Evaluation of regional climate features over Antarctica in the PMIP past1000 experiment and implications for 21st-century sea level rise

Charnay, Vincent; Lowry, Daniel P.; Keller, Elizabeth D.; Sood, Abha

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1611-2025

Articles | Volume 21, issue 9

https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1611-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1611-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 21, issue 9

Research article

|

11 Sep 2025

Research article |

| 11 Sep 2025

Evaluation of regional climate features over Antarctica in the PMIP past1000 experiment and implications for 21st-century sea level rise

Vincent Charnay, Daniel P. Lowry, Elizabeth D. Keller, and Abha Sood

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1611-2025-supplement

Data sets

Climate variability and change since 850 CE: An ensemble approach with the Community Earth System Model Otto-Bliesner et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00233.1

Antarctic regional snow accumulation composites over the past 1000 years - version 2 Thomas https://doi.org/10.5285/cc1d42de-dfe6-40aa-a1a6-d45cb2fc8293

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - PAGES Antarctica2k Temperature Reconstructions Stenni et al. (2017a) https://doi.org/10.25921/h6nr-kt92

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - PAGES Ocean2k Synthesis Data Set McGregor et al. https://doi.org/10.25921/bba3-4t43

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Cook et al. 2008 700 Year Tree-Ring ENSO Index Reconstructions Cook et al. https://doi.org/10.25921/fc9a-y614

Short summary

Our study evaluates models' ability to simulate Antarctic regional climate features by comparing available Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project models to sets of Last Millennium Antarctic proxy-based reconstructions most relevant to the surface mass balance. We later look at their implications for 21st-century sea level rise. The best-scoring model predicts a higher surface mass balance by 2100, which implies stronger mitigation of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.