Articles | Volume 21, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1093-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1093-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Jun 2025
Research article |
| 27 Jun 2025
| 27 Jun 2025
Simulated ocean oxygenation during the interglacials MIS 5e and MIS 9e
Bartholomé Duboc
Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
CentraleSupelec, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Katrin J. Meissner
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Laurie Menviel
Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
The Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Nicholas K. H. Yeung
Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Babette Hoogakker
The Lyell Centre, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK
Tilo Ziehn
Environment, CSIRO, Aspendale, VIC, Australia
Matthew Chamberlain
Environment, CSIRO, Hobart, TAS, Australia
Related authors
No articles found.
Peter Köhler, Laurie Menviel, Frerk Pöppelmeier, Tim J. Heaton, Edouard Bard, and Luke C. Skinner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5136, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5136, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
Radiocarbon (14C) is decaying over time, which is used to determine the age of carbon-containing objects. Calibration curves are necessary to come from measured 14C values to calendar ages. We use different models in order to improve future calibration curves, especially around times of abrupt changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. We find that uncertainties during those times are underrepresented in present calibrations, especially in the Atlantic.
Pearse J. Buchanan, P. Jyoteeshkumar Reddy, Richard J. Matear, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Tyler Rohr, Dougal Squire, and Elizabeth H. Shadwick
Biogeosciences, 22, 5349–5385, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5349-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5349-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We calibrate a new version of the World Ocean Model of Biogeochemistry and Trophic dynamics (WOMBAT-lite) using a surrogate machine learning approach. A Gaussian process surrogate trained on 512 simulations emulated tens of thousands, enabling global sensitivity analysis and Bayesian optimization of 26 parameters. We constrain 13 key parameters, improving fit to 8 datasets (chlorophyll a, air–sea CO₂ fluxes, nutrient limitation), and provide an optimal set for community use.
Andrew D. King, Nerilie J. Abram, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1605–1609, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1605-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1605-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
It is vital that climate changes under net zero emissions are well understood to support decision making processes. Current modelling efforts are insufficient, partly due to limited simulation lengths. We propose a framework for 1000-year-long simulations that attempts to minimise computing resources by leveraging existing simulations. This will increase understanding of the implications of current climate policies for the Earth System over coming decades and centuries.
Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Christian Stepanek, Chris Brierley, David Schroeder, Masa Kageyama, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ed Blockley, Alex West, Danny Feltham, Jeff Ridley, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, Xiaoxu Shi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Sophia I. Macarewich, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Qiong Zhang, Allegra LeGrande, Weipeng Zheng, Dabang Jiang, Polina Morozova, Chuncheng Guo, Zhongshi Zhang, Nicholas Yeung, Laurie Menviel, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Olivia Reeves, Matthew Pollock, and Anni Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3531, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic may have lost its summer sea ice 127,000 years ago during a naturally warm period in Earth’s past. Climate models can be tested by recreating those conditions, with similar sunlight and greenhouse gas levels. Analysing the large sea ice changes in these simulations helps us understand how the Arctic might respond in the near future and improves how we test and trust our climate models.
Colin Jones, Isaline Bossert, Donovan P. Dennis, Hazel Jeffery, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Sina Loriani, Benjamin Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Manabu Abe, Sebastian Bathiany, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Patrica Cadule, Frederic S. Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Andrea Dittus, Jonathan F. Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas Frölicher, Goran Georgievski, Chuncheng Guo, Aixue Hu, Peter Lawrence, Paul Lerner, José Licón-Saláiz, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Anastasia Romanou, Elena Shevliakova, Yona Silvy, Didier Swingedouw, Jerry Tjiputra, Jeremy Walton, Andy Wiltshire, Ricarda Winkelmann, Richard Wood, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3604, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new Earth system model experiment protocol to help researchers understand how Earth might respond to positive, zero, and negative carbon emissions. This protocol enables different models to be compared following similar warming and cooling rates. Researchers use the models to explore how the Earth reacts to different climate futures, including the risk of tipping points being exceeded and whether changes can be reversed. The results will support improved long-term climate policy.
Yanxuan Du, Josephine R. Brown, Laurie Menviel, Himadri Saini, Russell N. Drysdale, David K. Hutchinson, and Calla N. Gould-Whaley
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4212, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4212, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the climate responses to different magnitudes of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakening under glacial conditions using the Australian Earth System Model. We find that the climate patterns show relatively linear response with the AMOC weakening; however, crossing the threshold of AMOC shutdown results in non-linear and more complex climate responses. The results highlight the importance of not crossing the threshold of AMOC shutdown in the future.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie A. Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew H. MacDougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Isla R. Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5699–5724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining the understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation of emissions or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated the Zero Emissions Commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
Takashi Obase, Laurie Menviel, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Tristan Vadsaria, Ruza Ivanovic, Brooke Snoll, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Paul J. Valdes, Lauren Gregoire, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier Roche, Fanny Lhardy, Chengfei He, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Zhengyu Liu, and Wing-Le Chan
Clim. Past, 21, 1443–1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses transient simulations of the last deglaciation performed by six climate models to understand the processes driving high-southern-latitude temperature changes. We find that atmospheric CO2 and AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) changes are the primary drivers of the warming and cooling during the middle stage of the deglaciation. The analysis highlights the model's sensitivity of CO2 and AMOC to meltwater and the meltwater history of temperature changes at high southern latitudes.
Zanna Chase, Karen E. Kohfeld, Amy Leventer, David Lund, Xavier Crosta, Laurie Menviel, Helen C. Bostock, Matthew Chadwick, Samuel L. Jaccard, Jacob Jones, Alice Marzocchi, Katrin J. Meissner, Elisabeth Sikes, Louise C. Sime, and Luke Skinner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3504, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of recent dramatic declines in Antarctic sea ice on the Earth system are uncertain. We reviewed how sea ice affects ocean circulation, ice sheets, winds, and the carbon cycle by considering theory and modern observations alongside paleo-proxy reconstructions. We found evidence for connections between sea ice and these systems but also conflicting results, which point to missing knowledge. Our work highlights the complex role of sea ice in the Earth system.
Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Idealized experiments with Earth system models provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to emissions. We show that most models exhibit a quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon uptake on land and in the ocean and hypothesize that this relationship does not depend on emission pathways. We reduce the coupled system to only one differential equation, which represents a powerful simplification of the Earth system dynamics as a function of fossil fuel emissions.
Gabriel M. Pontes, Pedro L. da Silva Dias, and Laurie Menviel
Clim. Past, 21, 1079–1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1079-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño events are the main drivers of year-to-year climate variability. Understanding how El Niño activity is affected by different climate states is of great relevance to agriculture, water, ecosystem, and climate risk management. Through analysis of past and future climate simulations, we show that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sensitivity to mean state changes is nonlinear and, to some extent, shaped by atmospheric CO2 levels.
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 803–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored the impact of anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) on climate dynamics, focusing on biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects using data from the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We found that LUC-induced carbon emissions contribute to a BGC warming of 0.21 °C, with BGC effects dominating globally over BGP effects, which show regional variability. Our findings highlight discrepancies in model simulations and emphasize the need for improved representations of LUC processes.
Himadri Saini, David K. Hutchinson, Josephine R. Brown, Russell N. Drysdale, Yanxuan Du, and Laurie Menviel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1990, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1990, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how large ice sheets during the last Ice Age influenced global weather patterns. We found that the presence of these ice sheets affected rainfall patterns in regions like Eurasia and Australia. By altering wind and weather systems, they shifted the position of the tropical rainbelt and impacted the circulation of air in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Our research helps us understand past climate changes and their potential effects on future climate patterns.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2111–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed carbon and nitrogen mass conservation in data from various Earth system models. Our findings reveal significant discrepancies between flux and pool size data, where cumulative imbalances can reach hundreds of gigatons of carbon or nitrogen. These imbalances appear primarily due to missing or inconsistently reported fluxes – especially for land-use and fire emissions. To enhance data quality, we recommend that future climate data protocols address this issue at the reporting stage.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Babette A.A. Hoogakker, Catherine Davis, Yi Wang, Stephanie Kusch, Katrina Nilsson-Kerr, Dalton S. Hardisty, Allison Jacobel, Dharma Reyes Macaya, Nicolaas Glock, Sha Ni, Julio Sepúlveda, Abby Ren, Alexandra Auderset, Anya V. Hess, Katrin J. Meissner, Jorge Cardich, Robert Anderson, Christine Barras, Chandranath Basak, Harold J. Bradbury, Inda Brinkmann, Alexis Castillo, Madelyn Cook, Kassandra Costa, Constance Choquel, Paula Diz, Jonas Donnenfield, Felix J. Elling, Zeynep Erdem, Helena L. Filipsson, Sebastián Garrido, Julia Gottschalk, Anjaly Govindankutty Menon, Jeroen Groeneveld, Christian Hallmann, Ingrid Hendy, Rick Hennekam, Wanyi Lu, Jean Lynch-Stieglitz, Lélia Matos, Alfredo Martínez-García, Giulia Molina, Práxedes Muñoz, Simone Moretti, Jennifer Morford, Sophie Nuber, Svetlana Radionovskaya, Morgan Reed Raven, Christopher J. Somes, Anja S. Studer, Kazuyo Tachikawa, Raúl Tapia, Martin Tetard, Tyler Vollmer, Xingchen Wang, Shuzhuang Wu, Yan Zhang, Xin-Yuan Zheng, and Yuxin Zhou
Biogeosciences, 22, 863–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-863-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Paleo-oxygen proxies can extend current records, constrain pre-anthropogenic baselines, provide datasets necessary to test climate models under different boundary conditions, and ultimately understand how ocean oxygenation responds on longer timescales. Here we summarize current proxies used for the reconstruction of Cenozoic seawater oxygen levels. This includes an overview of the proxy's history, how it works, resources required, limitations, and future recommendations.
Detlef van Vuuren, Brian O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin Sanderson, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew Jones, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camila Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Luciana Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven Rose, Alexander Ruane, Carl-Friederich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a set of six plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Andrew D. King, Tilo Ziehn, Matthew Chamberlain, Alexander R. Borowiak, Josephine R. Brown, Liam Cassidy, Andrea J. Dittus, Michael Grose, Nicola Maher, Seungmok Paik, Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, and Aditya Sengupta
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1353–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Governments are targeting net-zero emissions later this century with the aim of limiting global warming in line with the Paris Agreement. However, few studies explore the long-term consequences of reaching net-zero emissions and the effects of a delay in reaching net-zero. We use the Australian Earth system model to examine climate evolution under net-zero emissions. We find substantial changes which differ regionally, including continued Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic sea ice reduction.
Ana-Cristina Mârza, Laurie Menviel, and Luke C. Skinner
Geochronology, 6, 503–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-503-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-503-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Radiocarbon serves as a powerful dating tool, but the calibration of marine radiocarbon dates presents significant challenges because the whole surface ocean cannot be represented by a single calibration curve. Here we use climate model outputs and data to assess a novel method for developing regional marine calibration curves. Our results are encouraging and point to a way forward for solving the marine radiocarbon age calibration problem without relying on model simulations of the past.
Benoît Pasquier, Mark Holzer, and Matthew A. Chamberlain
Biogeosciences, 21, 3373–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3373-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How do perpetually slower and warmer oceans sequester carbon? Compared to the preindustrial state, we find that biological productivity declines despite warming-stimulated growth because of a lower nutrient supply from depth. This throttles the biological carbon pump, which still sequesters more carbon because it takes longer to return to the surface. The deep ocean is isolated from the surface, allowing more carbon from the atmosphere to pass through the ocean without contributing to biology.
Matthew A. Chamberlain, Tilo Ziehn, and Rachel M. Law
Biogeosciences, 21, 3053–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores the climate processes that drive increasing global average temperatures in zero-emission commitment (ZEC) simulations despite decreasing atmospheric CO2. ACCESS-ESM1.5 shows the Southern Ocean to continue to warm locally in all ZEC simulations. In ZEC simulations that start after the emission of more than 1000 Pg of carbon, the influence of the Southern Ocean increases the global temperature.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Brooke Snoll, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Laurie Menviel, Takashi Obase, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Chengfei He, Feng He, Marie Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Juan Muglia, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 789–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Geological records show rapid climate change throughout the recent deglaciation. The drivers of these changes are still misunderstood but are often attributed to shifts in the Atlantic Ocean circulation from meltwater input. A cumulative effort to understand these processes prompted numerous simulations of this period. We use these to explain the chain of events and our collective ability to simulate them. The results demonstrate the importance of the meltwater amount used in the simulation.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Laurie C. Menviel, Paul Spence, Andrew E. Kiss, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Hakase Hayashida, Matthew H. England, and Darryn Waugh
Biogeosciences, 20, 4413–4431, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4413-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4413-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the ocean absorbs 25% of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon, it is important to understand the impact of climate change on the flux of carbon between the ocean and the atmosphere. Here, we use a very high-resolution ocean, sea-ice, carbon cycle model to show that the capability of the Southern Ocean to uptake CO2 has decreased over the last 40 years due to a strengthening and poleward shift of the southern hemispheric westerlies. This trend is expected to continue over the coming century.
Himadri Saini, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, and Karin Kvale
Clim. Past, 19, 1559–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1559-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the changes in atmospheric CO2 during the last glacial cycle is crucial to comprehend the impact of climate change in the future. Previous research has hypothesised a key role of greater aeolian iron input into the Southern Ocean in influencing the global atmospheric CO2 levels by impacting the changes in the marine phytoplankton response. In our study, we test this iron hypothesis using climate modelling and constrain the impact of ocean iron supply on global CO2 decrease.
Benoît Pasquier, Mark Holzer, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Richard J. Matear, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, and François W. Primeau
Biogeosciences, 20, 2985–3009, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2985-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2985-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling the ocean's carbon and oxygen cycles accurately is challenging. Parameter optimization improves the fit to observed tracers but can introduce artifacts in the biological pump. Organic-matter production and subsurface remineralization rates adjust to compensate for circulation biases, changing the pathways and timescales with which nutrients return to the surface. Circulation biases can thus strongly alter the system’s response to ecological change, even when parameters are optimized.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Xavier Crosta, Karen E. Kohfeld, Helen C. Bostock, Matthew Chadwick, Alice Du Vivier, Oliver Esper, Johan Etourneau, Jacob Jones, Amy Leventer, Juliane Müller, Rachael H. Rhodes, Claire S. Allen, Pooja Ghadi, Nele Lamping, Carina B. Lange, Kelly-Anne Lawler, David Lund, Alice Marzocchi, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Abhilash Nair, Molly Patterson, Jennifer Pike, Joseph G. Prebble, Christina Riesselman, Henrik Sadatzki, Louise C. Sime, Sunil K. Shukla, Lena Thöle, Maria-Elena Vorrath, Wenshen Xiao, and Jiao Yang
Clim. Past, 18, 1729–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Despite its importance in the global climate, our knowledge of Antarctic sea-ice changes throughout the last glacial–interglacial cycle is extremely limited. As part of the Cycles of Sea Ice Dynamics in the Earth system (C-SIDE) Working Group, we review marine- and ice-core-based sea-ice proxies to provide insights into their applicability and limitations. By compiling published records, we provide information on Antarctic sea-ice dynamics over the past 130 000 years.
Ryan A. Green, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Xavier Crosta, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 18, 845–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are used to predict future climate changes and as such, it is important to assess their performance in simulating past climate changes. We analyze seasonal sea-ice cover over the Southern Ocean simulated from numerical PMIP3, PMIP4 and LOVECLIM simulations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Comparing these simulations to proxy data, we provide improved estimates of LGM seasonal sea-ice cover. Our estimate of summer sea-ice extent is 20 %–30 % larger than previous estimates.
Dipayan Choudhury, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Matthew Chamberlain, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 18, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-507-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the effects of a warmer climate from the Earth's paleoclimate (last interglacial) on the marine carbon cycle of the Southern Ocean using a carbon-cycle-enabled state-of-the-art climate model. We find a 150 % increase in CO2 outgassing during this period, which results from competition between higher sea surface temperatures and weaker oceanic circulation. From this we unequivocally infer that the carbon uptake by the Southern Ocean will reduce under a future warming scenario.
Matthew A. Chamberlain, Peter R. Oke, Russell A. S. Fiedler, Helen M. Beggs, Gary B. Brassington, and Prasanth Divakaran
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5663–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5663-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
BRAN2020 is a dynamical reconstruction of the ocean, combining observations with a high-resolution global ocean model. BRAN2020 currently spans January 1993 to December 2019, assimilating in situ temperature and salinity, as well as satellite-based sea level and sea surface temperature. A new multiscale approach to data assimilation constrains the broad-scale ocean properties and turbulent mesoscale dynamics in two steps, showing closer agreement to observations than all previous versions.
Karin Kvale, David P. Keller, Wolfgang Koeve, Katrin J. Meissner, Christopher J. Somes, Wanxuan Yao, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7255–7285, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7255-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7255-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new model of biological marine silicate cycling for the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). This new model adds diatoms, which are a key aspect of the biological carbon pump, to an existing ecosystem model. Our modifications change how the model responds to warming, with net primary production declining more strongly than in previous versions. Diatoms in particular are simulated to decline with climate warming due to their high nutrient requirements.
Jun Shao, Lowell D. Stott, Laurie Menviel, Andy Ridgwell, Malin Ödalen, and Mayhar Mohtadi
Clim. Past, 17, 1507–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1507-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Planktic and shallow benthic foraminiferal stable carbon isotope
(δ13C) data show a rapid decline during the last deglaciation. This widespread signal was linked to respired carbon released from the deep ocean and its transport through the upper-ocean circulation. Using numerical simulations in which a stronger flux of respired carbon upwells and outcrops in the Southern Ocean, we find that the depleted δ13C signal is transmitted to the rest of the upper ocean through air–sea gas exchange.
Nicholas King-Hei Yeung, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Andréa S. Taschetto, Tilo Ziehn, and Matthew Chamberlain
Clim. Past, 17, 869–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-869-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-869-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is characterised by strong orbital forcing compared to the pre-industrial period (PI). This study compares the mean climate state of the LIG to the PI as simulated by the ACCESS-ESM1.5, with a focus on the southern hemispheric monsoons, which are shown to be consistently weakened. This is associated with cooler terrestrial conditions in austral summer due to decreased insolation, and greater pressure and subsidence over land from Hadley cell strengthening.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Shannon A. Bengtson, Laurie C. Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Lise Missiaen, Carlye D. Peterson, Lorraine E. Lisiecki, and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 17, 507–528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-507-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The last interglacial was a warm period that may provide insights into future climates. Here, we compile and analyse stable carbon isotope data from the ocean during the last interglacial and compare it to the Holocene. The data show that Atlantic Ocean circulation was similar during the last interglacial and the Holocene. We also establish a difference in the mean oceanic carbon isotopic ratio between these periods, which was most likely caused by burial and weathering carbon fluxes.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Cited articles
Altieri, A., Harrison, S., Seemann, J., Collin, R., Diaz, R., and Knowlton, N.: Tropical dead zones and mass mortalities on coral reefs, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 3660–3665, 2017. a
Andersen, M., Matthews, A., Vance, D., Bar-Matthews, M., Archer, C., and de Souza, G.: A 10-fold decline in the deep Eastern Mediterranean thermohaline overturning circulation during the last interglacial period, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 503, 58–67, 2018. a
Anderson, R. F., Sachs, J. P., Fleisher, M. Q., Allen, K. A., Yu, J., Koutavas, A., and Jaccard, S. L.: Deep-Sea Oxygen Depletion and Ocean Carbon Sequestration During the Last Ice Age, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 33, 301–317, 2019. a
Bahl, A., Gnanadesikan, A., and Pradal, M.-A.: Variations in Ocean Deoxygenation Across Earth System Models: Isolating the Role of Parameterized Lateral Mixing, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 33, 703–724, 2019. a
Barbosa Aguiar, A., Peliz, A., Neves, F., Bashmachnikov, I., and Carton, X.: Mediterranean outflow transports and entrainment estimates from observations and high-resolution modelling, Progr. Oceanogr., 131, 33–45, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2014.11.008, 2015. a
Bartlein, P. J. and Shafer, S. L.: Paleo calendar-effect adjustments in time-slice and transient climate-model simulations (PaleoCalAdjust v1.0): impact and strategies for data analysis, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3889–3913, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3889-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d
Bengtson, S. A., Menviel, L. C., Meissner, K. J., Missiaen, L., Peterson, C. D., Lisiecki, L. E., and Joos, F.: Lower oceanic δ13C during the last interglacial period compared to the Holocene, Clim. Past, 17, 507–528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-507-2021, 2021. a
Bereiter, B., Eggleston, S., Schmitt, J., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Stocker, T. F., Fischer, H., Kipfstuhl, S., and Chappellaz, J.: Revision of the EPICA Dome C CO2 record from 800 to 600 kyr before present, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 542–549, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061957, 2015. a
Berger, A.: Long-term variations of caloric insolation resulting from the earth's orbital elements, Quaternary Res., 9, 139–167, https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(78)90064-9, 1978. a
Bopp, L., Resplandy, L., Orr, J. C., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Halloran, P., Heinze, C., Ilyina, T., Séférian, R., Tjiputra, J., and Vichi, M.: Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 10, 6225–6245, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013, 2013. a, b
Breitburg, D., Levin, L. A., Oschlies, A., Grégoire, M., Chavez, F. P., Conley, D. J., Garçon, V., Gilbert, D., Gutiérrez, D., Isensee, K., Jacinto, G. S., Limburg, K. E., Montes, I., Naqvi, S. W. A., Pitcher, G. C., Rabalais, N. N., Roman, M. R., Rose, K. A., Seibel, B. A., Telszewski, M., Yasuhara, M., and Zhang, J.: Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters, Science, 359, eaam7240, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam7240, 2018. a
Cartapanis, O., Tachikawa, K., Romero, O. E., and Bard, E.: Persistent millennial-scale link between Greenland climate and northern Pacific Oxygen Minimum Zone under interglacial conditions, Clim. Past, 10, 405–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-405-2014, 2014. a, b
Chamberlain, M. A., Ziehn, T., and Law, R. M.: The Southern Ocean as the climate's freight train – driving ongoing global warming under zero-emission scenarios with ACCESS-ESM1.5, Biogeosciences, 21, 3053–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, 2024. a
Clarke, T. M., Wabnitz, C. C., Striegel, S., Frölicher, T. L., Reygondeau, G., and Cheung, W. W.: Aerobic growth index (AGI): An index to understand the impacts of ocean warming and deoxygenation on global marine fisheries resources, Progr. Oceanogr., 195, 102588, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102588, 2021. a
Craig, A., Valcke, S., and Coquart, L.: Development and performance of a new version of the OASIS coupler, OASIS3-MCT_3.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3297–3308, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3297-2017, 2017. a
den Dulk, M., Reichart, G., Memon, G., Roelofs, E., Zachariasse, W., and van der Zwaan, G.: Benthic foraminiferal response to variations in surface water productivity and oxygenation in the northern Arabian Sea, Mar. Micropaleontol., 35, 43–66, 1998. a
Diaz, R. J. and Rosenberg, R.: Spreading Dead Zones and Consequences for Marine Ecosystems, Science, 321, 926–929, 2008. a
Donald, H. K., Swann, G. E. A., Rae, J. W. B., and Foster, G. L.: Carbon Cycle and Circulation Change in the North Pacific Ocean at the Initiation of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation Constrained by Boron-Based Proxies in Diatoms, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 39, e2024PA004968, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024PA004968, 2024. a
Duteil, O. and Oschlies, A.: Sensitivity of simulated extent and future evolution of marine suboxia to mixing intensity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06607, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046877, 2011. a
Duteil, O., Koeve, W., Oschlies, A., Bianchi, D., Galbraith, E., Kriest, I., and Matear, R.: A novel estimate of ocean oxygen utilisation points to a reduced rate of respiration in the ocean interior, Biogeosciences, 10, 7723–7738, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7723-2013, 2013. a
Elderfield, H., Ferretti, P., Greaves, M., Crowhurst, S., McCave, I. N., Hodell, D., and Piotrowski, A. M.: Evolution of Ocean Temperature and Ice Volume Through the Mid-Pleistocene Climate Transition, Science, 337, 704–709, 2012. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Fontugne, M. R. and Calvert, S. E.: Late Pleistocene Variability of the Carbon Isotopic Composition of Organic Matter in the Eastern Mediterranean: Monitor of Changes in Carbon Sources and Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations, Paleoceanography, 7, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1029/91PA02674, 1992. a, b
Frölicher, T. L., Aschwanden, M. T., Gruber, N., Jaccard, S. L., Dunne, J. P., and Paynter, D.: Contrasting Upper and Deep Ocean Oxygen Response to Protracted Global Warming, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 34, e2020GB006601, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006601, 2020. a
Galbraith, E. D., Kienast, M., Pedersen, T. F., and Calvert, S. E.: Glacial-interglacial modulation of the marine nitrogen cycle by high-latitude O2 supply to the global thermocline, Paleoceanography, 19, PA4007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003PA001000, 2004. a, b
Ganeshram, R. S., Pedersen, T. F., Calvert, S. E., McNeill, G. W., and Fontugne, M. R.: Glacial-interglacial variability in denitrification in the World's Oceans: Causes and consequences, Paleoceanography, 15, 361–376, 2000. a
Garcia, H. E., Wang, Z., Bouchard, C., Cross, S. L., Paver, C. R., Reagan, J. R., Boyer, T. P., Locarnini, R. A., Mishonov, A. V., Baranova, O., Seidov, D., and Dukhovskoy D.: World Ocean Atlas 2023, Volume 3: Dissolved Oxygen, Apparent Oxygen Utilization, and Oxygen Saturation, edited by: Mishonov, A., NOAA Atlas NESDIS 91, National Centers for Environmental Information (U.S.), https://doi.org/10.25923/rb67-ns53, 2024. a
Glasscock, S. K., Hayes, C. T., Redmond, N., and Rohde, E.: Changes in Antarctic Bottom Water Formation During Interglacial Periods, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 35, e2020PA003867, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA003867, 2020. a
Glock, N., Erdem, Z., and Schönfeld, J.: The Peruvian oxygen minimum zone was similar in extent but weaker during the Last Glacial Maximum than Late Holocene, Communications Earth & Environment, 3, 307, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00635-y, 2022. a
Gnanadesikan, A., Dunne, J. P., and John, J.: Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model, Biogeosciences, 9, 1159–1172, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-1159-2012, 2012. a
Gottschalk, J., Skinner, L. C., Jaccard, S. L., Menviel, L., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., and Waelbroeck, C.: Southern Ocean link between changes in atmospheric CO2 levels and northern-hemisphere climate anomalies during the last two glacial periods, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 230, 106067, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.106067, 2020. a
Grant, K., Grimm, R., Mikolajewicz, U., Marino, G., Ziegler, M., and Rohling, E.: The timing of Mediterranean sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level and African monsoon changes, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 140, 125–141, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.03.026, 2016. a
Griffies, S.: Elements of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM) 5: (2012 release with updates), Tech. rep., GFDL Ocean Group Tech. Rep. 7, NOAA, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, 618, 2014. a
Hayes, C. T., Martínez-García, A., Hasenfratz, A. P., Jaccard, S. L., Hodell, D. A., Sigman, D. M., Haug, G. H., and Anderson, R. F.: A stagnation event in the deep South Atlantic during the last interglacial period, Science, 346, 1514–1517, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1256620, 2014. a
Hoogakker, B., Elderfield, H., Schmiedl, G., McCave, I. N., and Rickaby, R. E. M.: Glacial–interglacial changes in bottom-water oxygen content on the Portuguese margin, Nat. Geosci., 8, 40–43, 2015. a
Hoogakker, B., Lu, Z., Umling, N., Jones, L., Zhou, X., Rickaby, R. E. M., Thunell, R., Cartapanis, O., and Galbraith, E.: Glacial expansion of oxygen-depleted seawater in the eastern tropical Pacific, Nature, 562, 410–413, 2018. a
Hoogakker, B. A. A., Thornalley, D. J. R., and Barker, S.: Millennial changes in North Atlantic oxygen concentrations, Biogeosciences, 13, 211–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-211-2016, 2016. a
Hoogakker, B. A. A., Davis, C., Wang, Y., Kusch, S., Nilsson-Kerr, K., Hardisty, D. S., Jacobel, A., Reyes Macaya, D., Glock, N., Ni, S., Sepúlveda, J., Ren, A., Auderset, A., Hess, A. V., Meissner, K. J., Cardich, J., Anderson, R., Barras, C., Basak, C., Bradbury, H. J., Brinkmann, I., Castillo, A., Cook, M., Costa, K., Choquel, C., Diz, P., Donnenfield, J., Elling, F. J., Erdem, Z., Filipsson, H. L., Garrido, S., Gottschalk, J., Govindankutty Menon, A., Groeneveld, J., Hallmann, C., Hendy, I., Hennekam, R., Lu, W., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Matos, L., Martínez-García, A., Molina, G., Muñoz, P., Moretti, S., Morford, J., Nuber, S., Radionovskaya, S., Raven, M. R., Somes, C. J., Studer, A. S., Tachikawa, K., Tapia, R., Tetard, M., Vollmer, T., Wang, X., Wu, S., Zhang, Y., Zheng, X.-Y., and Zhou, Y.: Reviews and syntheses: Review of proxies for low-oxygen paleoceanographic reconstructions, Biogeosciences, 22, 863–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-863-2025, 2025. a
Hunke, E. C., Lipscomb, W. H., Turner, A. K., Jeffery, N., and Elliott, S.: CICE: the Los Alamos sea ice model documentation and software user's manual version 4.1 LA-CC-01-012), Tech. rep., T-3 Fluid Dynamics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, 675, 500, 2010. a
Ito, T., Minobe, S., Long, M. C., and Deutsch, C.: Upper ocean O2 trends: 1958–2015, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 4214–4223, 2017. a
Jaccard, S. L., Galbraith, E., Sigman, D., Haug, G., Francois, R., Pedersen, T., Dulski, P., and Thierstein, H.: Subarctic Pacific evidence for a glacial deepening of the oceanic respired carbon pool, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 277, 156–165, 2009. a
Jacobel, A., Anderson, R., Jaccard, S., McManus, J., Pavia, F., and Winckler, G.: Deep Pacific storage of respired carbon during the last ice age: Perspectives from bottom water oxygen reconstructions, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 230, 106065, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.106065, 2020. a
Jimenez-Espejo, F. J., García-Alix, A., Harada, N., Bahr, A., Sakai, S., Iijima, K., Chang, Q., Sato, K., Suzuki, K., and Ohkouchi, N.: Changes in detrital input, ventilation and productivity in the central Okhotsk Sea during the marine isotope stage 5e, penultimate interglacial period, J. Asian Earth Sci., 156, 189–200, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2018.01.032, 2018. a
Kageyama, M., Sime, L. C., Sicard, M., Guarino, M.-V., de Vernal, A., Stein, R., Schroeder, D., Malmierca-Vallet, I., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bitz, C., Braconnot, P., Brady, E. C., Cao, J., Chamberlain, M. A., Feltham, D., Guo, C., LeGrande, A. N., Lohmann, G., Meissner, K. J., Menviel, L., Morozova, P., Nisancioglu, K. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., O'ishi, R., Ramos Buarque, S., Salas y Melia, D., Sherriff-Tadano, S., Stroeve, J., Shi, X., Sun, B., Tomas, R. A., Volodin, E., Yeung, N. K. H., Zhang, Q., Zhang, Z., Zheng, W., and Ziehn, T.: A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences, Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021. a
Kallel, N., Duplessy, J.-C., Labeyrie, L., Fontugne, M., Paterne, M., and Montacer, M.: Mediterranean pluvial periods and sapropel formation over the last 200 000 years, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 157, 45–58, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0031-0182(99)00149-2, 2000. a, b
Köng, E., Zaragosi, S., Schneider, J.-L., Garlan, T., Bachèlery, P., Sabine, M., and San Pedro, L.: Gravity-Driven Deposits in an Active Margin (Ionian Sea) Over the Last 330,000 Years, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 18, 4186–4210, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GC006950, 2017. a
Konijnendijk, T., Ziegler, M., and Lourens, L.: Chronological constraints on Pleistocene sapropel depositions from high resolution geochemical records of ODP Sites 967 and 968, Newsl. Stratigr., 47, 263–282, https://doi.org/10.1127/0078-0421/2014/0047, 2014. a
Kowalczyk, E., Stevens, L., Law, R., Dix, M., Wang, Y., Harman, I., Haynes, K., Srbinovsky, J., Pak, B., and Ziehn, T.: The land surface model component of ACCESS: description and impact on the simulated surface climatology, Aust. Meteorol. Ocean., 63, 65–82, 2013. a
Kwiatkowski, L., Torres, O., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Chamberlain, M., Christian, J. R., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., Lenton, A., Li, H., Lovenduski, N. S., Orr, J. C., Palmieri, J., Santana-Falcón, Y., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Stock, C. A., Tagliabue, A., Takano, Y., Tjiputra, J., Toyama, K., Tsujino, H., Watanabe, M., Yamamoto, A., Yool, A., and Ziehn, T.: Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections, Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020. a
Landry, C., Steele, S., Manning, S., and Cheek, A.: Long term hypoxia suppresses reproductive capacity in the estuarine fish, Fundulus grandis, Comp. Biochem. Physiol. A Mol. Integr. Physiol., 148, 317–23, 2007. a
Law, R. M., Ziehn, T., Matear, R. J., Lenton, A., Chamberlain, M. A., Stevens, L. E., Wang, Y.-P., Srbinovsky, J., Bi, D., Yan, H., and Vohralik, P. F.: The carbon cycle in the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-ESM1) – Part 1: Model description and pre-industrial simulation, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2567–2590, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2567-2017, 2017. a
Lessa, D. V., Santos, T. P., Venancio, I. M., and Albuquerque, A. L. S.: Offshore expansion of the Brazilian coastal upwelling zones during Marine Isotope Stage 5, Global Planet. Change, 158, 13–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.09.006, 2017. a
Levermann, A. and Born, A.: Bistability of the Atlantic subpolar gyre in a coarse-resolution climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L24605, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031732, 2007. a
Levin, L. A.: Manifestation, Drivers, and Emergence of Open Ocean Deoxygenation, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 10, 229–260, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-121916-063359, 2018. a
Long, M. C., Deutsch, C., and Ito, T.: Finding forced trends in oceanic oxygen, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 30, 381–397, 2016. a
Loulergue, L., Schilt, A., Spahni, R., Masson-Delmotte, V., Blunier, T., Lemieux, B., Barnola, J.-M., Raynaud, D., Stocker, T. F., and Chappellaz, J.: Orbital and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800 000 years, Nature, 453, 383–386, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06950, 2008. a
Lu, Z., Hoogakker, B., Hillenbrand, C.-D., Zhou, X., Thomas, E., Gutchess, K., Lu, W., Jones, L., and Rickaby, R.: Oxygen depletion recorded in upper waters of the glacial Southern Ocean, Nat. Commun., 7, 11146, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11146, 2016. a
Mackallah, C., Chamberlain, M. A., Law, R. M., Dix, M., Ziehn, T., Bi, D., Bodman, R., Brown, J. R., Dobrohotoff, P., Druken, K., Evans, B., Harman, I. N., Hayashida, H., Holmes, R., Kiss, A. E., Lenton, A., Liu, Y., Marsland, S., Meissner, K., Menviel, L., O'Farrell, S., Rashid, H. A., Ridzwan, S., Savita, A., Srbinovsky, J., Sullivan, A., Trenham, C., Vohralik, P. F., Wang, Y. P., Williams, G., Woodhouse, M. T., and Yeung, N.: ACCESS datasets for CMIP6: methodology and idealised experiments, Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 72, 93–116, 2022. a
Maréchal, C., Boutier, A., Mélières, M.-A., Clauzel, T., Betancort, J. F., Lomoschitz, A., Meco, J., Fourel, F., Barral, A., Amiot, R., and Lécuyer, C.: Last Interglacial sea surface warming during the sea-level highstand in the Canary Islands: Implications for the Canary Current and the upwelling off African coast, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 234, 106246, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106246, 2020. a
Martin, G. M., Milton, S. F., Senior, C. A., Brooks, M. E., Ineson, S., Reichler, T., and Kim, J.: Analysis and Reduction of Systematic Errors through a Seamless Approach to Modeling Weather and Climate, J. Climate, 23, 5933–5957, 2010. a
Matul, A., Abelmann, A., Khusid, T., Chekhovskaya, M., Kaiser, A., Nürnberg, D., and Tiedemann, R.: Late Quaternary changes of the oxygen conditions in the bottom and intermediate waters on the western Kamchatka continental slope, the Sea of Okhotsk, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 125–126, 184–190, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.03.023, 2016. a
McCormick, L. and Levin, L.: Physiological and ecological implications of ocean deoxygenation for vision in marine organisms, Philos. Trans. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 375, 20160322, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0322, 2017. a
Meissner, K. J., Galbraith, E. D., and Völker, C.: Denitrification under glacial and interglacial conditions: A physical approach, Paleoceanography, 20, PA3001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004PA001083, 2005. a
Melki, T., Kallel, N., and Fontugne, M.: The nature of transitions from dry to wet condition during sapropel events in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 291, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2010.02.039, 2010. a
Menviel, L., Govin, A., Avenas, A., Meissner, K., Grant, K., and Tzedakis, C.: Drivers of the evolution and amplitude of African Humid Periods, Communications Earth & Environment, 2, 237, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00309-1, 2021. a
Mitsui, T., Tzedakis, P. C., and Wolff, E. W.: Insolation evolution and ice volume legacies determine interglacial and glacial intensity, Clim. Past, 18, 1983–1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1983-2022, 2022. a, b
Moffitt, S., Moffitt, R., Sauthoff, W., Davis, C., Hewett, K., and Hill, T. M.: Paleoceanographic Insights on Recent Oxygen Minimum Zone Expansion: Lessons for Modern Oceanography, PLoS ONE, 10, e0115246, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0115246, 2015. a
Muhs, D. R., Meco, J., and Simmons, K. R.: Uranium-series ages of corals, sea level history, and palaeozoogeography, Canary Islands, Spain: An exploratory study for two Quaternary interglacial periods, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 394, 99–118, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2013.11.015, 2014. a
Murat, A.: Pliocene-Pleistocene occurrence of sapropels in the Western Mediterranean Sea and their relation to eastern Mediterranean sapropels, in: Proceedings of the Ocean Drilling Program, 161 Scientific Results, Texas A&M University, Ocean Drilling Program, College Station, TX, United States, https://doi.org/10.2973/odp.proc.sr.161.244.1999, 1999. a, b
Muratli, J. M., Chase, Z., Mix, A. C., and McManus, J.: Increased glacial-age ventilation of the Chilean margin by Antarctic Intermediate Water, Nat. Geosci., 3, 23–26, 2010. a
Nameroff, T. J., Calvert, S. E., and Murray, J. W.: Glacial-interglacial variability in the eastern tropical North Pacific oxygen minimum zone recorded by redox-sensitive trace metals, Paleoceanography, 19, PA1010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003PA000912, 2004. a
Oke, P. R., Griffin, D. A., Schiller, A., Matear, R. J., Fiedler, R., Mansbridge, J., Lenton, A., Cahill, M., Chamberlain, M. A., and Ridgway, K.: Evaluation of a near-global eddy-resolving ocean model, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 591–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-591-2013, 2013. a, b, c
Oki, T., Nishimura, T., and Dirmeyer, P.: Assessment of Annual Runoff from Land Surface Models Using Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP), J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 77, 235–255, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.77.1B_235, 1999. a
Oschlies, A.: A committed fourfold increase in ocean oxygen loss, Nat. Commun., 12, 2307, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22584-4, 2021. a
Oschlies, A., Duteil, O., Getzlaff, J., Koeve, W., Landolfi, A., and Schmidtko, S.: Patterns of deoxygenation: sensitivity to natural and anthropogenic drivers, Philos. Trans. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 375, 20160325, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0325, 2017. a
Oschlies, A., Brandt, P., Stramma, L., and Schmidtko, S.: Drivers and mechanisms of ocean deoxygenation, Nat. Geosci., 11, 467–473, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0152-2, 2018. a, b
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Lunt, D. J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albani, S., Bartlein, P. J., Capron, E., Carlson, A. E., Dutton, A., Fischer, H., Goelzer, H., Govin, A., Haywood, A., Joos, F., LeGrande, A. N., Lipscomb, W. H., Lohmann, G., Mahowald, N., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Pausata, F. S. R., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Phipps, S. J., Renssen, H., and Zhang, Q.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 2: Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017. a, b, c
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Zhao, A., Brierley, C. M., Axford, Y., Capron, E., Govin, A., Hoffman, J. S., Isaacs, E., Kageyama, M., Scussolini, P., Tzedakis, P. C., Williams, C. J. R., Wolff, E., Abe-Ouchi, A., Braconnot, P., Ramos Buarque, S., Cao, J., de Vernal, A., Guarino, M. V., Guo, C., LeGrande, A. N., Lohmann, G., Meissner, K. J., Menviel, L., Morozova, P. A., Nisancioglu, K. H., O'ishi, R., Salas y Mélia, D., Shi, X., Sicard, M., Sime, L., Stepanek, C., Tomas, R., Volodin, E., Yeung, N. K. H., Zhang, Q., Zhang, Z., and Zheng, W.: Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4), Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021. a, b, c
Penn, J. L. and Deutsch, C.: Avoiding ocean mass extinction from climate warming, Science, 376, 524–526, 2022. a
Pichevin, L., Martinez, P., Bertrand, P., Schneider, R., Giraudeau, J., and Emeis, K.: Nitrogen cycling on the Namibian shelf and slope over the last two climatic cycles: Local and global forcings, Paleoceanography, 20, PA2006, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004PA001001, 2005. a
Poore, R., Dowsett, H., Barron, J., Heusser, L., Ravelo, A., and Mix, A.: Multiproxy Record of the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) off Central and Northern California, U.S.A., from Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1018 and 1020, U.S. Geological Survey, Professional Paper 1632, https://doi.org/10.3133/pp1632, 2000. a
Rohling, E., Grant, K., Bolshaw, M., Roberts, A., Siddall, M., Hemleben, C., and Kucera, M.: Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the past five glacial cycles, Nat. Geosci., 2, 500–504, 2009. a
Rose, K., Gutiérrez, D., Breitburg, D., Conley, D., Craig, K., Froehlich, H., Jeyabaskaran, R., Kripa, V., Mbaye, B., Mohamed, K., Padua, S., and Prema, D.: Chapter 10: Impacts of ocean deoxygenation on fisheries, in: Ocean deoxygenation, edited by: Laffoley, D. and Baxter, J. M., International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, ISBN 978-2-8317-2013-5, 2019. a
Rush, D., Talbot, H. M., van der Meer, M. T. J., Hopmans, E. C., Douglas, B., and Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.: Biomarker evidence for the occurrence of anaerobic ammonium oxidation in the eastern Mediterranean Sea during Quaternary and Pliocene sapropel formation, Biogeosciences, 16, 2467–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2467-2019, 2019. a, b
Santana-Falcón, Y., Yamamoto, A., Lenton, A., Jones, C. D., Burger, F. A., John, J. G., Tjiputra, J., Schwinger, J., Kawamiya, M., Frölicher, T. L., Ziehn, T., and Séférian, R.: Irreversible loss in marine ecosystem habitability after a temperature overshoot, Communications Earth & Environment, 4, 343, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01002-1, 2023. a
Schilt, A., Baumgartner, M., Blunier, T., Schwander, J., Spahni, R., Fischer, H., and Stocker, T. F.: Glacial–interglacial and millennial-scale variations in the atmospheric nitrous oxide concentration during the last 800 000 years, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 182–192, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.03.011, 2010. a
Schmidtko, S., Stramma, L., and Visbeck, M.: Decline in global oceanic oxygen content during the past five decades, Nature, 542, 335–339, 2017. a
Scholz, F., McManus, J., Mix, A. C., Hensen, C., and Schneider, R. R.: The impact of ocean deoxygenation on iron release from continental margin sediments, Nat. Geosci., 7, 433–437, 2014. a
Stott, L. D., Neumann, M., and Hammond, D.: Intermediate water ventilation on the northeastern Pacific Margin during the Late Pleistocene inferred from benthic foraminiferal δ13C, Paleoceanography, 15, 161–169, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999PA000375, 2000. a
Sweere, T., Hennekam, R., Vance, D., and Reichart, G.-J.: Molybdenum isotope constraints on the temporal development of sulfidic conditions during Mediterranean sapropel intervals, Geochemical Perspectives Letters, 17, 125–141, https://doi.org/10.7185/geochemlet.2108, 2021. a
Tesi, T., Asioli, A., Massara, E. P., Montagna, P., Pellegrini, C., Nogarotto, A., Cipriani, A., Piva, A., Muschitiello, F., Rovere, M., Viaggi, P., and Trincardi, F.: Abrupt and persistent shutdown of the thermohaline forcing during MIS5e in the Adriatic Sea: Insights from shallow-water sapropel sediments, Quaternary Science Advances, 13, 100134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qsa.2023.100134, 2024. a
The HadGEM2 Development Team: G. M. Martin, Bellouin, N., Collins, W. J., Culverwell, I. D., Halloran, P. R., Hardiman, S. C., Hinton, T. J., Jones, C. D., McDonald, R. E., McLaren, A. J., O'Connor, F. M., Roberts, M. J., Rodriguez, J. M., Woodward, S., Best, M. J., Brooks, M. E., Brown, A. R., Butchart, N., Dearden, C., Derbyshire, S. H., Dharssi, I., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Edwards, J. M., Falloon, P. D., Gedney, N., Gray, L. J., Hewitt, H. T., Hobson, M., Huddleston, M. R., Hughes, J., Ineson, S., Ingram, W. J., James, P. M., Johns, T. C., Johnson, C. E., Jones, A., Jones, C. P., Joshi, M. M., Keen, A. B., Liddicoat, S., Lock, A. P., Maidens, A. V., Manners, J. C., Milton, S. F., Rae, J. G. L., Ridley, J. K., Sellar, A., Senior, C. A., Totterdell, I. J., Verhoef, A., Vidale, P. L., and Wiltshire, A.: The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 723–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-723-2011, 2011. a
Ufkes, E. and Kroon, D.: Sensitivity of south-east Atlantic planktonic foraminifera to mid-Pleistocene climate change, Palaeontology, 55, 183–204, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4983.2011.01119.x, 2012. a
Vaquer-Sunyer, R. and Duarte, C. M.: Thresholds of hypoxia for marine biodiversity, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 15452–15457, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0803833105, 2008. a
Yao, Z., Shi, X., Yin, Q., Jaccard, S., Liu, Y., Guo, Z., Gorbarenko, S. A., Wang, K., Chen, T., Wu, Z., Nan, Q., Zou, J., Wang, H., Cui, J., Wang, A., Yang, G., Zhu, A., Bosin, A., Vasilenko, Y., and Yu, Y.: Ice sheet and precession controlled subarctic Pacific productivity and upwelling over the last 550 000 years, Nat. Commun., 15, 3489, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-47871-8, 2024. a
Yeung, N.: Simulated ocean oxygenation during the interglacials MIS 5e and MIS 9e, UNSW ResData [data set], https://doi.org/10.26190/unsworks/30420, 2024. a
Yeung, N. K.-H., Menviel, L., Meissner, K. J., Taschetto, A. S., Ziehn, T., and Chamberlain, M.: Land–sea temperature contrasts at the Last Interglacial and their impact on the hydrological cycle, Clim. Past, 17, 869–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-869-2021, 2021. a, b, c, d
Yeung, N. K.-H., Menviel, L., Meissner, K. J., Choudhury, D., Ziehn, T., and Chamberlain, M. A.: Last Interglacial subsurface warming on the Antarctic shelf triggered by reduced deep-ocean convection, Communications Earth & Environment, 5, 212, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01383-x, 2024. a, b, c
Short summary
We use an earth system model to simulate ocean oxygen during two past warm periods, the Last Interglacial (∼ 129–115 ka) and Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 9e (∼ 336–321 ka). The global ocean is overall less oxygenated compared to the preindustrial simulation. Large regions in the Mediterranean Sea are oxygen deprived in the Last Interglacial simulation, and to a lesser extent in the MIS 9e simulation, due to an intensification and expansion of the African monsoon and enhanced river runoff.
We use an earth system model to simulate ocean oxygen during two past warm periods, the Last...
