Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Jun 2021
Research article |
| 14 Jun 2021
| 14 Jun 2021
The role of land cover in the climate of glacial Europe
Patricio Velasquez
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Jed O. Kaplan
Department of Earth Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
Martina Messmer
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
School of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Patrick Ludwig
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Christoph C. Raible
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Related authors
Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Sebastian Lienert, Guillaume Jouvet, Patricio Velasquez Alvarez, Basil Davis, Patrick Ludwig, Fortunat Joos, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 20, 449–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a series of experiments conducted for the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka) over Europe using the regional climate Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolutions. The model, with new developments better suited to paleo-studies, agrees well with pollen-based climate reconstructions. This agreement is improved when considering different sources of uncertainty. The effect of convection-permitting resolutions is also assessed.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the sensitivity of the glacial Alpine hydro-climate to northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet changes. We perform sensitivity simulations of up to 2 km horizontal resolution over the Alps for glacial periods. The findings demonstrate that northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet topography are important role in regulating the Alpine hydro-climate and permits a better understanding of the Alpine precipitation patterns at glacial times.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5007–5027, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a new bias-correction method for precipitation that considers orographic characteristics, which can be used in studies where the latter strongly changes. The three-step correction method consists of a separation into orographic features, correction of low-intensity precipitation, and application of empirical quantile mapping. Seasonal bias induced by the global climate model is fully corrected. Rigorous cross-validations illustrate the method's applicability and robustness.
Paolo Laj, Alessandro Bigi, Clémence Rose, Elisabeth Andrews, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Martine Collaud Coen, Yong Lin, Alfred Wiedensohler, Michael Schulz, John A. Ogren, Markus Fiebig, Jonas Gliß, Augustin Mortier, Marco Pandolfi, Tuukka Petäja, Sang-Woo Kim, Wenche Aas, Jean-Philippe Putaud, Olga Mayol-Bracero, Melita Keywood, Lorenzo Labrador, Pasi Aalto, Erik Ahlberg, Lucas Alados Arboledas, Andrés Alastuey, Marcos Andrade, Begoña Artíñano, Stina Ausmeel, Todor Arsov, Eija Asmi, John Backman, Urs Baltensperger, Susanne Bastian, Olaf Bath, Johan Paul Beukes, Benjamin T. Brem, Nicolas Bukowiecki, Sébastien Conil, Cedric Couret, Derek Day, Wan Dayantolis, Anna Degorska, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Prodromos Fetfatzis, Olivier Favez, Harald Flentje, Maria I. Gini, Asta Gregorič, Martin Gysel-Beer, A. Gannet Hallar, Jenny Hand, Andras Hoffer, Christoph Hueglin, Rakesh K. Hooda, Antti Hyvärinen, Ivo Kalapov, Nikos Kalivitis, Anne Kasper-Giebl, Jeong Eun Kim, Giorgos Kouvarakis, Irena Kranjc, Radovan Krejci, Markku Kulmala, Casper Labuschagne, Hae-Jung Lee, Heikki Lihavainen, Neng-Huei Lin, Gunter Löschau, Krista Luoma, Angela Marinoni, Sebastiao Martins Dos Santos, Frank Meinhardt, Maik Merkel, Jean-Marc Metzger, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, Nhat Anh Nguyen, Jakub Ondracek, Noemi Pérez, Maria Rita Perrone, Jean-Eudes Petit, David Picard, Jean-Marc Pichon, Veronique Pont, Natalia Prats, Anthony Prenni, Fabienne Reisen, Salvatore Romano, Karine Sellegri, Sangeeta Sharma, Gerhard Schauer, Patrick Sheridan, James Patrick Sherman, Maik Schütze, Andreas Schwerin, Ralf Sohmer, Mar Sorribas, Martin Steinbacher, Junying Sun, Gloria Titos, Barbara Toczko, Thomas Tuch, Pierre Tulet, Peter Tunved, Ville Vakkari, Fernando Velarde, Patricio Velasquez, Paolo Villani, Sterios Vratolis, Sheng-Hsiang Wang, Kay Weinhold, Rolf Weller, Margarita Yela, Jesus Yus-Diez, Vladimir Zdimal, Paul Zieger, and Nadezda Zikova
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 4353–4392, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4353-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4353-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper establishes the fiducial reference of the GAW aerosol network providing the fully characterized value chain to the provision of four climate-relevant aerosol properties from ground-based sites. Data from almost 90 stations worldwide are reported for a reference year, 2017, providing a unique and very robust view of the variability of these variables worldwide. Current gaps in the GAW network are analysed and requirements for the Global Climate Monitoring System are proposed.
Martine Collaud Coen, Elisabeth Andrews, Diego Aliaga, Marcos Andrade, Hristo Angelov, Nicolas Bukowiecki, Marina Ealo, Paulo Fialho, Harald Flentje, A. Gannet Hallar, Rakesh Hooda, Ivo Kalapov, Radovan Krejci, Neng-Huei Lin, Angela Marinoni, Jing Ming, Nhat Anh Nguyen, Marco Pandolfi, Véronique Pont, Ludwig Ries, Sergio Rodríguez, Gerhard Schauer, Karine Sellegri, Sangeeta Sharma, Junying Sun, Peter Tunved, Patricio Velasquez, and Dominique Ruffieux
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12289–12313, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12289-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12289-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
High altitude stations are often emphasized as free tropospheric measuring sites but they remain influenced by atmospheric boundary layer. An ABL-TopoIndex is defined from a topography analysis around the stations. This new index allows ranking stations as a function of the ABL influence due to topography or help to choose a new site to sample FT. The ABL-TopoIndex is validated by aerosol optical properties and number concentration measured at 29 high altitude stations of five continents.
Julien G. Anet, Martin Steinbacher, Laura Gallardo, Patricio A. Velásquez Álvarez, Lukas Emmenegger, and Brigitte Buchmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6477–6492, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6477-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6477-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
There are less long-term surface ozone measurements on the Southern than on the Northern Hemisphere, which makes it difficult to thoroughly understand global ozone chemistry. We have analyzed a new, 20-year-long ozone dataset measured at 2200 m asl at El Tololo, Chile, and show that the annual cycle of ozone is mainly driven by ozone transport from the stratosphere to the troposphere. As well, we illustrate that the timing of the annual maximum is regressing to earlier in the year.
Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Sebastian Lienert, Guillaume Jouvet, Patricio Velasquez Alvarez, Basil Davis, Patrick Ludwig, Fortunat Joos, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 20, 449–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a series of experiments conducted for the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka) over Europe using the regional climate Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolutions. The model, with new developments better suited to paleo-studies, agrees well with pollen-based climate reconstructions. This agreement is improved when considering different sources of uncertainty. The effect of convection-permitting resolutions is also assessed.
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 19, 2511–2533, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate circulation patterns associated with Mediterranean droughts during the last millennium using global climate simulations. Different circulation patterns driven by internal interactions in the climate system contribute to the occurrence of droughts in the Mediterranean. The detected patterns are different between the models, and this difference can be a potential source of uncertainty in model–proxy comparison and future projections of Mediterranean droughts.
Eric Samakinwa, Christoph C. Raible, Ralf Hand, Andrew R. Friedman, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-67, 2023
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we nudged a stand-alone ocean model MPI-OM to proxy-reconstructed SST. Based on these model simulations, we introduce new estimates of the AMOC variations during the period 1450–1780 through a 10-member ensemble simulation with a novel nudging technique. Our approach reaffirms the known mechanisms of AMOC variability and also improves existing knowledge of the interplay between the AMOC and the NAO during the AMOC's weak and strong phases.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Jonathan Robert Buzan, Emmanuele Russo, Woon Mi Kim, and Christoph C. Raible
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate is used to test climate models to verify that simulations accurately project both future and past climate states. We present fully coupled climate sensitivity simulations of Preindustrial, Last Glacial Maximum, and the Quaternary climate periods. We show distinct climate states derived from non-linear responses to ice sheet heights and orbits. The implication is that as paleo proxy data become more reliable, they may constrain the specific climate states produced by climate models.
Mark Reyers, Stephanie Fiedler, Patrick Ludwig, Christoph Böhm, Volker Wennrich, and Yaping Shao
Clim. Past, 19, 517–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we performed high-resolution climate model simulations for the hyper-arid Atacama Desert for the mid-Pliocene (3.2 Ma). The aim is to uncover the atmospheric processes that are involved in the enhancement of strong rainfall events during this period. We find that strong upper-level moisture fluxes (so-called moisture conveyor belts) originating in the tropical eastern Pacific are the main driver for increased rainfall in the mid-Pliocene.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Jed O. Kaplan and Katie Hong-Kiu Lau
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5665–5670, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5665-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5665-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Global lightning strokes are recorded continuously by a network of ground-based stations. We consolidated these point observations into a map form and provide these as electronic datasets for research purposes. Here we extend our dataset to include lightning observations from 2021.
Basil Andrew Stansfield Davis, Marc Fasel, Jed O. Kaplan, Emmanuele Russo, and Ariane Burke
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-59, 2022
Revised manuscript under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
During the last Ice Age 21 k BP, Northern Europe was covered in ice and steppe, and forests were restricted to sheltered regions to the south. However, the composition and extent of forest and its associated climate remains unclear, with models indicating more forest north of the Alps than suggested by the data. A new compilation of pollen records with improved dating suggests greater agreement with model climate, but still suggests models over estimate forest cover especially in the west.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the sensitivity of the glacial Alpine hydro-climate to northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet changes. We perform sensitivity simulations of up to 2 km horizontal resolution over the Alps for glacial periods. The findings demonstrate that northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet topography are important role in regulating the Alpine hydro-climate and permits a better understanding of the Alpine precipitation patterns at glacial times.
Helen Mackay, Gill Plunkett, Britta J. L. Jensen, Thomas J. Aubry, Christophe Corona, Woon Mi Kim, Matthew Toohey, Michael Sigl, Markus Stoffel, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Christoph Raible, Matthew S. M. Bolton, Joseph G. Manning, Timothy P. Newfield, Nicola Di Cosmo, Francis Ludlow, Conor Kostick, Zhen Yang, Lisa Coyle McClung, Matthew Amesbury, Alistair Monteath, Paul D. M. Hughes, Pete G. Langdon, Dan Charman, Robert Booth, Kimberley L. Davies, Antony Blundell, and Graeme T. Swindles
Clim. Past, 18, 1475–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the climatic and societal impact of the 852/3 CE Alaska Mount Churchill eruption using environmental reconstructions, historical records and climate simulations. The eruption is associated with significant Northern Hemisphere summer cooling, despite having only a moderate sulfate-based climate forcing potential; however, evidence of a widespread societal response is lacking. We discuss the difficulties of confirming volcanic impacts of a single eruption even when it is precisely dated.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Santos J. González-Rojí, Martina Messmer, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2859–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Different configurations of physics parameterizations of a regional climate model are tested over southern Peru at fine resolution. The most challenging regions compared to observational data are the slopes of the Andes. Model configurations for Europe and East Africa are not perfectly suitable for southern Peru. The experiment with the Stony Brook University microphysics scheme and the Grell–Freitas cumulus parameterization provides the most accurate results over Madre de Dios.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, Yi He, Martin Kadlec, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hilke S. Lentink, Patrick Ludwig, Desmond Manful, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 677–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
For various applications, it is crucial to have profound knowledge of the frequency, severity, and risk of extreme flood events. Such events are characterized by very long return periods which observations can not cover. We use a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations as input for a hydrological model. Precipitation data were post-processed to reduce systematic errors. The representation of precipitation and discharge is improved, and estimates of long return periods become robust.
Kim H. Stadelmaier, Patrick Ludwig, Pascal Bertran, Pierre Antoine, Xiaoxu Shi, Gerrit Lohmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Clim. Past, 17, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use regional climate simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum to reconstruct permafrost and to identify areas of thermal contraction cracking of the ground in western Europe. We find ground cracking, a precondition for the development of permafrost proxies, south of the probable permafrost border, implying that permafrost was not the limiting factor for proxy development. A good agreement with permafrost and climate proxy data is achieved when easterly winds are modelled more frequently.
Woon Mi Kim, Richard Blender, Michael Sigl, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 2031–2053, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2031-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2031-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the natural characteristics and future changes of the global extreme daily precipitation, it is necessary to explore the long-term characteristics of extreme daily precipitation. Here, we used climate simulations to analyze the characteristics and long-term changes of extreme precipitation during the past 3351 years. Our findings indicate that extreme precipitation in the past is associated with internal climate variability and regional surface temperatures.
Jed O. Kaplan and Katie Hong-Kiu Lau
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3219–3237, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3219-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning is an important atmospheric phenomenon and natural hazard, but few long-term data are freely available on lightning stroke location, timing, and power. Here, we present a new, open-access dataset of lightning strokes covering 2010–2020, based on a network of low-frequency radio detectors. The dataset is comprised of GIS maps and is intended for researchers, government, industry, and anyone for whom knowing when and where lightning is likely to strike is useful information.
Martina Messmer, Santos J. González-Rojí, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2691–2711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Sensitivity experiments with the WRF model are run to find an optimal parameterization setup for precipitation around Mount Kenya at a scale that resolves convection (1 km). Precipitation is compared against many weather stations and gridded observational data sets. Both the temporal correlation of precipitation sums and pattern correlations show that fewer nests lead to a more constrained simulation with higher correlation. The Grell–Freitas cumulus scheme obtains the most accurate results.
Woon Mi Kim and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 887–911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The analysis of the dynamics of western central Mediterranean droughts for 850–2099 CE in the Community Earth System Model indicates that past Mediterranean droughts were driven by the internal variability. This internal variability is more important during the initial years of droughts. During the transition years, the longevity of droughts is defined by the land–atmosphere feedbacks. In the future, this land–atmosphere feedbacks are intensified, causing a constant dryness over the region.
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Compound extremes such as heavy precipitation and extreme winds can lead to large damage. To date it is unclear how well climate models represent such compound extremes. Here we present a new measure to assess differences in the dependence structure of bivariate extremes. This measure is applied to assess differences in the dependence of compound precipitation and wind extremes between three model simulations and one reanalysis dataset in a domain in central Europe.
Yang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, and Jed O. Kaplan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 57–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models predict a shift toward warmer, drier environments in southwestern North America. Under future climate, the two main drivers of dust trends play opposing roles: (1) CO2 fertilization enhances vegetation and, in turn, decreases dust, and (2) increasing land use enhances dust emissions from northern Mexico. In the worst-case scenario, elevated dust concentrations spread widely over the domain by 2100 in spring, suggesting a large climate penalty on air quality and human health.
Emmanuele Russo, Silje Lund Sørland, Ingo Kirchner, Martijn Schaap, Christoph C. Raible, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5779–5797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The parameter space of the COSMO-CLM RCM is investigated for the Central Asia CORDEX domain using a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) with different parameter values. Results show that only a subset of model parameters presents relevant changes in model performance and these changes depend on the considered region and variable: objective calibration methods are highly necessary in this case. Additionally, the results suggest the need for calibrating an RCM when targeting different domains.
George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and Xin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To estimate the effects of human land use activities on the carbon–climate system, a new set of global gridded land use forcing datasets was developed to link historical land use data to eight future scenarios in a standard format required by climate models. This new generation of land use harmonization (LUH2) includes updated inputs, higher spatial resolution, more detailed land use transitions, and the addition of important agricultural management layers; it will be used for CMIP6 simulations.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5007–5027, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a new bias-correction method for precipitation that considers orographic characteristics, which can be used in studies where the latter strongly changes. The three-step correction method consists of a separation into orographic features, correction of low-intensity precipitation, and application of empirical quantile mapping. Seasonal bias induced by the global climate model is fully corrected. Rigorous cross-validations illustrate the method's applicability and robustness.
Matthew J. Rowlinson, Alexandru Rap, Douglas S. Hamilton, Richard J. Pope, Stijn Hantson, Steve R. Arnold, Jed O. Kaplan, Almut Arneth, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Piers M. Forster, and Lars Nieradzik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10937–10951, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas which contributes to anthropogenic climate change; however, the effect of human emissions is uncertain because pre-industrial ozone concentrations are not well understood. We use revised inventories of pre-industrial natural emissions to estimate the human contribution to changes in tropospheric ozone. We find that tropospheric ozone radiative forcing is up to 34 % lower when using improved pre-industrial biomass burning and vegetation emissions.
Paolo Laj, Alessandro Bigi, Clémence Rose, Elisabeth Andrews, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Martine Collaud Coen, Yong Lin, Alfred Wiedensohler, Michael Schulz, John A. Ogren, Markus Fiebig, Jonas Gliß, Augustin Mortier, Marco Pandolfi, Tuukka Petäja, Sang-Woo Kim, Wenche Aas, Jean-Philippe Putaud, Olga Mayol-Bracero, Melita Keywood, Lorenzo Labrador, Pasi Aalto, Erik Ahlberg, Lucas Alados Arboledas, Andrés Alastuey, Marcos Andrade, Begoña Artíñano, Stina Ausmeel, Todor Arsov, Eija Asmi, John Backman, Urs Baltensperger, Susanne Bastian, Olaf Bath, Johan Paul Beukes, Benjamin T. Brem, Nicolas Bukowiecki, Sébastien Conil, Cedric Couret, Derek Day, Wan Dayantolis, Anna Degorska, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Prodromos Fetfatzis, Olivier Favez, Harald Flentje, Maria I. Gini, Asta Gregorič, Martin Gysel-Beer, A. Gannet Hallar, Jenny Hand, Andras Hoffer, Christoph Hueglin, Rakesh K. Hooda, Antti Hyvärinen, Ivo Kalapov, Nikos Kalivitis, Anne Kasper-Giebl, Jeong Eun Kim, Giorgos Kouvarakis, Irena Kranjc, Radovan Krejci, Markku Kulmala, Casper Labuschagne, Hae-Jung Lee, Heikki Lihavainen, Neng-Huei Lin, Gunter Löschau, Krista Luoma, Angela Marinoni, Sebastiao Martins Dos Santos, Frank Meinhardt, Maik Merkel, Jean-Marc Metzger, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, Nhat Anh Nguyen, Jakub Ondracek, Noemi Pérez, Maria Rita Perrone, Jean-Eudes Petit, David Picard, Jean-Marc Pichon, Veronique Pont, Natalia Prats, Anthony Prenni, Fabienne Reisen, Salvatore Romano, Karine Sellegri, Sangeeta Sharma, Gerhard Schauer, Patrick Sheridan, James Patrick Sherman, Maik Schütze, Andreas Schwerin, Ralf Sohmer, Mar Sorribas, Martin Steinbacher, Junying Sun, Gloria Titos, Barbara Toczko, Thomas Tuch, Pierre Tulet, Peter Tunved, Ville Vakkari, Fernando Velarde, Patricio Velasquez, Paolo Villani, Sterios Vratolis, Sheng-Hsiang Wang, Kay Weinhold, Rolf Weller, Margarita Yela, Jesus Yus-Diez, Vladimir Zdimal, Paul Zieger, and Nadezda Zikova
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 4353–4392, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4353-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4353-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper establishes the fiducial reference of the GAW aerosol network providing the fully characterized value chain to the provision of four climate-relevant aerosol properties from ground-based sites. Data from almost 90 stations worldwide are reported for a reference year, 2017, providing a unique and very robust view of the variability of these variables worldwide. Current gaps in the GAW network are analysed and requirements for the Global Climate Monitoring System are proposed.
Yang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, Pengfei Liu, and Jed O. Kaplan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8827–8838, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8827-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8827-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Using a coupled vegetation–fire–climate modeling framework, we show a northward shift in forests and increased lightning fire activity in northern US states, including Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. Our findings suggest a large climate penalty on ecosystem, air quality, visibility, and human health in a region valued for its national forests and parks. The fine-scale smoke PM predictions provided in this study should prove useful to human health and environmental assessments.
Erik Jan Schaffernicht, Patrick Ludwig, and Yaping Shao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4969–4986, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4969-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4969-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a model-based reconstruction of the mineral dust cycle on the regional scale for Europe during the LGM. It establishes a link between the loess distribution in Europe and the prevailing winds during the LGM. In addition to the cyclonic wind regimes, it is the first to reveal the importance of the northeasters and easterlies for dust emission and transport. It shows that a regional weather research and forecasting model can more realistically simulate the LGM dust cycle.
Thomas L. Frölicher, Luca Ramseyer, Christoph C. Raible, Keith B. Rodgers, and John Dunne
Biogeosciences, 17, 2061–2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Here we show that on global scales marine ecosystem drivers such as temperature, pH, O2 and NPP are potentially predictable 3 (at the surface) and more than 10 years (subsurface) in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Our study suggests that physical–biogeochemical forecast systems have considerable potential for use in marine resource management.
Joaquim G. Pinto and Patrick Ludwig
Clim. Past, 16, 611–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-611-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The statistics and characteristics of cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe are analysed for Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate conditions. LGM extreme cyclones were more frequent and characterised by less precipitation and stronger wind speeds than pre-industrial analogues. These results agree with the view of a colder and drier Europe during LGM, with little vegetation and affected by frequent dust storms, leading to the buildup of thick loess deposits in Europe.
Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-José Gaillard, Benjamin D. Stocker, Marc Vander Linden, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Oliver Boles, Pascale Braconnot, Andria Dawson, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kastner, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Erick Robinson, Nicki J. Whitehouse, Marco Madella, and Kathleen D. Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Past Global Changes LandCover6k initiative will use archaeological records to refine scenarios of land use and land cover change through the Holocene to reduce the uncertainties about the impacts of human-induced changes before widespread industrialization. We describe how archaeological data are used to map land use change and how the maps can be evaluated using independent palaeoenvironmental data. We propose simulations to test land use and land cover change impacts on past climates.
Peter Stucki, Paul Froidevaux, Marcelo Zamuriano, Francesco Alessandro Isotta, Martina Messmer, and Andrey Martynov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 35–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In 1876, 1910, and 2005, Switzerland was impacted by extreme rainfall and floods. All events were linked to a Vb cyclone. We test a range of weather model setups (short spinup and standard physics are best) to understand the sensitivity of atmospheric dynamics. The simulated Vb cyclones are (not) well defined for 2005 and 1910 (1876). To reproduce the events, intense moisture flux from the right direction is needed. Storms that slightly deviate from an ideal path produce erroneous precipitation.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Anina Gilgen, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kühn, and Ulrike Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1885–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Using the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAM-SALSA, the effect of humans on European climate in the Roman Empire was quantified. Both land use and novel estimates of anthropogenic aerosol emissions were considered. We conducted simulations with fixed sea-surface temperatures to gain a first impression about the anthropogenic impact. While land use effects induced a regional warming for one of the reconstructions, aerosol emissions led to a cooling associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.
Luca Mathias, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1023–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Convective systems producing severe winds occasionally affect Europe during wintertime and the majority of these storms develop along well-defined cold fronts of extratropical cyclones. However, on 3 January 2014, a storm formed in a postfrontal air mass over western Europe. This study analyses the prevailing environmental conditions and the predictability of this storm. Our results reveal the difficulty of forecasting cold-season convective storms when they are not associated with a cold front.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Florian Ehmele, Patrick Ludwig, Hilke S. Lentink, Fanni D. Kelemen, Martin Kadlec, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-77, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
To quantify the flooding risk for Europe it is necessary to run hydrological models. As input for these models, a consistent stochastic precipitation dataset is needed. In the present study, a combined approach is presented on how to generate such a dataset based on dynamical downscaling and subsequent bias correction. Empirical quantile mapping was identified as suitable bias correction method as it led to improvements for specific severe river floods as well as in a climatological perspective.
Christoph C. Raible, Martina Messmer, Flavio Lehner, Thomas F. Stocker, and Richard Blender
Clim. Past, 14, 1499–1514, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1499-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1499-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones in winter and their characteristics are investigated in depth for the Atlantic European region from 850 to 2100 CE. During the Common Era, cyclone characteristics show pronounced variations mainly caused by internal variability of the coupled climate system. When anthropogenic forcing becomes dominant, a strong increase of extreme cyclone-related precipitation is found due to thermodynamics, though dynamical processes can play an important role during the last millennium.
Martine Collaud Coen, Elisabeth Andrews, Diego Aliaga, Marcos Andrade, Hristo Angelov, Nicolas Bukowiecki, Marina Ealo, Paulo Fialho, Harald Flentje, A. Gannet Hallar, Rakesh Hooda, Ivo Kalapov, Radovan Krejci, Neng-Huei Lin, Angela Marinoni, Jing Ming, Nhat Anh Nguyen, Marco Pandolfi, Véronique Pont, Ludwig Ries, Sergio Rodríguez, Gerhard Schauer, Karine Sellegri, Sangeeta Sharma, Junying Sun, Peter Tunved, Patricio Velasquez, and Dominique Ruffieux
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12289–12313, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12289-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12289-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
High altitude stations are often emphasized as free tropospheric measuring sites but they remain influenced by atmospheric boundary layer. An ABL-TopoIndex is defined from a topography analysis around the stations. This new index allows ranking stations as a function of the ABL influence due to topography or help to choose a new site to sample FT. The ABL-TopoIndex is validated by aerosol optical properties and number concentration measured at 29 high altitude stations of five continents.
Stefan Brönnimann, Jan Rajczak, Erich M. Fischer, Christoph C. Raible, Marco Rohrer, and Christoph Schär
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2047–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation events in Switzerland are expected to become more intense, but the seasonality also changes. Analysing a large set of model simulations, we find that annual maximum rainfall events become less frequent in late summer and more frequent in early summer and early autumn. The seasonality shift is arguably related to summer drying. Results suggest that changes in the seasonal cycle need to be accounted for when preparing for moderately extreme precipitation events.
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Christoph C. Raible, Denica Bozhinova, Olivia Martius, Juan Andrés García Valero, and Juan Pedro Montávez
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2231–2247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2231-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2231-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We carry out and compare two high-resolution simulations of the Alpine region in the period 1979–2005. We aim to improve the understanding of the local mechanisms leading to extreme events in this complex region. We compare both simulations to precipitation observations to assess the model performance, and attribute major biases to either model or boundary conditions. Further, we develop a new bias correction technique to remove systematic errors in simulated precipitation for impact studies.
Emeline Chaste, Martin P. Girardin, Jed O. Kaplan, Jeanne Portier, Yves Bergeron, and Christelle Hély
Biogeosciences, 15, 1273–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1273-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1273-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A vegetation model was used to reconstruct fire activity from 1901 to 2012 in relation to changes in lightning ignition, climate, and vegetation in eastern Canada's boreal forest. The model correctly simulated the history of fire activity. The results showed that fire activity is ignition limited but is also greatly affected by both climate and vegetation. This research aims to develop a vegetation model that could be used to predict the future impacts of climate changes on fire activity.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Philipp S. Sommer and Jed O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3771–3791, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3771-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3771-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present GWGEN, a computer program for converting monthly climate data into estimates of daily weather, using statistical methods. The GWGEN weather generator program was developed using a global database of more than 5 million observations of daily weather, and it simulates daily values of minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and wind speed. GWGEN may be used in a range of applications, for example, in global vegetation, crop, soil erosion, or hydrological models.
Martina Messmer, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 477–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-477-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-477-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Low-pressure systems of type Vb may trigger heavy rainfall events over central Europe. This study aims at analysing the relative role of their moisture sources. For this, a set of sensitivity experiments encompassing changes in soil moisture and Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea SSTs are carried out with WRF. The latter moisture source stands out as the most relevant one. Furthermore, the regions most affected by Vb events in the future might be shifted from the Alps to the Balkan Peninsula.
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Eduardo Zorita, Christoph C. Raible, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 13, 629–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This contribution aims at assessing to what extent the analogue method, a classic technique used in other branches of meteorology and climatology, can be used to perform gridded reconstructions of annual temperature based on the limited information from available but un-calibrated proxies spread across different locations of the world. We conclude that it is indeed possible, albeit with certain limitations that render the method comparable to more classic techniques.
Julien G. Anet, Martin Steinbacher, Laura Gallardo, Patricio A. Velásquez Álvarez, Lukas Emmenegger, and Brigitte Buchmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6477–6492, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6477-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6477-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
There are less long-term surface ozone measurements on the Southern than on the Northern Hemisphere, which makes it difficult to thoroughly understand global ozone chemistry. We have analyzed a new, 20-year-long ozone dataset measured at 2200 m asl at El Tololo, Chile, and show that the annual cycle of ozone is mainly driven by ozone transport from the stratosphere to the troposphere. As well, we illustrate that the timing of the annual maximum is regressing to earlier in the year.
Sam S. Rabin, Joe R. Melton, Gitta Lasslop, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Jed O. Kaplan, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Daniel S. Ward, Chao Yue, Vivek K. Arora, Thomas Hickler, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Lars Nieradzik, Allan Spessa, Gerd A. Folberth, Tim Sheehan, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Stephen Sitch, Sandy Harrison, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global vegetation models are important tools for understanding how the Earth system will change in the future, and fire is a critical process to include. A number of different methods have been developed to represent vegetation burning. This paper describes the protocol for the first systematic comparison of global fire models, which will allow the community to explore various drivers and evaluate what mechanisms are important for improving performance. It also includes equations for all models.
Stefan Brönnimann, Abdul Malik, Alexander Stickler, Martin Wegmann, Christoph C. Raible, Stefan Muthers, Julien Anet, Eugene Rozanov, and Werner Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15529–15543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15529-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15529-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is a wind oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere. Effects on climate have been found, which is relevant for seasonal forecasts. However, up to now only relatively short records were available, and even within these the climate imprints were intermittent. Here we analyze a 108-year long reconstruction as well as four 405-year long simulations. We confirm most of the claimed QBO effects on climate, but they are small, which explains apparently variable effects.
Chantal Camenisch, Kathrin M. Keller, Melanie Salvisberg, Benjamin Amann, Martin Bauch, Sandro Blumer, Rudolf Brázdil, Stefan Brönnimann, Ulf Büntgen, Bruce M. S. Campbell, Laura Fernández-Donado, Dominik Fleitmann, Rüdiger Glaser, Fidel González-Rouco, Martin Grosjean, Richard C. Hoffmann, Heli Huhtamaa, Fortunat Joos, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Flavio Lehner, Jürg Luterbacher, Nicolas Maughan, Raphael Neukom, Theresa Novy, Kathleen Pribyl, Christoph C. Raible, Dirk Riemann, Maximilian Schuh, Philip Slavin, Johannes P. Werner, and Oliver Wetter
Clim. Past, 12, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Throughout the last millennium, several cold periods occurred which affected humanity. Here, we investigate an exceptionally cold decade during the 15th century. The cold conditions challenged the food production and led to increasing food prices and a famine in parts of Europe. In contrast to periods such as the “Year Without Summer” after the eruption of Tambora, these extreme climatic conditions seem to have occurred by chance and in relation to the internal variability of the climate system.
Stefan Muthers, Christoph C. Raible, Eugene Rozanov, and Thomas F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 877–892, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-877-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important oceanic circulation system which transports large amounts of heat from the tropics to the north. This circulation is strengthened when less solar irradiance reaches the Earth, e.g. due to reduced solar activity or geoengineering techniques. In climate models, however, this response is overestimated when chemistry–climate interactions and the following shift in the atmospheric circulation systems are not considered.
Niklaus Merz, Andreas Born, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 12, 2011–2031, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2011-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2011-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The last (Eemian) interglacial is studied with a global climate model focusing on Greenland and the adjacent high latitudes. A set of model experiments demonstrates the crucial role of changes in sea ice and sea surface temperatures for the magnitude of Eemian atmospheric warming. Greenland temperatures are found highly sensitive to sea ice changes in the Nordic Seas but rather insensitive to changes in the Labrador Sea. This behavior has important implications for Greenland ice core signals.
Amaelle Landais, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Emilie Capron, Petra M. Langebroek, Pepijn Bakker, Emma J. Stone, Niklaus Merz, Christoph C. Raible, Hubertus Fischer, Anaïs Orsi, Frédéric Prié, Bo Vinther, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
Clim. Past, 12, 1933–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The last lnterglacial (LIG; 116 000 to 129 000 years before present) surface temperature at the upstream Greenland NEEM deposition site is estimated to be warmer by +7 to +11 °C compared to the preindustrial period. We show that under such warm temperatures, melting of snow probably led to a significant surface melting. There is a paradox between the extent of the Greenland ice sheet during the LIG and the strong warming during this period that models cannot solve.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
M. Clare Smith, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, Jed O. Kaplan, and Nicholas P. Branch
Clim. Past, 12, 923–941, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We used climate modelling to estimate the biogeophysical impacts of agriculture on the climate over the last 8000 years of the Holocene. Our results show statistically significant surface temperature changes (mainly cooling) from as early as 7000 BP in the JJA season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3000 BP. The changes were greatest in the areas of land use change but were also seen in other areas. Precipitation was also affected, particularly in Europe, India, and the ITCZ region.
Zhen Zhang, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Jed O. Kaplan, and Benjamin Poulter
Biogeosciences, 13, 1387–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1387-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1387-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates improvements and uncertainties associated with estimating global inundated area and wetland CH4 emissions using TOPMODEL. Different topographic information and catchment aggregation schemes are evaluated against seasonal and permanently inundated wetland observations. Reducing uncertainty in prognostic wetland dynamics modeling must take into account forcing data as well as topographic scaling schemes.
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, C. C. Raible, and S. Dierer
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3349–3363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3349-2015, 2015
S. Muthers, F. Arfeuille, C. C. Raible, and E. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11461–11476, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11461-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11461-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
After volcanic eruptions different radiative and chemical processes take place in the stratosphere which perturb the ozone layer and cause pronounced dynamical changes. In idealized chemistry-climate model simulations the importance of these processes and the modulating role of the climate state is analysed. The chemical effect strongly differs between a preindustrial and present-day climate, but the effect on the dynamics is weak. Radiative processes dominate the dynamics in all climate states.
M. Messmer, J. J. Gómez-Navarro, and C. C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-541-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-541-2015, 2015
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, O. Bothe, S. Wagner, E. Zorita, J. P. Werner, J. Luterbacher, C. C. Raible, and J. P Montávez
Clim. Past, 11, 1077–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, 2015
M. J. McGrath, S. Luyssaert, P. Meyfroidt, J. O. Kaplan, M. Bürgi, Y. Chen, K. Erb, U. Gimmi, D. McInerney, K. Naudts, J. Otto, F. Pasztor, J. Ryder, M.-J. Schelhaas, and A. Valade
Biogeosciences, 12, 4291–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4291-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4291-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Studying century-scale ecological processes and their legacy effects requires taking forest management into account. In this study we produce spatially and temporally explicit maps of European forest management from 1600 to 2010. The most important changes between 1600 and 2010 are an increase of 593 000km2 in conifers at the expense of deciduous forest, a 612 000km2 decrease in unmanaged forest, a 152 000km2 decrease in coppice management and a 818 000km2 increase in high stand management.
P. Achakulwisut, L. J. Mickley, L. T. Murray, A. P. K. Tai, J. O. Kaplan, and B. Alexander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7977–7998, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7977-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7977-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The atmosphere’s oxidative capacity determines the lifetime of many trace gases important to climate, chemistry, and human health. Yet uncertainties remain about its past variations, its controlling factors, and the radiative forcing of short-lived species it influences. To reduce these uncertainties, we must better quantify the natural emissions and chemical reaction mechanisms of organic compounds in the atmosphere, which play a role in governing the oxidative capacity.
F. Lehner, F. Joos, C. C. Raible, J. Mignot, A. Born, K. M. Keller, and T. F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 411–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first last-millennium simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) including an interactive carbon cycle in both ocean and land component. Volcanic eruptions emerge as the strongest forcing factor for the preindustrial climate and carbon cycle. We estimate the climate-carbon-cycle feedback in CESM to be at the lower bounds of empirical estimates (1.3ppm/°C). The time of emergence for interannual global land and ocean carbon uptake rates are 1947 and 1877, respectively.
D. Zanchettin, O. Bothe, F. Lehner, P. Ortega, C. C. Raible, and D. Swingedouw
Clim. Past, 11, 939–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-939-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-939-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A discrepancy exists between reconstructed and simulated Pacific North American pattern (PNA) features during the early 19th century. Pseudo-reconstructions demonstrate that the available PNA reconstruction is potentially skillful but also potentially affected by a number of sources of uncertainty and deficiencies especially at multidecadal and centennial timescales. Simulations and reconstructions can be reconciled by attributing the reconstructed PNA features to internal variability.
T. J. Bohn, J. R. Melton, A. Ito, T. Kleinen, R. Spahni, B. D. Stocker, B. Zhang, X. Zhu, R. Schroeder, M. V. Glagolev, S. Maksyutov, V. Brovkin, G. Chen, S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, A. Gallego-Sala, K. C. McDonald, M.A. Rawlins, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, Q. Zhuang, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 12, 3321–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated 21 forward models and 5 inversions over western Siberia in terms of CH4 emissions and simulated wetland areas and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. In addition to assembling a definitive collection of methane emissions estimates for the region, we were able to identify the types of wetland maps and model features necessary for accurate simulations of high-latitude wetlands.
A. Mauri, B. A. S. Davis, P. M. Collins, and J. O. Kaplan
Clim. Past, 10, 1925–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1925-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1925-2014, 2014
S. Muthers, J. G. Anet, A. Stenke, C. C. Raible, E. Rozanov, S. Brönnimann, T. Peter, F. X. Arfeuille, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2157–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, 2014
K. M. Keller, F. Joos, and C. C. Raible
Biogeosciences, 11, 3647–3659, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, 2014
N. Merz, A. Born, C. C. Raible, H. Fischer, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 10, 1221–1238, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1221-2014, 2014
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. V. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, W. Schmutz, and T. Peter
Clim. Past, 10, 921–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, 2014
L. T. Murray, L. J. Mickley, J. O. Kaplan, E. D. Sofen, M. Pfeiffer, and B. Alexander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3589–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3589-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3589-2014, 2014
G. Strandberg, E. Kjellström, A. Poska, S. Wagner, M.-J. Gaillard, A.-K. Trondman, A. Mauri, B. A. S. Davis, J. O. Kaplan, H. J. B. Birks, A. E. Bjune, R. Fyfe, T. Giesecke, L. Kalnina, M. Kangur, W. O. van der Knaap, U. Kokfelt, P. Kuneš, M. Lata\l owa, L. Marquer, F. Mazier, A. B. Nielsen, B. Smith, H. Seppä, and S. Sugita
Clim. Past, 10, 661–680, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, 2014
C. C. Raible, F. Lehner, J. F. González-Rouco, and L. Fernández-Donado
Clim. Past, 10, 537–550, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-537-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-537-2014, 2014
T. Hoffmann, S. M. Mudd, K. van Oost, G. Verstraeten, G. Erkens, A. Lang, H. Middelkoop, J. Boyle, J. O. Kaplan, J. Willenbring, and R. Aalto
Earth Surf. Dynam., 1, 45–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-1-45-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-1-45-2013, 2013
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, T. Peter, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10951–10967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, 2013
N. Merz, C. C. Raible, H. Fischer, V. Varma, M. Prange, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 9, 2433–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, 2013
M. Scherstjanoi, J. O. Kaplan, E. Thürig, and H. Lischke
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1517–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1517-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1517-2013, 2013
M. L. R. Liberato, J. G. Pinto, R. M. Trigo, P. Ludwig, P. Ordóñez, D. Yuen, and I. F. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2239–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, 2013
V. Beck, C. Gerbig, T. Koch, M. M. Bela, K. M. Longo, S. R. Freitas, J. O. Kaplan, C. Prigent, P. Bergamaschi, and M. Heimann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7961–7982, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7961-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7961-2013, 2013
M. Pfeiffer, A. Spessa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 643–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-643-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-643-2013, 2013
R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 617–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, 2013
J. R. Melton, R. Wania, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, D. J. Beerling, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, P. O. Hopcroft, D. P. Lettenmaier, W. J. Riley, J. S. Singarayer, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, S. Zürcher, V. Brovkin, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 10, 753–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Pleistocene
Last Glacial Maximum climate and atmospheric circulation over the Australian region from climate models
Uncertainties originating from GCM downscaling and bias correction with application to the MIS-11c Greenland Ice Sheet
Surface mass balance and climate of the Last Glacial Maximum Northern Hemisphere ice sheets: simulations with CESM2.1
A transient coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulation of the past 3 million years
Atmosphere–cryosphere interactions during the last phase of the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) in the European Alps
Summer surface air temperature proxies point to near-sea-ice-free conditions in the Arctic at 127 ka
On the importance of moisture conveyor belts from the tropical eastern Pacific for wetter conditions in the Atacama Desert during the mid-Pliocene
Modeled storm surge changes in a warmer world: the Last Interglacial
No changes in overall AMOC strength in interglacial PMIP4 time slices
The role of ice-sheet topography in the Alpine hydro-climate at glacial times
Simulating glacial dust changes in the Southern Hemisphere using ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3
Climate and ice sheet evolutions from the last glacial maximum to the pre-industrial period with an ice-sheet–climate coupled model
Simulated stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)
Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations
Simulating Marine Isotope Stage 7 with a coupled climate–ice sheet model
Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models
An empirical evaluation of bias correction methods for palaeoclimate simulations
Hypersensitivity of glacial summer temperatures in Siberia
Distorted Pacific–North American teleconnection at the Last Glacial Maximum
Understanding the Australian Monsoon change during the Last Glacial Maximum with a multi-model ensemble
Effect of high dust amount on surface temperature during the Last Glacial Maximum: a modelling study using MIROC-ESM
The role of regional feedbacks in glacial inception on Baffin Island: the interaction of ice flow and meteorology
Quantifying the influence of the terrestrial biosphere on glacial–interglacial climate dynamics
Intra-interglacial climate variability: model simulations of Marine Isotope Stages 1, 5, 11, 13, and 15
A GCM comparison of Pleistocene super-interglacial periods in relation to Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Arctic Russia
Global sensitivity analysis of the Indian monsoon during the Pleistocene
Interaction of ice sheets and climate during the past 800 000 years
Simulating last interglacial climate with NorESM: role of insolation and greenhouse gases in the timing of peak warmth
Impact of geomagnetic excursions on atmospheric chemistry and dynamics
Assessing the impact of Laurentide Ice Sheet topography on glacial climate
Interdependence of the growth of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glaciation: the role of atmospheric circulation
Different ocean states and transient characteristics in Last Glacial Maximum simulations and implications for deglaciation
Why could ice ages be unpredictable?
Assessing the impact of late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions on global vegetation and climate
The last interglacial (Eemian) climate simulated by LOVECLIM and CCSM3
LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?
Tropical vegetation response to Heinrich Event 1 as simulated with the UVic ESCM and CCSM3
Influence of Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions on the global water isotope distribution in an atmospheric general circulation model
A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum
Modelling snow accumulation on Greenland in Eemian, glacial inception, and modern climates in a GCM
Modelling large-scale ice-sheet–climate interactions following glacial inception
Sensitivity of the North Atlantic climate to Greenland Ice Sheet melting during the Last Interglacial
The impact of different glacial boundary conditions on atmospheric dynamics and precipitation in the North Atlantic region
Present and LGM permafrost from climate simulations: contribution of statistical downscaling
The key role of topography in altering North Atlantic atmospheric circulation during the last glacial period
Uncertainties in modelling CH4 emissions from northern wetlands in glacial climates: the role of vegetation parameters
Modeling Mediterranean Ocean climate of the Last Glacial Maximum
A comparison of climate simulations for the last glacial maximum with three different versions of the ECHAM model and implications for summer-green tree refugia
Changes in atmospheric variability in a glacial climate and the impacts on proxy data: a model intercomparison
Yanxuan Du, Josephine R. Brown, and J. M. Kale Sniderman
Clim. Past, 20, 393–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-393-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-393-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides insights into regional Australian climate variations (temperature, precipitation, wind, and atmospheric circulation) during the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 kyr ago) and the interconnections between climate variables in different seasons from climate model simulations. Model results are evaluated and compared with available palaeoclimate proxy records. Results show model responses diverge widely in both the tropics and mid-latitudes in the Australian region.
Brian R. Crow, Lev Tarasov, Michael Schulz, and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 20, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An abnormally warm period around 400,000 years ago is thought to have resulted in a large melt event for the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using a sequence of climate model simulations connected to an ice model, we estimate a 50 % melt of Greenland compared to today. Importantly, we explore how the exact methodology of connecting the temperatures and precipitation from the climate model to the ice sheet model can influence these results and show that common methods could introduce errors.
Sarah L. Bradley, Raymond Sellevold, Michele Petrini, Miren Vizcaino, Sotiria Georgiou, Jiang Zhu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Marcus Lofverstrom
Clim. Past, 20, 211–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was the most recent period with large ice sheets in Europe and North America. We provide a detailed analysis of surface mass and energy components for two time periods that bracket the LGM: 26 and 21 ka BP. We use an earth system model which has been adopted for modern ice sheets. We find that all Northern Hemisphere ice sheets have a positive surface mass balance apart from the British and Irish ice sheets and the North American ice sheet complex.
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, and Jyoti Jadhav
Clim. Past, 19, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To quantify the sensitivity of the earth system to orbital-scale forcings, we conducted an unprecedented quasi-continuous coupled general climate model simulation with the Community Earth System Model, which covers the climatic history of the past 3 million years. This study could stimulate future transient paleo-climate model simulations and perspectives to further highlight and document the effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the broader paleo-climatic context.
Costanza Del Gobbo, Renato R. Colucci, Giovanni Monegato, Manja Žebre, and Filippo Giorgi
Clim. Past, 19, 1805–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied atmosphere–cryosphere interaction during the last phase of the Last Glacial Maximum in the Alpine region, using a high-resolution regional climate model. We analysed the climate south and north of the Alps, using a detailed map of the Alpine equilibrium line altitude (ELA) to study the mechanism that sustained the Alpine glaciers at 21 ka. The Genoa low and a mild Mediterranean Sea led to frequent snowfall in the southern Alps, thus preserving the glaciers and lowering the ELA.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Vallet-Malmierca, Agatha M. de Boer, and Marie Sicard
Clim. Past, 19, 883–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is not known if the Last Interglacial (LIG) experienced Arctic summers that were sea ice free: models show a wide spread in LIG Arctic temperature and sea ice results. Evaluation against sea ice markers is hampered by few observations. Here, an assessment of 11 climate model simulations against summer temperatures shows that the most skilful models have a 74 %–79 % reduction in LIG sea ice. The measurements of LIG areas indicate a likely mix of ice-free and near-ice-free LIG summers.
Mark Reyers, Stephanie Fiedler, Patrick Ludwig, Christoph Böhm, Volker Wennrich, and Yaping Shao
Clim. Past, 19, 517–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we performed high-resolution climate model simulations for the hyper-arid Atacama Desert for the mid-Pliocene (3.2 Ma). The aim is to uncover the atmospheric processes that are involved in the enhancement of strong rainfall events during this period. We find that strong upper-level moisture fluxes (so-called moisture conveyor belts) originating in the tropical eastern Pacific are the main driver for increased rainfall in the mid-Pliocene.
Paolo Scussolini, Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Alessio Rovere, Pepijn Bakker, Dim Coumou, Hans Renssen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Clim. Past, 19, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct sea level extremes due to storm surges in a past warmer climate. We employ a novel combination of paleoclimate modeling and global ocean hydrodynamic modeling. We find that during the Last Interglacial, about 127 000 years ago, seasonal sea level extremes were indeed significantly different – higher or lower – on long stretches of the global coast. These changes are associated with different patterns of atmospheric storminess linked with meridional shifts in wind bands.
Zhiyi Jiang, Chris Brierley, David Thornalley, and Sophie Sax
Clim. Past, 19, 107–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-107-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work looks at a series of model simulations of two past warm climates. We focus on the deep overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. We show that there are no robust changes in the overall strength of the circulation. We also show that the circulation hardly plays a role in changes in the surface climate across the globe.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the sensitivity of the glacial Alpine hydro-climate to northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet changes. We perform sensitivity simulations of up to 2 km horizontal resolution over the Alps for glacial periods. The findings demonstrate that northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet topography are important role in regulating the Alpine hydro-climate and permits a better understanding of the Alpine precipitation patterns at glacial times.
Stephan Krätschmer, Michèlle van der Does, Frank Lamy, Gerrit Lohmann, Christoph Völker, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 18, 67–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use an atmospheric model coupled to an aerosol model to investigate the global mineral dust cycle with a focus on the Southern Hemisphere for warmer and colder climate states and compare our results to observational data. Our findings suggest that Australia is the predominant source of dust deposited over Antarctica during the last glacial maximum. In addition, we find that the southward transport of dust from all sources to Antarctica happens at lower altitudes in colder climates.
Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Christophe Dumas, Nathaëlle Bouttes, and Fanny Lhardy
Clim. Past, 17, 2179–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we discuss results obtained with a set of coupled ice-sheet–climate model experiments for the last 26 kyrs. The model displays a large sensitivity of the oceanic circulation to the amount of the freshwater flux resulting from ice sheet melting. Ice sheet geometry changes alone are not enough to lead to abrupt climate events, and rapid warming at high latitudes is here only reported during abrupt oceanic circulation recoveries that occurred when accounting for freshwater flux.
Frerk Pöppelmeier, Jeemijn Scheen, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 17, 615–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) critically depends on its mean state. We simulate the response of the AMOC to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations under different glacial boundary conditions. We find that a closed Bering Strait greatly increases the AMOC's sensitivity to freshwater hosing. Further, the shift from mono- to bistability strongly depends on the chosen boundary conditions, with weaker circulation states exhibiting more abrupt transitions.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, and Chris M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 16, 2325–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The simulations for the past climate can inform us about the performance of climate models in different climate scenarios. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), when the CO2 level was comparable to today. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in the model simulations and imply that we must be careful when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
Dipayan Choudhury, Axel Timmermann, Fabian Schloesser, Malte Heinemann, and David Pollard
Clim. Past, 16, 2183–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2183-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2183-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our study is the first study to conduct transient simulations over MIS 7, using a 3-D coupled climate–ice sheet model with interactive ice sheets in both hemispheres. We find glacial inceptions to be more sensitive to orbital variations, whereas glacial terminations need the concerted action of both orbital and CO2 forcings. We highlight the issue of multiple equilibria and an instability due to stationary-wave–topography feedback that can trigger unrealistic North American ice sheet growth.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Robert Beyer, Mario Krapp, and Andrea Manica
Clim. Past, 16, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1493-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Even the most sophisticated global climate models are known to have significant biases in the way they simulate the climate system. Correcting model biases is therefore essential for creating realistic reconstructions of past climate that can be used, for example, to study long-term ecological dynamics. Here, we evaluated three widely used bias correction methods by means of a global dataset of empirical temperature and precipitation records from the last 125 000 years.
Pepijn Bakker, Irina Rogozhina, Ute Merkel, and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 16, 371–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-371-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-371-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Northeastern Siberia is currently known for its harsh cold climate, but remarkably it did not experience large-scale glaciation during the last ice age. We show that the region is also exceptional in climate models. As a result of subtle changes in model setup, climate models show a strong divergence in simulated glacial summer temperatures that is ultimately driven by changes in the circumpolar atmospheric stationary wave pattern and associated northward heat transport to northeastern Siberia.
Yongyun Hu, Yan Xia, Zhengyu Liu, Yuchen Wang, Zhengyao Lu, and Tao Wang
Clim. Past, 16, 199–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-199-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-199-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper shows, using climate simulations, that the Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection was distorted or completely broken at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The results suggest that ENSO would have little direct impact on North American climates at the LGM.
Mi Yan, Bin Wang, Jian Liu, Axing Zhu, Liang Ning, and Jian Cao
Clim. Past, 14, 2037–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2037-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2037-2018, 2018
Rumi Ohgaito, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Ryouta O'ishi, Toshihiko Takemura, Akinori Ito, Tomohiro Hajima, Shingo Watanabe, and Michio Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 14, 1565–1581, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1565-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1565-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The behaviour of dust in terms of climate can be investigated using past climate. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21000 years before present) is known to be dustier. We investigated the impact of plausible dust distribution on the climate of the LGM using an Earth system model and found that the higher dust load results in less cooling over the polar regions. The main finding is that radiative perturbation by the high dust loading does not necessarily cool the surface surrounding Antarctica.
Leah Birch, Timothy Cronin, and Eli Tziperman
Clim. Past, 14, 1441–1462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1441-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1441-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the regional dynamics at the beginning of the last ice age, using a nested configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a simple ice flow model. We find that ice sheet height causes a negative feedback on continued ice growth by interacting with the atmospheric circulation, causing warming on Baffin Island, and inhibiting the initiation of the last ice age. We conclude that processes at larger scales are needed to overcome the regional warming effect.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Andy Ridgwell, Joy Singarayer, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 13, 1381–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1381-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1381-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first model analysis using a fully coupled dynamic atmosphere–ocean–vegetation GCM over the last 120 kyr that quantifies the net effect of vegetation on climate. This analysis shows that over the whole period the biogeophysical effect (albedo, evapotranspiration) is dominant, and that the biogeochemical impacts may have a lower possible range than typically estimated. This emphasises the temporal reliance of the balance between biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects.
Rima Rachmayani, Matthias Prange, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 12, 677–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-677-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-677-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A set of 13 interglacial time slice experiments was carried out using a CCSM3-DGVM to study global climate variability between and within the Quaternary interglaciations of MIS 1, 5, 11, 13, and 15. Seasonal surface temperature anomalies can be explained by local insolation anomalies induced by the astronomical forcing in most regions and by GHG forcing at high latitudes and early Bruhnes interglacials. However, climate feedbacks may modify the surface temperature response in specific regions.
A. J. Coletti, R. M. DeConto, J. Brigham-Grette, and M. Melles
Clim. Past, 11, 979–989, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-979-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-979-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Evidence from Pleistocene sediments suggest that the Arctic's climate went through multiple sudden transitions, warming by 2-4 °C (compared to preindustrial times), and stayed warm for hundreds to thousands of years. A climate modelling study of these events suggests that the Arctic's climate and landscape drastically changed, transforming a cold and barren landscape as we know today to a warm, lush, evergreen and boreal forest landscape only seen in the modern midlatitudes.
P. A. Araya-Melo, M. Crucifix, and N. Bounceur
Clim. Past, 11, 45–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-45-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-45-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
By using a statistical tool termed emulator, we study the sensitivity of the Indian monsoon during the the Pleistocene. The originality of the present work is to consider, as inputs, several elements of the climate forcing that have varied in the past, and then use the emulator as a method to quantify the link between forcing variability and climate variability. The methodology described here may naturally be applied to other regions of interest.
L. B. Stap, R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, R. Bintanja, and L. J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 10, 2135–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, 2014
P.M. Langebroek and K. H. Nisancioglu
Clim. Past, 10, 1305–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1305-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1305-2014, 2014
I. Suter, R. Zech, J. G. Anet, and T. Peter
Clim. Past, 10, 1183–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1183-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1183-2014, 2014
D. J. Ullman, A. N. LeGrande, A. E. Carlson, F. S. Anslow, and J. M. Licciardi
Clim. Past, 10, 487–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, 2014
P. Beghin, S. Charbit, C. Dumas, M. Kageyama, D. M. Roche, and C. Ritz
Clim. Past, 10, 345–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-345-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-345-2014, 2014
X. Zhang, G. Lohmann, G. Knorr, and X. Xu
Clim. Past, 9, 2319–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2319-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2319-2013, 2013
M. Crucifix
Clim. Past, 9, 2253–2267, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2253-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2253-2013, 2013
M.-O. Brault, L. A. Mysak, H. D. Matthews, and C. T. Simmons
Clim. Past, 9, 1761–1771, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1761-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1761-2013, 2013
I. Nikolova, Q. Yin, A. Berger, U. K. Singh, and M. P. Karami
Clim. Past, 9, 1789–1806, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1789-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1789-2013, 2013
K. Saito, T. Sueyoshi, S. Marchenko, V. Romanovsky, B. Otto-Bliesner, J. Walsh, N. Bigelow, A. Hendricks, and K. Yoshikawa
Clim. Past, 9, 1697–1714, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013, 2013
D. Handiani, A. Paul, M. Prange, U. Merkel, L. Dupont, and X. Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 1683–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1683-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1683-2013, 2013
T. Tharammal, A. Paul, U. Merkel, and D. Noone
Clim. Past, 9, 789–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-789-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-789-2013, 2013
J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves
Clim. Past, 9, 367–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-367-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-367-2013, 2013
H. J. Punge, H. Gallée, M. Kageyama, and G. Krinner
Clim. Past, 8, 1801–1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1801-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1801-2012, 2012
J. M. Gregory, O. J. H. Browne, A. J. Payne, J. K. Ridley, and I. C. Rutt
Clim. Past, 8, 1565–1580, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1565-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1565-2012, 2012
P. Bakker, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, and H. Renssen
Clim. Past, 8, 995–1009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-995-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-995-2012, 2012
D. Hofer, C. C. Raible, A. Dehnert, and J. Kuhlemann
Clim. Past, 8, 935–949, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-935-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-935-2012, 2012
G. Levavasseur, M. Vrac, D. M. Roche, D. Paillard, A. Martin, and J. Vandenberghe
Clim. Past, 7, 1225–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1225-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1225-2011, 2011
F. S. R. Pausata, C. Li, J. J. Wettstein, M. Kageyama, and K. H. Nisancioglu
Clim. Past, 7, 1089–1101, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1089-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1089-2011, 2011
C. Berrittella and J. van Huissteden
Clim. Past, 7, 1075–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1075-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1075-2011, 2011
U. Mikolajewicz
Clim. Past, 7, 161–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-161-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-161-2011, 2011
K. Arpe, S. A. G. Leroy, and U. Mikolajewicz
Clim. Past, 7, 91–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-91-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-91-2011, 2011
F. S. R. Pausata, C. Li, J. J. Wettstein, K. H. Nisancioglu, and D. S. Battisti
Clim. Past, 5, 489–502, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-489-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-489-2009, 2009
Cited articles
Alsos, I. G., Sjögren, P., Brown, A. G., Gielly, L., Merkel, M. K. F.,
Paus, A., Lammers, Y., Edwards, M. E., Alm, T., Leng, M., Goslar, T.,
Langdon, C. T., Bakke, J., and van der Bilt, W. G. M.: Last Glacial
Maximum environmental conditions at Andøya, northern Norway;
evidence for a northern ice-edge ecological
“hotspot”, Quaternary Sci. Rev.,
239, 106364, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106364, 2020. a
Álvarez-Solas, J., Montoya, M., Ritz, C., Ramstein, G., Charbit, S., Dumas, C., Nisancioglu, K., Dokken, T., and Ganopolski, A.: Heinrich event 1: an example of dynamical ice-sheet reaction to oceanic changes, Clim. Past, 7, 1297–1306, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1297-2011, 2011. a
Baena Preysler, J., Carrión Santafé, E., Torres Navas, C., and
Vaquero Rodríguez, M.: Mousterian inside the upper Paleolithic? The
last interval of El Esquilleu (Cantabria, Spain) sequence,
Quatern. Int., 508, 153–163, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2018.11.015, 2019. a
Bartlein, P. J., Harrison, S. P., Brewer, S., Connor, S., Davis, B. A. S.,
Gajewski, K., Guiot, J., Harrison-Prentice, T. I., Henderson, A., Peyron, O.,
Prentice, I. C., Scholze, M., Seppä, H., Shuman, B., Sugita, S.,
Thompson, R. S., Viau, A. E., Williams, J., and Wu, H.: Pollen-based
continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: a global synthesis,
Clim. Dynam., 37, 775–802, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0904-1, 2011. a, b, c, d, e
Beghin, P., Charbit, S., Kageyama, M., Combourieu-Nebout, N., Hatté, C.,
Dumas, C., and Peterschmitt, J.-Y.: What drives LGM precipitation over the
western Mediterranean? A study focused on the Iberian Peninsula and
northern Morocco, Clim. Dynam., 46, 2611–2631,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2720-0, 2016. a, b, c, d
Berger, A.: Long-Term Variations of Daily Insolation and Quaternary
Climatic Changes, J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 2362–2367,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035<2362:LTVODI>2.0.CO;2, 1978. a
Braconnot, P., Otto-Bliesner, B., Harrison, S., Joussaume, S., Peterchmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Crucifix, M., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, Th., Hewitt, C. D., Kageyama, M., Kitoh, A., Laîné, A., Loutre, M.-F., Marti, O., Merkel, U., Ramstein, G., Valdes, P., Weber, S. L., Yu, Y., and Zhao, Y.: Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum – Part 1: experiments and large-scale features, Clim. Past, 3, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-261-2007, 2007. a, b, c
Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P. J., Masson-Delmotte,
V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Zhao, Y.: Evaluation of climate
models using palaeoclimatic data, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 417–424,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1456, 2012. a
Broccoli, A. J. and Manabe, S.: The influence of continental ice, atmospheric
CO2, and land albedo on the climate of the last glacial maximum, Clim. Dynam., 1, 87–99, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01054478, 1987. a
Brugger, S. O., Gobet, E., Blunier, T., Morales-Molino, C., Lotter, A. F.,
Fischer, H., Schwikowski, M., and Tinner, W.: Palynological insights into
global change impacts on Arctic vegetation, fire, and pollution recorded in
Central Greenland ice, Holocene, 29, 1189–1197,
https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683619838039, 2019. a
Burke, A., Levavasseur, G., James, P. M. A., Guiducci, D., Izquierdo, M. A.,
Bourgeon, L., Kageyama, M., Ramstein, G., and Vrac, M.: Exploring the impact
of climate variability during the Last Glacial Maximum on the pattern
of human occupation of Iberia, J. Hum. Evol., 73, 35–46,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhevol.2014.06.003, 2014. a
Cao, J., Wang, B., and Liu, J.: Attribution of the Last Glacial Maximum
climate formation, Clim. Dynam., 53, 1661–1679,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04711-6, 2019. a
Casanueva, A., Kotlarski, S., Herrera, S., Fernández, J., Gutiérrez,
J. M., Boberg, F., Colette, A., Christensen, O. B., Goergen, K., Jacob, D.,
Keuler, K., Nikulin, G., Teichmann, C., and Vautard, R.: Daily precipitation
statistics in a EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble: Added value of raw and
bias-corrected high-resolution simulations, Clim. Dynam., 47, 719–737,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2865-x, 2016. a
Chen, W., Zhu, D., Ciais, P., Huang, C., Viovy, N., and Kageyama, M.: Response of vegetation cover to CO2 and climate changes between Last Glacial
Maximum and pre-industrial period in a dynamic global vegetation model,
Quaternary Sci. Rev., 218, 293–305,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.06.003, 2019. a
Clark, P. U., Dyke, A. S., Shakun, J. D., Carlson, A. E., Clark, J., Wohlfarth, B., Mitrovica, J. X., Hostetler, S. W., and McCabe, A. M.: The Last
Glacial Maximum, Science, 325, 710–714, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1172873,
2009. a, b
Crowley, T. J. and Baum, S. K.: Effect of vegetation on an ice-age climate
model simulation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 102,
16463–16480, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD00536, 1997. a
Davin, E. L., Rechid, D., Breil, M., Cardoso, R. M., Coppola, E., Hoffmann, P., Jach, L. L., Katragkou, E., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Radtke, K., Raffa, M., Soares, P. M. M., Sofiadis, G., Strada, S., Strandberg, G., Tölle, M. H., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Biogeophysical impacts of forestation in Europe: first results from the LUCAS (Land Use and Climate Across Scales) regional climate model intercomparison, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 183–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-183-2020, 2020. a
Davis, B. A. S., Collins, P. M., and Kaplan, J. O.: The age and post-glacial
development of the modern European vegetation: a plant functional approach
based on pollen data, Veg. Hist. Archaeobot., 24, 303–317,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00334-014-0476-9, 2015. a
Demory, M.-E., Berthou, S., Fernández, J., Sørland, S. L., Brogli, R., Roberts, M. J., Beyerle, U., Seddon, J., Haarsma, R., Schär, C., Buonomo, E., Christensen, O. B., Ciarlo ̀, J. M., Fealy, R., Nikulin, G., Peano, D., Putrasahan, D., Roberts, C. D., Senan, R., Steger, C., Teichmann, C., and Vautard, R.: European daily precipitation according to EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) and high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5485–5506, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020, 2020. a
de Vernal, A., Rosell-Melé, A., Kucera, M., Hillaire-Marcel, C., Eynaud,
F., Weinelt, M., Dokken, T., and Kageyama, M.: Comparing proxies for the
reconstruction of LGM sea-surface conditions in the northern North
Atlantic, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 25, 2820–2834,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.06.006, 2006. a
Di Luca, A., de Elía, R., and Laprise, R.: Potential for added value in
precipitation simulated by high-resolution nested Regional Climate
Models and observations, Clim. Dynam., 38, 1229–1247,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1068-3, 2012. a
Ehlers, J., Gibbard, P., and Hughes, P.: Quaternary glaciations-extent and
chronology: a closer look, vol. 15, Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 2011. a
Finlayson, C.: Neanderthals and modern humans: an ecological and evolutionary
perspective, vol. 38, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511542374, 2004. a
Finlayson, C.: On the importance of coastal areas in the survival of
Neanderthal populations during the Late Pleistocene, Quaternary Sci.
Rev., 27, 2246–2252, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.08.033, 2008. a
Finlayson, C., Giles Pacheco, F., Rodríguez-Vidal, J., Fa, D. A., María Gutierrez López, J., Santiago Pérez, A., Finlayson, G., Allue, E., Baena Preysler, J., Cáceres, I., Carrión, J. S., Fernández Jalvo,
Y., Gleed-Owen, C. P., Jimenez Espejo, F. J., López, P., Antonio
López Sáez, J., Antonio Riquelme Cantal, J., Sánchez Marco, A.,
Giles Guzman, F., Brown, K., Fuentes, N., Valarino, C. A., Villalpando, A.,
Stringer, C. B., Martinez Ruiz, F., and Sakamoto, T.: Late survival of
Neanderthals at the southernmost extreme of Europe, Nature, 443,
850–853, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature05195, 2006. a
Gent, P. R., Danabasoglu, G., Donner, L. J., Holland, M. M., Hunke, E. C.,
Jayne, S. R., Lawrence, D. M., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P. J., Vertenstein, M.,
Worley, P. H., Yang, Z.-L., and Zhang, M.: The Community Climate System
Model Version 4, J. Climate, 24, 4973–4991,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1, 2011. a, b
Gerhart, L. M. and Ward, J. K.: Plant responses to low [CO2] of the past, New Phytol., 188, 674–695, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03441.x, 2010. a
Gómez-Navarro, J. J., Montávez, J. P., Jerez, S., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Lorente-Plazas, R., González-Rouco, J. F., and Zorita, E.: A regional climate simulation over the Iberian Peninsula for the last millennium, Clim. Past, 7, 451–472, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-451-2011, 2011. a
Gómez-Navarro, J. J., Montávez, J. P., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Jerez, S., Lorente-Plazas, R., González-Rouco, J. F., and Zorita, E.: Internal and external variability in regional simulations of the Iberian Peninsula climate over the last millennium, Clim. Past, 8, 25–36, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-25-2012, 2012. a, b
Gómez-Navarro, J. J., Montávez, J. P., Wagner, S., and Zorita, E.: A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 1: Model validation, Clim. Past, 9, 1667–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, 2013. a, b
Gómez-Navarro, J. J., Bothe, O., Wagner, S., Zorita, E., Werner, J. P., Luterbacher, J., Raible, C. C., and Montávez, J. P.: A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 2: Shortcomings and strengths of models and reconstructions, Clim. Past, 11, 1077–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, 2015. a
Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., Izumi, K., Li, G., Annan, J., Hargreaves, J., Braconnot, P., and Kageyama, M.: Evaluation of CMIP5 palaeo-simulations to improve climate projections, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 735–743,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2649, 2015. a
Haxeltine, A. and Prentice, I. C.: BIOME3: An equilibrium terrestrial
biosphere model based on ecophysiological constraints, resource availability,
and competition among plant functional types, Global Biogeochem. Cy.,
10, 693–709, 1996. a
Haxeltine, A., Prentice, I. C., and Creswell, I. D.: A coupled carbon and water flux model to predict vegetation structure, J. Veg. Sci., 7, 651–666, https://doi.org/10.2307/3236377, 1996. a
Hofer, D., Raible, C. C., Merz, N., Dehnert, A., and Kuhlemann, J.: Simulated
winter circulation types in the North Atlantic and European region for
preindustrial and glacial conditions: Glacial circulation types,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L15805, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052296,
2012b. a, b, c
Hunke, E. C. and Lipscomb, W. H.: CICE: the Los Alamos Sea Ice
Model Documentation and Software User's Manual
Version 4.1 LA-CC-06-012, Tech. rep., Los Alamos National Laboratory,
Los Alamos, NM, USA, 2010. a
Iles, C. E., Vautard, R., Strachan, J., Joussaume, S., Eggen, B. R., and Hewitt, C. D.: The benefits of increasing resolution in global and regional climate simulations for European climate extremes, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5583–5607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5583-2020, 2020. a
Jahn, A., Claussen, M., Ganopolski, A., and Brovkin, V.: Quantifying the effect of vegetation dynamics on the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum, Clim. Past, 1, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-1-1-2005, 2005. a
Janská, V., Jiménez-Alfaro, B., Chytrý, M., Divíšek, J.,
Anenkhonov, O., Korolyuk, A., Lashchinskyi, N., and Culek, M.:
Palaeodistribution modelling of European vegetation types at the Last
Glacial Maximum using modern analogues from Siberia: Prospects and
limitations, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 159, 103–115,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.01.011, 2017. a
Jia, G., Shevliakova, E., Artaxo, P., Noblet-Ducoudré, N. D., Houghton, R., House, J., Kitajima, K., Lennard, C., Popp, A., Sirin, A., Sukumar, R., and Verchot, L.: Land–climate interactions, in: Climate Change
and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land
degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas
fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, edited by: Shukla, P. R., Skea, J.,
Calvo Buendia, E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Zhai, P., Slade, R., Connors, S., van Diemen, R., Ferrat, M., Haughey, E., Luz, S., Neogi, S., Pathak, M., Petzold, J., Portugal Pereira, J., Vyas, P., Huntley, E., Kissick, K., Belkacemi, M., and Malley, J., in
press, 2019a. a
Jia, K., Ruan, Y., Yang, Y., and Zhang, C.: Assessing the Performance of
CMIP5 Global Climate Models for Simulating Future Precipitation
Change in the Tibetan Plateau, Water, 11, 1771,
https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091771, 2019b. a
Jia, K.-H., Zhao, W., Maier, P. A., Hu, X.-G., Jin, Y., Zhou, S.-S., Jiao,
S.-Q., El-Kassaby, Y. A., Wang, T., Wang, X.-R., and Mao, J.-F.: Landscape
genomics predicts climate change-related genetic offset for the widespread
Platycladus orientalis (Cupressaceae), Evol. Appl., 13,
665–676, 2020. a
Kageyama, M., Laîné, A., Abe-Ouchi, A., Braconnot, P., Cortijo, E.,
Crucifix, M., de Vernal, A., Guiot, J., Hewitt, C. D., Kitoh, A., Kucera, M.,
Marti, O., Ohgaito, R., Otto-Bliesner, B., Peltier, W. R., Rosell-Melé,
A., Vettoretti, G., Weber, S. L., and Yu, Y.: Last Glacial Maximum
temperatures over the North Atlantic, Europe and western Siberia: a
comparison between PMIP models, MARGO sea–surface
temperatures and pollen-based reconstructions, Quaternary Sci. Rev.,
25, 2082–2102, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.02.010, 2006. a
Kageyama, M., Albani, S., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Hopcroft, P. O., Ivanovic, R. F., Lambert, F., Marti, O., Peltier, W. R., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Roche, D. M., Tarasov, L., Zhang, X., Brady, E. C., Haywood, A. M., LeGrande, A. N., Lunt, D. J., Mahowald, N. M., Mikolajewicz, U., Nisancioglu, K. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Renssen, H., Tomas, R. A., Zhang, Q., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bartlein, P. J., Cao, J., Li, Q., Lohmann, G., Ohgaito, R., Shi, X., Volodin, E., Yoshida, K., Zhang, X., and Zheng, W.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 4: Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017. a, b
Kageyama, M., Harrison, S. P., Kapsch, M.-L., Lofverstrom, M., Lora, J. M., Mikolajewicz, U., Sherriff-Tadano, S., Vadsaria, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bouttes, N., Chandan, D., Gregoire, L. J., Ivanovic, R. F., Izumi, K., LeGrande, A. N., Lhardy, F., Lohmann, G., Morozova, P. A., Ohgaito, R., Paul, A., Peltier, W. R., Poulsen, C. J., Quiquet, A., Roche, D. M., Shi, X., Tierney, J. E., Valdes, P. J., Volodin, E., and Zhu, J.: The PMIP4 Last Glacial Maximum experiments: preliminary results and comparison with the PMIP3 simulations, Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021. a, b
Kaplan, J. O.: Geophysical Applications of Vegetation Modeling, Doctoral dissertation, Lund University, Lund, Sweden,
2001. a
Kaplan, J. O.: ARVE-Research/lpj2wrf: first release (Version v1.0.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4922199, 2021. a
Kaplan, J. O., Pfeiffer, M., and Chaste, E.: ARVE-Research/LPJ-LMfire: LPJ-LMfire, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1184589, 2018. a
Klein, K., Wegener, C., Schmidt, I., Rostami, M., Ludwig, P., Ulbrich, S.,
Richter, J., Weniger, G.-C., and Shao, Y.: Human existence potential in
Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum, Quatern. Int.,
581–582, 7–27, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2020.07.046, 2021. a
Knist, S., Goergen, K., and Simmer, C.: Evaluation and projected changes of
precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations
over Central Europe, Clim. Dynam., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4147-x,
2018. a
Kreveld, S. v., Sarnthein, M., Erlenkeuser, H., Grootes, P., Jung, S., Nadeau, M. J., Pflaumann, U., and Voelker, A.: Potential links between surging ice sheets, circulation changes, and the Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycles in the Irminger Sea, 60–18 Kyr, Paleoceanography, 15, 425–442, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999PA000464, 2000. a
Landais, A., Masson-Delmotte, V., Capron, E., Langebroek, P. M., Bakker, P., Stone, E. J., Merz, N., Raible, C. C., Fischer, H., Orsi, A., Prié, F., Vinther, B., and Dahl-Jensen, D.: How warm was Greenland during the last interglacial period?, Clim. Past, 12, 1933–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, 2016. a
Lofverstrom, M.: A dynamic link between high-intensity precipitation events in southwestern North America and Europe at the Last Glacial
Maximum, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 534, 116081,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116081, 2020. a, b
Lu, Z., Miller, P. A., Zhang, Q., Wårlind, D., Nieradzik, L., Sjolte, J., Li, Q., and Smith, B.: Vegetation pattern and terrestrial carbon variation in
past warm and cold climates, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 8133–8143,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083729, 2019. a
Ludwig, P., Schaffernicht, E. J., Shao, Y., and Pinto, J. G.: Regional
atmospheric circulation over Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum
and its links to precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
121, 2130–2145, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024444, 2016. a, b, c, d
Ludwig, P., Shao, Y., Kehl, M., and Weniger, G.-C.: The Last Glacial
Maximum and Heinrich event I on the Iberian Peninsula: A regional
climate modelling study for understanding human settlement patterns, Global
Planet. Chang., 170, 34–47, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.08.006,
2018. a
Ludwig, P., Gavrilov, M. B., Markovic, S. B., Ujvari, G., and Lehmkuhl, F.:
Simulated regional dust cycle in the Carpathian Basin and the Adriatic
Sea region during the Last Glacial Maximum, Quatern. Int., 581–582, 114–127,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2020.09.048, 2020. a
Luetscher, M., Boch, R., Sodemann, H., Spötl, C., Cheng, H., Edwards,
R. L., Frisia, S., Hof, F., and Müller, W.: North Atlantic storm track
changes during the Last Glacial Maximum recorded by Alpine
speleothems, Nat. Commun., 6, 6344, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms7344, 2015. a, b, c
Magyari, E. K., Kuneš, P., Jakab, G., Sümegi, P., Pelánková,
B., Schäbitz, F., Braun, M., and Chytrý, M.: Late Pleniglacial
vegetation in eastern-central Europe: are there modern analogues in
Siberia?, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 95, 60–79,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.04.020, 2014a. a
Magyari, E. K., Veres, D., Wennrich, V., Wagner, B., Braun, M., Jakab, G.,
Karátson, D., Pál, Z., Ferenczy, G., St-Onge, G., Rethemeyer, J.,
Francois, J. P., von Reumont, F., and Schäbitz, F.: Vegetation and
environmental responses to climate forcing during the Last Glacial
Maximum and deglaciation in the East Carpathians: attenuated response
to maximum cooling and increased biomass burning, Quaternary Sci. Rev.,
106, 278–298, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.09.015, 2014b. a
Maier, A., Lehmkuhl, F., Ludwig, P., Melles, M., Schmidt, I., Shao, Y., Zeeden, C., and Zimmermann, A.: Demographic estimates of hunter–gatherers
during the Last Glacial Maximum in Europe against the background of
palaeoenvironmental data, Quatern. Int., 425, 49–61,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2016.04.009, 2016. a
Merz, N., Raible, C. C., Fischer, H., Varma, V., Prange, M., and Stocker, T. F.: Greenland accumulation and its connection to the large-scale atmospheric circulation in ERA-Interim and paleoclimate simulations, Clim. Past, 9, 2433–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, 2013. a
Merz, N., Born, A., Raible, C. C., Fischer, H., and Stocker, T. F.: Dependence of Eemian Greenland temperature reconstructions on the ice sheet topography, Clim. Past, 10, 1221–1238, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1221-2014, 2014a. a
Merz, N., Gfeller, G., Born, A., Raible, C. C., Stocker, T. F., and Fischer,
H.: Influence of ice sheet topography on Greenland precipitation during the
Eemian interglacial, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119,
10749–10768, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021940, 2014b. a
Merz, N., Born, A., Raible, C. C., and Stocker, T. F.: Warm Greenland during the last interglacial: the role of regional changes in sea ice cover, Clim. Past, 12, 2011–2031, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2011-2016, 2016. a
Mix, A. C., Bard, E., and Schneider, R.: Environmental processes of the ice
age: land, oceans, glaciers (EPILOG), Quaternary Sci. Rev., 20,
627–657, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(00)00145-1, 2001. a
Moreno, A., González-Sampériz, P., Morellón, M., Valero-Garcés, B. L., and Fletcher, W. J.: Northern Iberian abrupt climate change dynamics during the last glacial cycle: A view from lacustrine sediments, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 36, 139–153, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.06.031, 2012. a
Neale, R. B., Richter, J. H., Conley, A. J., Park, S., Lauritzen, P. H.,
Gettelman, A., Rasch, P. J., and Vavrus, J.: Description of the NCAR
community atmosphere model (CAM4), National Center for Atmospheric Research
Tech. Rep. NCAR/TN+ STR, available at: http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/ccsm4.0/cam/docs/description/cam4_desc.pdf (last access: 9 June 2021),
2010. a
Niu, G.-Y., Yang, Z.-L., Mitchell, K. E., Chen, F., Ek, M. B., Barlage, M.,
Kumar, A., Manning, K., Niyogi, D., Rosero, E., Tewari, M., and Xia, Y.: The
community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options
(Noah-MP): 1. Model description and evaluation with local-scale
measurements, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D12109,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015139, 2011. a, b, c
Noblet, N. I. d., Prentice, I. C., Joussaume, S., Texier, D., Botta, A., and
Haxeltine, A.: Possible role of atmosphere-biosphere interactions in
triggering the Last Glaciation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23,
3191–3194, https://doi.org/10.1029/96GL03004, 1996. a
Oleson, W., Lawrence, M., Bonan, B., Flanner, G., Kluzek, E., Lawrence, J.,
Levis, S., Swenson, C., Thornton, E., Dai, A., Decker, M., Dickinson, R.,
Feddema, J., Heald, L., Hoffman, F., Lamarque, J.-F., Mahowald, N., Niu,
G.-Y., Qian, T., Randerson, J., Running, S., Sakaguchi, K., Slater, A.,
Stockli, R., Wang, A., Yang, Z.-L., Zeng, X., and Zeng, X.: Technical
description of version 4.0 of the community land model (CLM), NCAR
Technical Note NCAR/TN-478+STR, National Center for Atmospheric
Research, Boulder, CO, USA, available at: http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/cesm1.0/clm/CLM4_Tech_Note.pdf (last access: 9 June 2021), 2010. a
Peltier, W.: Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the ice-age Earth:
The ICE-5G (VM2) model and grace, Annu. Rev. Earth Pl. Sc., 32, 111–149,
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.32.082503.144359, 2004. a
Pfeiffer, M., Spessa, A., and Kaplan, J. O.: A model for global biomass burning in preindustrial time: LPJ-LMfire (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 643–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-643-2013, 2013. a, b
Prein, A. F., Holland, G. J., Rasmussen, R. M., Done, J., Ikeda, K., Clark,
M. P., and Liu, C. H.: Importance of Regional Climate Model Grid
Spacing for the Simulation of Heavy Precipitation in the Colorado
Headwaters, J. Climate, 26, 4848–4857,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00727.1, 2013. a
Prentice, I. C. and Jolly, D.: Mid-Holocene and glacial-maximum vegetation
geography of the northern continents and Africa, J. Biogeogr.,
27, 507–519, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2699.2000.00425.x, 2000. a
Prentice, I. C., Cramer, W., Harrison, S. P., Leemans, R., Monserud, R. A., and
Solomon, A. M.: Special Paper: A Global Biome Model Based on
Plant Physiology and Dominance, Soil Properties and Climate,
J. Biogeogr., 19, 117–134, https://doi.org/10.2307/2845499, 1992. a
Raible, C. C., Pinto, J. G., Ludwig, P., and Messmer, M.: A review of past
changes in extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere and what can be
learned for the future, WIRES Clim. Change, 12, e680, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.680, 2020. a, b, c, d
Rajczak, J. and Schär, C.: Projections of future precipitation extremes
over Europe: A multimodel assessment of climate simulations, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 10773–10800,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027176, 2017. a
Rauscher, S. A., Coppola, E., Piani, C., and Giorgi, F.: Resolution effects on regional climate model simulations of seasonal precipitation over Europe, Clim. Dynam., 35, 685–711, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0607-7, 2010. a
Roucoux, K. H., de Abreu, L., Shackleton, N. J., and Tzedakis, P. C.: The
response of NW Iberian vegetation to North Atlantic climate
oscillations during the last 65 kyr, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 24,
1637–1653, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.08.022, 2005. a, b
Sanchez Goñi, M. F. and Harrison, S. P.: Millennial-scale climate
variability and vegetation changes during the Last Glacial: Concepts
and terminology, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 2823–2827,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.11.014, 2010. a
Schaffernicht, E. J., Ludwig, P., and Shao, Y.: Linkage between dust cycle and loess of the Last Glacial Maximum in Europe, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4969–4986, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4969-2020, 2020. a
Schulzweida, U.: CDO User Guide (Version 1.9.6), Zenodo,
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2558193, 2019. a
Seguinot, J., Ivy-Ochs, S., Jouvet, G., Huss, M., Funk, M., and Preusser, F.: Modelling last glacial cycle ice dynamics in the Alps, The Cryosphere, 12, 3265–3285, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3265-2018, 2018. a
Shrestha, R. K., Connolly, P. J., and Gallagher, M. W.: Sensitivity of WRF
Cloud Microphysics to Simulations of a Convective Storm Over the
Nepal Himalayas, The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 11, 29–43,
https://doi.org/10.2174/1874282301711010029, 2017. a
Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W.,
Kaplan, J. O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M. T., Thonicke, K., and
Venevsky, S.: Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and
terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model,
Glob. Change Biol., 9, 161–185, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00569.x,
2003. a, b
Skamarock, W. C. and Klemp, J. B.: A time-split nonhydrostatic atmospheric
model for weather research and forecasting applications, J. Comput. Phys., 227, 3465–3485, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2007.01.037, 2008 (data available at: http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/code_admin.php, last access: 12 October 2020). a, b, c, d
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, O., Barker, D., Duda, G.,
Huang, X.-y., Wang, W., and Powers, G.: A description of the advanced
research WRF version 3, (No. NCAR/TN-475+STR), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, https://doi.org/10.5065/D68S4MVH, 2008. a, b
Stanford, J. D., Rohling, E. J., Bacon, S., Roberts, A. P., Grousset, F. E.,
and Bolshaw, M.: A new concept for the paleoceanographic evolution of
Heinrich event 1 in the North Atlantic, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 30,
1047–1066, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.02.003, 2011. a
Strandberg, G. and Kjellström, E.: Climate impacts from afforestation and
deforestation in Europe, Earth Interact., 23, 1–27,
https://doi.org/10.1175/EI-D-17-0033.1, 2019. a
Strandberg, G., Kjellström, E., Poska, A., Wagner, S., Gaillard, M.-J., Trondman, A.-K., Mauri, A., Davis, B. A. S., Kaplan, J. O., Birks, H. J. B., Bjune, A. E., Fyfe, R., Giesecke, T., Kalnina, L., Kangur, M., van der Knaap, W. O., Kokfelt, U., Kuneš, P., Latałowa, M., Marquer, L., Mazier, F., Nielsen, A. B., Smith, B., Seppä, H., and Sugita, S.: Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation, Clim. Past, 10, 661–680, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, 2014. a, b, c
Texier, D., de Noblet, N., Harrison, S. P., Haxeltine, A., Jolly, D.,
Joussaume, S., Laarif, F., Prentice, I. C., and Tarasov, P.: Quantifying the
role of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in climate change: coupled model
simulations for 6000 years BP and comparison with palaeodata for northern
Eurasia and northern Africa, Clim. Dynam., 13, 865–881,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050202, 1997. a
UCAR/NCAR/CISL/TDD: The NCAR Command Language (Version 6.6.2)
[Software], https://doi.org/10.5065/D6WD3XH5, 2019. a, b
Újvári, G., Stevens, T., Molnár, M., Demény, A., Lambert, F.,
Varga, G., Jull, A. J. T., Páll-Gergely, B., Buylaert, J.-P., and
Kovács, J.: Coupled European and Greenland last glacial dust activity
driven by North Atlantic climate, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, E10632–E10638, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1712651114, 2017. a
Van Meerbeeck, C. J., Renssen, H., and Roche, D. M.: How did Marine Isotope Stage 3 and Last Glacial Maximum climates differ? – Perspectives from equilibrium simulations, Clim. Past, 5, 33–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-33-2009, 2009. a
Vegas, J., Ruiz-Zapata, B., Ortiz, J. E., Galán, L., Torres, T.,
García-Cortés, Á., Gil-García, M. J., Pérez-González,
A., and Gallardo-Millán, J. L.: Identification of arid phases during the
last 50 cal. ka BP from the Fuentillejo maar-lacustrine record (Campo
de Calatrava Volcanic Field, Spain), J. Quaternary Sci.,
25, 1051–1062, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.1262, 2010. a
Velasquez, P., Messmer, M., and Raible, C. C.: A new bias-correction method for precipitation over complex terrain suitable for different climate states: a case study using WRF (version 3.8.1), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5007–5027, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, 2020. a
Voelker, A. H. L., Sarnthein, M., Grootes, P. M., Erlenkeuser, H., Laj, C.,
Mazaud, A., Nadeau, M.-J., and Schleicher, M.: Correlation of Marine 14C Ages from the Nordic Seas with the GISP2 Isotope Record: Implications for 14C Calibration Beyond 25 ka BP, Radiocarbon, 40, 517–534, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0033822200018397, 1997. a
Walsh, J. E., Chapman, W. L., Romanovsky, V., Christensen, J. H., and Stendel,
M.: Global Climate Model Performance over Alaska and Greenland,
J. Climate, 21, 6156–6174, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2163.1, 2008. a
Wang, N., Jiang, D., and Lang, X.: Northern Westerlies during the Last
Glacial Maximum: Results from CMIP5 Simulations, J.
Climate, 31, 1135–1153, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0314.1, 2018. a, b
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, Academic Press, Burlington, MA, USA, San Diego, California, USA, London, UK, google-Books-ID: IJuCVtQ0ySIC, 2011. a
Woillez, M.-N., Kageyama, M., Krinner, G., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Viovy, N., and Mancip, M.: Impact of CO2 and climate on the Last Glacial Maximum vegetation: results from the ORCHIDEE/IPSL models, Clim. Past, 7, 557–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-557-2011, 2011. a
Wu, H., Guiot, J., Brewer, S., and Guo, Z.: Climatic changes in Eurasia and
Africa at the last glacial maximum and mid-Holocene: reconstruction from
pollen data using inverse vegetation modelling, Clim. Dynam., 29,
211–229, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0231-3, 2007. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n
Yang, Q., Dai, Q., Han, D., Chen, Y., and Zhang, S.: Sensitivity analysis of
raindrop size distribution parameterizations in WRF rainfall simulation,
Atmos. Res., 228, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.05.019, 2019.
a
Yokoyama, Y., Lambeck, K., De Deckker, P., Johnston, P., and Fifield, L. K.:
Timing of the Last Glacial Maximum from observed sea-level minima,
Nature, 406, 713–716, https://doi.org/10.1038/35021035, 2000. a
Short summary
This study assesses the importance of resolution and land–atmosphere feedbacks for European climate. We performed an asynchronously coupled experiment that combined a global climate model (~ 100 km), a regional climate model (18 km), and a dynamic vegetation model (18 km). Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. The regional climate is significantly influenced by land cover.
This study assesses the importance of resolution and land–atmosphere feedbacks for European...
