Articles | Volume 14, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-665-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-665-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Placing the Common Era in a Holocene context: millennial to centennial patterns and trends in the hydroclimate of North America over the past 2000 years
Roy J. Shlemon Center for Quaternary Studies, Department of
Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming,
82071, USA
Cody Routson
School of Earth Sciences & Environmental Sustainability,
Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86011, USA
Nicholas McKay
School of Earth Sciences & Environmental Sustainability,
Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86011, USA
Sherilyn Fritz
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of
Nebraska, Lincoln, Nebraska, 68588, USA
Darrell Kaufman
School of Earth Sciences & Environmental Sustainability,
Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86011, USA
Matthew E. Kirby
Department of Geological Sciences, California State
University, Fullerton, Fullerton, California, 92834, USA
Connor Nolan
Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Arizona,
85721, USA
Gregory T. Pederson
Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, US Geological
Survey, Bozeman, Montana, 59715, USA
Jeannine-Marie St-Jacques
Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia
University, Montreal, Quebec, H3G 1M8, Canada
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Bryan N. Shuman
Clim. Past, 20, 1703–1720, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1703-2024, 2024
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A gap in understanding climate variation exists at centennial to millennial scales, particularly for warm climates. Such variations challenge detection. They exceed direct observation but are geologically short. Centennial to millennial variations that may have influenced North America were examined over the past 7 kyr. Significant patterns were detected from fossil pollen and sedimentary lake level changes, indicating ecological, hydrological, and likely human significance.
Andria Dawson, John W. Williams, Marie-José Gaillard, Simon J. Goring, Behnaz Pirzamanbein, Johan Lindstrom, R. Scott Anderson, Andrea Brunelle, David Foster, Konrad Gajewski, Dan G. Gavin, Terri Lacourse, Thomas A. Minckley, Wyatt Oswald, Bryan Shuman, and Cathy Whitlock
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Clim. Past, 18, 1109–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1109-2022, 2022
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A large drought potentially occurred roughly 4200 years ago, but its impacts and significance are unclear. We find new evidence in carbonate oxygen isotopes from a mountain lake in southeastern Wyoming, southern Rocky Mountains, of an abrupt reduction in effective moisture (precipitation–evaporation) or snowpack from approximately 4200–4000 years ago. The drought's prominence among a growing number of sites in the North American interior suggests it was a regionally substantial climate event.
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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Snow avalanches pose substantial risks to communities and public safety in Colorado. We studied tree growth patterns impacted by avalanches from 1698 to 2020 alongside meteorological data. We found variations in avalanche frequency revealing a decline in regional avalanche activity and shifts in the causes of these types of large and widespread avalanche events. This knowledge can enhance avalanche safety measures and infrastructure design.
Alice R. Paine, Joost Frieling, Timothy M. Shanahan, Tamsin A. Mather, Nicholas McKay, Stuart A. Robinson, David M. Pyle, Isabel M. Fendley, Ruth Kiely, and William D. Gosling
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Christopher L. Hancock, Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Sylvia G. Dee, and Ruza F. Ivanovic
Clim. Past, 20, 2663–2684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2663-2024, 2024
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We reconstruct global hydroclimate anomalies for the past 21 000 years using a data assimilation methodology blending observations recorded in lake sediments with the climate dynamics simulated by climate models. The reconstruction resolves data–model disagreement in east Africa and North America, and we find that changing global temperatures and associated circulation patterns, as well as orbital forcing, are the dominant controls on global precipitation over this interval.
Darrell Kaufman and Valérie Masson-Delmotte
Clim. Past, 20, 2587–2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2587-2024, 2024
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Laura J. Larocca, James M. Lea, Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Megan Phillips, Kara A. Lamantia, and Darrell S. Kaufman
The Cryosphere, 18, 3591–3611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3591-2024, 2024
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Here we present summer snowline altitude (SLA) time series for 269 Arctic glaciers. Between 1984 and 2022, SLAs rose ∼ 150 m, equating to a ∼ 127 m shift per 1 °C of summer warming. SLA is most strongly correlated with annual temperature variables, highlighting their dual effect on ablation and accumulation processes. We show that SLAs are rising fastest on low-elevation glaciers and that > 50 % of the studied glaciers could have SLAs that exceed the maximum ice elevation by 2100.
Bryan N. Shuman
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A gap in understanding climate variation exists at centennial to millennial scales, particularly for warm climates. Such variations challenge detection. They exceed direct observation but are geologically short. Centennial to millennial variations that may have influenced North America were examined over the past 7 kyr. Significant patterns were detected from fossil pollen and sedimentary lake level changes, indicating ecological, hydrological, and likely human significance.
Andria Dawson, John W. Williams, Marie-José Gaillard, Simon J. Goring, Behnaz Pirzamanbein, Johan Lindstrom, R. Scott Anderson, Andrea Brunelle, David Foster, Konrad Gajewski, Dan G. Gavin, Terri Lacourse, Thomas A. Minckley, Wyatt Oswald, Bryan Shuman, and Cathy Whitlock
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Holocene vegetation-atmosphere interactions provide insight into intensifying land use impacts and the Holocene Conundrum- a mismatch between data- and model- inferred temperature. Using pollen records and statistical modeling, we reconstruct Holocene land cover for North America. We determine patterns and magnitudes of land cover changes across scales. We attribute land cover changes to ecological, climatic, and human drivers. These reconstructions provide benchmarks for Earth System Models.
Gabriel West, Darrell S. Kaufman, Martin Jakobsson, and Matt O'Regan
Geochronology, 5, 285–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-5-285-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-5-285-2023, 2023
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Rachel M. Walter, Hussein R. Sayani, Thomas Felis, Kim M. Cobb, Nerilie J. Abram, Ariella K. Arzey, Alyssa R. Atwood, Logan D. Brenner, Émilie P. Dassié, Kristine L. DeLong, Bethany Ellis, Julien Emile-Geay, Matthew J. Fischer, Nathalie F. Goodkin, Jessica A. Hargreaves, K. Halimeda Kilbourne, Hedwig Krawczyk, Nicholas P. McKay, Andrea L. Moore, Sujata A. Murty, Maria Rosabelle Ong, Riovie D. Ramos, Emma V. Reed, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Sara C. Sanchez, Jens Zinke, and the PAGES CoralHydro2k Project Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2081–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2081-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2081-2023, 2023
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Accurately quantifying how the global hydrological cycle will change in the future remains challenging due to the limited availability of historical climate data from the tropics. Here we present the CoralHydro2k database – a new compilation of peer-reviewed coral-based climate records from the last 2000 years. This paper details the records included in the database and where the database can be accessed and demonstrates how the database can investigate past tropical climate variability.
Jan Petřík, Katarína Adameková, Sándor Kele, Rastislav Milovský, Libor Petr, Peter Tóth, and Nicholas McKay
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-118, 2023
Preprint archived
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Our analysis of the Santovka sedimentary record in Slovakia uncovered two major climate shifts at 8.2 and 7.4 ka BP. These shifts likely impacted temperature and humidity, and/or air mass circulation, and were caused by the drying of the lake at 7.4 ka BP. The sedimentary infill provides important information on the region's past climate, and future research must focus on its impact on the last hunter gatherers and first farmers in the context of spreading agriculture in Europe.
Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Nathan Steiger, Sylvia Dee, Chris Hancock, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 18, 2599–2629, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, 2022
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To look at climate over the past 12 000 years, we reconstruct spatial temperature using natural climate archives and information from model simulations. Our results show mild global mean warmth around 6000 years ago, which differs somewhat from past reconstructions. Undiagnosed seasonal biases in the data could explain some of the observed temperature change, but this still would not explain the large difference between many reconstructions and climate models over this period.
Stephanie H. Arcusa, Nicholas P. McKay, Charlotte Wiman, Sela Patterson, Samuel E. Munoz, and Marco A. Aquino-López
Geochronology, 4, 409–433, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-409-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-409-2022, 2022
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Annually banded lake sediment can track environmental change with high resolution in locations where alternatives are not available. Yet, information about chronology is often affected by poor appearance. Traditional methods struggle with these records. To overcome this obstacle we demonstrate a Bayesian approach that combines information from radiocarbon dating and laminations on cores from Columbine Lake, Colorado, expanding possibilities for producing high-resolution records globally.
David T. Liefert and Bryan N. Shuman
Clim. Past, 18, 1109–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1109-2022, 2022
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A large drought potentially occurred roughly 4200 years ago, but its impacts and significance are unclear. We find new evidence in carbonate oxygen isotopes from a mountain lake in southeastern Wyoming, southern Rocky Mountains, of an abrupt reduction in effective moisture (precipitation–evaporation) or snowpack from approximately 4200–4000 years ago. The drought's prominence among a growing number of sites in the North American interior suggests it was a regionally substantial climate event.
Darrell S. Kaufman and Nicholas P. McKay
Clim. Past, 18, 911–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-911-2022, 2022
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Global mean surface temperatures are rising to levels unprecedented in over 100 000 years. This conclusion takes into account both recent global warming and likely future warming, which thereby enables a direct comparison with paleotemperature reconstructions on multi-century timescales.
Lauren J. Davies, Britta J. L. Jensen, and Darrell S. Kaufman
Geochronology, 4, 121–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-121-2022, 2022
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Subarctic and Arctic lake sediments provide key data to understand natural climate variability and future climate change. However, they can be difficult to date accurately and of limited use without a robust chronology. We use volcanic ash deposits from the last ~4000 BP to identify anomalously old radiocarbon ages at Cascade Lake, Alaska. A provisional ~15 000-year Bayesian age model is produced for the lake, and a new location for ash from five Late Holocene eruptions is reported.
Douglas P. Steen, Joseph S. Stoner, Jason P. Briner, and Darrell S. Kaufman
Geochronology Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2021-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2021-19, 2021
Publication in GChron not foreseen
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Paleomagnetic data from Cascade Lake (Brooks Range, Alaska) extend the radiometric-based age model of the sedimentary sequence extending back 21 kyr. Correlated ages based on prominent features in paleomagnetic secular variations (PSV) diverge from the radiometric ages in the upper 1.6 m, by up to about 2000 years at around 4 ka. Four late Holocene cryptotephra in this section support the PSV chronology and suggest the influence of hard water or aged organic material.
Cody C. Routson, Darrell S. Kaufman, Nicholas P. McKay, Michael P. Erb, Stéphanie H. Arcusa, Kendrick J. Brown, Matthew E. Kirby, Jeremiah P. Marsicek, R. Scott Anderson, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Jessica R. Rodysill, Matthew S. Lachniet, Sherilyn C. Fritz, Joseph R. Bennett, Michelle F. Goman, Sarah E. Metcalfe, Jennifer M. Galloway, Gerrit Schoups, David B. Wahl, Jesse L. Morris, Francisca Staines-Urías, Andria Dawson, Bryan N. Shuman, Daniel G. Gavin, Jeffrey S. Munroe, and Brian F. Cumming
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1613–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1613-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1613-2021, 2021
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We present a curated database of western North American Holocene paleoclimate records, which have been screened on length, resolution, and geochronology. The database gathers paleoclimate time series that reflect temperature, hydroclimate, or circulation features from terrestrial and marine sites, spanning a region from Mexico to Alaska. This publicly accessible collection will facilitate a broad range of paleoclimate inquiry.
Petra Zahajská, Carolina Olid, Johanna Stadmark, Sherilyn C. Fritz, Sophie Opfergelt, and Daniel J. Conley
Biogeosciences, 18, 2325–2345, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2325-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2325-2021, 2021
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The drivers of high accumulation of single-cell siliceous algae (diatoms) in a high-latitude lake have not been fully characterized before. We studied silicon cycling of the lake through water, radon, silicon, and stable silicon isotope balances. Results showed that groundwater brings 3 times more water and dissolved silica than the stream inlet. We demonstrate that groundwater discharge and low sediment deposition have driven the high diatom accumulation in the studied lake in the past century.
Nicholas P. McKay, Julien Emile-Geay, and Deborah Khider
Geochronology, 3, 149–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-149-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-149-2021, 2021
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This paper describes geoChronR, an R package that streamlines the process of quantifying age uncertainties, propagating uncertainties through several common analyses, and visualizing the results. In addition to describing the structure and underlying theory of the package, we present five real-world use cases that illustrate common workflows in geoChronR. geoChronR is built on the Linked PaleoData framework, is open and extensible, and we welcome feedback and contributions from the community.
Erich Peitzsch, Jordy Hendrikx, Daniel Stahle, Gregory Pederson, Karl Birkeland, and Daniel Fagre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 533–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-533-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-533-2021, 2021
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We sampled 647 trees from 12 avalanche paths to investigate large snow avalanches over the past 400 years in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA. Sizable avalanches occur approximately every 3 years across the region. Our results emphasize the importance of sample size, scale, and spatial extent when reconstructing avalanche occurrence across a region. This work can be used for infrastructure planning and avalanche forecasting operations.
Chris S. M. Turney, Richard T. Jones, Nicholas P. McKay, Erik van Sebille, Zoë A. Thomas, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, and Christopher J. Fogwill
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3341–3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020, 2020
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The Last Interglacial (129–116 ka) experienced global temperatures and sea levels higher than today. The direct contribution of warmer conditions to global sea level (thermosteric) are uncertain. We report a global network of sea surface temperatures. We find mean global annual temperature anomalies of 0.2 ± 0.1˚C and an early maximum peak of 0.9 ± 0.1˚C. Our reconstruction suggests warmer waters contributed on average 0.08 ± 0.1 m and a peak contribution of 0.39 ± 0.1 m to global sea level.
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Short summary
A synthesis of 93 published records reveals that moisture availability increased over large portions of North America over the past 2000 years, the Common Era (CE). In many records, the second millennium CE tended to be wetter than the first millennium CE. The long-term changes formed the background for annual to multi-decade variations, such as "mega-droughts", and also provide a context for amplified rates of hydrologic change today.
A synthesis of 93 published records reveals that moisture availability increased over large...