Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1081-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1081-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Jun 2023
Research article |
| 01 Jun 2023
| 01 Jun 2023
Atmospheric methane since the last glacial maximum was driven by wetland sources
Thomas Kleinen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Sergey Gromov
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Hahn-Meitner-Weg 1, 55128 Mainz, Germany
Benedikt Steil
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Hahn-Meitner-Weg 1, 55128 Mainz, Germany
Victor Brovkin
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Related authors
Nils Weitzel, Heather Andres, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lukas Jonkers, Oliver Bothe, Elisa Ziegler, Thomas Kleinen, André Paul, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 20, 865–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ability of climate models to faithfully reproduce past warming episodes is a valuable test considering potentially large future warming. We develop a new method to compare simulations of the last deglaciation with temperature reconstructions. We find that reconstructions differ more between regions than simulations, potentially due to deficiencies in the simulation design, models, or reconstructions. Our work is a promising step towards benchmarking simulations of past climate transitions.
Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3081, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The terrestrial water cycle over the Sahara/Sahel is closed by implementing a new model of endorheic lakes into a climate model. A factor analysis of mid-Holocene simulations shows that dynamic lakes and dynamic vegetation individually cause a precipitation increase over northern Africa that is, in the sum, larger than the precipitation increase caused by interacting lakes and vegetation dynamics. Thus, the lake-vegetation interaction causes a relative drying response over the entire Sahel.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Mueller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2873, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in Northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions and up-scaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions and up-scaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Zoé Rehder, Thomas Kleinen, Lars Kutzbach, Victor Stepanenko, Moritz Langer, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 2837–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use a new model to investigate how methane emissions from Arctic ponds change with warming. We find that emissions increase substantially. Under annual temperatures 5 °C above present temperatures, pond methane emissions are more than 3 times higher than now. Most of this increase is caused by an increase in plant productivity as plants provide the substrate microbes used to produce methane. We conclude that vegetation changes need to be included in predictions of pond methane emissions.
Mateo Duque-Villegas, Martin Claussen, Victor Brovkin, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1897–1914, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1897-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we quantify contributions of the Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ice sheets to the strength of Saharan greening during late Quaternary African humid periods (AHPs). Orbital forcing is found as the dominant factor, having a critical threshold and accounting for most of the changes in the vegetation response. However, results suggest that GHGs may influence the orbital threshold and thus may play a pivotal role for future AHPs.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1035–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Palaeoenvironmental records only provide a fragmentary picture of the lake and wetland extent in North Africa during the mid-Holocene. Therefore, we investigate the possible range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes caused by an estimated small and maximum lake extent and a maximum wetland extent. Results show a particularly strong monsoon precipitation response to lakes and wetlands over the Western Sahara and an increased monsoon precipitation when replacing lakes with vegetated wetlands.
Philipp de Vrese, Tobias Stacke, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 15, 1097–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
With large amounts of carbon stored in frozen soils and a highly energy-limited vegetation the Arctic is very sensitive to changes in climate. Here our simulations with the land surface model JSBACH reveal a number of offsetting factors moderating the Arctic's net response to global warming. More importantly we find that the effects of climate change may not be fully reversible on decadal timescales, leading to substantially different CH4 emissions depending on whether the Arctic warms or cools.
Marielle Saunois, Ann R. Stavert, Ben Poulter, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Peter A. Raymond, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Sander Houweling, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Ciais, Vivek K. Arora, David Bastviken, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Kimberly M. Carlson, Mark Carrol, Simona Castaldi, Naveen Chandra, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick M. Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles L. Curry, Giuseppe Etiope, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gustaf Hugelius, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Katherine M. Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, Goulven G. Laruelle, Licheng Liu, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe McNorton, Paul A. Miller, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Vaishali Naik, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Simon O'Doherty, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, Pierre Regnier, William J. Riley, Judith A. Rosentreter, Arjo Segers, Isobel J. Simpson, Hao Shi, Steven J. Smith, L. Paul Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Francesco N. Tubiello, Aki Tsuruta, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas S. Weber, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray F. Weiss, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Yi Yin, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Zhen Zhang, Yuanhong Zhao, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. We have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. This is the second version of the review dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down and bottom-up estimates.
Thomas Kleinen, Uwe Mikolajewicz, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 16, 575–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-575-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-575-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the changes in natural methane emissions between the Last Glacial Maximum and preindustrial periods with a methane-enabled version of MPI-ESM. We consider all natural sources of methane except for emissions from wild animals and geological sources. Changes are dominated by changes in tropical wetland emissions, high-latitude wetlands play a secondary role, and all other natural sources are of minor importance. We explain the changes in ice core methane by methane emissions only.
Georgii A. Alexandrov, Victor A. Brovkin, Thomas Kleinen, and Zicheng Yu
Biogeosciences, 17, 47–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-47-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-47-2020, 2020
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Thomas Kleinen, Gustaf Hugelius, Christian Knoblauch, Christian Beer, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 14, 2011–2036, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2011-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2011-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Past cold ice age temperatures and the subsequent warming towards the Holocene had large consequences for soil organic carbon (SOC) stored in perennially frozen grounds. Using an Earth system model we show how the spread in areas affected by permafrost have changed under deglacial warming, along with changes in SOC accumulation. Our model simulations suggest phases of circum-Arctic permafrost SOC gain and losses, with a net increase in SOC between the last glacial maximum and the pre-industrial.
Karel Castro-Morales, Thomas Kleinen, Sonja Kaiser, Sönke Zaehle, Fanny Kittler, Min Jung Kwon, Christian Beer, and Mathias Göckede
Biogeosciences, 15, 2691–2722, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2691-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2691-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present year-round methane emissions from wetlands in Northeast Siberia that were simulated with a land surface model. Ground-based flux measurements from the same area were used for evaluation of the model results, finding a best agreement with the observations in the summertime emissions that take place in this region predominantly through plants. During winter, methane emissions through the snow contribute 4 % of the total annual methane budget, but these are still underestimated.
Maarit Raivonen, Sampo Smolander, Leif Backman, Jouni Susiluoto, Tuula Aalto, Tiina Markkanen, Jarmo Mäkelä, Janne Rinne, Olli Peltola, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, Marin Tomasic, Xuefei Li, Tuula Larmola, Sari Juutinen, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Martin Heimann, Sanna Sevanto, Thomas Kleinen, Victor Brovkin, and Timo Vesala
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4665–4691, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4665-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4665-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Wetlands are one of the most significant natural sources of the strong greenhouse gas methane. We developed a model that can be used within a larger wetland carbon model to simulate the methane emissions. In this study, we present the model and results of its testing. We found that the model works well with different settings and that the results depend primarily on the rate of input anoxic soil respiration and also on factors that affect the simulated oxygen concentrations in the wetland soil.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Sonja Kaiser, Mathias Göckede, Karel Castro-Morales, Christian Knoblauch, Altug Ekici, Thomas Kleinen, Sebastian Zubrzycki, Torsten Sachs, Christian Wille, and Christian Beer
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 333–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-333-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-333-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A new consistent, process-based methane module that is integrated with permafrost processes is presented. It was developed within a global land surface scheme and evaluated at a polygonal tundra site in Samoylov, Russia. The calculated methane emissions show fair agreement with field data and capture detailed differences between the explicitly modelled gas transport processes and in the gas dynamics under varying soil water and temperature conditions during seasons and on different microsites.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Thomas Kleinen, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Clim. Past, 12, 2145–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2145-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2145-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate trends in atmospheric CO2 during three recent interglacials – the Holocene, the Eemian and MIS 11 – using an earth system model of intermediate complexity. Our model experiments show a considerable improvement in the modelled CO2 trends for all three interglacials if peat accumulation and shallow water CaCO3 sedimentation are included, forcing the model only with orbital and sea level changes. The Holocene CO2 trend requires anthropogenic emissions of CO2 only after 3 ka BP.
Fabio Cresto Aleina, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Tim Brücher, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 915–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-915-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-915-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the hotspot parameterization, a novel approach to upscaling methane emissions in a boreal peatland from the micro-topographic scale to the landscape scale. We based this new parameterization on the analysis of water table patterns generated by the Hummock–Hollow (HH) model. We show how the hotspot parameterization successfully upscales the micro-topographic controls on methane emissions for both present-day conditions and for the next century under three different scenarios.
F. Cresto Aleina, B. R. K. Runkle, T. Kleinen, L. Kutzbach, J. Schneider, and V. Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 12, 5689–5704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5689-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5689-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a process-based model for peatland micro-topography and hydrology, the Hummock-Hollow (HH) model, which explicitly represents small-scale surface elevation changes. By coupling the HH model with a model for soil methane processes, we are able to model the effects of micro-topography on hydrology and methane emissions in a typical boreal peatland. We also identify potential biases that models without a micro-topographic representation can introduce in large-scale models.
T. J. Bohn, J. R. Melton, A. Ito, T. Kleinen, R. Spahni, B. D. Stocker, B. Zhang, X. Zhu, R. Schroeder, M. V. Glagolev, S. Maksyutov, V. Brovkin, G. Chen, S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, A. Gallego-Sala, K. C. McDonald, M.A. Rawlins, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, Q. Zhuang, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 12, 3321–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated 21 forward models and 5 inversions over western Siberia in terms of CH4 emissions and simulated wetland areas and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. In addition to assembling a definitive collection of methane emissions estimates for the region, we were able to identify the types of wetland maps and model features necessary for accurate simulations of high-latitude wetlands.
R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 617–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
J. R. Melton, R. Wania, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, D. J. Beerling, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, P. O. Hopcroft, D. P. Lettenmaier, W. J. Riley, J. S. Singarayer, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, S. Zürcher, V. Brovkin, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 10, 753–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013
Nils Weitzel, Heather Andres, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lukas Jonkers, Oliver Bothe, Elisa Ziegler, Thomas Kleinen, André Paul, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 20, 865–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ability of climate models to faithfully reproduce past warming episodes is a valuable test considering potentially large future warming. We develop a new method to compare simulations of the last deglaciation with temperature reconstructions. We find that reconstructions differ more between regions than simulations, potentially due to deficiencies in the simulation design, models, or reconstructions. Our work is a promising step towards benchmarking simulations of past climate transitions.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernadello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-488, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-488, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach with Earth System Models to provide simulations in which all ESMs converge at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the CMIP scenarios. This new type of target-based emission-driven simulations offers a more coherent assessment across ESMs for studying both the carbon cycle and impacts under climate stabilization.
Colin Gareth Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben Booth, Peter Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene Hewitt, Hazel Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm Roberts, Benjamin Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Markus G. Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Froelicher, Neven Fuckar, Matthew Gidden, Helge Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, Jose Manuel Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason A. Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Melia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-453, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming ~6 years (i.e. to 2030). Advances in these areas will increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, as well as deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as the 7th IPCC Assessment Report and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake under the Paris Climate Agreement.
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global carbon budgets simulated by multiple Earth system models, using several types of simulations. We successfully identified problems of global carbon budget in each model. We also found urgent issues that should be solved in the latest generation of models, land use change CO2 emissions.
Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3081, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The terrestrial water cycle over the Sahara/Sahel is closed by implementing a new model of endorheic lakes into a climate model. A factor analysis of mid-Holocene simulations shows that dynamic lakes and dynamic vegetation individually cause a precipitation increase over northern Africa that is, in the sum, larger than the precipitation increase caused by interacting lakes and vegetation dynamics. Thus, the lake-vegetation interaction causes a relative drying response over the entire Sahel.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Mueller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2873, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in Northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions and up-scaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions and up-scaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Anna Martin, Veronika Gayler, Benedikt Steil, Klaus Klingmüller, Patrick Jöckel, Holger Tost, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3051, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3051, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study evaluates the land surface and vegetation model JSBACHv4 as a replacement for the simplified submodel SURFACE in EMAC. JSBACH mitigates earlier problems of soil dryness, which are critical for vegetation modelling. When analysed with different data sets, the coupled model shows strong correlations for key variables such as land surface temperature, surface albedo and radiation flux. The versatility of the model is significantly increased, while the overall performance is not degraded.
István Dunkl, Nicole Lovenduski, Alessio Collalti, Vivek K. Arora, Tatiana Ilyina, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 3523–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Despite differences in the reproduction of gross primary productivity (GPP) by Earth system models (ESMs), ESMs have similar predictability of the global carbon cycle. We found that, although GPP variability originates from different regions and is driven by different climatic variables across the ESMs, the ESMs rely on the same mechanisms to predict their own GPP. This shows that the predictability of the carbon cycle is limited by our understanding of variability rather than predictability.
Zoé Rehder, Thomas Kleinen, Lars Kutzbach, Victor Stepanenko, Moritz Langer, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 2837–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use a new model to investigate how methane emissions from Arctic ponds change with warming. We find that emissions increase substantially. Under annual temperatures 5 °C above present temperatures, pond methane emissions are more than 3 times higher than now. Most of this increase is caused by an increase in plant productivity as plants provide the substrate microbes used to produce methane. We conclude that vegetation changes need to be included in predictions of pond methane emissions.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Lester Kwiatkowski, Manon Berger, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1162, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coral reefs are crucial for biodiversity, but they also play a role in the carbon cycle on long time scales of a few thousand years. To better simulate the future and past evolution of coral reefs and their effect on the global carbon cycle, hence on atmospheric CO2 concentration, it is necessary to include coral reefs within a climate model. Here we describe the inclusion of coral reef carbonate production in a carbon-climate model and its validation in comparison to existing modern data.
Matteo Willeit, Tatiana Ilyina, Bo Liu, Christoph Heinze, Mahé Perrette, Malte Heinemann, Daniela Dalmonech, Victor Brovkin, Guy Munhoven, Janine Börker, Jens Hartmann, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3501–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the carbon cycle component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. The model can be run with interactive atmospheric CO2 to investigate the feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle on temporal scales ranging from decades to > 100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate–carbon cycle changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the Earth system.
Philipp de Vrese, Goran Georgievski, Jesus Fidel Gonzalez Rouco, Dirk Notz, Tobias Stacke, Norman Julius Steinert, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2095–2118, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The current generation of Earth system models exhibits large inter-model differences in the simulated climate of the Arctic and subarctic zone. We used an adapted version of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) Earth System Model to show that differences in the representation of the soil hydrology in permafrost-affected regions could help explain a large part of this inter-model spread and have pronounced impacts on important elements of Earth systems as far to the south as the tropics.
Mateo Duque-Villegas, Martin Claussen, Victor Brovkin, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1897–1914, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1897-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we quantify contributions of the Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ice sheets to the strength of Saharan greening during late Quaternary African humid periods (AHPs). Orbital forcing is found as the dominant factor, having a critical threshold and accounting for most of the changes in the vegetation response. However, results suggest that GHGs may influence the orbital threshold and thus may play a pivotal role for future AHPs.
Zaneta T. Hamryszczak, Andrea Pozzer, Florian Obersteiner, Birger Bohn, Benedikt Steil, Jos Lelieveld, and Horst Fischer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9483–9497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9483-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9483-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrogen peroxide plays a pivotal role in the chemistry of the atmosphere. Together with organic hydroperoxides, it forms a reservoir for peroxy radicals, which are known to be the key contributors to the self-cleaning processes of the atmosphere. Hydroperoxides were measured over Europe during the BLUESKY campaign in May–June 2020. The paper gives an overview of the distribution of the species in the troposphere and investigates the impact of wet scavenging and deposition on the budget of H2O2.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1035–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Palaeoenvironmental records only provide a fragmentary picture of the lake and wetland extent in North Africa during the mid-Holocene. Therefore, we investigate the possible range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes caused by an estimated small and maximum lake extent and a maximum wetland extent. Results show a particularly strong monsoon precipitation response to lakes and wetlands over the Western Sahara and an increased monsoon precipitation when replacing lakes with vegetated wetlands.
Andrea Pozzer, Simon F. Reifenberg, Vinod Kumar, Bruno Franco, Matthias Kohl, Domenico Taraborrelli, Sergey Gromov, Sebastian Ehrhart, Patrick Jöckel, Rolf Sander, Veronica Fall, Simon Rosanka, Vlassis Karydis, Dimitris Akritidis, Tamara Emmerichs, Monica Crippa, Diego Guizzardi, Johannes W. Kaiser, Lieven Clarisse, Astrid Kiendler-Scharr, Holger Tost, and Alexandra Tsimpidi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2673–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2673-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2673-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A newly developed setup of the chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy for Atmospheric Chemistry) is evaluated here. A comprehensive organic degradation mechanism is used and coupled with a volatility base model.
The results show that the model reproduces most of the tracers and aerosols satisfactorily but shows discrepancies for oxygenated organic gases. It is also shown that this model configuration can be used for further research in atmospheric chemistry.
Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Frederieke Miesner, Paul P. Overduin, Matteo Puglini, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 16, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Thawing permafrost releases carbon to the atmosphere, enhancing global warming. Part of the permafrost soils have been flooded by rising sea levels since the last ice age, becoming subsea permafrost (SSPF). The SSPF is less studied than the part on land. In this study we use a global model to obtain rates of thawing of SSPF under different future climate scenarios until the year 3000. After the year 2100 the scenarios strongly diverge, closely connected to the eventual disappearance of sea ice.
István Dunkl, Aaron Spring, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1413–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The variability in atmospheric CO2 is largely controlled by terrestrial carbon fluxes. These land–atmosphere fluxes are predictable for around 2 years, but the mechanisms providing the predictability are not well understood. By decomposing the predictability of carbon fluxes into individual contributors we were able to explain the spatial and seasonal patterns and the interannual variability of CO2 flux predictability.
Aaron Spring, István Dunkl, Hongmei Li, Victor Brovkin, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1139–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical carbon cycle prediction models usually do not start from observed carbon states due to sparse observations. Instead, only physical climate is reconstructed, assuming that the carbon cycle follows indirectly. Here, we test in an idealized framework how well this indirect and direct reconstruction with perfect observations works. We find that indirect reconstruction works quite well and that improvements from the direct method are limited, strengthening the current indirect use.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Vinod Kumar, Julia Remmers, Steffen Beirle, Joachim Fallmann, Astrid Kerkweg, Jos Lelieveld, Mariano Mertens, Andrea Pozzer, Benedikt Steil, Marc Barra, Holger Tost, and Thomas Wagner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5241–5269, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5241-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5241-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present high-resolution regional atmospheric chemistry model simulations focused around Germany. We highlight the importance of spatial resolution of the model itself as well as the input emissions inventory and short-scale temporal variability of emissions for simulations. We propose a consistent approach for evaluating the simulated vertical distribution of NO2 using MAX-DOAS measurements while also considering its spatial sensitivity volume and change in sensitivity within this volume.
Philipp de Vrese, Tobias Stacke, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 15, 1097–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
With large amounts of carbon stored in frozen soils and a highly energy-limited vegetation the Arctic is very sensitive to changes in climate. Here our simulations with the land surface model JSBACH reveal a number of offsetting factors moderating the Arctic's net response to global warming. More importantly we find that the effects of climate change may not be fully reversible on decadal timescales, leading to substantially different CH4 emissions depending on whether the Arctic warms or cools.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Domenico Taraborrelli, David Cabrera-Perez, Sara Bacer, Sergey Gromov, Jos Lelieveld, Rolf Sander, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2615–2636, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric pollutants from anthropogenic activities and biomass burning are usually regarded as ozone precursors. Monocyclic aromatics are no exception. Calculations with a comprehensive atmospheric model are consistent with this view but only for air masses close to pollution source regions. However, the same model predicts that aromatics, when transported to remote areas, may effectively destroy ozone. This loss of tropospheric ozone rivals the one attributed to bromine.
Bianca Lauster, Steffen Dörner, Steffen Beirle, Sebastian Donner, Sergey Gromov, Katharina Uhlmannsiek, and Thomas Wagner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 769–783, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-769-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-769-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In urban areas, road traffic is a dominant source of nitrogen oxides. In this study, two multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) instruments on opposite sides of a motorway were used to measure the nitrogen dioxide absorption near Mainz, Germany. Total nitrogen oxide emissions are estimated for the occurring traffic flux. We show that the measured emissions systematically exceed the maximum expected emissions calculated from the European emission standards.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Johannes Meyerholt, Sönke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Victor Brovkin, Yuanchao Fan, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, Hanna Lee, Daniele Peano, Benjamin Smith, David Wårlind, and Andy J. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, 2020
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Marielle Saunois, Ann R. Stavert, Ben Poulter, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Peter A. Raymond, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Sander Houweling, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Ciais, Vivek K. Arora, David Bastviken, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Kimberly M. Carlson, Mark Carrol, Simona Castaldi, Naveen Chandra, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick M. Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles L. Curry, Giuseppe Etiope, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gustaf Hugelius, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Katherine M. Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, Goulven G. Laruelle, Licheng Liu, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe McNorton, Paul A. Miller, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Vaishali Naik, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Simon O'Doherty, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, Pierre Regnier, William J. Riley, Judith A. Rosentreter, Arjo Segers, Isobel J. Simpson, Hao Shi, Steven J. Smith, L. Paul Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Francesco N. Tubiello, Aki Tsuruta, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas S. Weber, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray F. Weiss, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Yi Yin, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Zhen Zhang, Yuanhong Zhao, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. We have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. This is the second version of the review dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down and bottom-up estimates.
Matteo Puglini, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Regnier, and Sandra Arndt
Biogeosciences, 17, 3247–3275, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3247-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3247-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A reaction-transport model to assess the potential non-turbulent methane flux from the East Siberian Arctic sediments to water columns is applied here. We show that anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) is an efficient filter except for high values of sedimentation rate and advective flow, which enable considerable non-turbulent steady-state methane fluxes. Significant transient methane fluxes can also occur during the building-up phase of the AOM-performing biomass microbial community.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Thomas Kleinen, Uwe Mikolajewicz, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 16, 575–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-575-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-575-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the changes in natural methane emissions between the Last Glacial Maximum and preindustrial periods with a methane-enabled version of MPI-ESM. We consider all natural sources of methane except for emissions from wild animals and geological sources. Changes are dominated by changes in tropical wetland emissions, high-latitude wetlands play a secondary role, and all other natural sources are of minor importance. We explain the changes in ice core methane by methane emissions only.
Georgii A. Alexandrov, Victor A. Brovkin, Thomas Kleinen, and Zicheng Yu
Biogeosciences, 17, 47–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-47-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-47-2020, 2020
Jianzhong Ma, Christoph Brühl, Qianshan He, Benedikt Steil, Vlassis A. Karydis, Klaus Klingmüller, Holger Tost, Bin Chen, Yufang Jin, Ningwei Liu, Xiangde Xu, Peng Yan, Xiuji Zhou, Kamal Abdelrahman, Andrea Pozzer, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11587–11612, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11587-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11587-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We find a pronounced maximum in aerosol extinction in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Tibetan Plateau during the Asian summer monsoon, caused mainly by mineral dust emitted from the northern Tibetan Plateau and slope area, lofted to and accumulating within the anticyclonic circulation. Mineral dust, water-soluble compounds, such as nitrate and sulfate, and associated liquid water dominate aerosol extinction around the tropopause within the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 501–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The concept of
emergent constraintsis a key method to reduce uncertainty in multi-model climate projections using historical simulations and observations. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of the applicability of the method and uncover possible limitations. Key limitations are a lack of comparability (temporal, spatial, and conceptual) between models and observations and the disagreement between models on system dynamics throughout different levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Victor Brovkin, Stephan Lorenz, Thomas Raddatz, Tatiana Ilyina, Irene Stemmler, Matthew Toohey, and Martin Claussen
Biogeosciences, 16, 2543–2555, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Mechanisms of atmospheric CO2 growth by 20 ppm from 6000 BCE to the pre-industrial period are still uncertain. We apply the Earth system model MPI-ESM-LR for two transient simulations of the climate–carbon cycle. An additional process, e.g. carbonate accumulation on shelves, is required for consistency with ice-core CO2 data. Our simulations support the hypothesis that the ocean was a source of CO2 until the late Holocene when anthropogenic CO2 sources started to affect atmospheric CO2.
Rolf Sander, Andreas Baumgaertner, David Cabrera-Perez, Franziska Frank, Sergey Gromov, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Hartwig Harder, Vincent Huijnen, Patrick Jöckel, Vlassis A. Karydis, Kyle E. Niemeyer, Andrea Pozzer, Hella Riede, Martin G. Schultz, Domenico Taraborrelli, and Sebastian Tauer
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1365–1385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1365-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1365-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present the atmospheric chemistry box model CAABA/MECCA which
now includes a number of new features: skeletal mechanism
reduction, the MOM chemical mechanism for volatile organic
compounds, an option to include reactions from the Master
Chemical Mechanism (MCM) and other chemical mechanisms, updated
isotope tagging, improved and new photolysis modules, and the new
feature of coexisting multiple chemistry mechanisms.
CAABA/MECCA is a community model published under the GPL.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 15, 335–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-335-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-335-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A simple but powerful method for the biomisation of plant functional type distributions is introduced and tested for six different dynamic global vegetation models based on pre-industrial and palaeo-simulations. The method facilitates the direct comparison between vegetation distributions simulated by different Earth system models and between model results and the pollen-based biome reconstructions. It is therefore a powerful tool for the evaluation of Earth system models.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Thomas Kleinen, Gustaf Hugelius, Christian Knoblauch, Christian Beer, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 14, 2011–2036, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2011-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2011-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Past cold ice age temperatures and the subsequent warming towards the Holocene had large consequences for soil organic carbon (SOC) stored in perennially frozen grounds. Using an Earth system model we show how the spread in areas affected by permafrost have changed under deglacial warming, along with changes in SOC accumulation. Our model simulations suggest phases of circum-Arctic permafrost SOC gain and losses, with a net increase in SOC between the last glacial maximum and the pre-industrial.
Swen Metzger, Mohamed Abdelkader, Benedikt Steil, and Klaus Klingmüller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16747–16774, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16747-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16747-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper discusses the importance of aerosol water for aerosol optical depth calculations using a long-term evaluation of the global chemistry climate and Earth system model EMAC through a comparison of EQSAM4clim and ISORROPIA II with observations at climate timescales. Sensitivity studies with different levels of chemical aging and associated water uptake demonstrate the importance of aerosol water for climate modeling studies.
Thomas Riddick, Victor Brovkin, Stefan Hagemann, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4291–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4291-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4291-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
During the Last Glacial Maximum, many rivers were blocked by the presence of large ice sheets and thus found new routes to the sea. This resulted in changes in the pattern of freshwater discharge into the oceans and thus would have significantly affected ocean circulation. Also, rivers found routes across the vast exposed continental shelves to the lower coastlines of that time. We propose a model for such changes in river routing suitable for use in wider models of the last glacial cycle.
Franziska Frank, Patrick Jöckel, Sergey Gromov, and Martin Dameris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9955–9973, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9955-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9955-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
It is frequently assumed that one methane molecule produces two water molecules. Applying various modeling concepts, we find that the yield of water from methane is vertically not constantly 2. In the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere, transport of intermediate H2 molecules even led to a yield greater than 2. We conclude that for a realistic chemical source of stratospheric water vapor, one must also take other sources (H2), intermediates and the chemical removal of water into account.
Sergey Gromov, Carl A. M. Brenninkmeijer, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9831–9843, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9831-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9831-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Using the observational data on 13C (CO) and 13C (CH4) from the extra-tropical Southern Hemisphere (ETSH) and EMAC model we (1) provide an independent, observation-based evaluation of Cl atom concentration variations in the ETSH throughout 1994–2000, (2) show that the role of tropospheric Cl as a sink of CH4 is seriously overestimated in the literature, (3) demonstrate that the 13C/12C ratio of CO is a sensitive indicator for the isotopic composition of reacted CH4 and therefore for its sources.
Sandy P. Harrison, Patrick J. Bartlein, Victor Brovkin, Sander Houweling, Silvia Kloster, and I. Colin Prentice
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 663–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Temperature affects fire occurrence and severity. Warming will increase fire-related carbon emissions and thus atmospheric CO2. The size of this feedback is not known. We use charcoal records to estimate pre-industrial fire emissions and a simple land–biosphere model to quantify the feedback. We infer a feedback strength of 5.6 3.2 ppm CO2 per degree of warming and a gain of 0.09 ± 0.05 for a climate sensitivity of 2.8 K. Thus, fire feedback is a large part of the climate–carbon-cycle feedback.
Karel Castro-Morales, Thomas Kleinen, Sonja Kaiser, Sönke Zaehle, Fanny Kittler, Min Jung Kwon, Christian Beer, and Mathias Göckede
Biogeosciences, 15, 2691–2722, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2691-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2691-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present year-round methane emissions from wetlands in Northeast Siberia that were simulated with a land surface model. Ground-based flux measurements from the same area were used for evaluation of the model results, finding a best agreement with the observations in the summertime emissions that take place in this region predominantly through plants. During winter, methane emissions through the snow contribute 4 % of the total annual methane budget, but these are still underestimated.
Maarit Raivonen, Sampo Smolander, Leif Backman, Jouni Susiluoto, Tuula Aalto, Tiina Markkanen, Jarmo Mäkelä, Janne Rinne, Olli Peltola, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, Marin Tomasic, Xuefei Li, Tuula Larmola, Sari Juutinen, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Martin Heimann, Sanna Sevanto, Thomas Kleinen, Victor Brovkin, and Timo Vesala
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4665–4691, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4665-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4665-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Wetlands are one of the most significant natural sources of the strong greenhouse gas methane. We developed a model that can be used within a larger wetland carbon model to simulate the methane emissions. In this study, we present the model and results of its testing. We found that the model works well with different settings and that the results depend primarily on the rate of input anoxic soil respiration and also on factors that affect the simulated oxygen concentrations in the wetland soil.
Andrey Ganopolski and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 13, 1695–1716, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Ice cores reveal that atmospheric CO2 concentration varied synchronously with the global ice volume. Explaining the mechanism of glacial–interglacial variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the link between CO2 and ice sheets evolution still remains a challenge. Here using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity we performed for the first time simulations of co-evolution of climate, ice sheets and carbon cycle using the astronomical forcing as the only external forcing.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Bettina Derstroff, Imke Hüser, Efstratios Bourtsoukidis, John N. Crowley, Horst Fischer, Sergey Gromov, Hartwig Harder, Ruud H. H. Janssen, Jürgen Kesselmeier, Jos Lelieveld, Chinmay Mallik, Monica Martinez, Anna Novelli, Uwe Parchatka, Gavin J. Phillips, Rolf Sander, Carina Sauvage, Jan Schuladen, Christof Stönner, Laura Tomsche, and Jonathan Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9547–9566, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9547-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9547-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of the study was to examine aged air masses being transported from the European continent towards Cyprus. Longer-lived oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) such as methanol were mainly impacted by long-distance transport and showed higher values in air masses from eastern Europe than in a flow regime from the west. The impact of the transport through the marine boundary layer as well as the influence of the residual layer/free troposphere on OVOCs were studied.
Sergey Gromov, Carl A. M. Brenninkmeijer, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8525–8552, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8525-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8525-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We revisit the proxies/uncertainties for the 13C/12C ratios of emissions of reactive C into the atmosphere. Our main findings are (i) a factor of 2 less uncertain estimate of tropospheric CO surface sources δ13C, (ii) a confirmed disagreement between the bottom-up and top-down 13CO-inclusive emission estimates, and (iii) a novel estimate of the δ13C signatures of a range of NMHCs/VOCs to be used in modelling studies. Results are based on the EMAC model emission set-up evaluated for 2000.
Daniel S. Goll, Alexander J. Winkler, Thomas Raddatz, Ning Dong, Ian Colin Prentice, Philippe Ciais, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2009–2030, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The response of soil organic carbon decomposition to warming and the interactions between nitrogen and carbon cycling affect the feedbacks between the land carbon cycle and the climate. In the model JSBACH carbon–nitrogen interactions have only a small effect on the feedbacks, whereas modifications of soil organic carbon decomposition have a large effect. The carbon cycle in the improved model is more resilient to climatic changes than in previous version of the model.
Mohamed Abdelkader, Swen Metzger, Benedikt Steil, Klaus Klingmüller, Holger Tost, Andrea Pozzer, Georgiy Stenchikov, Leonard Barrie, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3799–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3799-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3799-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a modeling study on the impacts of the key processes (dust emission flux, convection and dust aging parameterizations) that control the transatlantic dust transport using an advanced version of the EMAC atmospheric chemistry general circulation model. We define the
direct effect of dust agingas an increase in the AOD as a result of hygroscopic growth. We define the
indirect effectas a reduction in the dust AOD due to the higher removal of the aged dust particles.
Beniamino Abis and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 14, 511–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-511-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-511-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We study the link between the boreal tree-cover fraction distribution and eight globally observed environmental factors. We find that they exert a strong control over the tree-cover distribution, generally uniquely determining its state. Furthermore, we show the location of areas with potentially alternative tree-cover states under the same environmental conditions. These areas represent transition zones with reduced resilience, where the forest can shift between different vegetation states.
Sonja Kaiser, Mathias Göckede, Karel Castro-Morales, Christian Knoblauch, Altug Ekici, Thomas Kleinen, Sebastian Zubrzycki, Torsten Sachs, Christian Wille, and Christian Beer
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 333–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-333-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-333-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A new consistent, process-based methane module that is integrated with permafrost processes is presented. It was developed within a global land surface scheme and evaluated at a polygonal tundra site in Samoylov, Russia. The calculated methane emissions show fair agreement with field data and capture detailed differences between the explicitly modelled gas transport processes and in the gas dynamics under varying soil water and temperature conditions during seasons and on different microsites.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Thomas Kleinen, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Clim. Past, 12, 2145–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2145-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2145-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate trends in atmospheric CO2 during three recent interglacials – the Holocene, the Eemian and MIS 11 – using an earth system model of intermediate complexity. Our model experiments show a considerable improvement in the modelled CO2 trends for all three interglacials if peat accumulation and shallow water CaCO3 sedimentation are included, forcing the model only with orbital and sea level changes. The Holocene CO2 trend requires anthropogenic emissions of CO2 only after 3 ka BP.
Sylvia S. Nyawira, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Axel Don, Victor Brovkin, and Julia Pongratz
Biogeosciences, 13, 5661–5675, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce an approach applicable to dynamic global vegetation models for evaluating simulated soil carbon changes from land-use changes against meta-analyses. The approach makes use of the large spatial coverage of the observations, and accounts for different ages of the sampled land-use transitions. The evaluation offers an opportunity for identifying causes of model–data discrepancies. Applied to the model JSBACH, we find that introducing crop harvest substantially improves the results.
Jos Lelieveld, Sergey Gromov, Andrea Pozzer, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12477–12493, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12477-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12477-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The self-cleaning capacity of the atmosphere is controlled by hydroxyl (OH) radicals in the troposphere. There are primary and secondary OH sources, the former through the photodissociation of ozone, the latter through OH recycling. We used a global model, showing that secondary sources are larger than assumed previously, which buffers OH. Complementary OH formation mechanisms in pristine and polluted environments, connected through transport of ozone, can maintain stable global OH levels.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Jonathan Barichivich, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Thomas Gasser, Shushi Peng, Julia Pongratz, Nicolas Viovy, and Cathy M. Trudinger
Biogeosciences, 13, 4877–4897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The ice-core record shows a stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 in the 1940s, despite continued emissions from fossil fuel burning and land-use change (LUC). We use up-to-date reconstructions of the CO2 sources and sinks over the 20th century to evaluate whether these capture the CO2 plateau and to test the previously proposed hypothesis. Both strong terrestrial sink, possibly due to LUC not fully accounted for in the records, and enhanced oceanic uptake are necessary to explain this stall.
David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Almut Arneth, Victor Brovkin, Kate V. Calvin, Andrew D. Jones, Chris D. Jones, Peter J. Lawrence, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2973–2998, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The goal of LUMIP is to take the next steps in land-use change science, and enable, coordinate, and ultimately address the most important land-use science questions in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date.
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
Ulrike Port, Martin Claussen, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 535–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-535-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-535-2016, 2016
Simone Dietmüller, Patrick Jöckel, Holger Tost, Markus Kunze, Catrin Gellhorn, Sabine Brinkop, Christine Frömming, Michael Ponater, Benedikt Steil, Axel Lauer, and Johannes Hendricks
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2209–2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2209-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2209-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Four new radiation related submodels (RAD, AEROPT, CLOUDOPT, and ORBIT) are available within the MESSy framework now. They are largely based on the original radiation scheme of ECHAM5. RAD simulates radiative transfer, AEROPT calculates aerosol optical properties, CLOUDOPT calculates cloud optical properties, and ORBIT is responsible for Earth orbit calculations. Multiple diagnostic calls of the radiation routine are possible, so radiative forcing can be calculated during the model simulation.
Swen Metzger, Benedikt Steil, Mohamed Abdelkader, Klaus Klingmüller, Li Xu, Joyce E. Penner, Christos Fountoukis, Athanasios Nenes, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7213–7237, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7213-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7213-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce an unique single parameter framework to efficiently parameterize the aerosol water uptake for mixtures of semi-volatile and non-volatile compounds, being entirely based on the single solute specific coefficient introduced in Metzger et al. (2012).
Fabio Cresto Aleina, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Tim Brücher, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 915–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-915-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-915-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the hotspot parameterization, a novel approach to upscaling methane emissions in a boreal peatland from the micro-topographic scale to the landscape scale. We based this new parameterization on the analysis of water table patterns generated by the Hummock–Hollow (HH) model. We show how the hotspot parameterization successfully upscales the micro-topographic controls on methane emissions for both present-day conditions and for the next century under three different scenarios.
F. Cresto Aleina, B. R. K. Runkle, T. Kleinen, L. Kutzbach, J. Schneider, and V. Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 12, 5689–5704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5689-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5689-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a process-based model for peatland micro-topography and hydrology, the Hummock-Hollow (HH) model, which explicitly represents small-scale surface elevation changes. By coupling the HH model with a model for soil methane processes, we are able to model the effects of micro-topography on hydrology and methane emissions in a typical boreal peatland. We also identify potential biases that models without a micro-topographic representation can introduce in large-scale models.
C. D. Koven, J. Q. Chambers, K. Georgiou, R. Knox, R. Negron-Juarez, W. J. Riley, V. K. Arora, V. Brovkin, P. Friedlingstein, and C. D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 12, 5211–5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Terrestrial carbon feedbacks are a large uncertainty in climate change. We separate modeled feedback responses into those governed by changed carbon inputs (productivity) and changed outputs (turnover). The disaggregated responses show that both are important in controlling inter-model uncertainty. Interactions between productivity and turnover are also important, and research must focus on these interactions for more accurate projections of carbon cycle feedbacks.
H. G. Ouwersloot, A. Pozzer, B. Steil, H. Tost, and J. Lelieveld
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2435–2445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2435-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2435-2015, 2015
T. J. Bohn, J. R. Melton, A. Ito, T. Kleinen, R. Spahni, B. D. Stocker, B. Zhang, X. Zhu, R. Schroeder, M. V. Glagolev, S. Maksyutov, V. Brovkin, G. Chen, S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, A. Gallego-Sala, K. C. McDonald, M.A. Rawlins, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, Q. Zhuang, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 12, 3321–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated 21 forward models and 5 inversions over western Siberia in terms of CH4 emissions and simulated wetland areas and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. In addition to assembling a definitive collection of methane emissions estimates for the region, we were able to identify the types of wetland maps and model features necessary for accurate simulations of high-latitude wetlands.
S. Kloster, T. Brücher, V. Brovkin, and S. Wilkenskjeld
Clim. Past, 11, 781–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-781-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-781-2015, 2015
U. Port, M. Claussen, and V. Brovkin
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-997-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-997-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
S. Gromov and C. A. M. Brenninkmeijer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 1901–1912, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1901-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1901-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present observational data on δ18O(O3) from the UT/LMS, the region to date not covered by the ozone isotope composition measurements. It is to bridge the gap between the tropospheric (mostly surface) and stratospheric measurement data.
We demonstrate an approach suitable for isotope mass-balance calculations (“Keeling plot”) in intricate cases, i.e. admixing of the (unknown) source in question to the reservoirs with (unknown) variable starting compositions.
K. Klingmüller, B. Steil, C. Brühl, H. Tost, and J. Lelieveld
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2503–2516, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2503-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2503-2014, 2014
D. Y. Chang, H. Tost, B. Steil, and J. Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-21975-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-21975-2014, 2014
Preprint withdrawn
F. S. E. Vamborg, V. Brovkin, and M. Claussen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 89–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-89-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-89-2014, 2014
Y. F. Elshorbany, P. J. Crutzen, B. Steil, A. Pozzer, H. Tost, and J. Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1167–1184, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1167-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1167-2014, 2014
P. Dass, C. Müller, V. Brovkin, and W. Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 409–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-409-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-409-2013, 2013
L. M. Verheijen, V. Brovkin, R. Aerts, G. Bönisch, J. H. C. Cornelissen, J. Kattge, P. B. Reich, I. J. Wright, and P. M. van Bodegom
Biogeosciences, 10, 5497–5515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5497-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5497-2013, 2013
M. Claussen, K. Selent, V. Brovkin, T. Raddatz, and V. Gayler
Biogeosciences, 10, 3593–3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3593-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3593-2013, 2013
R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 617–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
J. R. Melton, R. Wania, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, D. J. Beerling, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, P. O. Hopcroft, D. P. Lettenmaier, W. J. Riley, J. S. Singarayer, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, S. Zürcher, V. Brovkin, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 10, 753–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013
J. Segschneider, A. Beitsch, C. Timmreck, V. Brovkin, T. Ilyina, J. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, K. D. Six, and D. Zanchettin
Biogeosciences, 10, 669–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Ice Cores | Timescale: Pleistocene
Orbital insolation variations, intrinsic climate variability, and Quaternary glaciations
Deglacial evolution of regional Antarctic climate and Southern Ocean conditions in transient climate simulations
Impact of meltwater on high-latitude early Last Interglacial climate
Greenland during the last interglacial: the relative importance of insolation and oceanic changes
Sensitivity simulations with direct shortwave radiative forcing by aeolian dust during glacial cycles
Coupled regional climate–ice-sheet simulation shows limited Greenland ice loss during the Eemian
Importance of precipitation seasonality for the interpretation of Eemian ice core isotope records from Greenland
Keno Riechers, Takahito Mitsui, Niklas Boers, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 18, 863–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Building upon Milancovic's theory of orbital forcing, this paper reviews the interplay between intrinsic variability and external forcing in the emergence of glacial interglacial cycles. It provides the reader with historical background information and with basic theoretical concepts used in recent paleoclimate research. Moreover, it presents new results which confirm the reduced stability of glacial-cycle dynamics after the mid-Pleistocene transition.
Daniel P. Lowry, Nicholas R. Golledge, Laurie Menviel, and Nancy A. N. Bertler
Clim. Past, 15, 189–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-189-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Using two climate models, we seek to better understand changes in Antarctic climate and Southern Ocean conditions during the last deglaciation. We highlight the importance of sea ice and ice topography changes for Antarctic surface temperatures and snow accumulation as well as the sensitivity of Southern Ocean temperatures to meltwater fluxes. The results demonstrate that climate model simulations of the deglaciation could be greatly improved by considering ice–ocean interactions and feedbacks.
Emma J. Stone, Emilie Capron, Daniel J. Lunt, Antony J. Payne, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 12, 1919–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1919-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1919-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models forced only with greenhouse gas concentrations and orbital parameters representative of the early Last Interglacial are unable to reproduce the observed colder-than-present temperatures in the North Atlantic and the warmer-than-present temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere. Using a climate model forced also with a freshwater amount derived from data representing melting from the remnant Northern Hemisphere ice sheets accounts for this response via the bipolar seesaw mechanism.
Rasmus A. Pedersen, Peter L. Langen, and Bo M. Vinther
Clim. Past, 12, 1907–1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1907-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1907-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Using climate model experiments, we investigate the causes of the Eemian (125 000 years ago) warming in Greenland. Sea ice loss and sea surface warming prolong the impact of the summer insolation increase, causing warming throughout the year. We find potential for ice sheet mass loss in the north and southwestern parts of Greenland. Our simulations indicate that the direct impact of the insolation, rather than the indirect effect of the warmer ocean, is the dominant cause of ice sheet melt.
E. Bauer and A. Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 10, 1333–1348, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1333-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1333-2014, 2014
M. M. Helsen, W. J. van de Berg, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, and J. Oerlemans
Clim. Past, 9, 1773–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, 2013
W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, E. van Meijgaard, and F. Kaspar
Clim. Past, 9, 1589–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1589-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1589-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Amante, C. and Eakins, B. W.: ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis, NOAA Technical Memorandum NESDIS NGDC-24, National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA, https://doi.org/10.7289/V5C8276M, 2009. a
Beck, J., Bock, M., Schmitt, J., Seth, B., Blunier, T., and Fischer, H.:
Bipolar carbon and hydrogen isotope constraints on the Holocene methane
budget, Biogeosciences, 15, 7155–7175, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7155-2018, 2018.
a, b
Berger, A. L.: Long-Term Variations of Daily Insolation and Quaternary Climatic Changes, J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 2362–2367,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035<2362:LTVODI>2.0.CO;2, 1978. a
Bock, M., Schmitt, J., Beck, J., Seth, B., Chappellaz, J., and Fischer, H.:
Glacial/interglacial wetland, biomass burning, and geologic methane emissions
constrained by dual stable isotopic CH4 ice core records, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, E5778–E5786, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1613883114, 2017. a, b, c, d
Bousquet, P., Ringeval, B., Pison, I., Dlugokencky, E. J., Brunke, E.-G.,
Carouge, C., Chevallier, F., Fortems-Cheiney, A., Frankenberg, C.,
Hauglustaine, D. A., Krummel, P. B., Langenfelds, R. L., Ramonet, M., Schmidt, M., Steele, L. P., Szopa, S., Yver, C., Viovy, N., and Ciais, P.:
Source attribution of the changes in atmospheric methane for 2006–2008,
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 3689–3700, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-3689-2011, 2011. a, b
Briggs, R. D., Pollard, D., and Tarasov, L.: A data-constrained large ensemble analysis of Antarctic evolution since the Eemian, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 103, 91–115, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.09.003, 2014. a
Buytaert, W.: Topmodel, CRAN [code],
http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/topmodel/index.html (last access: 21 December 2016), 2011. a
Chappellaz, J., Stowasser, C., Blunier, T., Baslev-Clausen, D., Brook, E. J.,
Dallmayr, R., Faïn, X., Lee, J. E., Mitchell, L. E., Pascual, O., Romanini, D., Rosen, J., and Schüpbach, S.: High-resolution glacial and
deglacial record of atmospheric methane by continuous-flow and laser
spectrometer analysis along the NEEM ice core, Clim. Past, 9, 2579–2593, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2579-2013, 2013. a, b
Clauss, M., Dittmann, M. T., Vendl, C., Hagen, K. B., Frei, S., Ortmann, S.,
Müller, D. W. H., Hammer, S., Munn, A. J., Schwarm, A., and Kreuzer, M.:
Review: Comparative methane production in mammalian herbivores, Animal, 14,
s113–s123, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1751731119003161, 2020. a, b
Crutzen, P. J., Aselmann, I., and Seiler, W.: Methane production by domestic
animals, wild ruminants, other herbivorous fauna, and humans, Tellus B, 38, 271–284, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v38i3-4.15135, 1986. a, b, c
Dallmeyer, A., Claussen, M., Lorenz, S. J., and Shanahan, T.: The end of the
African humid period as seen by a transient comprehensive Earth system model simulation of the last 8000 years, Clim. Past, 16, 117–140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-117-2020, 2020. a
Dallmeyer, A., Claussen, M., Lorenz, S. J., Sigl, M., Toohey, M., and
Herzschuh, U.: Holocene vegetation transitions and their climatic drivers in
MPI-ESM1.2, Clim. Past, 17, 2481–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2481-2021, 2021. a, b
Dallmeyer, A., Kleinen, T., Claussen, M., Weitzel, N., Cao, X., and Herzschuh, U.: The deglacial forest conundrum, Natu. Commun., 13, 6035, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33646-6, 2022. a
Etiope, G.: Gas Seepage Classification and Global Distribution, Springer International Publishing, Cham, 17–43, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-14601-0_2, 2015. a, b, c
Etiope, G. and Schwietzke, S.: Global geological methane emissions: An update of top-down and bottom-up estimates, Elementa, 7, 47, https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.383, 2019. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Fairbanks, R. G.: A 17,000-year glacio-eustatic sea level record: influence of glacial melting rates on the Younger Dryas event and deep-ocean circulation, Nature, 342, 637–642, https://doi.org/10.1038/342637a0, 1989. a
Fischer, H., Behrens, M., Bock, M., Richter, U., Schmitt, J., Loulergue, L.,
Chappellaz, J., Spahni, R., Blunier, T., Leuenberger, M., and Stocker, T. F.:
Changing boreal methane sources and constant biomass burning during the last
termination, Nature, 452, 864–867, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06825, 2008. a
Goll, D. S., Brovkin, V., Liski, J., Raddatz, T., Thum, T., and Todd-Brown, K. E. O.: Strong dependence of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 29, 1511–1523, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GB004988, 2015. a
Gromov, S., Steil, B., Kleinen, T., and Brovkin, V.: On the factors
controlling the atmospheric oxidative capacity and CH4 lifetime during
the LGM, Geophys. Res. Abstr., 20, 19038-1, https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.20300.23682, 2018. a
Guenther, A. B., Jiang, X., Heald, C. L., Sakulyanontvittaya, T., Duhl, T.,
Emmons, L. K., and Wang, X.: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature version 2.1 (MEGAN2.1): an extended and updated framework for modeling biogenic emissions, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1471–1492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1471-2012, 2012. a
Hmiel, B., Petrenko, V. V., Dyonisius, M. N., Buizert, C., Smith, A. M., Place, P. F., Harth, C., Beaudette, R., Hua, Q., Yang, B., Vimont, I., Michel, S. E., Severinghaus, J. P., Etheridge, D., Bromley, T., Schmitt, J.,
Faïn, X., Weiss, R. F., and Dlugokencky, E.: Preindustrial
14CH4 indicates greater anthropogenic fossil CH4 emissions, Nature, 578, 409–412, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-1991-8, 2020. a, b
Hopcroft, P. O., Valdes, P. J., O'Connor, F. M., Kaplan, J. O., and Beerling,
D. J.: Understanding the glacial methane cycle, Nat. Commun., 8, 14383, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14383, 2017. a, b, c, d
Hristov, A. N.: Historic, pre-European settlement, and present-day
contribution of wild ruminants to enteric methane emissions in the United
States, J. Anim. Sci., 90, 1371–1375, https://doi.org/10.2527/jas.2011-4539, 2012. a
Ivanovic, R. F., Gregoire, L. J., Kageyama, M., Roche, D. M., Valdes, P. J.,
Burke, A., Drummond, R., Peltier, W. R., and Tarasov, L.: Transient climate
simulations of the deglaciation 21–9 thousand years before present
(version 1) – PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2563-2016, 2016. a
Jeltsch-Thömmes, A., Battaglia, G., Cartapanis, O., Jaccard, S. L., and Joos, F.: Low terrestrial carbon storage at the Last Glacial Maximum: constraints from multi-proxy data, Clim. Past, 15, 849–879,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-849-2019, 2019. a
Joeckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Pozzer, A., Sander, R., Tost, H., Riede, H.,
Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., and Kern, B.: Development cycle 2 of the
Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 717–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010. a, b
Kaiser, J. W., Heil, A., Andreae, M. O., Benedetti, A., Chubarova, N., Jones,
L., Morcrette, J.-J., Razinger, M., Schultz, M. G., Suttie, M., and van der
Werf, G. R.: Biomass burning emissions estimated with a global fire assimilation system based on observed fire radiative power, Biogeosciences, 9, 527–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-527-2012, 2012. a, b, c
Kapsch, M.-L., Mikolajewicz, U., Ziemen, F., and Schannwell, C.: Ocean Response in Transient Simulations of the Last Deglaciation Dominated by Underlying Ice-Sheet Reconstruction and Method of Meltwater Distribution, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL096767, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096767, 2022. a, b, c
Kinne, S., O'Donnel, D., Stier, P., Kloster, S., Zhang, K., Schmidt, H., Rast, S., Giorgetta, M., Eck, T. F., and Stevens, B.: MAC-v1: A new global
aerosol climatology for climate studies, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 704–740, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20035, 2013. a
Kirschke, S., Bousquet, P., Ciais, P., Saunois, M., Canadell, J. G.,
Dlugokencky, E. J., Bergamaschi, P., Bergmann, D., Blake, D. R., Bruhwiler,
L., Cameron-Smith, P., Castaldi, S., Chevallier, F., Feng, L., Fraser, A.,
Heimann, M., Hodson, E. L., Houweling, S., Josse, B., Fraser, P. J., Krummel,
P. B., Lamarque, J.-F., Langenfelds, R. L., Le Quere, C., Naik, V., O'Doherty, S., Palmer, P. I., Pison, I., Plummer, D., Poulter, B., Prinn,
R. G., Rigby, M., Ringeval, B., Santini, M., Schmidt, M., Shindell, D. T.,
Simpson, I. J., Spahni, R., Steele, L. P., Strode, S. A., Sudo, K., Szopa,
S., van der Werf, G. R., Voulgarakis, A., van Weele, M., Weiss, R. F., Williams, J. E., and Zeng, G.: Three decades of global methane sources and
sinks, Nat. Geosci., 6, 813–823, 2013. a, b
Kleinen, T., Gromov, S., Steil, B., and Brovkin, V.: PalMod2 MPI-M MPI-ESM1-2-CR-CH4 transient-deglaciation-prescribed-glac1d-methane,
WCD Climate [data set], https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/PMMXMCHTD, 2023a. a
Kleinen, T., Gromov, S., Steil, B., and Brovkin, V.: Atmospheric methane since the LGM was driven by wetland sources, Zenodo [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7670389, 2023b. a
Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E.: Anthropogenic
land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 927–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-927-2017, 2017. a
Lambeck, K., Rouby, H., Purcell, A., Sun, Y., and Sambridge, M.: Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 15296–15303, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1411762111, 2014. a
Lasslop, G., Thonicke, K., and Kloster, S.: SPITFIRE within the MPI Earth
system model: Model development and evaluation, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, 740–755, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013MS000284, 2014. a, b, c, d
Lee, J. E., Edwards, J. S., Schmitt, J., Fischer, H., Bock, M., and Brook,
E. J.: Excess methane in Greenland ice cores associated with high dust
concentrations, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 270, 409–430,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2019.11.020, 2020. a
Levine, J. G., Wolff, E. W., Jones, A. E., and Sime, L. C.: The role of atomic chlorine in glacial-interglacial changes in the carbon-13 content of
atmospheric methane, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04801, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046122, 2011. a
Marlon, J. R., Bartlein, P. J., Carcaillet, C., Gavin, D. G., Harrison, S. P., Higuera, P. E., Joos, F., Power, M. J., and Prentice, I. C.: Climate and human influences on global biomass burning over the past two millennia,
Nat. Geosci., 1, 697–702, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo313, 2008. a, b
Marthews, T. R., Dadson, S. J., Lehner, B., Abele, S., and Gedney, N.:
High-resolution global topographic index values for use in large-scale hydrological modelling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 91–104,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-91-2015, 2015. a
Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Becker, T., Behrens, J., Bittner, M., Brokopf, R.,
Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fast, I., Fiedler, S.,
Fläschner, D., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M., Goll, D. S., Haak, H., Hagemann, S., Hedemann, C., Hohenegger, C., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T., Jimenéz-de-la
Cuesta, D., Jungclaus, J., Kleinen, T., Kloster, S., Kracher, D., Kinne, S.,
Kleberg, D., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner,
K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Möbis, B., Müller, W. A., Nabel, J. E.
M. S., Nam, C. C. W., Notz, D., Nyawira, S.-S., Paulsen, H., Peters, K.,
Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Popp, M., Raddatz, T. J., Rast, S.,
Redler, R., Reick, C. H., Rohrschneider, T., Schemann, V., Schmidt, H.,
Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K. D., Stein, L., Stemmler, I., Stevens,
B., von Storch, J.-S., Tian, F., Voigt, A., Vrese, P., Wieners, K.-H.,
Wilkenskjeld, S., Winkler, A., and Roeckner, E.: Developments in the MPI-M
Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and its response to increasing
CO2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 998–1038, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001400, 2019. a
Mazzini, A., Sciarra, A., Etiope, G., Sadavarte, P., Houweling, S., Pandey, S., and Husein, A.: Relevant methane emission to the atmosphere from a geological gas manifestation, Sci. Rep., 11, 4138,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-83369-9, 2021. a
McManus, J. F., Francois, R., Gherardi, J.-M., Keigwin, L. D., and Brown-Leger, S.: Collapse and rapid resumption of Atlantic meridional circulation linked to deglacial climate changes, Nature, 428, 834–837,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02494, 2004. a
Meccia, V. L. and Mikolajewicz, U.: Interactive ocean bathymetry and coastlines for simulating the last deglaciation with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-v1.2), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4677–4692, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4677-2018, 2018. a, b
Melton, J. R., Wania, R., Hodson, E. L., Poulter, B., Ringeval, B., Spahni, R., Bohn, T., Avis, C. A., Beerling, D. J., Chen, G., Eliseev, A. V., Denisov, S. N., Hopcroft, P. O., Lettenmaier, D. P., Riley, W. J., Singarayer, J. S., Subin, Z. M., Tian, H., Zürcher, S., Brovkin, V., van Bodegom, P. M., Kleinen, T., Yu, Z. C., and Kaplan, J. O.: Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP), Biogeosciences, 10, 753–788,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013. a
Mikolajewicz, U., Ziemen, F., Cioni, G., Claussen, M., Fraedrich, K., Heidkamp, M., Hohenegger, C., Jimenez de la Cuesta, D., Kapsch, M.-L., Lemburg, A., Mauritsen, T., Meraner, K., Röber, N., Schmidt, H., Six, K. D., Stemmler, I., Tamarin-Brodsky, T., Winkler, A., Zhu, X., and Stevens, B.: The climate of a retrograde rotating Earth, Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1191–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, 2018. a
Murray, L. T., Mickley, L. J., Kaplan, J. O., Sofen, E. D., Pfeiffer, M., and
Alexander, B.: Factors controlling variability in the oxidative capacity of
the troposphere since the Last Glacial Maximum, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3589–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3589-2014, 2014. a, b
Murton, J. B., Bateman, M. D., Dallimore, S. R., Teller, J. T., and Yang, Z.:
Identification of Younger Dryas outburst flood path from Lake Agassiz to the
Arctic Ocean, Nature, 464, 740–743, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08954, 2010. a
Nicewonger, M. R., Aydin, M., Prather, M. J., and Saltzman, E. S.: Extracting a History of Global Fire Emissions for the Past Millennium From Ice Core
Records of Acetylene, Ethane, and Methane, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2020JD032932, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032932, 2020. a, b
Oh, Y., Zhuang, Q., Liu, L., Welp, L. R., Lau, M. C. Y., Onstott, T. C.,
Medvigy, D., Bruhwiler, L., Dlugokencky, E. J., Hugelius, G., D'Imperio, L.,
and Elberling, B.: Reduced net methane emissions due to microbial methane
oxidation in a warmer Arctic, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 317–321,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0734-z, 2020. a, b
Osman, M. B., Tierney, J. E., Zhu, J., Tardif, R., Hakim, G. J., King, J., and Poulsen, C. J.: Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum, Nature, 599, 239–244, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03984-4, 2021. a, b, c, d
Petit, J. R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N. I., Barnola, J.-M., Basile,
I., Bender, M., Chappellaz, J., Davis, M., Delaygue, G., Delmotte, M.,
Kotlyakov, V. M., Legrand, M., Lipenkov, V. Y., Lorius, C., Pépin, L.,
Ritz, C., Saltzman, E., and Stievenard, M.: Climate and atmospheric history
of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica, Nature,
399, 429–436, https://doi.org/10.1038/20859, 1999. a
Petrenko, V. V., Smith, A. M., Schaefer, H., Riedel, K., Brook, E., Baggenstos, D., Harth, C., Hua, Q., Buizert, C., Schilt, A., Fain, X., Mitchell, L., Bauska, T., Orsi, A., Weiss, R. F., and Severinghaus, J. P.: Minimal geological methane emissions during the Younger Dryas–Preboreal abrupt warming event, Nature, 548, 443–446, 2017. a, b
Power, M. J., Marlon, J., Ortiz, N., Bartlein, P. J., Harrison, S. P., Mayle,
F. E., Ballouche, A., Bradshaw, R. H. W., Carcaillet, C., Cordova, C.,
Mooney, S., Moreno, P. I., Prentice, I. C., Thonicke, K., Tinner, W.,
Whitlock, C., Zhang, Y., Zhao, Y., Ali, A. A., Anderson, R. S., Beer, R.,
Behling, H., Briles, C., Brown, K. J., Brunelle, A., Bush, M., Camill, P.,
Chu, G. Q., Clark, J., Colombaroli, D., Connor, S., Daniau, A.-L., Daniels,
M., Dodson, J., Doughty, E., Edwards, M. E., Finsinger, W., Foster, D.,
Frechette, J., Gaillard, M.-J., Gavin, D. G., Gobet, E., Haberle, S.,
Hallett, D. J., Higuera, P., Hope, G., Horn, S., Inoue, J., Kaltenrieder, P.,
Kennedy, L., Kong, Z. C., Larsen, C., Long, C. J., Lynch, J., Lynch, E. A.,
McGlone, M., Meeks, S., Mensing, S., Meyer, G., Minckley, T., Mohr, J.,
Nelson, D. M., New, J., Newnham, R., Noti, R., Oswald, W., Pierce, J.,
Richard, P. J. H., Rowe, C., Sanchez Goñi, M. F., Shuman, B. N.,
Takahara, H., Toney, J., Turney, C., Urrego-Sanchez, D. H., Umbanhowar, C.,
Vandergoes, M., Vanniere, B., Vescovi, E., Walsh, M., Wang, X., Williams, N.,
Wilmshurst, J., and Zhang, J. H.: Changes in fire regimes since the Last
Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of
charcoal data, Clim. Dynam., 30, 887–907, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0334-x, 2008. a
Price, C. and Rind, D.: A simple lightning parameterization for calculating
global lightning distributions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 97, 9919–9933, https://doi.org/10.1029/92JD00719, 1992. a, b
Price, C. and Rind, D.: What determines the cloud-to-ground lightning fraction in thunderstorms?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 20, 463–466,
https://doi.org/10.1029/93GL00226, 1993. a, b
Prigent, C., Papa, F., Aires, F., Jimenez, C., Rossow, W. B., and Matthews, E.: Changes in land surface water dynamics since the 1990s and relation to
population pressure, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L08403,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051276, 2012. a, b
Reick, C. H., Gayler, V., Goll, D., Hagemann, S., Heidkamp, M., Nabel, J. E.,
Raddatz, T., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., and Wilkenskjeld, S.: JSBACH 3 – The land component of the MPI Earth System Model: documentation of version 3.2, Tech. Rep. Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung 240, Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany, https://doi.org/10.17617/2.3279802, 2021. a
Riddick, T., Brovkin, V., Hagemann, S., and Mikolajewicz, U.: Dynamic
hydrological discharge modelling for coupled climate model simulations of the
last glacial cycle: the MPI-DynamicHD model version 3.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4291–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4291-2018, 2018. a, b
Riley, W. J., Subin, Z. M., Lawrence, D. M., Swenson, S. C., Torn, M. S., Meng, L., Mahowald, N. M., and Hess, P.: Barriers to predicting changes in global terrestrial methane fluxes: analyses using CLM4Me, a methane
biogeochemistry model integrated in CESM, Biogeosciences, 8, 1925–1953,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-1925-2011, 2011. a, b, c
Saunois, M., Bousquet, P., Poulter, B., Peregon, A., Ciais, P., Canadell, J. G., Dlugokencky, E. J., Etiope, G., Bastviken, D., Houweling, S., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Tubiello, F. N., Castaldi, S., Jackson, R. B., Alexe,
M., Arora, V. K., Beerling, D. J., Bergamaschi, P., Blake, D. R., Brailsford,
G., Brovkin, V., Bruhwiler, L., Crevoisier, C., Crill, P., Covey, K., Curry,
C., Frankenberg, C., Gedney, N., Höglund-Isaksson, L., Ishizawa, M., Ito,
A., Joos, F., Kim, H.-S., Kleinen, T., Krummel, P., Lamarque, J.-F.,
Langenfelds, R., Locatelli, R., Machida, T., Maksyutov, S., McDonald, K. C.,
Marshall, J., Melton, J. R., Morino, I., Naik, V., O'Doherty, S., Parmentier,
F.-J. W., Patra, P. K., Peng, C., Peng, S., Peters, G. P., Pison, I., Prigent, C., Prinn, R., Ramonet, M., Riley, W. J., Saito, M., Santini, M.,
Schroeder, R., Simpson, I. J., Spahni, R., Steele, P., Takizawa, A., Thornton, B. F., Tian, H., Tohjima, Y., Viovy, N., Voulgarakis, A., van Weele, M., van der Werf, G. R., Weiss, R., Wiedinmyer, C., Wilton, D. J.,
Wiltshire, A., Worthy, D., Wunch, D., Xu, X., Yoshida, Y., Zhang, B., Zhang,
Z., and Zhu, Q.: The global methane budget 2000–2012, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i
Saunois, M., Stavert, A. R., Poulter, B., Bousquet, P., Canadell, J. G.,
Jackson, R. B., Raymond, P. A., Dlugokencky, E. J., Houweling, S., Patra, P. K., Ciais, P., Arora, V. K., Bastviken, D., Bergamaschi, P., Blake, D. R.,
Brailsford, G., Bruhwiler, L., Carlson, K. M., Carrol, M., Castaldi, S.,
Chandra, N., Crevoisier, C., Crill, P. M., Covey, K., Curry, C. L., Etiope, G., Frankenberg, C., Gedney, N., Hegglin, M. I., Höglund-Isaksson, L.,
Hugelius, G., Ishizawa, M., Ito, A., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Jensen, K. M.,
Joos, F., Kleinen, T., Krummel, P. B., Langenfelds, R. L., Laruelle, G. G.,
Liu, L., Machida, T., Maksyutov, S., McDonald, K. C., McNorton, J., Miller,
P. A., Melton, J. R., Morino, I., Müller, J., Murguia-Flores, F., Naik, V., Niwa, Y., Noce, S., O'Doherty, S., Parker, R. J., Peng, C., Peng, S., Peters, G. P., Prigent, C., Prinn, R., Ramonet, M., Regnier, P., Riley, W. J., Rosentreter, J. A., Segers, A., Simpson, I. J., Shi, H., Smith, S. J.,
Steele, L. P., Thornton, B. F., Tian, H., Tohjima, Y., Tubiello, F. N.,
Tsuruta, A., Viovy, N., Voulgarakis, A., Weber, T. S., van Weele, M., van der
Werf, G. R., Weiss, R. F., Worthy, D., Wunch, D., Yin, Y., Yoshida, Y., Zhang, W., Zhang, Z., Zhao, Y., Zheng, B., Zhu, Q., Zhu, Q., and Zhuang, Q.:
The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k
Schaffer, J., Timmermann, R., Arndt, J. E., Kristensen, S. S., Mayer, C.,
Morlighem, M., and Steinhage, D.: A global, high-resolution data set of ice
sheet topography, cavity geometry, and ocean bathymetry, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 543–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-543-2016, 2016. a
Schneck, R., Reick, C. H., and Raddatz, T.: Land contribution to natural CO2 variability on time scales of centuries, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 354–365, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20029, 2013. a
Shakun, J. D., Clark, P. U., He, F., Marcott, S. A., Mix, A. C., Liu, Z.,
Otto-Bliesner, B., Schmittner, A., and Bard, E.: Global warming preceded by
increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation,
Nature, 484, 49–54, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10915, 2012. a, b, c, d
Singarayer, J. S., Valdes, P. J., Friedlingstein, P., Nelson, S., and Beerling, D. J.: Late Holocene methane rise caused by orbitally controlled increase in tropical sources, Nature, 470, 82–85, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09739, 2011. a, b, c, d
Smith, F. A., Hammond, J. I., Balk, M. A., Elliott, S. M., Lyons, S. K., Pardi, M. I., Tomé, C. P., Wagner, P. J., and Westover, M. L.: Exploring the influence of ancient and historic megaherbivore extirpations on the global methane budget, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 874–879, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1502547112, 2016. a, b
Stanford, J., Rohling, E., Bacon, S., Roberts, A., Grousset, F., and Bolshaw,
M.: A new concept for the paleoceanographic evolution of Heinrich event 1 in
the North Atlantic, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 30, 1047–1066,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.02.003, 2011. a
Tarasov, L., Dyke, A. S., Neal, R. M., and Peltier, W.: A data-calibrated
distribution of deglacial chronologies for the North American ice complex
from glaciological modeling, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 315–316, 30–40, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.09.010, 2012. a
Thompson, A. M., Chappellaz, J. A., Fung, I. Y., and Kucsera, T. L.: The
atmospheric CH4 increase since the Last Glacial Maximum:
(2). interactions with oxidants, Tellus B, 45, 242–257,
https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0889.1993.t01-2-00003.x, 1993. a
Valdes, P. J., Beerling, D. J., and Johnson, C. E.: The ice age methane budget, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L02704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021004, 2005. a, b, c, d
Wania, R., Ross, I., and Prentice, I. C.: Implementation and evaluation of a
new methane model within a dynamic global vegetation model: LPJ-WHyMe v1.3.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 565–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-565-2010, 2010. a
Weber, S. L., Drury, A. J., Toonen, W. H. J., and van Weele, M.: Wetland
methane emissions during the Last Glacial Maximum estimated from
PMIP2 simulations: Climate, vegetation, and geographic controls, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D06111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012110, 2010.
a
Ziemen, F. A., Kapsch, M.-L., Klockmann, M., and Mikolajewicz, U.: Heinrich
events show two-stage climate response in transient glacial simulations, Clim. Past, 15, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-153-2019, 2019. a
Zürcher, S., Spahni, R., Joos, F., Steinacher, M., and Fischer, H.: Impact of an abrupt cooling event on interglacial methane emissions in northern peatlands, Biogeosciences, 10, 1963–1981, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1963-2013, 2013. a
Short summary
We modelled atmospheric methane continuously from the last glacial maximum to the present using a state-of-the-art Earth system model. Our model results compare well with reconstructions from ice cores and improve our understanding of a very intriguing period of Earth system history, the deglaciation, when atmospheric methane changed quickly and strongly. Deglacial methane changes are driven by emissions from tropical wetlands, with wetlands in high northern latitudes being secondary.
We modelled atmospheric methane continuously from the last glacial maximum to the present using...
