Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-377-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-377-2026
Research article
 | 
19 Feb 2026
Research article |  | 19 Feb 2026

How temperature seasonality drives interglacial permafrost dynamics: implications for paleo reconstructions and future thaw trajectories

Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Luca Alexander Müller-Ißberner, Elisabeth Dietze, and Martin Werner

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-4011', Anonymous Referee #1, 11 Mar 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jan Nitzbon, 23 May 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-4011', Anonymous Referee #2, 25 Apr 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Jan Nitzbon, 23 May 2025

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (09 Jun 2025) by Alberto Reyes
AR by Jan Nitzbon on behalf of the Authors (08 Jul 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (10 Dec 2025) by Irina Rogozhina
AR by Jan Nitzbon on behalf of the Authors (16 Dec 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (16 Dec 2025) by Irina Rogozhina
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (27 Jan 2026)
ED: Publish as is (28 Jan 2026) by Irina Rogozhina
AR by Jan Nitzbon on behalf of the Authors (29 Jan 2026)

Post-review adjustments

AA – Author's adjustment | EA – Editor approval
AA by Jan Nitzbon on behalf of the Authors (04 Feb 2026)   Author's adjustment   Manuscript
EA: Adjustments approved (13 Feb 2026) by Irina Rogozhina
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Short summary
Using model simulations, we show that the larger temperature seasonality of the mid Holocene and the last interglacial climates led to marked surficial permafrost thaw during warm summers, while cold winters allowed for permafrost persistence at depth. We argue that past interglacial climates have limited suitability as analogues for future permafrost dynamics, for which we anticipate a trajectory of unprecedented thaw magnitude since at least MIS (Marine Isotope Stage) 11c.
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