Articles | Volume 14, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1315-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1315-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Sep 2018
Research article |
| 18 Sep 2018
Relative timing of precipitation and ocean circulation changes in the western equatorial Atlantic over the last 45 kyr
Claire Waelbroeck
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
LSCE/IPSL, Laboratoire CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette,
France
Sylvain Pichat
Laboratoire de Géologie de Lyon (LGL-TPE), Ecole Normale
Supérieure de Lyon, Université de Lyon, CNRS UMR5276, 69007 Lyon,
France
Climate Geochemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for
Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
Evelyn Böhm
LSCE/IPSL, Laboratoire CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette,
France
Bryan C. Lougheed
LSCE/IPSL, Laboratoire CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette,
France
Davide Faranda
LSCE/IPSL, Laboratoire CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette,
France
Mathieu Vrac
LSCE/IPSL, Laboratoire CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette,
France
Lise Missiaen
LSCE/IPSL, Laboratoire CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette,
France
Natalia Vazquez Riveiros
LSCE/IPSL, Laboratoire CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette,
France
Ifremer, Unité de Geosciences Marines, 29280 Plouzané,
France
Pierre Burckel
IPGP, Université Sorbonne, 75238 Paris, France
Jörg Lippold
Institute of Earth Sciences, Heidelberg University, Im Neuenheimer
Feld 234, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
Helge W. Arz
Leibniz-Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde,
Seestrasse 15, 18119 Rostock, Germany
Trond Dokken
Uni Research and Bjreknes Centre for Climate Research,
Nygårdsgaten 112, 5008 Bergen, Norway
François Thil
LSCE/IPSL, Laboratoire CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette,
France
Arnaud Dapoigny
LSCE/IPSL, Laboratoire CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette,
France
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Davide Faranda, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou, Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons, Adnane Hamid, Giulia Carella, Cedric Ngoungue Langue, Soulivanh Thao, and Valerie Gautard
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Anna Denvil-Sommer, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac
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Mathieu Vrac and Soulivanh Thao
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Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons and Davide Faranda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-352, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-352, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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The objective motivating this study is the assessment of the impacts of winter climate extremes, which requires accurate simulation of snowfall. However, climate simulation models contain physical approximations, which result in biases that must be corrected using past data as a reference. We show how to exploit simulated temperature and precipitation to estimate snowfall from already bias-corrected variables, without requiring the elaboration of complex, multivariate bias adjustment techniques.
Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 445–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-445-2020, 2020
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Despite the global temperature rise caused by anthropogenic emissions, we still observe heavy snowfalls that cause casualties, transport disruptions and energy supply problems. The goal of this paper is to investigate recent trends in snowfalls from reanalysis and observational datasets. The analysis shows an evident discrepancy between trends in average and extreme snowfalls. The latter can only be explained by looking at atmospheric circulation.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, 2020
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Emanuele Bevacqua, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1765–1782, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, 2020
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Coastal compound flooding (CF), caused by interacting storm surges and high water runoff, is typically studied based on concurring storm surge extremes with either precipitation or river discharge extremes. Globally, these two approaches show similar CF spatial patterns, especially where the CF potential is the highest. Deviations between the two approaches increase with the catchment size. The precipitation-based analysis allows for considering
local-rainfall-driven CF and CF in small rivers.
Bastien François, Mathieu Vrac, Alex J. Cannon, Yoann Robin, and Denis Allard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 537–562, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-537-2020, 2020
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Recently, multivariate bias correction (MBC) methods designed to adjust climate simulations have been proposed. However, they use different approaches, leading potentially to different results. Therefore, this study intends to intercompare four existing MBC methods to provide end users with aid in choosing such methods for their applications. To do so, a wide range of evaluation criteria have been used to assess the ability of MBC methods to correct statistical properties of climate models.
Eric Pohl, Christophe Grenier, Mathieu Vrac, and Masa Kageyama
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Existing approaches to quantify the emergence of climate change require several user choices that make these approaches less objective. We present an approach that uses a minimum number of choices and showcase its application in the extremely sensitive, permafrost-dominated region of eastern Siberia. Designed as a Python toolbox, it allows for incorporating climate model, reanalysis, and in situ data to make use of numerous existing data sources and reduce uncertainties in obtained estimates.
Lionel Benoit, Mathieu Vrac, and Gregoire Mariethoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2841–2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2841-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2841-2020, 2020
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At subdaily resolution, rain intensity exhibits a strong variability in space and time due to the diversity of processes that produce rain (e.g., frontal storms, mesoscale convective systems and local convection). In this paper we explore a new method to simulate rain type time series conditional to meteorological covariates. Afterwards, we apply stochastic rain type simulation to the downscaling of precipitation of a regional climate model.
Florentin Breton, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou, Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, and Aglaé Jézéquel
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-26, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We investigate North Atlantic weather seasonality over 1979–2100 by classifying year-round fields of 500 hPa geopotential height from one reanalysis dataset and 12 climate models. Generally, models have seasonal structures similar to the reanalyses. Historical winter (summer) conditions decrease (increase), due to uniform Z500 increase (i.e. uniform warming). However, relative to the increasing Z500 seasonal cycle, future seasonality (spatial patterns, seasonal cycle) appears almost stationary.
Brett Metcalfe, Bryan C. Lougheed, Claire Waelbroeck, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 16, 885–910, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-885-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-885-2020, 2020
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Planktonic foraminifera construct a shell that, post mortem, settles to the seafloor, prior to collection by Palaeoclimatologists for use as proxies. Such organisms in life are sensitive to the ambient conditions (e.g. temperature, salinity), which therefore means our proxies maybe skewed toward the ecology of organisms. Using a proxy system model, Foraminifera as Modelled Entities (FAME), we assess the potential of extracting ENSO signal from tropical Pacific planktonic foraminifera.
Lise Missiaen, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier M. Roche, Jean-Claude Dutay, Aurélien Quiquet, Claire Waelbroeck, Sylvain Pichat, and Jean-Yves Peterschmitt
Clim. Past, 16, 867–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-867-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-867-2020, 2020
Jérôme Kaiser, Norbert Wasmund, Mati Kahru, Anna K. Wittenborn, Regina Hansen, Katharina Häusler, Matthias Moros, Detlef Schulz-Bull, and Helge W. Arz
Biogeosciences, 17, 2579–2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2579-2020, 2020
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Cyanobacterial blooms represent a threat to the Baltic Sea ecosystem, causing deoxygenation of the bottom water. In order to understand the natural versus anthropogenic factors driving these blooms, it is necessary to study long-term trends beyond observations. We have produced a record of cyanobacterial blooms since 1860 using organic molecules (biomarkers) preserved in sediments. Cyanobacterial blooms in the Baltic Sea are likely mainly related to temperature variability.
Bryan C. Lougheed, Philippa Ascough, Andrew M. Dolman, Ludvig Löwemark, and Brett Metcalfe
Geochronology, 2, 17–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2-17-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2-17-2020, 2020
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The current geochronological state of the art for applying the radiocarbon (14C) method to deep-sea sediment archives lacks key information on sediment bioturbation, which could affect palaeoclimate interpretations made from deep-sea sediment. We use a computer model that simulates the 14C activity and bioturbation history of millions of single foraminifera at the sea floor, allowing us to evaluate the current state of the art at the most fundamental level.
Bryan C. Lougheed
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 155–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-155-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-155-2020, 2020
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Deep-sea sediment archives are made up of the calcareous tests of foraminifera, small sea dwelling organisms that record the Earth's past climate. Sediment cores retrieved from the sea floor contain sediment that is systematically bioturbated (mixed). The SEAMUS model of single foraminifera sedimentation and bioturbation allows users to quantify the error of bioturbation upon their foraminifera-derived climate reconstructions and radiocarbon dates.
Giulia Carella, Mathieu Vrac, Hélène Brogniez, Pascal Yiou, and Hélène Chepfer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1-2020, 2020
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Observations of relative humidity for ice clouds over the tropical oceans from a passive microwave sounder are downscaled by incorporating the high-resolution variability derived from simultaneous co-located cloud profiles from a lidar. By providing a method to generate pseudo-observations of relative humidity at high spatial resolution, this work will help revisit some of the current key barriers in atmospheric science.
Davide Faranda, Yuzuru Sato, Gabriele Messori, Nicholas R. Moloney, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 555–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, 2019
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We show how the complex dynamics of the jet stream at midlatitude can be described by a simple mathematical model. We match the properties of the model to those obtained by the jet data derived from observations.
Anna Denvil-Sommer, Marion Gehlen, Mathieu Vrac, and Carlos Mejia
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2091–2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2091-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2091-2019, 2019
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This work is dedicated to a new model that reconstructs the surface ocean partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) over the global ocean on a monthly 1°×1° grid. The model is based on a feed-forward neural network and represents the nonlinear relationships between pCO2 and the ocean drivers. Reconstructed pCO2 has a satisfying accuracy compared to independent observational data and shows a good agreement in seasonal and interannual variability with three existing mapping methods.
Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac, Philippe Naveau, and Pascal Yiou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 773–786, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-773-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-773-2019, 2019
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Bias correction methods are used to calibrate climate model outputs with respect to observations. In this article, a non-stationary, multivariate and stochastic bias correction method is developed based on optimal transport, accounting for inter-site and inter-variable correlations. Optimal transport allows us to construct a joint distribution that minimizes energy spent in bias correction. Our methodology is tested on precipitation and temperatures over 12 locations in southern France.
Lionel Benoit, Mathieu Vrac, and Gregoire Mariethoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5919–5933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5919-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5919-2018, 2018
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We propose a method for unsupervised classification of the space–time–intensity structure of weather radar images. The resulting classes are interpreted as rain types, i.e. pools of rain fields with homogeneous statistical properties. Rain types can in turn be used to define stationary periods for further stochastic rainfall modelling. The application of rain typing to real data indicates that non-stationarity can be significant within meteorological seasons, and even within a single storm.
Didier M. Roche, Claire Waelbroeck, Brett Metcalfe, and Thibaut Caley
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3587–3603, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3587-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3587-2018, 2018
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The oxygen-18 signal recorded in fossil planktonic foraminifers has been used for over 50 years in many geoscience applications. However, different planktonic foraminifer species from the same sediment core generally yield distinct oxygen-18 signals, as a consequence of their specific living habitat in the water column and along the year. To explicitly take into account this variability for five common planktonic species, we developed the portable module FAME (Foraminifers As Modeled Entities).
Sami A. Jokinen, Joonas J. Virtasalo, Tom Jilbert, Jérôme Kaiser, Olaf Dellwig, Helge W. Arz, Jari Hänninen, Laura Arppe, Miia Collander, and Timo Saarinen
Biogeosciences, 15, 3975–4001, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3975-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3975-2018, 2018
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Oxygen deficiency is a major environmental problem deteriorating seafloor habitats especially in the coastal ocean with large human impact. Here we apply a wide set of chemical and physical analyses to a 1500-year long sediment record and show that, although long-term climate variability has modulated seafloor oxygenation in the coastal northern Baltic Sea, the oxygen loss over the 20th century is unprecedentedly severe, emphasizing the need to reduce anthropogenic nutrient input in the future.
Guillaume Latombe, Ariane Burke, Mathieu Vrac, Guillaume Levavasseur, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, and Gilles Ramstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2563–2579, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2563-2018, 2018
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It is still unclear how climate conditions, and especially climate variability, influenced the spatial distribution of past human populations. Global climate models (GCMs) cannot simulate climate at sufficiently fine scale for this purpose. We propose a statistical method to obtain fine-scale climate projections for 15 000 years ago from coarse-scale GCM outputs. Our method agrees with local reconstructions from fossil and pollen data, and generates sensible climate variability maps over Europe.
Mathieu Vrac
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3175–3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3175-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3175-2018, 2018
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This study presents a multivariate bias correction method named R2D2 to adjust both the 1d-distributions and inter-variable/site dependence structures of climate simulations in a high-dimensional context, while providing some stochasticity. R2D2 is tested on temperature and precipitation reanalyses and illustrated on future simulations. In both cases, R2D2 is able to correct the spatial and physical dependence, opening proper use of climate simulations for impact (e.g. hydrological) models.
Bryan C. Lougheed, Brett Metcalfe, Ulysses S. Ninnemann, and Lukas Wacker
Clim. Past, 14, 515–526, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-515-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-515-2018, 2018
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Palaeoclimate reconstructions from deep-sea sediment archives provide valuable insight into past rapid climate change, but only a small proportion of the ocean is suitable for such reconstructions using the existing state of the art, i.e. the age–depth approach. We use dual radiocarbon (14C) and stable isotope analysis on single foraminifera to bypass the long-standing age–depth approach, thus facilitating past ocean chemistry reconstructions from vast, previously untapped ocean areas.
Adjoua Moise Famien, Serge Janicot, Abe Delfin Ochou, Mathieu Vrac, Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, and Thomas Noël
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 313–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-313-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-313-2018, 2018
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This study uses the cumulative distribution function transform (CDF-t) method to provide bias-corrected data over Africa using WFDEI as a reference dataset. It is shown that CDF-t is very effective in removing the biases and reducing the high inter-GCM scattering. Differences with other bias-corrected GCM data are mainly due to the differences among the reference datasets, particularly for surface downwelling shortwave radiation, which has a significant impact in terms of simulated maize yields.
Björn Klaes, Rolf Kilian, Gerhard Wörner, Sören Thiele-Bruhn, and Helge W. Arz
E&G Quaternary Sci. J., 67, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-67-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-67-1-2018, 2018
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, and Pascal Yiou
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 713–725, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-713-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-713-2017, 2017
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We study the dynamical properties of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation by analysing the sea-level pressure, 2 m temperature, and precipitation frequency field over the period 1948–2013. The metrics are linked to the predictability and the persistence of the atmospheric flows. We study the dependence on the seasonal cycle and the fields corresponding to maxima and minima of the dynamical indicators.
Emanuele Bevacqua, Douglas Maraun, Ingrid Hobæk Haff, Martin Widmann, and Mathieu Vrac
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2701–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, 2017
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We develop a conceptual model to quantify the risk of compound events (CEs), i.e. extreme impacts to society which are driven by statistically dependent climatic variables. Based on this model we study compound floods, i.e. joint storm surge and high river level, in Ravenna (Italy). The model includes meteorological predictors which (1) provide insight into the physical processes underlying CEs, as well as into the temporal variability, and (2) allow us to statistically downscale CEs.
Pascal Yiou, Aglaé Jézéquel, Philippe Naveau, Frederike E. L. Otto, Robert Vautard, and Mathieu Vrac
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 3, 17–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-17-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-17-2017, 2017
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The attribution of classes of extreme events, such as heavy precipitation or heatwaves, relies on the estimate of small probabilities (with and without climate change). Such events are connected to the large-scale atmospheric circulation. This paper links such probabilities with properties of the atmospheric circulation by using a Bayesian decomposition. We test this decomposition on a case of extreme precipitation in the UK, in January 2014.
Claudia Volosciuk, Douglas Maraun, Mathieu Vrac, and Martin Widmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1693–1719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1693-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1693-2017, 2017
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For impact modeling, infrastructure design, or adaptation strategy planning, high-quality climate data on the point scale are often demanded. Due to the scale gap between gridbox and point scale and biases in climate models, we combine a statistical bias correction and a stochastic downscaling model and apply it to climate model-simulated precipitation. The method performs better in summer than in winter and in winter best for mild winter climate (Mediterranean) and worst for continental winter.
Quentin Dubois-Dauphin, Paolo Montagna, Giuseppe Siani, Eric Douville, Claudia Wienberg, Dierk Hebbeln, Zhifei Liu, Nejib Kallel, Arnaud Dapoigny, Marie Revel, Edwige Pons-Branchu, Marco Taviani, and Christophe Colin
Clim. Past, 13, 17–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-17-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-17-2017, 2017
Pierre Burckel, Claire Waelbroeck, Yiming Luo, Didier M. Roche, Sylvain Pichat, Samuel L. Jaccard, Jeanne Gherardi, Aline Govin, Jörg Lippold, and François Thil
Clim. Past, 12, 2061–2075, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2061-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2061-2016, 2016
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In this paper, we compare new and published Atlantic sedimentary Pa/Th data with Pa/Th simulated using stream functions generated under various climatic conditions. We show that during Greenland interstadials of the 20–50 ka period, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation was very different from that of the Holocene. Moreover, southern-sourced waters dominated the Atlantic during Heinrich stadial 2, a slow northern-sourced water mass flowing above 2500 m in the North Atlantic.
Jérôme Pernin, Mathieu Vrac, Cyril Crevoisier, and Alain Chédin
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 2, 115–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-115-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-115-2016, 2016
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Here, we propose a classification methodology of various space-time atmospheric datasets into discrete air mass groups homogeneous in temperature and humidity through a probabilistic point of view: both the classification process and the data are probabilistic. Unlike conventional classification algorithms, this methodology provides the probability of belonging to each class as well as the corresponding uncertainty, which can be used in various applications.
Timothé Bolliet, Patrick Brockmann, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Franck Bassinot, Valérie Daux, Dominique Genty, Amaelle Landais, Marlène Lavrieux, Elisabeth Michel, Pablo Ortega, Camille Risi, Didier M. Roche, Françoise Vimeux, and Claire Waelbroeck
Clim. Past, 12, 1693–1719, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1693-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1693-2016, 2016
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This paper presents a new database of past climate proxies which aims to facilitate the distribution of data by using a user-friendly interface. Available data from the last 40 years are often fragmented, with lots of different formats, and online libraries are sometimes nonintuitive. We thus built a new dynamic web portal for data browsing, visualizing, and batch downloading of hundreds of datasets presenting a homogeneous format.
Davide Faranda and Dimitri Defrance
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 517–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-517-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-517-2016, 2016
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We introduce a general technique to detect a climate change signal in the coherent and turbulent components of the atmospheric circulation. Our analysis suggests that the coherent components (atmospheric waves, long-term oscillations) will experience the greatest changes in future climate, proportionally to the greenhouse gas emission scenario considered.
Marianne Bügelmayer-Blaschek, Didier M. Roche, Hans Renssen, and Claire Waelbroeck
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-31, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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Using the global isotope-enabled climate – iceberg model iLOVECLIM we performed three experiments to investigate the mechanisms behind the simulated δ18Ocalcite pattern applying a Heinrich event like iceberg forcing. Our model results display two main patterns in the δ18Ocalcite signal. First, we find regions that display almost no response in δ18Ocalcite and second, regions where the δ18Ocalcite pattern closely follows the δ18Oseawater signal.
Benjamin Grouillet, Denis Ruelland, Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, and Mathieu Vrac
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1031–1047, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1031-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1031-2016, 2016
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This original paper provides a guideline to select statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) in climate change impact studies (CCIS) to minimize uncertainty from downscaling. Three SDMs were applied to NCEP reanalysis and 2 GCM data values. We then analyzed the sensitivity of the hydrological model to the various downscaled data via 5 hydrological indicators representing the main features of the hydrograph. Our results enable selection of the appropriate SDMs to be used to build climate scenarios.
M. Mihelich, D. Faranda, B. Dubrulle, and D. Paillard
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 187–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-187-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-187-2015, 2015
H. Kuehn, L. Lembke-Jene, R. Gersonde, O. Esper, F. Lamy, H. Arz, G. Kuhn, and R. Tiedemann
Clim. Past, 10, 2215–2236, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2215-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2215-2014, 2014
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Annually laminated sediments from the NE Bering Sea reveal a decadal-scale correlation to Greenland ice core records during termination I, suggesting an atmospheric teleconnection. Lamination occurrence is tightly coupled to Bølling-Allerød and Preboreal warm phases. Increases in export production, closely coupled to SST and sea ice changes, are hypothesized to be a main cause of deglacial anoxia, rather than changes in overturning/ventilation rates of mid-depth waters entering the Bering Sea.
L. S. Shumilovskikh, D. Fleitmann, N. R. Nowaczyk, H. Behling, F. Marret, A. Wegwerth, and H. W. Arz
Clim. Past, 10, 939–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-939-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-939-2014, 2014
P. Yiou, M. Boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, E. Garnier, F. Fluteau, and L. Menut
Clim. Past, 10, 797–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-797-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-797-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Ocean Dynamics | Archive: Marine Archives | Timescale: Millenial/D-O
Leeuwin Current dynamics over the last 60 kyr – relation to Australian ecosystem and Southern Ocean change
Plateaus and jumps in the atmospheric radiocarbon record – potential origin and value as global age markers for glacial-to-deglacial paleoceanography, a synthesis
Millennial-scale variations in sedimentary oxygenation in the western subtropical North Pacific and its links to North Atlantic climate
Regional seesaw between the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas during the last glacial abrupt climate events
Changes in the geometry and strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last glacial (20–50 ka)
Stratification of surface waters during the last glacial millennial climatic events: a key factor in subsurface and deep-water mass dynamics
Parallelisms between sea surface temperature changes in the western tropical Atlantic (Guiana Basin) and high latitude climate signals over the last 140 000 years
Thermal evolution of the western South Atlantic and the adjacent continent during Termination 1
Bottom water variability in the subtropical northwestern Pacific from 26 kyr BP to present based on Mg / Ca and stable carbon and oxygen isotopes of benthic foraminifera
Early deglacial Atlantic overturning decline and its role in atmospheric CO2 rise inferred from carbon isotopes (δ13C)
Millennial meridional dynamics of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool during the last termination
Pulses of enhanced North Pacific Intermediate Water ventilation from the Okhotsk Sea and Bering Sea during the last deglaciation
Persistent millennial-scale link between Greenland climate and northern Pacific Oxygen Minimum Zone under interglacial conditions
Deglacial intermediate water reorganization: new evidence from the Indian Ocean
Water mass evolution of the Greenland Sea since late glacial times
Millennial-scale variability of marine productivity and terrigenous matter supply in the western Bering Sea over the past 180 kyr
An ocean–ice coupled response during the last glacial: a view from a marine isotopic stage 3 record south of the Faeroe Shetland Gateway
Timing and magnitude of equatorial Atlantic surface warming during the last glacial bipolar oscillation
Dirk Nürnberg, Akintunde Kayode, Karl J. F. Meier, and Cyrus Karas
Clim. Past, 18, 2483–2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2483-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2483-2022, 2022
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The Leeuwin Current to the west of Australia steers the heat exchange between the tropical and the subantarctic ocean areas. Its prominent variability during the last glacial effectively shaped the Australian ecosystem and was closely related to the dynamics of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. At ~ 43 ka BP, the rapidly weakening Leeuwin Current, the ecological response in Australia, and human interference likely caused the extinction of the exotic Australian megafauna.
Michael Sarnthein, Kevin Küssner, Pieter M. Grootes, Blanca Ausin, Timothy Eglinton, Juan Muglia, Raimund Muscheler, and Gordon Schlolaut
Clim. Past, 16, 2547–2571, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2547-2020, 2020
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The dating technique of 14C plateau tuning uses U/Th-based model ages, refinements of the Lake Suigetsu age scale, and the link of surface ocean carbon to the globally mixed atmosphere as basis of age correlation. Our synthesis employs data of 20 sediment cores from the global ocean and offers a coherent picture of global ocean circulation evolving over glacial-to-deglacial times on semi-millennial scales to be compared with climate records stored in marine sediments, ice cores, and speleothems.
Jianjun Zou, Xuefa Shi, Aimei Zhu, Selvaraj Kandasamy, Xun Gong, Lester Lembke-Jene, Min-Te Chen, Yonghua Wu, Shulan Ge, Yanguang Liu, Xinru Xue, Gerrit Lohmann, and Ralf Tiedemann
Clim. Past, 16, 387–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-387-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-387-2020, 2020
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Large-scale reorganization of global ocean circulation has been documented in a variety of marine archives, including the enhanced North Pacific Intermediate Water NPIW. Our data support both the model- and data-based ideas that the enhanced NPIW mainly developed during cold spells, while an expansion of oxygen-poor zones occurred at warming intervals (Bölling-Alleröd).
Mélanie Wary, Frédérique Eynaud, Didier Swingedouw, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Jens Matthiessen, Catherine Kissel, Jena Zumaque, Linda Rossignol, and Jean Jouzel
Clim. Past, 13, 729–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-729-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-729-2017, 2017
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The last glacial period was punctuated by abrupt climatic variations, whose cold atmospheric phases have been commonly associated with cold sea-surface temperatures and expansion of sea ice in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas. Here we provide direct evidence of a regional paradoxical see-saw pattern: cold Greenland and North Atlantic phases coincide with warmer sea-surface conditions and shorter seasonal sea-ice cover durations in the Norwegian Sea as compared to warm phases.
Pierre Burckel, Claire Waelbroeck, Yiming Luo, Didier M. Roche, Sylvain Pichat, Samuel L. Jaccard, Jeanne Gherardi, Aline Govin, Jörg Lippold, and François Thil
Clim. Past, 12, 2061–2075, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2061-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2061-2016, 2016
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In this paper, we compare new and published Atlantic sedimentary Pa/Th data with Pa/Th simulated using stream functions generated under various climatic conditions. We show that during Greenland interstadials of the 20–50 ka period, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation was very different from that of the Holocene. Moreover, southern-sourced waters dominated the Atlantic during Heinrich stadial 2, a slow northern-sourced water mass flowing above 2500 m in the North Atlantic.
M. Wary, F. Eynaud, M. Sabine, S. Zaragosi, L. Rossignol, B. Malaizé, E. Palis, J. Zumaque, C. Caulle, A. Penaud, E. Michel, and K. Charlier
Clim. Past, 11, 1507–1525, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1507-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1507-2015, 2015
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This study reports the hydrological variations recorded at different depths of the water column SW of the Faeroe Is. during the last glacial abrupt climatic events (Heinrich events and Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles). Our combined multiproxy and high-resolution approach allows us to evidence that 1) Greenland and Heinrich stadials were characterized by strong stratification of surface waters, 2) this surface stratification seems to have played a key role in the dynamics of the underlying water masses
O. Rama-Corredor, B. Martrat, J. O. Grimalt, G. E. López-Otalvaro, J. A. Flores, and F. Sierro
Clim. Past, 11, 1297–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1297-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1297-2015, 2015
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The alkenone sea surface temperatures in the Guiana Basin show a rapid transmission of the climate variability from arctic to tropical latitudes during the last two interglacials (MIS1 and MIS5e) and warm long interstadials (MIS5d-a). In contrast, the abrupt variability of the glacial interval does follow the North Atlantic climate but is also shaped by precessional changes. This arctic to tropical decoupling occurs when the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is substantially reduced.
C. M. Chiessi, S. Mulitza, G. Mollenhauer, J. B. Silva, J. Groeneveld, and M. Prange
Clim. Past, 11, 915–929, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-915-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-915-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show that temperatures in the western South Atlantic increased markedly during the major slowdown event of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) of the last deglaciation. Over the adjacent continent, however, temperatures followed the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide, lagging changes in oceanic temperature. Our records corroborate the notion that the long duration of the major slowdown event of the AMOC was fundamental in driving the Earth out of the last glacial.
Y. Kubota, K. Kimoto, T. Itaki, Y. Yokoyama, Y. Miyairi, and H. Matsuzaki
Clim. Past, 11, 803–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-803-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-803-2015, 2015
A. Schmittner and D. C. Lund
Clim. Past, 11, 135–152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-135-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-135-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Model simulations of carbon isotope changes as a result of a reduction in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) agree well with sediment data from the early last deglaciation, supporting the idea that the AMOC was substantially reduced during that time period of global warming. We hypothesize, and present supporting evidence, that changes in the AMOC may have caused the coeval rise in atmospheric CO2, owing to a reduction in the efficiency of the ocean's biological pump.
L. Lo, C.-C. Shen, K.-Y. Wei, G. S. Burr, H.-S. Mii, M.-T. Chen, S.-Y. Lee, and M.-C. Tsai
Clim. Past, 10, 2253–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2253-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2253-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
1. We have reconstructed new meridional thermal and precipitation stacked records in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) during the last termination.
2. Meridional thermal gradient variations in the IPWP show tight links to the Northern Hemisphere millennial timescales event.
3. Anomalous warming in the south IPWP region could induce the southward shifting of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the IPWP during the Heinrich 1 and Younger Dryas events.
L. Max, L. Lembke-Jene, J.-R. Riethdorf, R. Tiedemann, D. Nürnberg, H. Kühn, and A. Mackensen
Clim. Past, 10, 591–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-591-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-591-2014, 2014
O. Cartapanis, K. Tachikawa, O. E. Romero, and E. Bard
Clim. Past, 10, 405–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-405-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-405-2014, 2014
S. Romahn, A. Mackensen, J. Groeneveld, and J. Pätzold
Clim. Past, 10, 293–303, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-293-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-293-2014, 2014
M. M. Telesiński, R. F. Spielhagen, and H. A. Bauch
Clim. Past, 10, 123–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-123-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-123-2014, 2014
J.-R. Riethdorf, D. Nürnberg, L. Max, R. Tiedemann, S. A. Gorbarenko, and M. I. Malakhov
Clim. Past, 9, 1345–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1345-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1345-2013, 2013
J. Zumaque, F. Eynaud, S. Zaragosi, F. Marret, K. M. Matsuzaki, C. Kissel, D. M. Roche, B. Malaizé, E. Michel, I. Billy, T. Richter, and E. Palis
Clim. Past, 8, 1997–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1997-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1997-2012, 2012
S. Weldeab
Clim. Past, 8, 1705–1716, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1705-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1705-2012, 2012
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Short summary
Recording the precise timing and sequence of events is essential for understanding rapid climate changes and improving climate model predictive skills. Here, we precisely assess the relative timing between ocean and atmospheric changes, both recorded in the same deep-sea core over the last 45 kyr. We show that decreased mid-depth water mass transport in the western equatorial Atlantic preceded increased rainfall over the adjacent continent by 120 to 980 yr, depending on the type of climate event.
Recording the precise timing and sequence of events is essential for understanding rapid climate...
