Ben-Avraham, Z., Rosenthal, M., Tibor, G., Navon, H., Wust-Bloch, H., Hofstetter, R., and Rybakov, M.: Structure and Tectonic Development of the Kinneret Basin, in: Lake Kinneret: Ecology and Management, edited by: Zohary, T., Sukenik, A., Berman, T., and Nishri, A., Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 19–38, ISBN 978-94-017-8944-8,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8944-8_2, 2014.
a
Berman, T., Zohary, T., Nishri, A., and Sukenik, A.: General Background, in: Lake Kinneret: Ecology and Management, edited by Zohary, T., Sukenik, A., Berman, T., and Nishri, A. Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 1–15, ISBN 978-94-017-8944-8,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8944-8_1, 2014.
a
Blaauw, M. and Christen, J. A.: Flexible paleoclimate age-depth models using an autoregressive gamma process, Bayesian Anal., 6, 457–474,
https://doi.org/10.1214/11-BA618, 2011.
a
Bowyer, K. W., Chawla, N. V., Hall, L. O., and Kegelmeyer, W. P.: SMOTE: Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique, CoRR, abs/1106.1813, arxiv [preprint],
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1106.1813, 2011.
a
Braconnot, P., Harrison, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Abe-Ouchi, A., Jungclaus, J., and Peterschmitt, J.-Y.: The Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project contribution to CMIP5, CLIVAR Exchanges, 56, 15–19, 2011. a
Brodersen, K. H., Ong, C. S., Stephan, K., and Buhmann, J.: The Balanced Accuracy and Its Posterior Distribution, in: 2010 20th International Conference on Pattern Recognition, 23–26 August 2010, Istanbul, Turkey, 3121–3124,
https://doi.org/10.1109/ICPR.2010.764, 2010.
a
Chicco, D., Warrens, M., and Jurman, G.: The Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) is more informative than Cohen's kappa and Brier score in binary classification assessment, IEEE Access, 9, 78368–78381,
https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3084050, 2021.
a
Colleoni, F., Masina, S., Negri, A., and Marzocchi, A.: Plio–Pleistocene high–low latitude climate interplay: A Mediterranean point of view, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 319-320, 35–44,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.12.020, 2012.
a
Dan, J., Yaalon, D., Koyumdjisky, H., and Raz, Z.: The Soil Association Map of Israel (
1:1 000 000), Israel J. Earth Sci., 2, 29–49, 1972. a
Danin, A.: Flora and vegetation of Israel and adjacent areas, in: The zoogeography of Israel, chap. 7, edited by: Yom Tov, Y. and Tchernov, E., Junk Publishers, Dordrecht, 129–159, ISBN 9061936500, 1988. a
Danin, A.: Flora and vegetation of Israel and adjacent areas, Bocconea, 3, 18–42, 1992. a
Debret, M., Bout-Roumazeilles, V., Grousset, F., Desmet, M., McManus, J. F., Massei, N., Sebag, D., Petit, J.-R., Copard, Y., and Trentesaux, A.: The origin of the 1500-year climate cycles in Holocene North-Atlantic records, Clim. Past, 3, 569–575,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-569-2007, 2007.
a
Gebhardt, C., Kühl, N., Hense, A., and Litt, T.: Reconstruction of Quaternary temperature fields by dynamically consistent smoothing, Clim. Dynam., 30, 421–437,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0299-9, 2008.
a
Gelman, A., Carlin, J., Stern, H., Dunson, D., Vehtari, A., and Rubin, D.: Bayesian Data Analysis, in: 3rd Edn., Chapman & Hall/CRC Texts in Statistical Science, Taylor & Francis, ISBN 9781439840955, 2013.
a,
b
Greenwell, B., Boehmke, B., Cunningham, J., and Developers, G.: gbm: Generalized Boosted Regression Models, R package version 2.1.5, CRAN,
https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=gbm (last access: 23 January 2025), 2019. a
Harris, I., Osborn, T., Jones, P., and Lister, D.: Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset, Sci. Data, 7, 109,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0453-3, 2020.
a
Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., and Friedman, J.: The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, in: Springer series in statistics, Springer, ISBN 9780387848846, 2009. a
Hazan, N., Stein, M., Agnon, A., Marco, S., Nadel, D., Negendank, J. F., Schwab, M. J., and Neev, D.: The late quaternary limnological history of Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee), Israel, Quatern. Res., 63, 60–77, 2005.
a,
b
Hoens, T. R. and Chawla, N. V.: Imbalanced Datasets: From Sampling to Classifiers, in: chap. 3, John Wiley and Sons, Ltd, 43–59, ISBN 9781118646106,
https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118646106.ch3, 2013.
a,
b
James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T., and Tibshirani, R.: An Introduction to Statistical Learning: with Applications in R, Springer,
https://www.statlearning.com/ (last access: 12 October 2019), 2013.
a,
b
Jergensen, G. E., McGovern, A., Lagerquist, R., and Smith, T.: Classifying Convective Storms Using Machine Learning, Weather Forecast., 35, 537–559,
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0170.1, 2020.
a
Kühl, N. and Litt, T.: Quantitative time series reconstruction of Eemian temperature at three European sites using pollen data, Veget. Hist. Archaeobot., 12, 205–214,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00334-003-0019-2, 2003.
a
Kühl, N., Gebhardt, C., Litt, T., and Hense, A.: Probability Density Functions as Botanical-Climatological Transfer Functions for Climate Reconstruction, Quatern. Res., 58, 381–392,
https://doi.org/10.1006/qres.2002.2380, 2002.
a
Kuhn, M., with contributions from Jed, W., Weston, S., Williams, A., Keefer, C., Engelhardt, A., Cooper, T., Mayer, Z., Kenkel, B., the R Core Team, Benesty, M., Lescarbeau, R., Ziem, A., Scrucca, L., Tang, Y., Candan, C., and Hunt., T.: caret: Classification and Regression Training, R package version 6.0-84, CRAN,
https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=caret (last access: 22 January 2025), 2019. a
Langgut, D., Finkelstein, I., and Litt, T.: Climate and the Late Bronze Collapse: New Evidence from the Southern Levant, Tel Aviv, 40, 149–175,
https://doi.org/10.1179/033443513X13753505864205, 2013.
a,
b,
c,
d,
e
Litt, T., Ohlwein, C., Neumann, F. H., Hense, A., and Stein, M.: Holocene climate variability in the Levant from the Dead Sea pollen record, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 49, 95–105,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.06.012, 2012.
a,
b,
c,
d,
e,
f,
g,
h,
i,
j,
k,
l
Miebach, A., Niestrath, P., Roeser, P., and Litt, T.: Impacts of climate and humans on the vegetation in northwestern Turkey: Palynological insights from Lake Iznik since the Last Glacial, Clim. Past, 12, 575–593,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-575-2016, 2016.
a
Miebach, A., Stolzenberger, S., Wacker, L., Hense, A., and Litt, T.: A new Dead Sea pollen record reveals the last glacial paleoenvironment of the southern Levant, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 214, 98–116,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.04.033, 2019.
a,
b
Miebach, A., Power, M., Resag, T., Netzel, T., Colombaroli, D., and Litt, T.: Changing fire regimes during the first olive cultivation in the Mediterranean Basin: New high-resolution evidence from the Sea of Galilee, Israel, Global Planet. Change, 210, 103774,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103774, 2022.
a,
b,
c,
d,
e
Netzel, T.: Quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions in the European region based on multiple proxies, PhD thesis, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn,
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11811/10758 (last access: 22 January 2025), 2023a.
a,
b
Neumann, F., Schölzel, C., Litt, T., Hense, A., and Stein, M.: Holocene vegetation and climate history of the northern Golan heights (Near East), Veget. Hist. Archaeobot., 16, 329–346,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00334-006-0046-x, 2007.
a,
b,
c,
d
Orland, I., Bar-Matthews, M., Kita, N., Ayalon, A., Matthews, A., and Valley, J.: Climate deterioration in the Eastern Mediterranean as revealed by ion microprobe analysis of a speleothem that grew from 2.2 to 0.9 ka in Soreq Cave, Israel, Quatern. Res., 71, 27–35,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2008.08.005, 2009.
a,
b,
c
Panagiotopoulos, K., Aufgebauer, A., Schäbitz, F., and Wagner, B.: Vegetation and climate history of the Lake Prespa region since the Lateglacial, Quatern. Intern., 293, 157–169,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2012.05.048, 2013.
a
Prentice, I. C., Cramer, W., Harrison, S. P., Leemans, R., Monserud, R. A., and Solomon, A. M.: Special Paper: A Global Biome Model Based on Plant Physiology and Dominance, Soil Properties and Climate, J. Biogeogr., 19, 117–134, 1992. a
Ramsey, C. B.: Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates, Radiocarbon, 51, 337–360, 2009. a
Rausch, J. and Kelley, K.: A comparison of linear and mixture models for discriminant analysis under nonnormality, Behav. Res. Meth., 41, 85–98,
https://doi.org/10.3758/BRM.41.1.85, 2009.
a
R Core Team: R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria,
https://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 22 January 2025), 2018. a
Reille, M.: Pollen et spores d'Europe et d'Afrique du Nord: supplément 2, Laboratoire de Botanique historique et Palynologie, ISBN 9782950717511, 1995. a
Reille, M.: Pollen et spores d'Europe et d'Afrique du Nord: supplément 2, Laboratoire de Botanique historique et Palynologie, ISBN 9782950717528, 1998. a
Reille, M.: Pollen et spores d'Europe et d'Afrique du Nord, in: 2nd Edn., Laboratoire de Botanique historique et Palynologie, ISBN 9782950717535, 1999. a
Schiebel, V. and Litt, T.: Holocene vegetation history of the southern Levant based on a pollen record from Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee), Israel, Veget. Hist. Archaeobot., 27, 577–590,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00334-017-0658-3, 2018.
a,
b,
c,
d,
e,
f,
g,
h,
i,
j,
k,
l
Schölzel, C.: Palaeoenvironmental Transfer Functions in a Bayesian Framework with Application to Holocene Climate Variability in the Near East, Bonner Meteorologische Abhandlungen, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, p. 104,
https://www.ifgeo.uni-bonn.de/de/medien-inhalte/bonner-meteorologische-abhandlungen_20240222.pdf (last access: 22 January 2025), 2006.
a,
b,
c,
d
Seppä, H., Hammarlund, D., and Antonsson, K.: Low-frequency and high-frequency changes in temperature and effective humidity during the Holocene in south-central Sweden: implications for atmospheric and oceanic forcings of climate, Clim. Dynam., 25, 285–297,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0024-5, 2005.
a
Simonis, D., Hense, A., and Litt, T.: Reconstruction of late Glacial and Early Holocene near surface temperature anomalies in Europe and their statistical interpretation, Quatern. Int., 274, 233–250,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2012.02.050, 2012.
a,
b
Sneh, A., Bartov, Y., Weissbrod, T., and Rosensaft, M.: Geological Map of Israel,
, Geological Survey,
https://www.gov.il/en/pages/israel-map-1-200k (last access: 22 January 2025), 1998. a
Stein, M., Torfstein, A., Gavrieli, I., and Yechieli, Y.: Abrupt aridities and salt deposition in the post-glacial Dead Sea and their North Atlantic connection, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 567–575, 2010.
a,
b
Stolzenberger, S.: On the probabilistic evaluation of decadal and paleoclimate model predictions, PhD thesis, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn,
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11811/7299 (last access: 22 January 2025), 2017. a
Thoma, B.: Palaeoclimate Reconstruction in the Levant and on the Balkans, PhD thesis, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn,
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11811/7204 (last access: 22 January 2025), 2017.
a,
b,
c
Torfstein, A., Goldstein, S. L., Kushnir, Y., Enzel, Y., Haug, G., and Stein, M.: Dead Sea drawdown and monsoonal impacts in the Levant during the last interglacial, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 412, 235–244,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.12.013, 2015.
a
Venables, W. N. and Ripley, B. D.: Modern Applied Statistics with S, in: 4th Edn., Springer, New York, ISBN 0-387-95457-0, 2002.
a,
b,
c
Vossel, H., Roeser, P., Litt, T., and Reed, J. M.: Lake Kinneret (Israel): New insights into Holocene regional palaeoclimate variability based on high-resolution multi-proxy analysis, Holocene, 28, 1395–1410, 2018.
a,
b
Weitzel, N., Hense, A., and Ohlwein, C.: Combining a pollen and macrofossil synthesis with climate simulations for spatial reconstructions of European climate using Bayesian filtering, Clim. Past, 15, 1275–1301,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1275-2019, 2019.
a,
b,
c
Ziv, B., Shilo, E., Lechinsky, Y., and Rimmer, A.: Meteorology, in: Lake Kinneret: Ecology and Management, edited by: Zohary, T., Sukenik, A., Berman, T., and Nishri, A., Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 81–96, ISBN 978-94-017-8944-8,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8944-8_6, 2014.
a
Zohary, M.: Plant Life of Palestine: Israel and Jordan, Chronica botanica, Ronald Press Company, ISBN 9780471068280, 1962.
a,
b,
c,
d
Zohary, M.: Vegetation of Israel and Adjacent Areas, Reichert, ISBN 9783882261257, 1982.
a,
b
