Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-1159-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Quantitative climate reconstruction from sedimentary ancient DNA: framework, validation and application
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- Final revised paper (published on 10 Jun 2026)
- Preprint (discussion started on 24 Jun 2025)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2678', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 Jul 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Thomas Böhmer, 17 Sep 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2678', Charline Giguet-Covex, 18 Aug 2025
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RC3: 'Reply on RC2', Charline Giguet-Covex, 18 Aug 2025
- AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Thomas Böhmer, 17 Sep 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Thomas Böhmer, 17 Sep 2025
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RC3: 'Reply on RC2', Charline Giguet-Covex, 18 Aug 2025
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AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (30 Sep 2025) by Odile Peyron
AR by Thomas Böhmer on behalf of the Authors (10 Oct 2025)
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ED: Publish as is (14 Oct 2025) by Odile Peyron
AR by Thomas Böhmer on behalf of the Authors (22 Dec 2025)
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Pollen preserved is lake sediments have been used to generate quantitative reconstructions of past climate for the last 50 years, but two inherent problems severely limit the precision possible. First, species with ecologically distinct niches can be difficult or impossible to separate palynologically, secondly, some wind dispersed species produce vast amounts of well dispersed pollen that can blow into lakes far beyond the ecological limits of the species. This manuscript tests the potential of ancient DNA, which has high taxonomic resolution and limited dispersion, as an alternative to pollen for reconstructions. The manuscript tests different reconstruction methods, including traditional transfer functions that use a calibration set and an alternative method that uses presence-only data.
The methods used are:
The first two methods are just applied to the aDNA data, the latter two are applied to both aDNA and pollen data. This may be the first time a head-to-head comparison of CREST and transfer functions has been done. It might be worth extending the analysis to run CREST with the pollen data as well for a more complete comparison.
The justification for using CREST with MaxEnt preprocessing is "that several taxa do not equally cover the temperature range". This is a rather vague justification, and I'm not exactly sure what is meant by it. The GBIF-MaxEnt-CREST pipeline is novel and rather involved. I recommend starting this section with a short paragraph that outlines the process so that the details are easier to follow.
Pre-processing with MaxEnt seems to improve the performance of CREST, but I do not understanding what exactly how MaxEnt helps CREST perform better. I'm dubious of the claim that it "enhance[s] the point density in the occurrence data" as it is not possible for the method to create data. Maybe a plot comparing the niches estimated by both methods would help explain what is happening.
I can easily imagine that the CREST is too constrained in the niche shape they can fit, and it might be profitable to allow more than normal or log-normal PDFs. So rather than pre-processing the data with MaxEnt, the first step of CREST is replaced by MaxEnt (or another flexible model). Of course the penalty for using more flexible models is that they are prone to over-fitting.
There is an issue with the cross-validation of the transfer function models. The ms reports that the uncertainties on the reconstruction are calculated using bootstrapping, but it is unclear what cross-validation scheme is use to estimate the models' performance.
One widely used cross-validation scheme is leave-one-out cross-validation. Somewhat confusingly, this ms, following Chevalier (2022), uses the term leave-one-out to refer to a type of sensitivity analysis in which taxa are left out sequentially. It would be better to call this step a sensitivity analysis.
The ms emphasises the median bias of the reconstructed temperatures as a metric of transfer function performance. I have not seen this metric used before. Mean bias is sometimes reported, but not prominently as it can be zero even if the transfer function has no skill. Median bias will have the same unfortunate property. Maximum bias is more useful.
The pollen-MAT error for the Billyakh core top is very low. Is this lake part of the calibration set? If so, such a low error is not surprising, and it might be worth removing before reconstructing the coretop it to get an unbiased estimate. The same applies to the WAPLS model, but the effect will be much weaker and could probably be ignored (unless the assemblage is distinctive), but treat the two transfer function methods the same way.
If Billyakh is one of the calibration set sites, it could be marked on the panels on the left of figure 2.
How was it decided to use seven analogues in the MAT models? (seven should be written in words, as should any other small integers).
I don't know if it needs to be stated in the ms, but it may be worth reminding readers that there is a risk of circular reasoning when interpreting assemblage changes due to climate when that assemblage has been used to reconstruct the climate.