Articles | Volume 18, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1385-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1385-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The warm winter paradox in the Pliocene northern high latitudes
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
Alan M. Haywood
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
Ulrich Salzmann
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 8ST, UK
Aisling M. Dolan
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
Tamara Fletcher
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Modeling the mid-piacenzian warm climate using the water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM1.2-ITPCAS) Y. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07304-0
- Stratigraphy and paleontology (plant and arthropod fossils) from the Late Neogene Niguanak site, Arctic Slope, Northern Alaska L. Carter et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2024.2407714
- A European monsoon-like climate in a warmhouse world N. Van Horebeek et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64241-0
- The impacts of reduced ice sheets, vegetation, and elevated CO 2 on future Arctic climates K. Power & Q. Zhang https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2024.2433860
- The role of atmospheric CO2 in controlling sea surface temperature change during the Pliocene L. Burton et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1177-2024
- Individual foraminiferal analysis: A promising tool for high-resolution temperature and pH reconstruction Z. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2026.123395
- The Late Pliocene jet stream: Changes and drivers of the mean state and variability A. Buchan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-861-2026
- Less Dryland Aridity During Pliocene Warmth R. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039371
- Asymmetric Pacific variability in the Pliocene: An unchanged PDO relative to a suppressed ENSO K. Canal-Solis et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104932
- High altitude Pliocene to Pleistocene vegetation and climate change of the Kunlun Pass Basin, NE Tibetan Plateau F. Schwarz et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104078
- Arctic Amplification in the Past, Present, and Future: A Review for the Challenge to the Integrative Understanding of its Mechanism M. YOSHIMORI et al. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2025-027
- Mid-Pliocene not analogous to high-CO2 climate when considering Northern Hemisphere winter variability A. Oldeman et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-395-2024
- Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world N. de Winter et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl6717
- The future extent of the Anthropocene epoch: A synthesis C. Summerhayes et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104568
- Paleoclimate data provide constraints on climate models' large-scale response to past CO2 changes D. Lunt et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01531-3
- Modeling the Late Pliocene with AWI-CM3 as a contribution to PlioMIP3 core experiments F. Matos et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105196
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Modeling the mid-piacenzian warm climate using the water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM1.2-ITPCAS) Y. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07304-0
- Stratigraphy and paleontology (plant and arthropod fossils) from the Late Neogene Niguanak site, Arctic Slope, Northern Alaska L. Carter et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2024.2407714
- A European monsoon-like climate in a warmhouse world N. Van Horebeek et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64241-0
- The impacts of reduced ice sheets, vegetation, and elevated CO 2 on future Arctic climates K. Power & Q. Zhang https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2024.2433860
- The role of atmospheric CO2 in controlling sea surface temperature change during the Pliocene L. Burton et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1177-2024
- Individual foraminiferal analysis: A promising tool for high-resolution temperature and pH reconstruction Z. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2026.123395
- The Late Pliocene jet stream: Changes and drivers of the mean state and variability A. Buchan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-861-2026
- Less Dryland Aridity During Pliocene Warmth R. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039371
- Asymmetric Pacific variability in the Pliocene: An unchanged PDO relative to a suppressed ENSO K. Canal-Solis et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104932
- High altitude Pliocene to Pleistocene vegetation and climate change of the Kunlun Pass Basin, NE Tibetan Plateau F. Schwarz et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104078
- Arctic Amplification in the Past, Present, and Future: A Review for the Challenge to the Integrative Understanding of its Mechanism M. YOSHIMORI et al. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2025-027
- Mid-Pliocene not analogous to high-CO2 climate when considering Northern Hemisphere winter variability A. Oldeman et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-395-2024
- Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world N. de Winter et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl6717
- The future extent of the Anthropocene epoch: A synthesis C. Summerhayes et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104568
- Paleoclimate data provide constraints on climate models' large-scale response to past CO2 changes D. Lunt et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01531-3
- Modeling the Late Pliocene with AWI-CM3 as a contribution to PlioMIP3 core experiments F. Matos et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105196
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Short summary
The mid-Pliocene (MP; ∼3.0 Ma) had CO2 levels similar to today and average temperatures ∼3°C warmer. At terrestrial high latitudes, MP temperatures from climate models are much lower than those reconstructed from data. This mismatch occurs in the winter but not the summer. The winter model–data mismatch likely has multiple causes. One novel cause is that the MP climate may be outside the modern sample, and errors could occur when using information from the modern era to reconstruct climate.
The mid-Pliocene (MP; ∼3.0 Ma) had CO2 levels similar to today and average temperatures ∼3°C...