the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.
On the verification of climate reconstructions
Abstract. The skill of proxy-based reconstructions of Northern hemisphere temperature is reassessed. Using a rigorous verification method, we show that previous estimates of skill exceeding 50% mainly reflect a sampling bias, and that more realistic values vary about 25%. The bias results from the strong trends in the instrumental period, together with the special partitioning into calibration and validation parts. This setting is characterized by very few degrees of freedom and leaves the regression susceptible to nonsense predictors. Basing the new estimates on 100 random resamplings of the instrumental period we avoid the problem of a priori different calibration and validation statistics and obtain robust estimates plus uncertainty. The low verification scores apply to an entire suite of multiproxy regression-based models, including the most recent variants. It is doubtful whether the estimated levels of verifiable predictive power are strong enough to resolve the current debate on the millennial climate.
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This preprint has been withdrawn.
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Supplement
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Interactive discussion
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RC S139: 'Paper Not Suitable for Publication', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Jul 2006
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SC S153: 'A step in the right direction', Eduardo Zorita, 05 Jul 2006
- RC S161: 'Dissapointing Comment', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Jul 2006
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AC S156: 'reply to reviewer', Gerd Bürger, 07 Jul 2006
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RC S163: 'Further Evidence Submission Lacks Merit', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Jul 2006
- AC S171: 'Only this', Gerd Bürger, 08 Jul 2006
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RC S163: 'Further Evidence Submission Lacks Merit', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Jul 2006
- SC S182: 'Comments on the rev#2 comments', Joel Guiot, 10 Jul 2006
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SC S153: 'A step in the right direction', Eduardo Zorita, 05 Jul 2006
-
RC S173: 'Not ready for publication', Anonymous Referee #3, 08 Jul 2006
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AC S187: 'Some clarifications', Gerd Bürger, 13 Jul 2006
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RC S221: 'More clarifications', Anonymous Referee #3, 21 Jul 2006
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AC S288: 'clarifications', Gerd Bürger, 18 Aug 2006
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RC S294: 'Corrections of BC errors', Anonymous Referee #3, 22 Aug 2006
-
AC S298: 'closing points', Gerd Bürger, 23 Aug 2006
- RC S300: 'Final comments', Anonymous Referee #3, 23 Aug 2006
-
AC S298: 'closing points', Gerd Bürger, 23 Aug 2006
-
RC S294: 'Corrections of BC errors', Anonymous Referee #3, 22 Aug 2006
-
AC S288: 'clarifications', Gerd Bürger, 18 Aug 2006
-
RC S221: 'More clarifications', Anonymous Referee #3, 21 Jul 2006
-
AC S187: 'Some clarifications', Gerd Bürger, 13 Jul 2006
- SC S180: 'Comment 3 of rev. 3, not justified', Eduardo Zorita, 09 Jul 2006
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RC S269: 'no idea what a comment subject is ...', Anonymous Referee #1, 05 Aug 2006
- RC S273: 'lack of credibility', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Aug 2006
- AC S334: 'lessons learned', Gerd Bürger, 04 Sep 2006
- SC S386: 'Comment', Dmitry Sonechkin, 20 Sep 2006
- EC S389: 'Editorial decision', Victor Brovkin, 20 Sep 2006
Interactive discussion
-
RC S139: 'Paper Not Suitable for Publication', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Jul 2006
-
SC S153: 'A step in the right direction', Eduardo Zorita, 05 Jul 2006
- RC S161: 'Dissapointing Comment', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Jul 2006
-
AC S156: 'reply to reviewer', Gerd Bürger, 07 Jul 2006
-
RC S163: 'Further Evidence Submission Lacks Merit', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Jul 2006
- AC S171: 'Only this', Gerd Bürger, 08 Jul 2006
-
RC S163: 'Further Evidence Submission Lacks Merit', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Jul 2006
- SC S182: 'Comments on the rev#2 comments', Joel Guiot, 10 Jul 2006
-
SC S153: 'A step in the right direction', Eduardo Zorita, 05 Jul 2006
-
RC S173: 'Not ready for publication', Anonymous Referee #3, 08 Jul 2006
-
AC S187: 'Some clarifications', Gerd Bürger, 13 Jul 2006
-
RC S221: 'More clarifications', Anonymous Referee #3, 21 Jul 2006
-
AC S288: 'clarifications', Gerd Bürger, 18 Aug 2006
-
RC S294: 'Corrections of BC errors', Anonymous Referee #3, 22 Aug 2006
-
AC S298: 'closing points', Gerd Bürger, 23 Aug 2006
- RC S300: 'Final comments', Anonymous Referee #3, 23 Aug 2006
-
AC S298: 'closing points', Gerd Bürger, 23 Aug 2006
-
RC S294: 'Corrections of BC errors', Anonymous Referee #3, 22 Aug 2006
-
AC S288: 'clarifications', Gerd Bürger, 18 Aug 2006
-
RC S221: 'More clarifications', Anonymous Referee #3, 21 Jul 2006
-
AC S187: 'Some clarifications', Gerd Bürger, 13 Jul 2006
- SC S180: 'Comment 3 of rev. 3, not justified', Eduardo Zorita, 09 Jul 2006
-
RC S269: 'no idea what a comment subject is ...', Anonymous Referee #1, 05 Aug 2006
- RC S273: 'lack of credibility', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Aug 2006
- AC S334: 'lessons learned', Gerd Bürger, 04 Sep 2006
- SC S386: 'Comment', Dmitry Sonechkin, 20 Sep 2006
- EC S389: 'Editorial decision', Victor Brovkin, 20 Sep 2006
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Cited
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
G. Bürger
U. Cubasch
This preprint has been withdrawn.
- Preprint
(279 KB) - Metadata XML
-
Supplement
(9 KB) - BibTeX
- EndNote