Articles | Volume 14, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1135-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1135-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Aug 2018
Research article |
| 09 Aug 2018
| 09 Aug 2018
Variation of extreme drought and flood in North China revealed by document-based seasonal precipitation reconstruction for the past 300 years
Jingyun Zheng
Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of
Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Yingzhuo Yu
Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of
Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Xuezhen Zhang
Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of
Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Zhixin Hao
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of
Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Related authors
Zhixin Hao, Meirun Jiang, Haonan Yang, Danyang Xiong, and Jingyun Zheng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-111, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
At ancient time, social system could successfully responded most extreme climate events, such as droughts. To explore society’s adaptability to extreme climate events, we chosen the 1759 drought as a typical case study, then reconstructed the meteorological distribution of drought spatially and temporally, analyzed the impacts of the drought on society, and summarized the adaptive measures employed at the time.
Zhixin Hao, Haonan Yang, Meirun Jiang, Danyang Xiong, and Jingyun Zheng
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-40, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-40, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
At ancient time, social systems could successfully responded most extreme climate events, such as droughts. To explore society’s adaptability to extreme climate events, we chosen the 1759 drought as a typical case study. We collected historical records on climate as well as on crop harvests and failures, then reconstructed the meteorological distribution of drought spatially and temporally, analyzed the impacts of the drought on society, and summarized the adaptive measures employed at the time.
Yang Liu, Jingyun Zheng, Zhixin Hao, and Quansheng Ge
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5717–5735, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5717-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5717-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Proxy-based precipitation reconstruction is essential to study the inter-annual to decadal variability and underlying mechanisms beyond the instrumental period that is critical for climate modeling, prediction and attribution. We present a set of standard precipitation index reconstructions for the whole year and wet seasons over the whole of Asia since 1700, with the spatial resolution of 2.5°, based on 2912 annually resolved proxy series mainly derived from tree rings and historical documents.
Zhixin Hao, Maowei Wu, Jingyun Zheng, Jiewei Chen, Xuezhen Zhang, and Shiwei Luo
Clim. Past, 16, 101–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-101-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-101-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Using reconstructed extreme drought/flood chronologies and grain harvest series derived from historical documents, it is found that the frequency of reporting of extreme droughts in any subregion of eastern China was significantly associated with lower reconstructed harvests during 801–1910. The association was weak during the warm epoch of 920–1300 but strong during the cold epoch of 1310–1880, which indicates that a warm climate might weaken the impact of extreme drought on poor harvests.
J. Zheng, Z. Hua, Y. Liu, and Z. Hao
Clim. Past, 11, 1553–1561, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1553-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1553-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we reconstruct the annual temperature anomalies in South Central China from 1850 to 2008, using phenodates of plants, snowfall days, and five tree-ring width chronologies. It is found that rapid warming has occurred since the 1990s, with an abrupt change around 1997, leading to unprecedented variability in warming; a cold interval dominated the 1860s, 1890s, and 1950s; warm decades occurred around 1850, 1870, and 1960; and the warmest decades were the 1990s–2000s.
Q. Ge, Z. Hao, J. Zheng, and X. Shao
Clim. Past, 9, 1153–1160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1153-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1153-2013, 2013
Zhixin Hao, Meirun Jiang, Haonan Yang, Danyang Xiong, and Jingyun Zheng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-111, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
At ancient time, social system could successfully responded most extreme climate events, such as droughts. To explore society’s adaptability to extreme climate events, we chosen the 1759 drought as a typical case study, then reconstructed the meteorological distribution of drought spatially and temporally, analyzed the impacts of the drought on society, and summarized the adaptive measures employed at the time.
Shuaifeng Song, Xuezhen Zhang, and Xiaodong Yan
Biogeosciences, 21, 2839–2858, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2839-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2839-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped the distribution of future potential afforestation regions based on future high-resolution climate data and climate–vegetation models. After considering the national afforestation policy and climate change, we found that the future potential afforestation region was mainly located around and to the east of the Hu Line. This study provides a dataset for exploring the effects of future afforestation.
Zhixin Hao, Haonan Yang, Meirun Jiang, Danyang Xiong, and Jingyun Zheng
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-40, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-40, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
At ancient time, social systems could successfully responded most extreme climate events, such as droughts. To explore society’s adaptability to extreme climate events, we chosen the 1759 drought as a typical case study. We collected historical records on climate as well as on crop harvests and failures, then reconstructed the meteorological distribution of drought spatially and temporally, analyzed the impacts of the drought on society, and summarized the adaptive measures employed at the time.
Yang Liu, Jingyun Zheng, Zhixin Hao, and Quansheng Ge
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5717–5735, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5717-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5717-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Proxy-based precipitation reconstruction is essential to study the inter-annual to decadal variability and underlying mechanisms beyond the instrumental period that is critical for climate modeling, prediction and attribution. We present a set of standard precipitation index reconstructions for the whole year and wet seasons over the whole of Asia since 1700, with the spatial resolution of 2.5°, based on 2912 annually resolved proxy series mainly derived from tree rings and historical documents.
Xiaodan Zhang, Guoyu Ren, Yuda Yang, He Bing, Zhixin Hao, and Panfeng Zhang
Clim. Past, 18, 1775–1796, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1775-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Applying yearly drought and flood records from historical documents and precipitation data in the period of instrumental measurements, this study constructs a time series of extreme droughts and floods in the Hanjiang River Basin from 1426–2017 and analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of the extreme drought and flood event variations.
Zhixin Hao, Maowei Wu, Jingyun Zheng, Jiewei Chen, Xuezhen Zhang, and Shiwei Luo
Clim. Past, 16, 101–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-101-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-101-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Using reconstructed extreme drought/flood chronologies and grain harvest series derived from historical documents, it is found that the frequency of reporting of extreme droughts in any subregion of eastern China was significantly associated with lower reconstructed harvests during 801–1910. The association was weak during the warm epoch of 920–1300 but strong during the cold epoch of 1310–1880, which indicates that a warm climate might weaken the impact of extreme drought on poor harvests.
J. Zheng, Z. Hua, Y. Liu, and Z. Hao
Clim. Past, 11, 1553–1561, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1553-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1553-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we reconstruct the annual temperature anomalies in South Central China from 1850 to 2008, using phenodates of plants, snowfall days, and five tree-ring width chronologies. It is found that rapid warming has occurred since the 1990s, with an abrupt change around 1997, leading to unprecedented variability in warming; a cold interval dominated the 1860s, 1890s, and 1950s; warm decades occurred around 1850, 1870, and 1960; and the warmest decades were the 1990s–2000s.
Q. Ge, Z. Hao, J. Zheng, and X. Shao
Clim. Past, 9, 1153–1160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1153-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1153-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Historical Records | Timescale: Decadal-Seasonal
Weather and climate and their human impacts and responses during the Thirty Years' War in central Europe
A global inventory of quantitative documentary evidence related to climate since the 15th century
The 1600 CE Huaynaputina eruption as a possible trigger for persistent cooling in the North Atlantic region
Analysis of early Japanese meteorological data and historical weather documents to reconstruct the winter climate between the 1840s and the early 1850s
Climate indices in historical climate reconstructions: a global state of the art
Could phenological records from Chinese poems of the Tang and Song dynasties (618–1279 CE) be reliable evidence of past climate changes?
Central Europe, 1531–1540 CE: The driest summer decade of the past five centuries?
“Everything is scorched by the burning sun”: missionary perspectives and experiences of 19th- and early 20th-century droughts in semi-arid central Namibia
Patterns in data of extreme droughts/floods and harvest grades derived from historical documents in eastern China during 801–1910
The extreme drought of 1842 in Europe as described by both documentary data and instrumental measurements
The climate in south-east Moravia, Czech Republic, 1803–1830, based on daily weather records kept by the Reverend Šimon Hausner
The climate of Granada (southern Spain) during the first third of the 18th century (1706–1730) according to documentary sources
Extracting weather information from a plantation document
300 years of hydrological records and societal responses to droughts and floods on the Pacific coast of Central America
Multi-proxy reconstructions of May–September precipitation field in China over the past 500 years
Climatic effects and impacts of the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in the Czech Lands
Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century based on documentary evidence
Observations of a stratospheric aerosol veil from a tropical volcanic eruption in December 1808: is this the Unknown ∼1809 eruption?
Documentary-derived chronologies of rainfall variability in Antigua, Lesser Antilles, 1770–1890
An underestimated record breaking event – why summer 1540 was likely warmer than 2003
Snow and weather climatic control on snow avalanche occurrence fluctuations over 50 yr in the French Alps
Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the period 1701–1850 based on documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations
Spring-summer temperatures reconstructed for northern Switzerland and southwestern Germany from winter rye harvest dates, 1454–1970
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Christian Pfister, Katrin Kleemann, Kateřina Chromá, Péter Szabó, and Piotr Olinski
Clim. Past, 19, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Thirty Years' War (from 1618 to 1648 CE), an armed military conflict in Europe, brought extensive devastation to Europe. The paper analyses annual and seasonal temperature, precipitation, and drought patterns, as well as severe weather extremes, based particularly on documentary data, during this event in central Europe to demonstrate their broad impacts on human society and human responses in coincidence with weather and climate during this period of hardship.
Angela-Maria Burgdorf
Clim. Past, 18, 1407–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1407-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1407-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This comprehensive inventory of quantitative documentary evidence related to climate extending back to 1400 CE promotes the first ever global perspective on documentary climate records. It lays the foundation for incorporating documentary evidence from archives of societies into global-scale climate reconstructions, complementing (early) instrumental measurements and natural climate proxies. Documentary records are particularly relevant in seasons and regions poorly covered by natural proxies.
Sam White, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Davide Zanchettin, Heli Huhtamaa, Dagomar Degroot, Markus Stoffel, and Christophe Corona
Clim. Past, 18, 739–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines whether the 1600 Huaynaputina volcano eruption triggered persistent cooling in the North Atlantic. It compares previous paleoclimate simulations with new climate reconstructions from natural proxies and historical documents and finds that the reconstructions are consistent with, but do not support, an eruption trigger for persistent cooling. The study also analyzes societal impacts of climatic change in ca. 1600 and the use of historical observations in model–data comparison.
Junpei Hirano, Takehiko Mikami, and Masumi Zaiki
Clim. Past, 18, 327–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-327-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-327-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The East Asian winter monsoon causes orographic snowfall over the windward side of the Japanese islands (facing the Sea of Japan and the northwesterly winter monsoon flow) and negative temperature anomalies around Japan. In this study, we reconstruct the outbreak of the winter monsoon around Japan for the winter from the 1840s to the early 1850s by using daily weather information recorded in old Japanese diaries and early daily instrumental temperature data.
David J. Nash, George C. D. Adamson, Linden Ashcroft, Martin Bauch, Chantal Camenisch, Dagomar Degroot, Joelle Gergis, Adrian Jusopović, Thomas Labbé, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Sharon D. Nicholson, Qing Pei, María del Rosario Prieto, Ursula Rack, Facundo Rojas, and Sam White
Clim. Past, 17, 1273–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1273-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Qualitative evidence contained within historical sources provides an important record of climate variability for periods prior to the onset of systematic meteorological data collection. Before such evidence can be used for climate reconstructions, it needs to be converted to a quantitative format. A common approach is the generation of ordinal-scale climate indices. This review, written by members of the PAGES CRIAS working group, provides a global synthesis of the use of the index approach.
Yachen Liu, Xiuqi Fang, Junhu Dai, Huanjiong Wang, and Zexing Tao
Clim. Past, 17, 929–950, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-929-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
There are controversies about whether poetry can be used as one of the evidence sources for past climate changes. We tried to discuss the reliability and validity of phenological records from poems of the Tang and Song dynasties (618–1279 CE) by analyzing their certainties and uncertainties. A standardized processing method for phenological records from poems is introduced. We hope that this study can provide a reference for the extraction and application of phenological records from poems.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Martin Bauch, Chantal Camenisch, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Piotr Oliński, and Ladislava Řezníčková
Clim. Past, 16, 2125–2151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies related to historical droughts in the Czech Lands showed that the summers of 1531–1540 could represent the driest summer decade of the past 500 years. To confirm this hypothesis, documentary data from central Europe were collected and presented for individual summers and complemented by maps of precipitation and drought distribution to document corresponding weather patterns and their various impacts. The main droughts occurred in 1532, 1534–1536, 1538, and particularly in 1540.
Stefan Grab and Tizian Zumthurm
Clim. Past, 16, 679–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-679-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-679-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Here we describe the unique nature of droughts over semi-arid central Namibia (southern Africa) between 1850 and 1920. We establish temporal shifts in the influence and impact that historical droughts had on society and the environment during this period. The paper demonstrates and argues that human experience and the associated reporting of drought events depend strongly on social, environmental, spatial, and societal developmental situations and perspectives.
Zhixin Hao, Maowei Wu, Jingyun Zheng, Jiewei Chen, Xuezhen Zhang, and Shiwei Luo
Clim. Past, 16, 101–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-101-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-101-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Using reconstructed extreme drought/flood chronologies and grain harvest series derived from historical documents, it is found that the frequency of reporting of extreme droughts in any subregion of eastern China was significantly associated with lower reconstructed harvests during 801–1910. The association was weak during the warm epoch of 920–1300 but strong during the cold epoch of 1310–1880, which indicates that a warm climate might weaken the impact of extreme drought on poor harvests.
Rudolf Brázdil, Gaston R. Demarée, Andrea Kiss, Petr Dobrovolný, Kateřina Chromá, Miroslav Trnka, Lukáš Dolák, Ladislava Řezníčková, Pavel Zahradníček, Danuta Limanowka, and Sylvie Jourdain
Clim. Past, 15, 1861–1884, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1861-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1861-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents analysis of the 1842 drought in Europe (except the Mediterranean) based on documentary data and instrumental records. First the meteorological background of this drought is shown (seasonal distribution of precipitation, annual variation of temperature, precipitation and drought indices, synoptic reasons) and effects of drought on water management, agriculture, and in society are described in detail with particular attention to human responses.
Rudolf Brázdil, Hubert Valášek, Kateřina Chromá, Lukáš Dolák, Ladislava Řezníčková, Monika Bělínová, Adam Valík, and Pavel Zahradníček
Clim. Past, 15, 1205–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1205-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1205-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper analyses a weather diary of the Reverend Šimon Hausner from Buchlovice in south-east Moravia, Czech Republic, in the 1803–1831 period. From daily weather records, series of numbers of precipitation days, cloudiness, strong winds, fogs, and thunderstorms were created. These records were further used to interpret weighted temperature and precipitation indices. Records of Šimon Hausner represent an important contribution to the study of climate fluctuations on the central European scale.
Fernando S. Rodrigo
Clim. Past, 15, 647–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-647-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-647-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The climate of Granada (southern Spain) during the first third of the 18th century is reconstructed. Results suggest that climatic conditions were similar to those of the first decades of the 20th century, when the global warming signal was of less importance than today. In addition, the paper presents the instrumental data taken in Granada in 1729, probably the first instrumental meteorological data recorded in Spain. Some extreme events, such as the cold wave of winter 1729, are studied.
Gregory Burris, Jane Washburn, Omar Lasheen, Sophia Dorribo, James B. Elsner, and Ronald E. Doel
Clim. Past, 15, 477–492, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-477-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-477-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Historical documents are full of untapped data on past climate conditions. Our paper sets out a method for extracting this information into a database that is easily utilized by climate scientists. We apply this method to a document from Shirley Plantation covering the years 1816–1842. We then provide two case studies to demonstrate the validity and utility of the new method and database.
Alvaro Guevara-Murua, Caroline A. Williams, Erica J. Hendy, and Pablo Imbach
Clim. Past, 14, 175–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-175-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-175-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study reconstructs a new semi-quantitative rainfall index for the Pacific coast of Central America using documentary sources for the period 1640 to 1945. In addition, we explore the various mechanisms and processes that may explain inter-annual and inter-decadal rainfall variability over the Pacific coast of Central America.
Feng Shi, Sen Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, Hugues Goosse, and Qiuzhen Yin
Clim. Past, 13, 1919–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed the multi-proxy precipitation field for China over the past 500 years, which includes three leading modes (a monopole, a dipole, and a triple) of precipitation variability. The dipole mode may be controlled by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability. Such reconstruction is an essential source of information to document the climate variability over decadal to centennial timescales and can be used to assess the ability of climate models to simulate past climate change.
Rudolf Brázdil, Ladislava Řezníčková, Hubert Valášek, Lukáš Dolák, and Oldřich Kotyza
Clim. Past, 12, 1361–1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1361-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1361-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with climatic and human impacts of the strong Tambora (Indonesia) volcanic eruption in April 1815 over the Czech Lands territory based on analysis of documentary data and instrumental records. While climatic effects were related particularly to summers 1815 and 1816 (1816 is known as "a Year Without Summer"), quite important were societal impacts represented after bad harvest by steep increase in prices and shortages of food.
C. Camenisch
Clim. Past, 11, 1049–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1049-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1049-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper applies the methods of historical climatology to present a climate reconstruction for the area of the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century. The results are based on documentary evidence. Approximately 3000 written records derived from about 100 different sources were examined and converted into seasonal seven-degree indices of temperature and precipitation.
A. Guevara-Murua, C. A. Williams, E. J. Hendy, A. C. Rust, and K. V. Cashman
Clim. Past, 10, 1707–1722, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1707-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1707-2014, 2014
A. J. Berland, S. E. Metcalfe, and G. H. Endfield
Clim. Past, 9, 1331–1343, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1331-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1331-2013, 2013
O. Wetter and C. Pfister
Clim. Past, 9, 41–56, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-41-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-41-2013, 2013
H. Castebrunet, N. Eckert, and G. Giraud
Clim. Past, 8, 855–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-855-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-855-2012, 2012
F. S. Rodrigo, J. J. Gómez-Navarro, and J. P. Montávez Gómez
Clim. Past, 8, 117–133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-117-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-117-2012, 2012
O. Wetter and C. Pfister
Clim. Past, 7, 1307–1326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1307-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1307-2011, 2011
Cited articles
Braganza, K., Gergis, J. L., Power, S. B., Risbey, J. S., and Fowler, A. M.:
A multiproxy index of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, AD 1525–1982, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D05106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd010896, 2009.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science (CAMS): Yearly charts of
dryness/wetness in China for the last 500 years, Cartographic Publishing
House, Beijing, China, 1981 (in Chinese).
Chen, Z. and Yang, G.: Analysis of drought hazards in North China:
distribution and interpretation, Nat. Hazards, 65, 279–294, 2013.
Cook, E. R., Seager, R., Heim, R. R., Vose, R. S., Herweijer, C., and
Woodhouse, C.: Megadroughts in North America: Placing IPCC projections of
hydroclimatic change in a long-term palaeoclimate context, J. Quaternary
Sci., 25, 48–61, 2010.
Ding, Y. and Wang, H.: Newly acquired knowledge on the scientific issues
related to climate change over the recent 100 years in China, Chinese Sci.
Bull., 61, 1029–1041, 2016 (in Chinese).
Fang, X., Xiao, L., and Wei, Z.: Social impacts of the climatic shift around
the turn of the 19th century on the North China Plain, Sci. China Earth Sci.,
56, 1044–1058, 2013.
Feng, J., Wang, L., and Chen, W.: How Does the East Asian Summer Monsoon
Behave in the Decaying Phase of El Nino during Different PDO Phases?, J.
Clim., 27, 2682–2698, 2014.
Ge, Q., Zheng, J., Hao, Z., Zhang, P., and Wang, W.-C.: Reconstruction of
historical climate in China: High-resolution precipitation data from Qing
dynasty archives, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86, 671–679, 2005.
Ge, Q., Zheng, J., Hao, Z., Liu, Y., and Li, M.: Recent advances on
reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000
years, J. Geogr. Sci., 26, 827–854, 2016.
Gergis, J. L. and Fowler, A. M.: A history of ENSO events since AD 1525:
implications for future climate change, Climatic Change, 92, 343–387, 2009.
Global Volcanism Program: Volcanoes of the World, v. 4.6.2, edited by:
Venzke, E., Smithsonian Institution, downloaded 5 May 2017,
https://doi.org/10.5479/si.GVP.VOTW4-2013, 2013.
Hao, Z. X., Zheng, J. Y., and Ge, Q. S.: Precipitation cycles in the middle
and lower reaches of the Yellow River (1736–2000), J. Geogr. Sci., 18,
17–25, 2008.
Hao, Z., Ge, Q., and Zheng, J.: Variations of extreme drought/flood events
over eastern China during the past 2000 years, Climatic and Environmental
Research, 15, 388–394, 2010a (in Chinese).
Hao, Z., Zheng, J., Wu, G., Zhang, X., and Ge, Q.: 1876–1878 severe drought
in North China: facts, impacts and climatic background, Chinese Sci. Bull.,
55, 3001–3007, 2010b.
IPCC: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate
Change Adaptation, A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros,
V., Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Dokken, D. J., Ebi, K.L., Mastrandrea, M. D.,
Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M., and Midgley, P. M.,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA, 582 pp., 2012
IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K.,
Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and
Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA,
1535 pp., 2013.
Jiang, J., Zhang, D. E., and Fraedrich, K.: Historic climate variability of
wetness in East China (960–1992): A wavelet analysis, Int. J. Climatol., 17,
969–981, 1997.
Jiang, T., Zhang, Q., Blender, R., and Fraedrich, K.: Yangtze Delta floods
and droughts of the last millennium: Abrupt changes and long term memory,
Theor. Appl. Climatol., 82, 131–141, 2005.
Li, J., Xie, S.-P., Cook, E. R., Morales, M. S., Christie, D. A., Johnson,
N. C., Chen, F., D'Arrigo, R., Fowler, A. M., Gou, X., and Fang, K.: El Nino
modulations over the past seven centuries, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 822–826,
2013.
Li, Q., Nakatsuka, T., Kawamura, K., Liu, Y., and Song, H.: Hydroclimate
variability in the North China Plain and its link with El Niño–Southern
Oscillation since 1784 A.D.: Insights from tree-ring cellulose δ18O, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D22106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD015987, 2011.
Li, J., Xie, S.-P., Cook, E. R., Huang, G., D'Arrigo, R., Liu, F., Ma, J.,
and Zheng, X.-T.: Interdecadal modulation of El Nino amplitude during the
past millennium, Nat. Clim. Change, 1, 114–118, 2011.
Li, W., Cheng, X., Liu, Y., and Xia, M.: The ten greatest disasters in Modern
China, Shanghai People's Publishing House, Shanghai, China, 80–113, 1994 (in
Chinese).
Lu, R.: Interannual variation of North China rainfall in rainy season and
SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific, Chinese Sci. Bull., 50, 2069–2073,
2005.
Ma, Y., Wan, J., Ye, Y., and Fang, X.: Reconstruction of flood disaster
process in Haihe River drainage area in 1917, J. Palaeogeo., 17, 851–860,
2015 (in Chinese).
Man, Z.: Climatic Background of the Severe Drought in 1877, Fudan Journal
(Social Sciences Edition), 6, 28–35, 2000 (in Chinese).
McGregor, S., Timmermann, A., and Timm, O.: A unified proxy for ENSO and PDO
variability since 1650, Clim. Past, 6, 1–17,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-1-2010, 2010.
NOAA: Gergis and Fowler 2009 Multiproxy ENSO Event Reconstructions, available
at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/study/8408, last access: 7 August
2018.
Qian, W., Chen, D., Zhu, Y., and Shen, H.: Temporal and spatial variability
of dryness/wetness in China during the last 530 years, Theor. Appl.
Climatol., 76, 13–29, 2003a.
Qian, W., Hu, Q., Zhu, Y., and Lee, D. K.: Centennial-scale dry-wet
variations in East Asia, Clim. Dynam., 21, 77–89, 2003b.
Qin, D., Zhang J., Shan C., and Song L.: China national assessment report on
risk management and adaptation of climate extremes and disasters, Science
Press, Beijing, 124 pp., 2015 (in Chinese).
Shen, C., Wang, W.-C., Hao, Z., and Gong, W.: Exceptional drought events
over eastern China during the last five centuries, Climatic Change, 85,
453–471, 2007.
Shen, C., Wang, W.-C., Hao, Z., and Gong, W.: Characteristics of anomalous
precipitation events over eastern China during the past five centuries,
Clim. Dynam., 31, 463–476, 2008.
Sigl, M., Winstrup, M., McConnell, J. R., Welten, K. C., Plunkett, G.,
Ludlow, F., Buentgen, U., Caffee, M., Chellman, N., Dahl-Jensen, D.,
Fischer, H., Kipfstuhl, S., Kostick, C., Maselli, O. J., Mekhaldi, F.,
Mulvaney, R., Muscheler, R., Pasteris, D. R., Pilcher, J. R., Salzer, M.,
Schuepbach, S., Steffensen, J. P., Vinther, B. M., and Woodruff, T. E.:
Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years,
Nature, 523, 543–549, 2015.
Song, F. and Zhou, T.: Interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon
simulated by CMIP3 and CMIP5 AGCMs: Skill dependence on Indian Ocean–western
Pacific anticyclone teleconnection, J. Clim., 27, 1679–1697, 2014.
Stahle, D. W., D'Arrigo, R. D., Krusic, P. J., Cleaveland, M. K., Cook, E.
R., Allan, R. J., Cole, J. E., Dunbar, R. B., Therrell, M. D., Gay, D. A.,
Moore, M. D., Stokes, M. A., Burns, B. T., Villanueva-Diaz, J., and
Thompson, L. G.: Experimental dendroclimatic reconstruction of the Southern
Oscillation, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 2137–2152, 1998.
Wang, H.: The instability of the East Asian summer monsoon–ENSO relations,
Adv. Atmos. Sci., 19, 1–11, 2002.
Wang, H. and He, S.: The north China/Northeastern Asia severe summer drought
in 2014, J. Clim., 28, 6667–6681, 2015.
Wilson, R., Cook, E., D'Arrigo, R., Riedwyl, N., Evans, M. N., Tudhope, A.,
and Allan, R.: Reconstructing ENSO: the influence of method, proxy data,
climate forcing and teleconnections, J. Quaternary Sci., 25, 62–78, 2010.
Wu, R., Hu, Z., and Kirtman, B. P.: Evolution of ENSO-related rainfall
anomalies in East Asia, J. Clim., 16, 3742–3758, 2003.
Xiao, L., Fang, X., Huang, H., and Wei Z.: Changes in the ways of social
response to floods and droughts in North China Plain during 1780–1819, J.
Catastrophol., 26, 83–87, 2011a (in Chinese).
Xiao, L., Fang, X., and Ye, Y.: Agricultural development in Eastern Inner
Mongolia and its climatic background during 1644–1911, Geogr. Res., 30,
1775–1782, 2011b (in Chinese).
Xie, S.-P., Hu, K., Hafner, J., Tokinaga, H., Du, Y., Huang, G., and Sampe,
T.: Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-western Pacific climate during the
summer following El Niño, J. Clim., 22, 730–747, 2009.
Zeng, Z., Fang, X., Ye, Y., Zhang, X., and Xiao, L.: Comparison of disaster
situation and causes of three extreme droughts in China over the past 300
years, J. Catastrophol., 24, 116–122, 2009 (in Chinese).
Zhai, P., Yu, R., Guo, Y., Li, Q., Ren, X., Wang, Y., Xu, W., Liu, Y., and
Ding, Y.: The strong El Nino of 2015/16 and its dominant impacts on global
and China's climate, J. Meteorol. Res., 30, 283–297, 2016.
Zhang, D.: 1784–1787 drought occurrence over east China in a warm climatic
background, Acta Geogr. Sin., 55, 106–112, 2000 (in Chinese).
Zhang, D.: A Compendium of Chinese Meteorological Records of the Last 3000
Years, Jiangsu Education Press, Nanjing, China, 2004.
Zhang, D.: Severe drought events as revealed in the climate records of China
and their temperature situations over the last 1000 years, Acta Meteorol.
Sin., 19, 485–491, 2005.
Zhang, D: A Study of the Large Scale Flooding over Eastern China in 1755,
Adv. Clim. Chang. Res., 3, 128–137, 2012 (in Chinese).
Zhang, D. and Liang, Y.: A long lasting and extensive drought event over
China during 1876–1878, Adv. Clim. Chang. Res., 6, 106–112, 2010 (in
Chinese).
Zhang, D. and Liang, Y.: Study of the heavy torrential rain over the
Huang-Huai region in eastern China in 1730 – an extreme climatic event in
history, Adv. Clim. Chang. Res., 12, 407–412, 2016 (in Chinese).
Zhang, G.: The research on the famine of Guangxu times (1875–1908), Shandong
University, 46–48, 2010 (in Chinese).
Zhang, R., Min, Q., and Su, J.: Impact of El Nino on atmospheric circulations
over East Asia and rainfall in China: Role of the anomalous western North
Pacific anticyclone, Sci. China Earth Sci., 60, 1124–1132, 2017.
Zheng, J., Hao, Z., and Ge, Q.: Variation of precipitation for the last 300
years over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, Sc. China Ser.
D, 48, 2182–2193, 2005.
Zheng, J., Wang, W.-C., Ge, Q., Man, Z., and Zhang, P.: Precipitation
variability and extreme events in eastern China during the past 1500 years,
Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 17, 579–592, 2006.
Zheng, J., Mou, C., and Liu, H.: A compendium of climatic impact records
derived from veritable records of the Qing Dynasty, China Meteorological
Press, Beijing, China, 474–493, 2016 (in Chinese).
Short summary
We investigated the decadal variations of extreme droughts and floods in North China using a 17-site seasonal precipitation reconstruction from a unique historical archive. Then, the link of extreme droughts and floods with ENSO episodes and large volcanic eruptions was discussed. This study helps us understand whether the recent extreme events observed by instruments exceed the natural variability at a regional scale, which may be useful for adaptation to extremes and disasters in the future.
We investigated the decadal variations of extreme droughts and floods in North China using a...
