the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Testing Hypotheses About Glacial Dynamics and the Stage 11 Paradox Using a Statistical Model of Paleo-Climate
Robert K. Kaufmann
Felix Pretis
Abstract. To test hypotheses about glacial dynamics, the Mid-Brunhes event, and the stage 11 paradox, we evaluate the ability of a statistical model to simulate climate during the previous ~800 000 years. Throughout this period, the model simulates the timing and magnitude of glacial cycles, including the saw-tooth pattern in which ice accumulates gradually and ablates rapidly, without nonlinearities or threshold effects. This suggests that nonlinearities and/or threshold effects do not play a critical role in glacial cycles. Furthermore, model accuracy throughout the previous ~800 000 years suggest that changes in glacial cycles associated with the Mid-Brunhes event, which occurs near the division between the out-of-sample period and the in-sample period, are not caused by changes in the dynamics of the climate system. Conversely, poor model performance during MIS stage 11 and Termination V is consistent with arguments that the stage 11 paradox
represents a mismatch between orbital geometry and climate. Statistical orderings of simulation errors indicate that periods of reduced accuracy start with significant reductions in the model's ability to simulate carbon dioxide, non-sea-salt sodium, and non-sea-salt calcium. Their importance suggests that the stage 11 paradox is generated by changes in atmospheric and/or oceanic circulation that affect ocean ventilation of carbon dioxide.
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Robert K. Kaufmann and Felix Pretis


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RC1: 'Suggested Revisions', Anonymous Referee #1, 08 Jun 2020
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AC1: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #1', Robert Kaufmann, 09 Jul 2020
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AC1: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #1', Robert Kaufmann, 09 Jul 2020
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RC2: 'review', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Jun 2020
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AC4: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #2', Robert Kaufmann, 14 Jul 2020
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AC4: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #2', Robert Kaufmann, 14 Jul 2020
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RC3: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #3, 16 Jul 2020
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AC5: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #3', Robert Kaufmann, 23 Jul 2020
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AC5: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #3', Robert Kaufmann, 23 Jul 2020


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RC1: 'Suggested Revisions', Anonymous Referee #1, 08 Jun 2020
-
AC1: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #1', Robert Kaufmann, 09 Jul 2020
-
AC1: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #1', Robert Kaufmann, 09 Jul 2020
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RC2: 'review', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Jun 2020
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AC4: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #2', Robert Kaufmann, 14 Jul 2020
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AC4: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #2', Robert Kaufmann, 14 Jul 2020
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RC3: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #3, 16 Jul 2020
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AC5: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #3', Robert Kaufmann, 23 Jul 2020
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AC5: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #3', Robert Kaufmann, 23 Jul 2020
Robert K. Kaufmann and Felix Pretis
Robert K. Kaufmann and Felix Pretis
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