Climate of the Past
Climate of the Past
CP
Articles | Volume 12, issue 3
Articles | Volume 12, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-749-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-749-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 12, issue 3
Research article
 | 
23 Mar 2016
Research article |  | 23 Mar 2016

Arctic sea ice simulation in the PlioMIP ensemble

Fergus W. Howell, Alan M. Haywood, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Youichi Kamae, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nan A. Rosenbloom, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang

Abstract. Eight general circulation models have simulated the mid-Pliocene warm period (mid-Pliocene, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) as part of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here, we analyse and compare their simulation of Arctic sea ice for both the pre-industrial period and the mid-Pliocene. Mid-Pliocene sea ice thickness and extent is reduced, and the model spread of extent is more than twice the pre-industrial spread in some summer months. Half of the PlioMIP models simulate ice-free conditions in the mid-Pliocene. This spread amongst the ensemble is in line with the uncertainties amongst proxy reconstructions for mid-Pliocene sea ice extent. Correlations between mid-Pliocene Arctic temperatures and sea ice extents are almost twice as strong as the equivalent correlations for the pre-industrial simulations. The need for more comprehensive sea ice proxy data is highlighted, in order to better compare model performances.

How to cite. Howell, F. W., Haywood, A. M., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Bragg, F., Chan, W.-L., Chandler, M. A., Contoux, C., Kamae, Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Rosenbloom, N. A., Stepanek, C., and Zhang, Z.: Arctic sea ice simulation in the PlioMIP ensemble, Clim. Past, 12, 749–767, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-749-2016, 2016.
Received: 02 Mar 2015 – Discussion started: 07 Apr 2015 – Revised: 09 Mar 2016 – Accepted: 10 Mar 2016 – Published: 23 Mar 2016
Download
Short summary
Simulations of pre-industrial and mid-Pliocene Arctic sea ice by eight GCMs are analysed. Ensemble variability in sea ice extent is greater in the mid-Pliocene summer, when half of the models simulate sea-ice-free conditions. Weaker correlations are seen between sea ice extent and temperatures in the pre-industrial era compared to the mid-Pliocene. The need for more comprehensive sea ice proxy data is highlighted, in order to better compare model performances.
Read more