Dome coast as observed by satellite since the early 1970s. These findings are in agreement with a previous study based on MSA and confirm a long-term trend of sea ice decrease for this sector of Antarctica over the 20th century.
Carly R. Tozer, Tessa R. Vance, Jason L. Roberts, Anthony S. Kiem, Mark A. J. Curran, and Andrew D. Moy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1703–1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1703-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1703-2016, 2016
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A 1013-year annual rainfall reconstruction was developed for the Williams River catchment in coastal eastern Australia, based on a linear relationship between sea salt deposition in East Antarctica and rainfall in eastern Australia. The reconstruction allows for the instrumental climate record (~ 100 years) to be assessed in the context of millennial climate variability, allowing for better characterisation of flood and drought risk.
Tessa R. Vance, Jason L. Roberts, Andrew D. Moy, Mark A. J. Curran, Carly R. Tozer, Ailie J. E. Gallant, Nerilie J. Abram, Tas D. van Ommen, Duncan A. Young, Cyril Grima, Don D. Blankenship, and Martin J. Siegert
Clim. Past, 12, 595–610, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-595-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-595-2016, 2016
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This study details a systematic approach to finding a new high-resolution East Antarctic ice core site. The study initially outlines seven criteria that a new site must fulfil, encompassing specific accumulation, ice dynamics and atmospheric circulation aspects. We then use numerous techniques including Antarctic surface mass balance syntheses, ground-truthing of satellite data by airborne radar surveys and reanalysis products to pinpoint promising regions.
J. L. Lieser, M. A. J. Curran, A. R. Bowie, A. T. Davidson, S. J. Doust, A. D. Fraser, B. K. Galton-Fenzi, R. A. Massom, K. M. Meiners, J. Melbourne-Thomas, P. A. Reid, P. G. Strutton, T. R. Vance, M. Vancoppenolle, K. J. Westwood, and S. W. Wright
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-6187-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-6187-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
J. Roberts, C. Plummer, T. Vance, T. van Ommen, A. Moy, S. Poynter, A. Treverrow, M. Curran, and S. George
Clim. Past, 11, 697–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-697-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-697-2015, 2015
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The Law Dome, East Antarctica snow accumulation record is extended back to 22 BCE using a power-law vertical strain rate model. The periods of 380-442, 727-783 and 1970-2009 CE show above-average snow accumulation rates, while 663-704, 933-975 and 1429-1468 CE were below average. The calculated snow accumulation rates show good correlation with atmospheric reanalysis estimates and significant spatial correlation over a wide expanse of East Antarctica.
Related subject area
Subject: Atmospheric Dynamics | Archive: Ice Cores | Timescale: Decadal-Seasonal
Winter and summer blocking variability in the North Atlantic region – evidence from long-term observational and proxy data from southwestern Greenland
A 70-yr record of oxygen-18 variability in an ice core from the Tanggula Mountains, central Tibetan Plateau
N. Rimbu and G. Lohmann
Clim. Past, 7, 543–555, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-543-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-543-2011, 2011
D. R. Joswiak, T. Yao, G. Wu, B. Xu, and W. Zheng
Clim. Past, 6, 219–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-219-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-219-2010, 2010
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Short summary
Reanalyses can be used to study past weather and climate, but their reliability is uncertain in data-sparse regions, such as the southern Indian Ocean. We used weather typing and an ice core record from East Antarctica to show that the 20th Century Reanalysis project can better represent the weather conditions that lead to snowfall variability at the ice core site when key weather observations from the Southern Ocean (e.g. Macquarie Island) commence around the mid-20th century.
Reanalyses can be used to study past weather and climate, but their reliability is uncertain in...
