Articles | Volume 13, issue 10
13 Oct 2017
Research article | 13 Oct 2017
Pseudo-proxy evaluation of climate field reconstruction methods of North Atlantic climate based on an annually resolved marine proxy network
Maria Pyrina et al.
Maria Pyrina, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not accepted
Marlene Klockmann, Udo von Toussaint, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.,
Preprint under review for GMDShort summary
Reconstructions of climate variability before the observational period rely on climate proxies and sophisticated statistical models to link the proxy information and climate variability. Existing models tend to underestimate the true magnitude of variability, especially if the proxies contain non-climatic noise. We present and test a promising new framework for climate-index reconstructions based on Gaussian Processes which reconstructs robust variability estimates from noisy and sparse data.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593,Short summary
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Zeguo Zhang, Sebastian Wagner, Marlene Klockmann, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past Discuss.,
Preprint under review for CPShort summary
We employed a machine learning method, Bidirectional Long-Short-Term Memory Neural Network, Bi-LSTM for the first time for past temperature field reconstructions, the nonlinear Bi-LSTM method tested in our experiments shows relatively worse reconstruction skills compared to PCR and CCA, yet it brings some encouraging results on capturing extreme cooling climate signals. This indicates that this nonlinear method could be a potential methodology for past climate extremes analysis.
Marcus Reckermann, Anders Omstedt, Tarmo Soomere, Juris Aigars, Naveed Akhtar, Magdalena Bełdowska, Jacek Bełdowski, Tom Cronin, Michał Czub, Margit Eero, Kari Petri Hyytiäinen, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Anders Kiessling, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kuliński, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Michelle McCrackin, H. E. Markus Meier, Sonja Oberbeckmann, Kevin Parnell, Cristian Pons-Seres de Brauwer, Anneli Poska, Jarkko Saarinen, Beata Szymczycha, Emma Undeman, Anders Wörman, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1–80,Short summary
As part of the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), we present an inventory and discussion of different human-induced factors and processes affecting the environment of the Baltic Sea region and their interrelations. Some are naturally occurring and modified by human activities, others are completely human-induced, and they are all interrelated to different degrees. The findings from this study can largely be transferred to other comparable marginal and coastal seas in the world.
Ralf Weisse, Inga Dailidienė, Birgit Hünicke, Kimmo Kahma, Kristine Madsen, Anders Omstedt, Kevin Parnell, Tilo Schöne, Tarmo Soomere, Wenyan Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 871–898,Short summary
The study is part of the thematic Baltic Earth Assessment Reports – a series of review papers summarizing the knowledge around major Baltic Earth science topics. It concentrates on sea level dynamics and coastal erosion (its variability and change). Many of the driving processes are relevant in the Baltic Sea. Contributions vary over short distances and across timescales. Progress and research gaps are described in both understanding details in the region and in extending general concepts.
Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 17, 721–751,Short summary
The similarity between indirect observations of past climates and information from climate simulations can increase our understanding of past climates. The further we look back, the more uncertain our indirect observations become. Here, we discuss the technical background for such a similarity-based approach to reconstruct past climates for up to the last 15 000 years. We highlight the potential and the problems.
Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 16, 341–369,Short summary
One can use the similarity between sparse indirect observations of past climates and full fields of simulated climates to learn more about past climates. Here, we detail how one can compute uncertainty estimates for such reconstructions of past climates. This highlights the ambiguity of the reconstruction. We further show that such a reconstruction for European summer temperature agrees well with a more common approach.
Sergio Cohuo, Laura Macario-González, Sebastian Wagner, Katrin Naumann, Paula Echeverría-Galindo, Liseth Pérez, Jason Curtis, Mark Brenner, and Antje Schwalb
Biogeosciences, 17, 145–161,Short summary
We evaluated how freshwater ostracode species responded to long-term and abrupt climate fluctuations during the last 155 kyr in the northern Neotropical region. We used fossil records and species distribution modelling. Fossil evidence suggests negligible effects of long-term climate variations on aquatic niche stability. Models suggest that abrupt climate fluctuation forced species to migrate south to Central America. Micro-refugia and meta-populations can explain survival of endemic species.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Kay-Christian Emeis, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Arne Biastoch, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 847–858,Short summary
Our study reveals that the latitudinal position and intensity of Southern Hemisphere trades and westerlies are correlated. In the last decades the westerlies have shifted poleward and intensified. Furthermore, the latitudinal shifts and intensity of the trades and westerlies impact the sea surface temperatures around southern Africa and in the South Benguela upwelling region. The future development of wind stress depends on the strength of greenhouse gas forcing.
Maria Pyrina, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not accepted
Oliver Bothe, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1129–1152,Short summary
Reconstructions try to extract a climate signal from paleo-observations. It is essential to understand their uncertainties. Similarly, comparing climate simulations and paleo-observations requires approaches to address their uncertainties. We describe a simple but flexible noise model for climate proxies for temperature on millennial timescales, which can assist these goals.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, Eduardo Zorita, and Fernando Jaume-Santero
Clim. Past, 15, 1099–1111,Short summary
A database of North American long-term ground surface temperatures, from approximately 1300 CE to 1700 CE, was assembled from geothermal data. These temperatures are useful for studying the future stability of permafrost, as well as for evaluating simulations of preindustrial climate that may help to improve estimates of climate models’ equilibrium climate sensitivity. The database will be made available to the climate science community.
Oliver Bothe, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 15, 307–334,Short summary
Our understanding of future climate changes increases if different sources of information agree on past climate variations. Changing climates particularly impact local scales for which future changes in precipitation are highly uncertain. Here, we use information from observations, model simulations, and climate reconstructions for regional precipitation over the British Isles. We find these do not agree well on precipitation variations over the past few centuries.
Xing Yi, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not acceptedShort summary
In this study, we analyse the outputs of Earth System Models to investigate the Arabian Sea upwelling for the last 1000 years and in the 21st century. Due to the orbital forcing of the models, the upwelling in the past is found to reveal a negative long-term trend, which matches the observed sediment records. In the future under the RCP8.5 scenario, the warming of the sea water tends to stabilize the surface layer and thus interrupts the upwelling.
Sitar Karabil, Eduardo Zorita, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 69–90,Short summary
We analysed the contribution of atmospheric factors to interannual off-shore sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea region. We identified a different atmospheric circulation pattern that is more closely linked to sea-level variability than the NAO. The inverse barometer effect contributes to that link in the winter and summer seasons. Freshwater flux is connected to the link in summer and net heat flux in winter.The new atmospheric-pattern-related wind forcing plays an important role in summer.
Sitar Karabil, Eduardo Zorita, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1031–1046,Short summary
We statistically analysed the mechanisms of the variability in decadal sea-level trends for the whole Baltic Sea basin over the last century. We used two different sea-level data sets and several climatic data sets. The results of this study showed that precipitation has a lagged effect on decadal sea-level trend variations from which the signature of atmospheric effect is removed. This detected underlying factor is not connected to oceanic forcing driven from the North Atlantic region.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033,Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Svenja E. Bierstedt, Birgit Hünicke, Eduardo Zorita, and Juliane Ludwig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 639–652,Short summary
We statistically analyse the relationship between the structure of migrating dunes in the southern Baltic and the driving wind conditions over the past 26 years, with the long-term aim of using migrating dunes as a proxy for past wind conditions at an interannual resolution.
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Eduardo Zorita, Christoph C. Raible, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 13, 629–648,Short summary
This contribution aims at assessing to what extent the analogue method, a classic technique used in other branches of meteorology and climatology, can be used to perform gridded reconstructions of annual temperature based on the limited information from available but un-calibrated proxies spread across different locations of the world. We conclude that it is indeed possible, albeit with certain limitations that render the method comparable to more classic techniques.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Jian Ni, Xianyong Cao, Yongbo Wang, Nils Fischer, Madlene Pfeiffer, Liya Jin, Vyacheslav Khon, Sebastian Wagner, Kerstin Haberkorn, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 13, 107–134,Short summary
The vegetation distribution in eastern Asia is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate–vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient climate simulations.
Xing Yi and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not acceptedShort summary
In this paper we study the upwelling in the Arabian Sea simulated in two Earth System Models for the last millennium and for the 21st century. Revealing a negative long-term trend due to the model orbital forcing, the upwelling over the last millennium is strongly correlated with the SST, the Indian summer Monsoon and the G.bulloides abundance observed in the sediment records. In the future scenarios the warming of the sea water tends to stabilize the surface layer and hinder the upwelling.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Birgit Hünicke, Xing Yi, and Kay-Christian Emeis
Ocean Sci., 12, 807–823,Short summary
The impact of external climate forcing on the four eastern boundary upwelling systems is investigated for the recent past and future. Under increased radiative forcing, upwelling-favourable winds should strengthen due to unequal heating of land and oceans. However, coastal upwelling simulated in ensembles of climate simulations do not show any imprint of external forcing neither for the past millennium nor for the future, with the exception of the strongest future scenario.
Svenja E. Bierstedt, Birgit Hünicke, Eduardo Zorita, Sebastian Wagner, and Juan José Gómez-Navarro
Clim. Past, 12, 317–338,
X. Yi, B. Hünicke, N. Tim, and E. Zorita
Ocean Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not acceptedShort summary
In this paper, we use the vertical water mass transport data provided by a high-resolution global ocean simulation to study the western Arabian Sea coastal upwelling system. Our results show that: 1). no significant long-term trend is detected in the upwelling time series. 2). the impact of Indian summer monsoon on the simulated upwelling is weak. 3). the upwelling is strongly affected by the sea level pressure gradient and the air temperature gradient.
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, O. Bothe, S. Wagner, E. Zorita, J. P. Werner, J. Luterbacher, C. C. Raible, and J. P Montávez
Clim. Past, 11, 1077–1095,
N. Tim, E. Zorita, and B. Hünicke
Ocean Sci., 11, 483–502,Short summary
The atmospheric drivers of the Benguela upwelling systems and its variability are statistically analysed with an ocean-only simulation over the last decades. Atmospheric upwelling-favourable conditions are southerly wind/wind stress, a strong subtropical anticyclone, and an ocean-land sea level pressure gradient as well as a negative ENSO and a positive AAO phase. No long-term trends of upwelling and of ocean-minus-land air pressure gradients, as supposed by Bakun, can be seen in our analysis.
J. A. Santos, M. F. Carneiro, A. Correia, M. J. Alcoforado, E. Zorita, and J. J. Gómez-Navarro
Clim. Past, 11, 825–834,
A. Dallmeyer, M. Claussen, N. Fischer, K. Haberkorn, S. Wagner, M. Pfeiffer, L. Jin, V. Khon, Y. Wang, and U. Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 11, 305–326,
G. Strandberg, E. Kjellström, A. Poska, S. Wagner, M.-J. Gaillard, A.-K. Trondman, A. Mauri, B. A. S. Davis, J. O. Kaplan, H. J. B. Birks, A. E. Bjune, R. Fyfe, T. Giesecke, L. Kalnina, M. Kangur, W. O. van der Knaap, U. Kokfelt, P. Kuneš, M. Lata\l owa, L. Marquer, F. Mazier, A. B. Nielsen, B. Smith, H. Seppä, and S. Sugita
Clim. Past, 10, 661–680,
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Wagner, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1667–1682,
G. Esnaola, J. Sáenz, E. Zorita, A. Fontán, V. Valencia, and P. Lazure
Ocean Sci., 9, 655–679,
O. Bothe, J. H. Jungclaus, D. Zanchettin, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1089–1110,
Related subject area
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