Climate of the Past
Climate of the Past
CP
Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-377-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-377-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
Research article
 | 
19 Feb 2026
Research article |  | 19 Feb 2026

How temperature seasonality drives interglacial permafrost dynamics: implications for paleo reconstructions and future thaw trajectories

Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Luca Alexander Müller-Ißberner, Elisabeth Dietze, and Martin Werner

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Short summary
Using model simulations, we show that the larger temperature seasonality of the mid Holocene and the last interglacial climates led to marked surficial permafrost thaw during warm summers, while cold winters allowed for permafrost persistence at depth. We argue that past interglacial climates have limited suitability as analogues for future permafrost dynamics, for which we anticipate a trajectory of unprecedented thaw magnitude since at least MIS (Marine Isotope Stage) 11c.
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