Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2701-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2701-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Dec 2024
Research article |
| 12 Dec 2024
| 12 Dec 2024
Documents, reanalysis, and global circulation models: a new method for reconstructing historical climate focusing on present-day inland Tanzania, 1856–1890
Indian Ocean World Centre, McGill University, Montreal, H3A 0E6, Canada
Melissa J. Lazenby
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN1 9RH, United Kingdom
Michael R. Frogley
Department of Geography, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN1 9RH, United Kingdom
Cecile Dai
Indian Ocean World Centre, McGill University, Montreal, H3A 0E6, Canada
Wenqi Su
Indian Ocean World Centre, McGill University, Montreal, H3A 0E6, Canada
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Michael R. Frogley and John E. Whittaker
J. Micropalaeontol., 36, 8–12, https://doi.org/10.1144/jmpaleo2015-023, https://doi.org/10.1144/jmpaleo2015-023, 2017
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Historical Records | Timescale: Decadal-Seasonal
Processes, spatial patterns, and impacts of the 1743 extreme-heat event in northern China: from the perspective of historical documents
Climatic impacts on mortality in pre-industrial Sweden
Weather and climate and their human impacts and responses during the Thirty Years' War in central Europe
A global inventory of quantitative documentary evidence related to climate since the 15th century
The 1600 CE Huaynaputina eruption as a possible trigger for persistent cooling in the North Atlantic region
Analysis of early Japanese meteorological data and historical weather documents to reconstruct the winter climate between the 1840s and the early 1850s
Climate indices in historical climate reconstructions: a global state of the art
Could phenological records from Chinese poems of the Tang and Song dynasties (618–1279 CE) be reliable evidence of past climate changes?
Central Europe, 1531–1540 CE: The driest summer decade of the past five centuries?
“Everything is scorched by the burning sun”: missionary perspectives and experiences of 19th- and early 20th-century droughts in semi-arid central Namibia
Patterns in data of extreme droughts/floods and harvest grades derived from historical documents in eastern China during 801–1910
The extreme drought of 1842 in Europe as described by both documentary data and instrumental measurements
The climate in south-east Moravia, Czech Republic, 1803–1830, based on daily weather records kept by the Reverend Šimon Hausner
The climate of Granada (southern Spain) during the first third of the 18th century (1706–1730) according to documentary sources
Extracting weather information from a plantation document
Variation of extreme drought and flood in North China revealed by document-based seasonal precipitation reconstruction for the past 300 years
300 years of hydrological records and societal responses to droughts and floods on the Pacific coast of Central America
Multi-proxy reconstructions of May–September precipitation field in China over the past 500 years
Climatic effects and impacts of the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in the Czech Lands
Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century based on documentary evidence
Observations of a stratospheric aerosol veil from a tropical volcanic eruption in December 1808: is this the Unknown ∼1809 eruption?
Documentary-derived chronologies of rainfall variability in Antigua, Lesser Antilles, 1770–1890
An underestimated record breaking event – why summer 1540 was likely warmer than 2003
Snow and weather climatic control on snow avalanche occurrence fluctuations over 50 yr in the French Alps
Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the period 1701–1850 based on documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations
Spring-summer temperatures reconstructed for northern Switzerland and southwestern Germany from winter rye harvest dates, 1454–1970
Le Tao, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Fangyu Tian
Clim. Past, 20, 2455–2471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2455-2024, 2024
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Our study collected 63 historical documents on the extreme heat of 1743 from three kinds of historical materials. Using text analysis methods, such as keyword extraction, grading, and classification, we reconstructed the 1743 extreme heat event. This heat event developed cumulatively, and the key areas affected are consistent with those impacted in modern times. Timely cooling and reducing exposure have been limited but necessary means of addressing extreme heat in both ancient and modern times.
Tzu Tung Chen, Rodney Edvinsson, Karin Modig, Hans W. Linderholm, and Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-92, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
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We study the climate effects on mortality, using annual mortality records and meteorological data, in Sweden between 1749 and 1859. It is found that colder winter and spring temperatures increased mortality, while no statistically significant associations were observed between summer or autumn temperatures and mortality, and only weak associations existed with precipitation. Further research is needed about which specific diseases caused the mortality increase following cold winters and springs.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Christian Pfister, Katrin Kleemann, Kateřina Chromá, Péter Szabó, and Piotr Olinski
Clim. Past, 19, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1863-2023, 2023
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The Thirty Years' War (from 1618 to 1648 CE), an armed military conflict in Europe, brought extensive devastation to Europe. The paper analyses annual and seasonal temperature, precipitation, and drought patterns, as well as severe weather extremes, based particularly on documentary data, during this event in central Europe to demonstrate their broad impacts on human society and human responses in coincidence with weather and climate during this period of hardship.
Angela-Maria Burgdorf
Clim. Past, 18, 1407–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1407-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1407-2022, 2022
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This comprehensive inventory of quantitative documentary evidence related to climate extending back to 1400 CE promotes the first ever global perspective on documentary climate records. It lays the foundation for incorporating documentary evidence from archives of societies into global-scale climate reconstructions, complementing (early) instrumental measurements and natural climate proxies. Documentary records are particularly relevant in seasons and regions poorly covered by natural proxies.
Sam White, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Davide Zanchettin, Heli Huhtamaa, Dagomar Degroot, Markus Stoffel, and Christophe Corona
Clim. Past, 18, 739–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022, 2022
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This study examines whether the 1600 Huaynaputina volcano eruption triggered persistent cooling in the North Atlantic. It compares previous paleoclimate simulations with new climate reconstructions from natural proxies and historical documents and finds that the reconstructions are consistent with, but do not support, an eruption trigger for persistent cooling. The study also analyzes societal impacts of climatic change in ca. 1600 and the use of historical observations in model–data comparison.
Junpei Hirano, Takehiko Mikami, and Masumi Zaiki
Clim. Past, 18, 327–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-327-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-327-2022, 2022
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The East Asian winter monsoon causes orographic snowfall over the windward side of the Japanese islands (facing the Sea of Japan and the northwesterly winter monsoon flow) and negative temperature anomalies around Japan. In this study, we reconstruct the outbreak of the winter monsoon around Japan for the winter from the 1840s to the early 1850s by using daily weather information recorded in old Japanese diaries and early daily instrumental temperature data.
David J. Nash, George C. D. Adamson, Linden Ashcroft, Martin Bauch, Chantal Camenisch, Dagomar Degroot, Joelle Gergis, Adrian Jusopović, Thomas Labbé, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Sharon D. Nicholson, Qing Pei, María del Rosario Prieto, Ursula Rack, Facundo Rojas, and Sam White
Clim. Past, 17, 1273–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1273-2021, 2021
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Qualitative evidence contained within historical sources provides an important record of climate variability for periods prior to the onset of systematic meteorological data collection. Before such evidence can be used for climate reconstructions, it needs to be converted to a quantitative format. A common approach is the generation of ordinal-scale climate indices. This review, written by members of the PAGES CRIAS working group, provides a global synthesis of the use of the index approach.
Yachen Liu, Xiuqi Fang, Junhu Dai, Huanjiong Wang, and Zexing Tao
Clim. Past, 17, 929–950, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-929-2021, 2021
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There are controversies about whether poetry can be used as one of the evidence sources for past climate changes. We tried to discuss the reliability and validity of phenological records from poems of the Tang and Song dynasties (618–1279 CE) by analyzing their certainties and uncertainties. A standardized processing method for phenological records from poems is introduced. We hope that this study can provide a reference for the extraction and application of phenological records from poems.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Martin Bauch, Chantal Camenisch, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Piotr Oliński, and Ladislava Řezníčková
Clim. Past, 16, 2125–2151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, 2020
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Previous studies related to historical droughts in the Czech Lands showed that the summers of 1531–1540 could represent the driest summer decade of the past 500 years. To confirm this hypothesis, documentary data from central Europe were collected and presented for individual summers and complemented by maps of precipitation and drought distribution to document corresponding weather patterns and their various impacts. The main droughts occurred in 1532, 1534–1536, 1538, and particularly in 1540.
Stefan Grab and Tizian Zumthurm
Clim. Past, 16, 679–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-679-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-679-2020, 2020
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Here we describe the unique nature of droughts over semi-arid central Namibia (southern Africa) between 1850 and 1920. We establish temporal shifts in the influence and impact that historical droughts had on society and the environment during this period. The paper demonstrates and argues that human experience and the associated reporting of drought events depend strongly on social, environmental, spatial, and societal developmental situations and perspectives.
Zhixin Hao, Maowei Wu, Jingyun Zheng, Jiewei Chen, Xuezhen Zhang, and Shiwei Luo
Clim. Past, 16, 101–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-101-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-101-2020, 2020
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Using reconstructed extreme drought/flood chronologies and grain harvest series derived from historical documents, it is found that the frequency of reporting of extreme droughts in any subregion of eastern China was significantly associated with lower reconstructed harvests during 801–1910. The association was weak during the warm epoch of 920–1300 but strong during the cold epoch of 1310–1880, which indicates that a warm climate might weaken the impact of extreme drought on poor harvests.
Rudolf Brázdil, Gaston R. Demarée, Andrea Kiss, Petr Dobrovolný, Kateřina Chromá, Miroslav Trnka, Lukáš Dolák, Ladislava Řezníčková, Pavel Zahradníček, Danuta Limanowka, and Sylvie Jourdain
Clim. Past, 15, 1861–1884, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1861-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1861-2019, 2019
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The paper presents analysis of the 1842 drought in Europe (except the Mediterranean) based on documentary data and instrumental records. First the meteorological background of this drought is shown (seasonal distribution of precipitation, annual variation of temperature, precipitation and drought indices, synoptic reasons) and effects of drought on water management, agriculture, and in society are described in detail with particular attention to human responses.
Rudolf Brázdil, Hubert Valášek, Kateřina Chromá, Lukáš Dolák, Ladislava Řezníčková, Monika Bělínová, Adam Valík, and Pavel Zahradníček
Clim. Past, 15, 1205–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1205-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1205-2019, 2019
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The paper analyses a weather diary of the Reverend Šimon Hausner from Buchlovice in south-east Moravia, Czech Republic, in the 1803–1831 period. From daily weather records, series of numbers of precipitation days, cloudiness, strong winds, fogs, and thunderstorms were created. These records were further used to interpret weighted temperature and precipitation indices. Records of Šimon Hausner represent an important contribution to the study of climate fluctuations on the central European scale.
Fernando S. Rodrigo
Clim. Past, 15, 647–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-647-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-647-2019, 2019
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The climate of Granada (southern Spain) during the first third of the 18th century is reconstructed. Results suggest that climatic conditions were similar to those of the first decades of the 20th century, when the global warming signal was of less importance than today. In addition, the paper presents the instrumental data taken in Granada in 1729, probably the first instrumental meteorological data recorded in Spain. Some extreme events, such as the cold wave of winter 1729, are studied.
Gregory Burris, Jane Washburn, Omar Lasheen, Sophia Dorribo, James B. Elsner, and Ronald E. Doel
Clim. Past, 15, 477–492, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-477-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-477-2019, 2019
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Historical documents are full of untapped data on past climate conditions. Our paper sets out a method for extracting this information into a database that is easily utilized by climate scientists. We apply this method to a document from Shirley Plantation covering the years 1816–1842. We then provide two case studies to demonstrate the validity and utility of the new method and database.
Jingyun Zheng, Yingzhuo Yu, Xuezhen Zhang, and Zhixin Hao
Clim. Past, 14, 1135–1145, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1135-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1135-2018, 2018
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We investigated the decadal variations of extreme droughts and floods in North China using a 17-site seasonal precipitation reconstruction from a unique historical archive. Then, the link of extreme droughts and floods with ENSO episodes and large volcanic eruptions was discussed. This study helps us understand whether the recent extreme events observed by instruments exceed the natural variability at a regional scale, which may be useful for adaptation to extremes and disasters in the future.
Alvaro Guevara-Murua, Caroline A. Williams, Erica J. Hendy, and Pablo Imbach
Clim. Past, 14, 175–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-175-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-175-2018, 2018
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This study reconstructs a new semi-quantitative rainfall index for the Pacific coast of Central America using documentary sources for the period 1640 to 1945. In addition, we explore the various mechanisms and processes that may explain inter-annual and inter-decadal rainfall variability over the Pacific coast of Central America.
Feng Shi, Sen Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, Hugues Goosse, and Qiuzhen Yin
Clim. Past, 13, 1919–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, 2017
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We reconstructed the multi-proxy precipitation field for China over the past 500 years, which includes three leading modes (a monopole, a dipole, and a triple) of precipitation variability. The dipole mode may be controlled by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability. Such reconstruction is an essential source of information to document the climate variability over decadal to centennial timescales and can be used to assess the ability of climate models to simulate past climate change.
Rudolf Brázdil, Ladislava Řezníčková, Hubert Valášek, Lukáš Dolák, and Oldřich Kotyza
Clim. Past, 12, 1361–1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1361-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1361-2016, 2016
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The paper deals with climatic and human impacts of the strong Tambora (Indonesia) volcanic eruption in April 1815 over the Czech Lands territory based on analysis of documentary data and instrumental records. While climatic effects were related particularly to summers 1815 and 1816 (1816 is known as "a Year Without Summer"), quite important were societal impacts represented after bad harvest by steep increase in prices and shortages of food.
C. Camenisch
Clim. Past, 11, 1049–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1049-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1049-2015, 2015
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This paper applies the methods of historical climatology to present a climate reconstruction for the area of the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century. The results are based on documentary evidence. Approximately 3000 written records derived from about 100 different sources were examined and converted into seasonal seven-degree indices of temperature and precipitation.
A. Guevara-Murua, C. A. Williams, E. J. Hendy, A. C. Rust, and K. V. Cashman
Clim. Past, 10, 1707–1722, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1707-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1707-2014, 2014
A. J. Berland, S. E. Metcalfe, and G. H. Endfield
Clim. Past, 9, 1331–1343, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1331-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1331-2013, 2013
O. Wetter and C. Pfister
Clim. Past, 9, 41–56, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-41-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-41-2013, 2013
H. Castebrunet, N. Eckert, and G. Giraud
Clim. Past, 8, 855–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-855-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-855-2012, 2012
F. S. Rodrigo, J. J. Gómez-Navarro, and J. P. Montávez Gómez
Clim. Past, 8, 117–133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-117-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-117-2012, 2012
O. Wetter and C. Pfister
Clim. Past, 7, 1307–1326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1307-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1307-2011, 2011
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Short summary
This article integrates data from historical documents, climate reanalyses, and global circulation models to make time series of seasonal rainfall variability in nineteenth-century Tanzania. It reconstructs climatic conditions using sources and methods that are rooted in both the humanities and natural sciences. This represents a trans-disciplinary breakthrough in the practice of global climate reconstruction.
This article integrates data from historical documents, climate reanalyses, and global...
