Articles | Volume 17, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Dec 2021
Research article |
| 01 Dec 2021
| 01 Dec 2021
Reduced El Niño variability in the mid-Pliocene according to the PlioMIP2 ensemble
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Department of Physics, Utrecht University, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Michiel L. J. Baatsen
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Department of Physics, Utrecht University, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Anna S. von der Heydt
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Department of Physics, Utrecht University, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Centre for Complex Systems Science, Utrecht University, 3584 CE Utrecht, the Netherlands
Henk A. Dijkstra
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Department of Physics, Utrecht University, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Centre for Complex Systems Science, Utrecht University, 3584 CE Utrecht, the Netherlands
Julia C. Tindall
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, West Yorkshire, LS2 9JT, UK
Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, 277-8564, Japan
Alice R. Booth
School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
Esther C. Brady
National Center for Atmospheric Research, (NCAR), Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Wing-Le Chan
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, 277-8564, Japan
Deepak Chandan
Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, M5S 1A7, Canada
Mark A. Chandler
CCSR/GISS, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA
Camille Contoux
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Ran Feng
Department of Geosciences, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06033, USA
Chuncheng Guo
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, 5007 Bergen, Norway
Alan M. Haywood
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, West Yorkshire, LS2 9JT, UK
Stephen J. Hunter
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, West Yorkshire, LS2 9JT, UK
Youichi Kamae
Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, 305-8572, Japan
Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden
Xiangyu Li
Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental studies, China University of Geoscience, Wuhan 430074, China
Gerrit Lohmann
Alfred-Wegener-Institut – Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar and Meeresforschung (AWI), 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
Daniel J. Lunt
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Kerim H. Nisancioglu
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, 5007 Bergen, Norway
Centre for Earth Evolution and Dynamics, University of Oslo, 0315 Oslo, Norway
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
National Center for Atmospheric Research, (NCAR), Boulder, CO 80305, USA
W. Richard Peltier
Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, M5S 1A7, Canada
Gabriel M. Pontes
Oceanographic Institute, University of São Paulo, 05508-120 São Paolo Brazil
Gilles Ramstein
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Linda E. Sohl
CCSR/GISS, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA
Christian Stepanek
Alfred-Wegener-Institut – Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar and Meeresforschung (AWI), 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
Ning Tan
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Qiong Zhang
Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden
Zhongshi Zhang
Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental studies, China University of Geoscience, Wuhan 430074, China
Ilana Wainer
Oceanographic Institute, University of São Paulo, 05508-120 São Paolo Brazil
Charles J. R. Williams
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6ET Reading, UK
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Cited
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2 X. Ren et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023
- Southern African precipitation changes in a warmer world: insights from the PlioMIP2 mid-Pliocene warm period (∼3.3–3.0 Ma) ensemble S. Roffe et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/0035919X.2024.2410945
- Fingerprints of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and solar activity cycles recorded in the middle Eocene Bohai Bay Basin (East China) Y. Han et al. https://doi.org/10.1130/B37981.1
- Asymmetric Pacific variability in the Pliocene: An unchanged PDO relative to a suppressed ENSO K. Canal-Solis et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104932
- A proxy-model comparison for mid-Pliocene warm period hydroclimate in the Southwestern US S. Menemenlis et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2022.117803
- Mid-Pliocene not analogous to high-CO2 climate when considering Northern Hemisphere winter variability A. Oldeman et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-395-2024
- Warm mid-Pliocene conditions without high climate sensitivity: the CCSM4-Utrecht (CESM 1.0.5) contribution to the PlioMIP2 M. Baatsen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-657-2022
- Mid-Pliocene El Niño/Southern Oscillation suppressed by Pacific intertropical convergence zone shift G. Pontes et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00999-y
- The Late Pliocene jet stream: Changes and drivers of the mean state and variability A. Buchan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-861-2026
- Evaluating the large-scale hydrological cycle response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble Z. Han et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021
- Less Dryland Aridity During Pliocene Warmth R. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039371
- Similar North Pacific variability despite suppressed El Niño variability in the warm mid-Pliocene climate A. Oldeman et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1037-2024
- The variations of marine heatwaves during the mid-Pliocene warm period based on CESM2 X. Kong et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2025.113118
- Modeling the mid-piacenzian warm climate using the water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM1.2-ITPCAS) Y. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07304-0
- Inter-annual variability of the Indian summer monsoon: a comparative study of the mid-Pliocene and pre-industrial eras K. Dahiya et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07775-9
- On the importance of moisture conveyor belts from the tropical eastern Pacific for wetter conditions in the Atacama Desert during the mid-Pliocene M. Reyers et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023
- Tropical circulation shifts and regional climate impacts: Comparing mid-Piacenzian warmth and future warming (SSP2–4.5) K. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104941
- Precessional modulation of ENSO strength and spatial structure in a transient CGCM simulation of the past 3 million years C. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01355-2
- Warm Equatorial Upper Ocean Thermal Structure During the Mid‐Pliocene Warm Period: A Data‐Model Comparison H. Ford et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL114749
- Influence of plate reference frames on deep-time climate simulations Z. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104352
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2 X. Ren et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023
- Southern African precipitation changes in a warmer world: insights from the PlioMIP2 mid-Pliocene warm period (∼3.3–3.0 Ma) ensemble S. Roffe et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/0035919X.2024.2410945
- Fingerprints of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and solar activity cycles recorded in the middle Eocene Bohai Bay Basin (East China) Y. Han et al. https://doi.org/10.1130/B37981.1
- Asymmetric Pacific variability in the Pliocene: An unchanged PDO relative to a suppressed ENSO K. Canal-Solis et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104932
- A proxy-model comparison for mid-Pliocene warm period hydroclimate in the Southwestern US S. Menemenlis et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2022.117803
- Mid-Pliocene not analogous to high-CO2 climate when considering Northern Hemisphere winter variability A. Oldeman et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-395-2024
- Warm mid-Pliocene conditions without high climate sensitivity: the CCSM4-Utrecht (CESM 1.0.5) contribution to the PlioMIP2 M. Baatsen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-657-2022
- Mid-Pliocene El Niño/Southern Oscillation suppressed by Pacific intertropical convergence zone shift G. Pontes et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00999-y
- The Late Pliocene jet stream: Changes and drivers of the mean state and variability A. Buchan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-861-2026
- Evaluating the large-scale hydrological cycle response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble Z. Han et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021
- Less Dryland Aridity During Pliocene Warmth R. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039371
- Similar North Pacific variability despite suppressed El Niño variability in the warm mid-Pliocene climate A. Oldeman et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1037-2024
- The variations of marine heatwaves during the mid-Pliocene warm period based on CESM2 X. Kong et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2025.113118
- Modeling the mid-piacenzian warm climate using the water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM1.2-ITPCAS) Y. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07304-0
- Inter-annual variability of the Indian summer monsoon: a comparative study of the mid-Pliocene and pre-industrial eras K. Dahiya et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07775-9
- On the importance of moisture conveyor belts from the tropical eastern Pacific for wetter conditions in the Atacama Desert during the mid-Pliocene M. Reyers et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023
- Tropical circulation shifts and regional climate impacts: Comparing mid-Piacenzian warmth and future warming (SSP2–4.5) K. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104941
- Precessional modulation of ENSO strength and spatial structure in a transient CGCM simulation of the past 3 million years C. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01355-2
- Warm Equatorial Upper Ocean Thermal Structure During the Mid‐Pliocene Warm Period: A Data‐Model Comparison H. Ford et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL114749
- Influence of plate reference frames on deep-time climate simulations Z. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104352
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 25 Jul 2026
Short summary
In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of...
