Journal cover Journal topic
Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

IF value: 3.536
IF3.536
IF 5-year value: 3.967
IF 5-year
3.967
CiteScore value: 6.6
CiteScore
6.6
SNIP value: 1.262
SNIP1.262
IPP value: 3.90
IPP3.90
SJR value: 2.185
SJR2.185
Scimago H <br class='widget-line-break'>index value: 71
Scimago H
index
71
h5-index value: 40
h5-index40
Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-2-357-2006
© Author(s) 2006. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-2-357-2006
© Author(s) 2006. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.

  03 Jul 2006

03 Jul 2006

Review status
This preprint has been withdrawn by the authors.

On the verification of climate reconstructions

G. Bürger and U. Cubasch G. Bürger and U. Cubasch
  • Institut für Meteorologie, FU, Berlin, Germany

Abstract. The skill of proxy-based reconstructions of Northern hemisphere temperature is reassessed. Using a rigorous verification method, we show that previous estimates of skill exceeding 50% mainly reflect a sampling bias, and that more realistic values vary about 25%. The bias results from the strong trends in the instrumental period, together with the special partitioning into calibration and validation parts. This setting is characterized by very few degrees of freedom and leaves the regression susceptible to nonsense predictors. Basing the new estimates on 100 random resamplings of the instrumental period we avoid the problem of a priori different calibration and validation statistics and obtain robust estimates plus uncertainty. The low verification scores apply to an entire suite of multiproxy regression-based models, including the most recent variants. It is doubtful whether the estimated levels of verifiable predictive power are strong enough to resolve the current debate on the millennial climate.

This preprint has been withdrawn.

G. Bürger and U. Cubasch

Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

G. Bürger and U. Cubasch

G. Bürger and U. Cubasch

Viewed

Total article views: 1,297 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
798 432 67 1,297 54 84
  • HTML: 798
  • PDF: 432
  • XML: 67
  • Total: 1,297
  • BibTeX: 54
  • EndNote: 84
Views and downloads (calculated since 01 Feb 2013)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 01 Feb 2013)

Cited

Saved

No saved metrics found.

Discussed

No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 29 Nov 2020
Publications Copernicus
Download
Withdrawal notice

This preprint has been withdrawn.

Citation