Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Aug 2024
Research article |
| 12 Aug 2024
| 12 Aug 2024
Late Pleistocene glacial terminations accelerated by proglacial lakes
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Constantijn J. Berends
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Faculty of Geosciences, Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Related authors
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-57, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial cycle duration changed from 41.000 to 100.000 years during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), but the cause is still under debate. We simulate the MPT with an ice-sheet model forced by prescribed CO2 and insolation, and simple ice-climate interactions. Before the MPT, glacial cycles follow insolation. After the MPT, low CO2 levels may compensate warming at insolation maxima, increasing the length of glacial cycles until the North American ice sheet becomes large and thereby unstable.
Michele Petrini, Meike Scherrenberg, Laura Muntjewerf, Miren Vizcaino, Raymond Sellevold, Gunter Leguy, William Lipscomb, and Heiko Goelzer
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-154, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-154, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for TC
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate with a numerical model the stability of the Greenland ice-sheet under prolonged sustained warming and ice melt. We show that there is a threshold beyond which the ice-sheet will lose more than 80 % of its mass over tens of thousand of years. The point of no return is reached when the ice-sheet disconnects from a region of high topography in western Greenland. This threshold is determined by the interaction of surface and solid-Earth processes.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 19, 399–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheets have a large effect on climate and vice versa. Here we use an ice sheet computer model to simulate the last glacial cycle and compare two methods, one that implicitly includes these feedbacks and one that does not. We found that when including simple climate feedbacks, the North American ice sheet develops from two domes instead of many small domes. Each ice sheet melts slower when including feedbacks. We attribute this difference mostly to air temperature–ice sheet interactions.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Edward G. W. Gasson
The Cryosphere, 16, 1315–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To gain understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet responded to CO2 changes during past warm climate conditions, we simulate its variability during the Miocene. We include feedbacks between the ice sheet and atmosphere in our model and force the model using time-varying climate conditions. We find that these feedbacks reduce the amplitude of ice volume variations. Erosion-induced changes in the bedrock below the ice sheet that manifested during the Miocene also have a damping effect.
Caroline Jacoba van Calcar, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Wouter van der Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2982, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The bedrock response to a melting Antarctic ice sheet delays grounding line retreat by up to 130 years and reduces sea level rise by up to 23% compared to excluding this effect. Current ice sheet models often use computationally fast but simplified Earth models that do not capture this feedback well. We recommend parameters for simple Earth models that approximate bedrock uplift and ice sheet evolution from a complex ice sheet - Earth model to improve sea level projections of the next centuries.
Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H. E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
State Planet, 3-slre1, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Bart van den Hurk, Nadia Pinardi, Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, José A. Jiménez, Kate Larkin, Angélique Melet, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, Kristin Richter, Kanika Singh, Roderik van de Wal, and Gundula Winter
State Planet, 3-slre1, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Summary for Policymakers compiles findings from “Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise”. It covers knowledge gaps, observations, projections, impacts, adaptation measures, decision-making principles, and governance challenges. It provides information for each European basin (Mediterranean, Black Sea, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Atlantic, and Arctic) and aims to assist policymakers in enhancing the preparedness of European coasts for sea level rise.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-57, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial cycle duration changed from 41.000 to 100.000 years during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), but the cause is still under debate. We simulate the MPT with an ice-sheet model forced by prescribed CO2 and insolation, and simple ice-climate interactions. Before the MPT, glacial cycles follow insolation. After the MPT, low CO2 levels may compensate warming at insolation maxima, increasing the length of glacial cycles until the North American ice sheet becomes large and thereby unstable.
Kim de Wit, Kim M. Cohen, and Roderik S. W. Van de Wal
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-271, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-271, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
In the Holocene, deltas and coastal plains developed due to relative sea level rise (RSLR). Past coastal and inland water levels are preserved in geological indicators, like basal peats. We present a data set of 712 Holocene water-level indicators from the Dutch coastal plain, relevant for studying RSLR and regional subsidence, compiled in HOLSEA workbook format. Our new, internally consistent, expanded documentation encourages multiple data uses and to report RSLR uncertainties transparently.
Daniel Francis James Gunning, Kerim Hestnes Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1384, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1384, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth’s orbit. We demonstrate ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth’s climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth’s most recent cold extreme- the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Jorjo Bernales, Constantijn Berends, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-851, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-851, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates into an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models on the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 meters globally.
Constantijn J. Berends, Victor Azizi, Jorge Bernales, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-5, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-sheet models are computer programs that can simulate how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will evolve in the future. The accuracy of these models depends on their resolution: how small the details are that the model can resolve. We have created a model with a variable resolution, which can resolve a lot of detail in areas where lots of changes happen in the ice, and less detail in areas where the ice does not move so much. This makes the model both accurate and fast.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 257–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Analysing simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet variability during the early and mid-Miocene (23 to 14 Myr ago), we find that the ice sheet area adapts faster and more strongly than volume to climate change on quasi-orbital timescales. Considering the recent discovery that ice area, rather than volume, influences deep-ocean temperatures, this implies that the Miocene Antarctic Ice Sheet affects deep-ocean temperatures more than its volume suggests.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Michele Petrini, Meike Scherrenberg, Laura Muntjewerf, Miren Vizcaino, Raymond Sellevold, Gunter Leguy, William Lipscomb, and Heiko Goelzer
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-154, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-154, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for TC
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate with a numerical model the stability of the Greenland ice-sheet under prolonged sustained warming and ice melt. We show that there is a threshold beyond which the ice-sheet will lose more than 80 % of its mass over tens of thousand of years. The point of no return is reached when the ice-sheet disconnects from a region of high topography in western Greenland. This threshold is determined by the interaction of surface and solid-Earth processes.
Caroline J. van Calcar, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Bas Blank, Bas de Boer, and Wouter van der Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5473–5492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice sheet caused the Earth’s surface to deform, which is stabilizing the ice sheet and mainly determined by the spatially variable viscosity of the mantle. Including this feedback in model simulations led to significant differences in ice sheet extent and ice thickness over the last glacial cycle. The results underline and quantify the importance of including this local feedback effect in ice sheet models when simulating the Antarctic ice sheet evolution.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Iris Keizer, Dewi Le Bars, Cees de Valk, André Jüling, Roderik van de Wal, and Sybren Drijfhout
Ocean Sci., 19, 991–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using tide gauge observations, we show that the acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s but was masked by wind field and nodal-tide variations. This finding aligns with global SLR observations and expectations based on a physical understanding of SLR related to global warming.
Constantijn J. Berends, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Tim van den Akker, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 17, 1585–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The rate at which the Antarctic ice sheet will melt because of anthropogenic climate change is uncertain. Part of this uncertainty stems from processes occurring beneath the ice, such as the way the ice slides over the underlying bedrock.
Inversion methodsattempt to use observations of the ice-sheet surface to calculate how these sliding processes work. We show that such methods cannot fully solve this problem, so a substantial uncertainty still remains in projections of sea-level rise.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 19, 399–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheets have a large effect on climate and vice versa. Here we use an ice sheet computer model to simulate the last glacial cycle and compare two methods, one that implicitly includes these feedbacks and one that does not. We found that when including simple climate feedbacks, the North American ice sheet develops from two domes instead of many small domes. Each ice sheet melts slower when including feedbacks. We attribute this difference mostly to air temperature–ice sheet interactions.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, Thomas J. Reerink, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5667–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The rate at which marine ice sheets such as the West Antarctic ice sheet will retreat in a warming climate and ocean is still uncertain. Numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physical equations that describe the way glaciers and ice sheets deform and flow, have been substantially improved in recent years. Here we present the results of several years of work on IMAU-ICE, an ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, which can be used to study ice sheets of both the past and the future.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Edward G. W. Gasson
The Cryosphere, 16, 1315–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To gain understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet responded to CO2 changes during past warm climate conditions, we simulate its variability during the Miocene. We include feedbacks between the ice sheet and atmosphere in our model and force the model using time-varying climate conditions. We find that these feedbacks reduce the amplitude of ice volume variations. Erosion-induced changes in the bedrock below the ice sheet that manifested during the Miocene also have a damping effect.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2443–2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The largest uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise comes from ice-sheet retreat. To better understand how these ice sheets respond to the changing climate, ice-sheet models are used, which must be able to reproduce both their present and past evolution. We have created a model that is fast enough to simulate an ice sheet at a high resolution over the course of an entire 120 000-year glacial cycle. This allows us to study processes that cannot be captured by lower-resolution models.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 17, 361–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
For the past 2.6 million years, the Earth has experienced glacial cycles, where vast ice sheets periodically grew to cover large parts of North America and Eurasia. In the earlier part of this period, this happened every 40 000 years. This value changed 1.2 million years ago to 100 000 years: the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. We investigate this interesting period using an ice-sheet model, studying the interactions between ice sheets and the global climate.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Heiko Goelzer, Brice P. Y. Noël, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, William H. Lipscomb, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1747–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Future sea-level change projections with process-based ice sheet models are typically driven with surface mass balance forcing derived from climate models. In this work we address the problems arising from a mismatch of the modelled ice sheet geometry with the one used by the climate model. The proposed remapping method reproduces the original forcing data closely when applied to the original geometry and produces a physically meaningful forcing when applied to different modelled geometries.
Heiko Goelzer, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, Bas de Boer, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 833–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In our ice-sheet modelling experience and from exchange with colleagues in different groups, we found that it is not always clear how to calculate the sea-level contribution from a marine ice-sheet model. This goes hand in hand with a lack of documentation and transparency in the published literature on how the sea-level contribution is estimated in different models. With this brief communication, we hope to stimulate awareness and discussion in the community to improve on this situation.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, Aisling M. Dolan, Daniel J. Hill, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 15, 1603–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1603-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1603-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Late Pliocene, 3.65–2.75 million years ago, is the most recent period in Earth's history that was warmer than the present. This makes it interesting for climatological research, because it provides a possible analogue for the near future. We used a coupled ice-sheet–climate model to simulate the behaviour of these systems during this period. We show that the warmest moment saw a sea-level rise of 8–14 m, with a CO2 concentration of 320–400 ppmv.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4657–4675, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4657-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4657-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have devised a novel way to couple a climate model to an ice-sheet model. Usually, climate models are too slow to simulate more than a few centuries, whereas our new model set-up can simulate a full 120 000-year ice age in about 12 h. This makes it possible to look at the interactions between global climate and ice sheets on long timescales, something which is relevant for both research into past climate and future projections.
Eef C. H. van Dongen, Nina Kirchner, Martin B. van Gijzen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas Zwinger, Gong Cheng, Per Lötstedt, and Lina von Sydow
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4563–4576, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Ice flow forced by gravity is governed by the full Stokes (FS) equations, which are computationally expensive to solve. Therefore, approximations to the FS equations are used, especially when modeling an ice sheet on long time spans. Here, we report a combination of an approximation with the FS equations that allows simulating the dynamics of ice sheets over long time spans without introducing artifacts caused by application of approximations in parts of the domain where they are not valid.
Sarah L. Bradley, Thomas J. Reerink, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel M. Helsen
Clim. Past, 14, 619–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-619-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-619-2018, 2018
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, J. Melchior van Wessem, Erik van Meijgaard, Dirk van As, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, C. J. P. Paul Smeets, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 811–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3p2 at 11 km resolution (1958–2016) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance, i.e. snowfall minus meltwater run-off, of the GrIS compared to in situ observations. Since run-off from marginal narrow glaciers is poorly resolved at 11 km, further statistical downscaling to 1 km resolution is required for mass balance studies.
Werner M. J. Lazeroms, Adrian Jenkins, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 12, 49–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Basal melting of ice shelves is a major factor in the decline of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which can contribute significantly to sea-level rise. Here, we investigate a new basal melt model based on the dynamics of meltwater plumes. For the first time, this model is applied to all Antarctic ice shelves. The model results in a realistic melt-rate pattern given suitable data for the topography and ocean temperature, making it a promising tool for future simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Renske C. de Winter, Thomas J. Reerink, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Hylke de Vries, Tamsin Edwards, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2125–2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides a full range of possible future sea levels on a regional scale, since it includes extreme, but possible, contributions to sea level change from dynamical mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. In contrast to the symmetric distribution used in the IPCC report, it is found that an asymmetric distribution toward high sea level change values locally can increase the mean sea level by 1.8 m this century.
Lennert B. Stap, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Bas de Boer, Richard Bintanja, and Lucas J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 13, 1243–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1243-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1243-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We show the results of transient simulations with a coupled climate–ice sheet model over the past 38 million years. The CO2 forcing of the model is inversely obtained from a benthic δ18O stack. These simulations enable us to study the influence of ice sheet variability on climate change on long timescales. We find that ice sheet–climate interaction strongly enhances Earth system sensitivity and polar amplification.
Michiel M. Helsen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas J. Reerink, Richard Bintanja, Marianne S. Madsen, Shuting Yang, Qiang Li, and Qiong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 11, 1949–1965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1949-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheets reflect most incoming solar radiation back into space due to their high reflectivity (albedo). The albedo of ice sheets changes as a function of, for example, liquid water content and ageing of snow. In this study we have improved the description of albedo over the Greenland ice sheet in a global climate model. This is an important step, which also improves estimates of the annual ice mass gain or loss over the ice sheet using this global climate model.
Markella Prokopiou, Patricia Martinerie, Célia J. Sapart, Emmanuel Witrant, Guillaume Monteil, Kentaro Ishijima, Sophie Bernard, Jan Kaiser, Ingeborg Levin, Thomas Blunier, David Etheridge, Ed Dlugokencky, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Thomas Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4539–4564, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4539-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4539-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrous oxide is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas with an increasing mole fraction. To understand its natural and anthropogenic sources
we employ isotope measurements. Results show that while the N2O mole fraction increases, its heavy isotope content decreases. The isotopic changes observed underline the dominance of agricultural emissions especially at the early part of the record, whereas in the later decades the contribution from other anthropogenic sources increases.
Constantijn J. Berends and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4451–4460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4451-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4451-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes several improvements to the so-called "flood-fill algorithm" – a computer program widely known for its use in the "paint bucket" tool in several drawing programs such as MS Paint. However, it can also be used to determine the extent and depth of lakes in a topography map, which is useful in hydrology and climatology. In such cases, the default algorithm can be too slow to be of much use. Our improvements can make it up to 100 times faster, making it much more feasible.
Thomas J. Reerink, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4111–4132, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4111-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheets are part of the climate system and interact with the atmosphere and the ocean. OBLIMAP is a powerful tool to map climate fields between GCMs and ISMs (ice sheet models), which run on grids that differ in curvature, resolution and extent. OBLIMAP uses optimal aligned oblique projections, which minimize area distortions. OBLIMAP 2.0 allows for high-frequency embedded coupling and masked mapping. A fast search strategy realizes a huge performance gain and enables high-resolution mapping.
Peter Köhler, Lennert B. Stap, Anna S. von der Heydt, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-23, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Evidence indicate that specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global annual mean surface temperature change as a response to a change in radiative forcing, is state dependent. We here show that the interpretation of data in the state-dependent case is not straightforward. We analyse the differences of a point-wise approach and one based on a piece-wise linear analysis, combine both, compare with potential model results and apply the theoretical concepts to data of the last 800 kyr.
P. Köhler, B. de Boer, A. S. von der Heydt, L. B. Stap, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 11, 1801–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We find that the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity due to radiative forcing of CO2 and land ice albedo has been state-dependent for the last 2.1Myr (most of the Pleistocene). Its value is ~45% larger during intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. The state dependency is mainly caused by a latitudinal dependency in ice sheet area changes. Due to uncertainties in CO2, firm conclusions for the Pliocene are not yet possible.
B. Noël, W. J. van de Berg, E. van Meijgaard, P. Kuipers Munneke, R. S. W. van de Wal, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 9, 1831–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We compare Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated polar version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 and the previous version 2.1. RACMO2.3 has an adjusted rainfall-to-snowfall conversion favouring summer snowfall over rainfall. Enhanced summer snowfall reduce melt rates in the ablation zone by covering dark ice with highly reflective fresh snow. This improves the modelled SMB-elevation gradient and surface energy balance compared to observations in west Greenland.
L. G. van der Wel, H. A. Been, R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and H. A. J. Meijer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1089–1103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1089-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1089-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We performed 2H isotope diffusion measurements in the upper 3 metres of firn at Summit, Greenland, by following over a 4-year period isotope-enriched snow that we deposited.
We found that the diffusion process was much less rapid than in the most commonly used model. We discuss several aspects of the diffusion process that are still poorly constrained and might lead to this discrepancy. Quantitative knowledge of diffusion is necessary for use of the diffusion process itself as a climate proxy.
B. de Boer, A. M. Dolan, J. Bernales, E. Gasson, H. Goelzer, N. R. Golledge, J. Sutter, P. Huybrechts, G. Lohmann, I. Rogozhina, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 9, 881–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an intercomparison project with six ice-sheet models. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of all models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line. Improved grounding-line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.
R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, W. Boot, M. Stoffelen, R. van Kampen, S. H. Doyle, F. Wilhelms, M. R. van den Broeke, C. H. Reijmer, J. Oerlemans, and A. Hubbard
The Cryosphere, 9, 603–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-603-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-603-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper addresses the feedback between ice flow and melt rates. Using 20 years of data covering the whole ablation area, we show that there is not a strong positive correlation between annual ice velocities and melt rates. Rapid variations around the equilibrium line indicate the possibility of rapid variations high on the ice sheet.
S. J. Koenig, A. M. Dolan, B. de Boer, E. J. Stone, D. J. Hill, R. M. DeConto, A. Abe-Ouchi, D. J. Lunt, D. Pollard, A. Quiquet, F. Saito, J. Savage, and R. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 11, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The paper assess the Greenland Ice Sheet’s sensitivity to a warm period in the past, a time when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to current levels. We quantify ice sheet volume and locations in Greenland and find that the ice sheets are less sensitive to differences in ice sheet model configurations than to changes in imposed climate forcing. We conclude that Pliocene ice was most likely to be limited to highest elevations in eastern and southern Greenland.
P. M. Alexander, M. Tedesco, X. Fettweis, R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 8, 2293–2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, 2014
L. B. Stap, R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, R. Bintanja, and L. J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 10, 2135–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, 2014
B. de Boer, P. Stocchi, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2141–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014, 2014
A. B. A. Slangen, R. S. W. van de Wal, Y. Wada, and L. L. A. Vermeersen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 243–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-243-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-243-2014, 2014
M. M. Helsen, W. J. van de Berg, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, and J. Oerlemans
Clim. Past, 9, 1773–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, 2013
M. M. Helsen, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 6, 255–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, 2012
R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, L. J. Lourens, P. Köhler, and R. Bintanja
Clim. Past, 7, 1459–1469, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1459-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1459-2011, 2011
A. B. A. Slangen and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 5, 673–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-673-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-673-2011, 2011
D. Liebrand, L. J. Lourens, D. A. Hodell, B. de Boer, R. S. W. van de Wal, and H. Pälike
Clim. Past, 7, 869–880, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-869-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-869-2011, 2011
I. G. M. Wientjes, R. S. W. Van de Wal, G. J. Reichart, A. Sluijs, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 5, 589–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-589-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-589-2011, 2011
M. R. van den Broeke, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 5, 377–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-377-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-377-2011, 2011
M. A. G. den Ouden, C. H. Reijmer, V. Pohjola, R. S. W. van de Wal, J. Oerlemans, and W. Boot
The Cryosphere, 4, 593–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-593-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-593-2010, 2010
T. J. Reerink, M. A. Kliphuis, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 13–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-13-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-13-2010, 2010
M. van den Broeke, P. Smeets, J. Ettema, C. van der Veen, R. van de Wal, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 2, 179–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-179-2008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-179-2008, 2008
J. Oerlemans, M. Dyurgerov, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 1, 59–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-1-59-2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-1-59-2007, 2007
J. O. Sewall, R. S. W. van de Wal, K. van der Zwan, C. van Oosterhout, H. A. Dijkstra, and C. R. Scotese
Clim. Past, 3, 647–657, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-647-2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-647-2007, 2007
Related subject area
Subject: Ice Dynamics | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Pleistocene
Climate and ice sheet dynamics in Patagonia throughout marine isotope stages 2 and 3
Relative importance of the mechanisms triggering the Eurasian ice sheet deglaciation in the GRISLI2.0 ice sheet model
Simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet over two glacial–interglacial cycles: investigating a sub-ice- shelf melt parameterization and relative sea level forcing in an ice-sheet–ice-shelf model
The sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to glacial–interglacial oceanic forcing
Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet–climate model
Modeling Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet distribution during MIS 5 and MIS 7 glacial inceptions
Andrés Castillo-Llarena, Franco Retamal-Ramírez, Jorge Bernales, Martín Jacques-Coper, Matthias Prange, and Irina Rogozhina
Clim. Past, 20, 1559–1577, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During the last glacial period, the Patagonian Ice Sheet grew along the southern Andes, leaving marks on the landscape showing its former extents and timing. We use paleoclimate and ice sheet models to replicate its glacial history. We find that errors in the model-based ice sheet are likely induced by imprecise reconstructions of air temperature due to poorly resolved Andean topography in global climate models, while a fitting regional climate history is only captured by local sediment records.
Victor van Aalderen, Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, and Aurélien Quiquet
Clim. Past, 20, 187–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present idealized numerical experiments to test the main mechanisms that triggered the deglaciation of the past Eurasian ice sheet. Simulations were performed with the GRISLI2.0 ice sheet model. The results indicate that the Eurasian ice sheet was primarily driven by surface melting, due to increased atmospheric temperatures. Basal melting below the ice shelves is only a significant driver if ocean temperatures increase by nearly 10 °C, in contrast with the findings of previous studies.
Sarah L. Bradley, Thomas J. Reerink, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel M. Helsen
Clim. Past, 14, 619–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-619-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-619-2018, 2018
Ilaria Tabone, Javier Blasco, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Marisa Montoya
Clim. Past, 14, 455–472, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-455-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-455-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) to palaeo-oceanic changes on a glacial–interglacial timescale is studied from a modelling perspective. A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet–shelf model which includes a parameterization of the basal melting rate at the GrIS marine margins is used. The results show that the oceanic forcing plays a key role in the GrIS evolution, not only by controlling the ice retreat during the deglaciation but also by driving the ice expansion in glacial periods.
Heiko Goelzer, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-France Loutre, and Thierry Fichefet
Clim. Past, 12, 2195–2213, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2195-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2195-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution during the Last Interglacial (~ 130 to 115 kyr BP), the most recent warm period in Earth’s history. Our Earth system model includes components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Our simulation is in good agreement with available data reconstructions and gives important insights into the dominant mechanisms that caused ice sheet changes in the past.
F. Colleoni, S. Masina, A. Cherchi, A. Navarra, C. Ritz, V. Peyaud, and B. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 10, 269–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-269-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-269-2014, 2014
Cited articles
Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., Kawamura, K., Raymo, M. E., Okuno, J., Takahashi, K., and Blatter, H.: Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume, Nature, 500, 190–193, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12374, 2013.
Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., Kageyama, M., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Lambeck, K., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Peltier, W. R., Tarasov, L., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., and Takahashi, K.: Ice-sheet configuration in the CMIP5/PMIP3 Last Glacial Maximum experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3621–3637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, 2015.
Ahn, S., Khider, D., Lisiecki, L. E., and Lawrence, C. E.: A probabilistic Pliocene–Pleistocene stack of benthic δ18O using a profile hidden Markov model, Dynam. Stat. Clim. Syst., 2, dzx002, https://doi.org/10.1093/climsys/dzx002, 2017.
Alder, J. R. and Hostetler, S. W.: Applying the Community Ice Sheet Model to evaluate PMIP3 LGM climatologies over the North American ice sheets, Clim. Dynam., 53, 2807–2824, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04663-x, 2019.
Amante, C. and Eakins, B. W.: ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis. NOAA Technical Memorandum NESDIS NGDC-24, National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA [data set], https://doi.org/10.7289/V5C8276M, 2009.
Annan, J. D., Hargreaves, J. C., and Mauritsen, T.: A new global surface temperature reconstruction for the Last Glacial Maximum, Clim. Past, 18, 1883–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1883-2022, 2022.
Austermann, J., Wickert, A. D., Pico, T., Kingslake, J., Callaghan, K. L., and Creel, R. C.: Glacial isostatic adjustment shapes proglacial lakes over glacial cycles, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL101191, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101191, 2022.
Batchelor, C. L., Margold, M., Krapp, M., Murton, D., Dalton, A. S., Gibbard, P. L., Stokes, C. R., Murton, J. B., and Manica, A.: The configuration of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the Quaternary, Nat. Commun., 10, 3713, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11601-2, 2019.
Beghin, P., Charbit, S., Dumas, C., Kageyama, M., and Ritz, C.: How might the North American ice sheet influence the northwestern Eurasian climate?, Clim. Past, 11, 1467–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1467-2015, 2015.
Benn, D. I., Warren, C. R., and Mottram, R. H.: Calving processes and the dynamics of calving glaciers, Earth-Sci. Rev., 82, 143–179, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EARSCIREV.2007.02.002, 2007.
Bereiter, B., Eggleston, S., Schmitt, J., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Stocker, T. F., Fischer, H., Kipfstuhl, S., and Chappellaz, J.: Revision of the EPICA Dome C CO2 record from 800 to 600 kyr before present, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 542–549, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061957, 2015.
Berends, C. J. and van de Wal, R. S. W.: A computationally efficient depression-filling algorithm for digital elevation models, applied to proglacial lake drainage, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4451–4460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4451-2016, 2016.
Berends, C. J., de Boer, B., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Application of HadCM3@Bristolv1.0 simulations of paleoclimate as forcing for an ice-sheet model, ANICE2.1: set-up and benchmark experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4657–4675, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4657-2018, 2018.
Berends, C. J., de Boer, B., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Reconstructing the evolution of ice sheets, sea level, and atmospheric CO2 during the past 3.6 million years, Clim. Past, 17, 361–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, 2021a.
Berends, C. J., Köhler, P., Lourens, L. J., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: On the cause of the mid-Pleistocene transition, Rev. Geophys., 59, e2020RG000727, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000727, 2021b.
Berends, C. J., Goelzer, H., Reerink, T. J., Stap, L. B., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Benchmarking the vertically integrated ice-sheet model IMAU-ICE (version 2.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5667–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, 2022 (code available at: https://github.com/IMAU-paleo/IMAU-ICE, last access: 31 July 2024).
Bintanja, R., van de Wal, R. S. W., and Oerlemans, J.: Global ice volume variations through the last glacial cycle simulated by a 3-D ice dynamical model, Quatern. Int., 95–96, 11–23, 2002.
Bonelli, S., Charbit, S., Kageyama, M., Woillez, M.-N., Ramstein, G., Dumas, C., and Quiquet, A.: Investigating the evolution of major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, Clim. Past, 5, 329–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-329-2009, 2009.
Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Abe-Ouchi, A., Jungclaus, J. H., and Peterschmitt, J.-Y.: The Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project contribution to CMIP5, CLIVAR Exchanges, 56, 15–19, 2011.
Budich, R., Gioretta, M., Jungclaus, J., Redler, R., and Reick, C.: The MPI-M Millennium Earth System Model: An assembling guide for the COSMOS configuration, Tech. rep., Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, https://pure.mpg. de/rest/items/item_2193290/component/file_2193291/content (last access: 2 February 2023), 2010.
Bueler, E. and Brown, J.: The shallow shelf approximation as a sliding law in a thermomechanically coupled ice sheet model, J. Geophys. Res., 114, F03008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JF001179, 2009.
Bueler, E. and van Pelt, W.: Mass-conserving subglacial hydrology in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model version 0.6, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1613–1635, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1613-2015, 2015.
Carrivick, J. L. and Quincey, D. J.: Progressive increase in number and volume of ice-marginal lakes on the western margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Global Planet. Change, 116, 156–163, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.02.009, 2014.
Carrivick, J. L., How, P., Lea, J. M., Sutherland, J. L., Grimes, M., Tweed, F. S., Cornford, S., Quincey, D. J., and Mallalieu, J.: Ice-Marginal Proglacial Lakes Across Greenland: Present Status and a Possible Future, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL099276, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099276, 2022.
Charbit, S., Ritz, C., Philippon, G., Peyaud, V., and Kageyama, M.: Numerical reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the last glacial-interglacial cycle, Clim. Past, 3, 15–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-15-2007, 2007.
Clark, P. and Pollard, D.: Origin of the Middle Pleistocene Transition by ice sheet erosion of regolith, Paleoceanography, 13, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1029/97PA02660, 1998.
Clark, P. U. and Tarasov, L.: Closing the sea level budget at the Last Glacial Maximum, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 111, 15861–15862, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1418970111, 2014.
Claussen, M., Ganopolski, A., Brovkin, V., Gerstengarbe, F.-W., and Werner, P.: Simulated global-scale response of the climate system to Dansgaard/Oeschger and Heinrich events, Clim. Dynam., 21, 361–370, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0336-2, 2003.
Condron, A. and Winsor, P.: Meltwater routing and the Younger Dryas, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 109, 19928–19933, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1207381109, 2012.
Cutler, P. M., Mickelson, D. M., Colgan, P. M., MacAyeal, D. R., and Parizek, B. R.: Influence of the Great Lakes on the Dynamics of the Southern Laurentide Ice Sheet: Numerical Experiments, Geology, 29, 1039–1042, https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(2001)029<1039:IOTGLO>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Dalton, A. S., Margold, M., Stokes, C. R., Tarasov, L., Dyke, A. S., Adams, R. S., Allard, S., Arends, H. E., Atkinson, N., Attig, J. W., Barnett, P. J., Barnett, R. L., Batterson, M., Bernatchez, P., Borns, H. W., Breckenridge, A., Briner, J. P., Brouard, E., Campbell, J. E., Carlson, A. E., Clague, J. J., Curry, B. B., Daigneault, R. A., Dubé-Loubert, H., Easterbrook, D. J., Franzi, D. A., Friedrich, H. G., Funder, S., Gauthier, M. S., Gowan, A. S., Harris, K. L., Hétu, B., Hooyer, T. S., Jennings, C. E., Johnson, M. D., Kehew, A. E., Kelley, S. E., Kerr, D., King, E. L., Kjeldsen, K. K., Knaeble, A. R., Lajeunesse, P., Lakeman, T. R., Lamothe, M., Larson, P., Lavoie, M., Loope, H. M., Lowell, T. V., Lusardi, B. A., Manz, L., McMartin, I., Nixon, F. C., Occhietti, S., Parkhill, M. A., Piper, D. J., Pronk, A. G., Richard, P. J., Ridge, J. C., Ross, M., Roy, M., Seaman, A., Shaw, J., Stea, R. R., Teller, J. T., Thompson, W. B., Thorleifson, L. H., Utting, D. J., Veillette, J. J., Ward, B. C., Weddle, T. K., and Wright, H. E.: An updated radiocarbon-based ice margin chronology for the last deglaciation of the North American Ice Sheet Complex, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 234, 106223, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106223, 2020.
de Boer, B., van de Wal, R., Lourens, L. J., Bintanja, R., and Reerink, T. J.: A continuous simulation of global ice volume over the past 1 million years with 3-D ice-sheet models, Clim. Dynam., 41, 1365–1384, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1562-2, 2013.
Denton, G. H., Anderson, R. F., Toggweiler, J., Edwards, R., Schaefer, J., and Putnam, A.: The last glacial termination, Science, 328, 1652–1656, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1184119, 2010.
Dufresne, J.-L., Foujols, M.-A., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bekki, S., Bellenger, H., Benshila, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Cheruy, F., Codron, F. F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., de Noblet, N., Duvel, J.-P., Ethé, C., Fairhead, L., Fichefet, T., Flavoni, S., Friedlingstein, P., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guez, L., Guilyardi, E., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Ghattas, J., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Krinner, G., Labetoulle, S., Lahellec, A., Lefèbvre, M.-P., Lefèvre, F., Lévy, C., Li, Z. X., Lloyd, J., Lott, F., Madec, G., Mancip, M., Marchand, M., Masson, S., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Parouty, S., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Schulz, M., Swingedouw, D., Szopa, S., Talandier, C., Terray, P., and Viovy, N.: Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2123–2165, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1, 2013.
Feldmann, J., Albrecht, T., Khroulev, C., Pattyn, F., and Levermann, A.: Resolution-dependent performance of grounding line motion in a shallow model compared with a full-Stokes model according to the MISMIP3d intercomparison, J. Glaciol., 60, 353–359, https://doi.org/10.3189/2014JoG13J093, 2014.
Fettweis, X., Hofer, S., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Amory, C., Aoki, T., Berends, C. J., Born, A., Box, J. E., Delhasse, A., Fujita, K., Gierz, P., Goelzer, H., Hanna, E., Hashimoto, A., Huybrechts, P., Kapsch, M.-L., King, M. D., Kittel, C., Lang, C., Langen, P. L., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Liston, G. E., Lohmann, G., Mernild, S. H., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Mottram, R. H., Niwano, M., Noël, B. P. Y., Ryan, J. C., Smith, A., Streffing, J., Tedesco, M., van de Berg, W. J., van den Broeke, M. R., van de Wal, R. S. W., van Kampenhout, L., Wilton, D., Wouters, B., Ziemen, F., and Zolles, T.: GrSMBMIP: intercomparison of the modelled 1980–2012 surface mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020.
Flowers, G. E.: Modelling water flow under glaciers and ice sheets, P. Roy. Soc. A, 471, 20140907, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2014.0907, 2015.
Forte, A., Moucha, R., Simmons, N. A., Grand, S. P., and Mitrovica, J. X.: Deep-mantle contributions to the surface dynamics of the North American continent, Tectonophysics, 481, 3–15, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2009.06.010, 2010.
Ganopolski, A. and Calov, R.: The role of orbital forcing, carbon dioxide and regolith in 100 kyr glacial cycles, Clim. Past, 7, 1415–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1415-2011, 2011.
Geirsdóttir, Á., Miller, G. H., Wattrus, N. J., Björnsson, H., and Thors, K.: Stabilization of glaciers terminating in closed water bodies: Evidence and broader implications, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034432, 2008.
Gomez, N., Weber, M. E., Clark, P. U., Mitrovica, J. X., and Han, H. K.: Antarctic ice dynamics amplified by Northern Hemisphere sea-level forcing, Nature, 587, 600–604, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2916-2, 2020.
Gowan, E. J., Niu, L., Knorr, G., and Lohmann, G.: Geology datasets in North America, Greenland and surrounding areas for use with ice sheet models, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-375-2019, 2019.
Gowan, E. J., Zhang, X., Khosravi, S., Rovere, A., Stocchi, P., Hughes, A. L. C., Gyllencreutz, R., Mangerud, J., Svendsen, J. I., and Lohmann, G.: A new global ice sheet reconstruction for the past 80 000 years, Nat. Commun., 12, 1199, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21469-w, 2021.
Grant, K. M., Rohling, E. J., Bronk Ramsey, C., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Florindo, F., Heslop, D., Marra, F., Roberts, A. P., Tamisiea, M. E., and Williams, F.: Sea-level variability over five glacial cycles, Nat. Commun., 5, 5076, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6076, 2014.
Hasenfratz, A. P., Jaccard, S. L., Martínez-García, A., Sigman, D. M., Hodell, D. A., Vance, D., Bernasconi, S. M., Kleiven, H. F., Haumann, F. A., and Haug, G. H.: The residence time of Southern Ocean surface waters and the 100 000-year ice age cycle, Science, 363, 1080–1084, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat7067, 2019.
Hearty, P. J., Kindler, P., Cheng, H., and Edwards, R. L.: A +20 m middle Pleistocene sea-level highstand (Bermuda and the Bahamas) due to partial collapse of Antarctic ice, Geology, 27, 375–378, https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1999)027<0375:AMMPSL>2.3.CO;2, 1999.
Hildes, D. H., Clarke, G. K., Flowers, G. E., and Marshall, S. J.: Subglacial erosion and englacial sediment transport modelled for North American ice sheets, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 23, 409–430, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.06.005, 2004.
Hinck, S., Gowan, E. J., Zhang, X., and Lohmann, G.: PISM-LakeCC: Implementing an adaptive proglacial lake boundary in an ice sheet model, The Cryosphere, 16, 941–965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-941-2022, 2022.
Hoffman, M. J. and Price, S.: Feedbacks between coupled sub-glacial hydrology and glacier dynamics, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 119, 414–436, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JF002943, 2014.
Hughes, A. L. C., Gyllencreutz, R., Lohne, Ø. S., Mangerud, J., and Svendsen, J. I.: The last Eurasian ice sheets – a chronological database and time-slice reconstruction, DATED-1, Boreas, 45, 1–45, https://doi.org/10.1111/bor.12142, 2015.
Huybrechts, P. and de Wolde, J.: The dynamic response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to multiple-century climatic warming, J. Climate, 1, 2169–2188, 1999.
Janssens, I. and Huybrechts, P.: The treatment of meltwater retention in mass-balance parameterizations of the Greenland ice sheet, Ann. Glaciol., 31, 133–140, 2000.
Jungclaus, J., Giorgetta, M., Reick, C., Legutke, S., Brovkin, V., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fieg, K., Fischer, N., Glushak, K., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Hollweg, H.-D., Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Matei, D., Mauritsen, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Müller, W., Notz, D., Pohlmann, T., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Roeckner, E., Salzmann, M., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Segschneider, J., Six, K., Stockhause, M., Wegner, J., Widmann, H., Wieners, K.-H., Claussen, M., Marotzke, J., and Stevens, B.: CMIP5 simulations of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) based on the MPI- ESM-P model: The lgm experiment, served by ESGF, WDCC at DKRZ, https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/CMIP5.MXEPlg, 2012.
Lambeck, K., Rouby, H., Purcell, A., Sun, Y., and Sambridge, M.: Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 15296–15303, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1411762111, 2014.
Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A. C. M., and Levrard, B.: A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth, Astron. Astrophys., 428, 261–285, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:20041335, 2004.
Laske, G. and Masters, G.: A Global Digital Map of Sediment Thickness, EOS T. Am. Geophys. Union, https://igppweb.ucsd.edu/~gabi/sediment.html (last access: 30 July 2024), 1997.
Leguy, G. R., Lipscomb, W. H., and Asay-Davis, X. S.: Marine ice sheet experiments with the Community Ice Sheet Model, The Cryosphere, 15, 3229–3253, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021, 2021.
Le Meur, E. and Huybrechts, P.: A comparison of different ways of dealing with isostasy: examples from modeling the Antarctic ice sheet during the last glacial cycle, Ann. Glaciol., 23, 309–317, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0260305500013586, 1996.
Lepper, K., Buell, A. W., Fisher, T. G., and Lowell, T. V.: A chronology for glacial Lake Agassiz shorelines along Upham's namesake transect, Quatern. Res., 80, 88–98, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2013.02.002, 2013.
Liakka, J., Löfverström, M., and Colleoni, F.: The impact of the North American glacial topography on the evolution of the Eurasian ice sheet over the last glacial cycle, Clim. Past, 12, 1225–1241, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1225-2016, 2016.
Löfverström, M., Caballero, R., Nilsson, J., and Messori, G.: Stationary Wave Reflection as a Mechanism for Zonalizing the Atlantic Winter Jet at the LGM, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 3329–3342, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0295.1, 2016.
Löfverström, M., Thompson, D. M., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., and Brady, E. C.: The importance of Canadian Arctic Archipelago gateways for glacial expansion in Scandinavia, Nat. Geosci., 15, 482-488, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00956-9, 2022.
Mangerud, J., Alexanderson, H., Birks, H. H., Paus, A., Perić, Z. M., and Svendsen, J. I.: Did the Eurasian ice sheets melt completely in early Marine Isotope Stage 3? New evidence from Norway and a synthesis for Eurasia, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 317, 108274, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108136, 2023.
Martin, M. A., Winkelmann, R., Haseloff, M., Albrecht, T., Bueler, E., Khroulev, C., and Levermann, A.: The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) – Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 5, 727–740, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-727-2011, 2011.
McManus, J. F., Francois, R., Gherardi, J. M., Keigwin, L. D., and Brown-Leger, S.: Collapse and rapid resumption of Atlantic meridional circulation linked to deglacial climate changes, Nature, 428, 834–837, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02494, 2004.
Melanson, A., Bell, T., and Tarasov, L.: Numerical modelling of subglacial erosion and sediment transport and its application to the North American ice sheets over the Last Glacial cycle, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 68, 154–174, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.02.017, 2013.
Menviel, L.: The southern amplifier, Science, 363, 1040–1041, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7196, 2019.
Milankovitch, M.: Kanon der Erdbestrahlung und Seine Andwendung auf das Eiszeitenproblem, Royal Serbian Academy Special Publication 132, Royal Serbian Academy, Belgrade, Serbia, 1941.
Niu, L., Lohmann, G., Hinck, S., Gowan, E. J., and Krebs-Kanzow, U.: The sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to atmospheric forcing during the last glacial cycle using PMIP3 models, J. Glaciol., 65, 645–661, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.42, 2019.
NSIDC: IceBridge BedMachine Greenland, Version 1, NSICDC [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/5XKQD5Y5V3VN, 2024.
Obase, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Saito, F.: Abrupt climate changes in the last two deglaciations simulated with different Northern ice sheet discharge and insolation, Sci. Rep., 11, 22359, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01651-2, 2021.
Ohmura, A., Calanca, P., Wild, M., and Anklin, M.: Precipitation, accumulation and mass balance of the Greenland Ice sheet, Z. Gletscherkd. Glazialgeol., 35, 1–20, 1999.
Otto-Bliesner, B. L. and Brady, E. C.: The sensitivity of the climate response to the magnitude and location of freshwater forcing: last glacial maximum experiments, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 56–73, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.07.004, 2010.
Parrenin, F. and Paillard, D.: Amplitude and phase of glacial cycles from a conceptual model, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 214, 243–250, 2003.
Patton, H., Hubbard, A., Andreassen, K., Auriac, A., Whitehouse, P. L., Stroeven, A. P., Shackleton, C., Winsborrow, M., Heyman, J., and Hall, A. M.: Deglaciation of the Eurasian ice sheet complex, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 169, 148–172, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.05.019, 2017.
Pattyn, F.: The paradigm shift in Antarctic ice sheet modelling, Nat. Commun., 9, 2728, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05003-z, 2018.
Pattyn, F., Schoof, C., Perichon, L., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Bueler, E., de Fleurian, B., Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., Gladstone, R., Goldberg, D., Gudmundsson, G. H., Huybrechts, P., Lee, V., Nick, F. M., Payne, A. J., Pollard, D., Rybak, O., Saito, F., and Vieli, A.: Results of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP, The Cryosphere, 6, 573–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-573-2012, 2012.
Pattyn, F., Perichon, L., Durand, G., Favier, L., Gagliardini, O., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Zwinger, T., Albrecht, T., Cornford, S., Docquier, D., Fürst, J. J., Goldberg, D., Gudmundsson, G. H., Humbert, A., Hütten, M., Huybrechts, P., Jouvet, G., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Martin, D., Morlighem, M., Payne, A. J., Pollard, D., Rückamp, M., Rybak, O., Seroussi, H., Thoma, M., and Wilkens, N.: Grounding-line migration in plan-view marine ice-sheet models: results of the ice2sea MISMIP3d intercomparison, J. Glaciol., 59, 410–422, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J129, 2013.
Pausata, F. S. R., Li, C., Wettstein, J. J., Kageyama, M., and Nisancioglu, K. H.: The key role of topography in altering North Atlantic atmospheric circulation during the last glacial period, Clim. Past, 7, 1089–1101, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1089-2011, 2011.
Peltier, W. R.: The impulse response of a Maxwell Earth, Rev. Geophys., 12, 649–669, https://doi.org/10.1029/RG012i004p00649, 1974.
Pollard, D.: A retrospective look at coupled ice sheet–climate modeling, Climatic Change, 100, 173–194, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9830-9, 2010.
Pritchard, H. D., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Fricker, H. A., Vaughan, D. G., Van Den Broeke, M. R., and Padman, L.: Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves, Nature, 484, 502–505, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10968, 2012.
Quiquet, A., Dumas, C., Paillard, D., Ramstein, G., Ritz, C., and Roche, D. M.: Deglacial Ice Sheet Instabilities Induced by Proglacial Lakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL092141, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092141, 2021.
Raymo, M. E. and Mitrovica, J. X.: Collapse of polar ice sheets during the stage 11 interglacial, Nature, 483, 453–456, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10891, 2012.
Rignot, E. and Jacobs, S.: Rapid Bottom Melting Widespread near Antarctic Ice Sheet Grounding Lines, Science, 296, 2020–2023, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1070942, 2002.
Ritz, C., Edwards, T. L., Durand, G., Payne, A. J., Peyaud, V., and Hindmarsh, R. C. A.: Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations, Nature, 528, 115–118, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16147, 2015.
Roe, G. H. and Lindzen, R. S.: The Mutual Interaction between Continental-Scale Ice Sheets and Atmospheric Stationary Waves, J. Climate, 14, 1450–1465, 2001.
Scherrenberg, M.: Scherrenberg et al. (2024) supplement (Climate of the past): Ice-sheet model code, and output of Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet evolution of the past 800 kyr, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11634769, 2024.
Scherrenberg, M. D. W., Berends, C. J., Stap, L. B., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Modelling feedbacks between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and climate during the last glacial cycle, Clim. Past, 19, 399–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, 2023.
Schoof, C.: Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and hysteresis, J. Geophys. Res., 112, F03S28, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000664, 2007.
Schoof, C.: Marine ice sheet stability, J. Fluid Mech., 698, 62–72, https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2012.43, 2012.
Shepherd, A., Ivins, E., Rignot, E., Smith, B., Van Den Broeke, M., Velicogna, I., Whitehouse, P., Briggs, K., Joughin, I., Krinner, G., Nowicki, S., Payne, T., Scambos, T., Schlegel, N., Geruo, A., Agosta, C., Ahlstrøm, A., Babonis, G., Barletta, V., Blazquez, A., Bonin, J., Csatho, B., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Forsberg, R., Gallee, H., Gardner, A., Gilbert, L., Groh, A., Gunter, B., Hanna, E., Harig, C., Helm, V., Horvath, A., Horwath, M., Khan, S., Kjeldsen, K. K., Konrad, H., Langen, P., Lecavalier, B., Loomis, B., Luthcke, S., McMillan, M., Melini, D., Mernild, S., Mohajerani, Y., Moore, P., Mouginot, J., Moyano, G., Muir, A., Nagler, T., Nield, G., Nilsson, J., Noel, B., Otosaka, I., Pattle, M. E., Peltier, W. R., Pie, N., Rietbroek, R., Rott, H., Sandberg-Sørensen, L., Sasgen, I., Save, H., Scheuchl, B., Schrama, E., Schröder, L., Seo, K. W., Simonsen, S., Slater, T., Spada, G., Sutterley, T., Talpe, M., Tarasov, L., Van De Berg, W. J., Van Der Wal, W., Van Wessem, M., Vishwakarma, B. D., Wiese, D., and Wouters, B.: Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017, Nature, 558, 219–222, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y, 2018.
Siegenthaler, U., Stocker, T. F., Monnin, E., Luthi, D., Schwander, J., Stauffer, B., Raynaud, D., Barnola, J.-M., Fischer, H., and Masson-Delmotte, V.: Stable carbon cycle climate relationship during the Late Pleistocene, Science, 310, 1313–1317, 2005.
Sigman, D., Fripiat, F., Studer, A. S., Kemeny, P. C., Martínez-García, A., Hain, M. P., Ai, X., Wang, X., Ren, H., and Haug, G. H.: The Southern Ocean during the ice ages: A review of the Antarctic surface isolation hypothesis, with comparison to the North Pacific, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 254, 106732, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106732, 2021.
Simms, A. R., Lisiecki, L., Gebbie, G., Whitehouse, P. L., and Clark, J. F.: Balancing the last glacial maximum (LGM) sea level budget, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 205, 143–153, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.12.018, 2019.
Spratt, R. M. and Lisiecki, L. E.: A Late Pleistocene sea level stack, Clim. Past, 12, 1079–1092, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1079-2016, 2016.
Stap, L. B., van de Wal, R. S. W., de Boer, B., Bintanja, R., and Lourens, L. J.: Interaction of ice sheets and climate during the past 800 000 years, Clim. Past, 10, 2135–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, 2014.
Sueyoshi, T., Ohgaito, R., Yamamoto, A., Chikamoto, M. O., Hajima, T., Okajima, H., Yoshimori, M., Abe, M., O'ishi, R., Saito, F., Watanabe, S., Kawamiya, M., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Set-up of the PMIP3 paleoclimate experiments conducted using an Earth system model, MIROC-ESM, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 819–836, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-819-2013, 2013.
Sugiyama, S., Minowa, M., Sakakibara, D., Skvarca, P., Sawagaki, T., Ohashi, Y., Naito, N., and Chikita, K.: Thermal structure of proglacial lakes in Patagonia, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 121, 2270–2286, 2016.
Sun, S., Pattyn, F., Simon, E. G., Albrecht, T., Cornford, S., Calov, R., Dumas, C., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Kazmierczak, E., Kleiner, T., Leguy, G. R., Lipscomb, W. H., Martin, D., Morlighem, M., Nowicki, S., Pollard, D., Price, S., Quiquet, A., Seroussi, H., Schlemm, T., Sutter, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., and Zhang, T.: Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP), J. Glaciol., 66, 891–904, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.67, 2020.
Tabor, C. R. and Poulsen, C. J.: Simulating the mid-Pleistocene transition through regolith removal, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 434, 231–240, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.11.034, 2016.
Tarasov, L. and Peltier, W. R.: Terminating the 100 kyr Ice Age cycle, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 21665–21693, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD01766, 1997.
Tarasov, L. and Peltier, W.: Arctic freshwater forcing of the Younger Dryas cold reversal, Nature, 435, 662–665, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03617, 2005.
Tarasov, L. and Peltier, W. R.: A calibrated deglacial drainage chronology for the North American continent: Evidence of an Arctic trigger for the Younger Dryas, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 25, 659–688, 2006.
Teller, J. T., Leverington, D. W., and Mann, J. D.: Freshwater outbursts to the oceans from glacial Lake Agassiz and their role in climate change during the last deglaciation, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 879–887, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00145-7, 2002.
Ullman, D. J., LeGrande, A. N., Carlson, A. E., Anslow, F. S., and Licciardi, J. M.: Assessing the impact of Laurentide Ice Sheet topography on glacial climate, Clim. Past, 10, 487–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, 2014.
Upham, W.: The geology of central and western Minnesota. A preliminary report. By Warren Upham, assistant on the Geological and Natural History Survey of the state, under the direction of Prof. N. H. Winchell. [From the General Report of Progress for the Year 1879], St. Paul, The Pioneer Press Co., https://doi.org/10.1017/S0016756800117194, 1881.
Uppala, S. M., Kållberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., da Costa Bechtold, V., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J. K., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly, G. A., Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R. P., Andersson, E., Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M. A., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher, M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Hólm, E., Hoskins, B. J., Isaksen, L., Janssen, P. A. E. M., Jenne, R., McNally, A. P., Mahfouf, J.-F., Morcrette, J.-J., Rayner, N. A., Saunders, R. W., Simon, P., Sterl, A., Trenberth, K. E., Untch, A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P., and Woollen, J.: The ERA-40 re-analysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2961–3012, 2005.
van Aalderen, V., Charbit, S., Dumas, C., and Quiquet, A.: Relative importance of the mechanisms triggering the Eurasian ice sheet deglaciation in the GRISLI2.0 ice sheet model, Clim. Past, 20, 187–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-187-2024, 2024.
van Calcar, C. J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Blank, B., de Boer, B., and van der Wal, W.: Simulation of a fully coupled 3D glacial isostatic adjustment – ice sheet model for the Antarctic ice sheet over a glacial cycle, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5473–5492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, 2023.
Velay-Vitow, J., Chandan, D., and Peltier, W. R.: Into the Holocene, anatomy of the Younger Dryas cold reversal and preboreal oscillation, Sci. Rep., 14, 3134, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-53591-2, 2024.
Warren, C. R. and Kirkbride, M. P.: Calving speed and climatic sensitivity of New Zealand lake-calving glaciers, Ann. Glaciol., 36, 173–178, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756403781816446, 2003.
Warren, C. R., Greene, D. R., and Glasser, N. F.: Glaciar Upsala, Patagonia: Rapid Calving Retreat in Fresh Water, Ann. Glaciol., 21, 311–316, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0260305500015998, 1995.
Weertman, J.: Stability of the Junction of an Ice Sheet and an Ice Shelf, J. Glaciol., 13, 3–11, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000023327, 1974.
Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Calov, R., and Brovkin, V.: Mid-Pleistocene transition in glacial cycles explained by declining CO2 and regolith removal, Sci. Adv., 5, eaav7337, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav7337, 2019.
Short summary
During Late Pleistocene glacial cycles, the Eurasian and North American ice sheets grew and melted, resulting in over 100 m of sea-level change. Studying the melting of past ice sheets can improve our understanding of how ice sheets might respond in the future. In this study, we find that melting increases due to proglacial lakes forming at the margins of the ice sheets, primarily due to the reduced basal friction of floating ice. Furthermore, bedrock uplift rates can strongly influence melting.
During Late Pleistocene glacial cycles, the Eurasian and North American ice sheets grew and...
