Articles | Volume 19, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2551-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2551-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Dec 2023
Research article |
| 14 Dec 2023
| 14 Dec 2023
Hysteresis and orbital pacing of the early Cenozoic Antarctic ice sheet
Jonas Van Breedam
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Earth System Science & Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Philippe Huybrechts
Earth System Science & Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Michel Crucifix
Earth and Life Institute, UCLouvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Related authors
Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook, Lawrence Bird, Dawid Gwyther, Daniel Richards, Matthias Scheiter, Yu Wang, Hélène Seroussi, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez‐Solas, Xylar S. Asay‐Davis, Jean‐Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Tyler Pelle, Aurélien Quiquet, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Chen Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Jonas Van Breedam, Philippe Huybrechts, and Michel Crucifix
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6373–6401, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheets are an important component of the climate system and interact with the atmosphere through albedo variations and changes in the surface height. On very long timescales, it is impossible to directly couple ice sheet models with climate models and other techniques have to be used. Here we present a novel coupling method between ice sheets and the atmosphere by making use of an emulator to simulate ice sheet–climate interactions for several million years.
Lander Van Tricht, Philippe Huybrechts, Jonas Van Breedam, Alexander Vanhulle, Kristof Van Oost, and Harry Zekollari
The Cryosphere, 15, 4445–4464, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4445-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted innovative research on the use of drones to determine the surface mass balance (SMB) of two glaciers. Considering appropriate spatial scales, we succeeded in determining the SMB in the ablation area with large accuracy. Consequently, we are convinced that our method and the use of drones to monitor the mass balance of a glacier’s ablation area can be an add-on to stake measurements in order to obtain a broader picture of the heterogeneity of the SMB of glaciers.
Jonas Van Breedam, Heiko Goelzer, and Philippe Huybrechts
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We made projections of global mean sea-level change during the next 10 000 years for a range in climate forcing scenarios ranging from a peak in carbon dioxide concentrations in the next decades to burning most of the available carbon reserves over the next 2 centuries. We find that global mean sea level will rise between 9 and 37 m, depending on the emission of greenhouse gases. In this study, we investigated the long-term consequence of climate change for sea-level rise.
Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook, Lawrence Bird, Dawid Gwyther, Daniel Richards, Matthias Scheiter, Yu Wang, Hélène Seroussi, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez‐Solas, Xylar S. Asay‐Davis, Jean‐Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Tyler Pelle, Aurélien Quiquet, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Chen Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
Takahito Mitsui, Peter Ditlevsen, Niklas Boers, and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1569–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1569-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1569-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The late Pleistocene glacial cycles are dominated by a 100-kyr periodicity, rather than other major astronomical periods like 19, 23, 41, or 400 kyr. Various models propose distinct mechanisms to explain this, but their diversity may obscure the key factor behind the 100-kyr periodicity. We propose a timescale-matching hypothesis, suggesting that the ice-sheet climate system responds to astronomical forcing at ∼100 kyr because its intrinsic timescale is closer to 100 kyr than to other periods.
Justin Gérard, Alexandre Pohl, Loïc Sablon, Jarno Huygh, Anne-Christine Da Silva, and Michel Crucifix
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4238, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how changes in Earth’s orbit affected ocean oxygen during the Devonian, a time of repeated environmental crises and extinctions. Using computer simulations, we show that certain orbital cycles, especially eccentricity maxima, exacerbate oxygen loss in the oceans, while obliquity also played a key role at high latitudes. The results also help explain why records from different places show contrasting signals and provide new insight into how natural climate cycles can affect ocean life.
Heiko Goelzer, Constantijn J. Berends, Fredrik Boberg, Gael Durand, Tamsin Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Quentin Glaude, Philippe Huybrechts, Sébastien Le clec'h, Ruth Mottram, Brice Noël, Martin Olesen, Charlotte Rahlves, Jeremy Rohmer, Michiel van den Broeke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3098, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present an ensemble of ice sheet model projections for the Greenland ice sheet. The focus is on providing projections that improve our understanding of the range future sea-level rise and the inherent uncertainties over the next 100 to 300 years. Compared to earlier work we more fully account for some of the uncertainties in sea-level projections. We include a wider range of climate model output, more climate change scenarios and we extend projections schematically up to year 2300.
Chloë Marie Paice, Xavier Fettweis, and Philippe Huybrechts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2465, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To study the interactions between the Greenland ice sheet and the atmosphere, we coupled an ice sheet model to a regional climate model and performed simulations of differing coupling complexity over 1000 years. They reveal that at first melt at the ice sheet margin is reduced by changing wind patterns. But over time, as the ice sheet surface lowers, precipitation patterns and cloudiness also change and amplify ice mass loss over the entire ice sheet.
Lilian Vanderveken and Michel Crucifix
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 189–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-189-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-189-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation patterns in semi-arid regions arise from interactions between plants and environmental factors. This study uses a numerical model to explore how vegetation responds to changes in rainfall and random disturbances. We identify key timescales that influence resilience, showing that ecosystems rely on both stable and unstable states to adapt. These findings offer insights into the resilience mechanisms that help ecosystems maintain stability under environmental stress.
Loïc Sablon, Pierre Maffre, Yves Goddéris, Paul J. Valdes, Justin Gérard, Jarno J. C. Huygh, Anne-Christine Da Silva, and Michel Crucifix
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1696, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an innovative climate modelling framework that combines statistical methods with climate simulations to study Earth's environmental systems. The model captures how orbital changes and carbon dioxide levels influence climate atmospheric dynamics, offering a detailed and efficient way to explore long-term processes. This tool provides new opportunities to investigate Earth's climate history and its implications for future changes.
Victor Couplet, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3081–3129, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present SURFER v3.0, a simple climate model designed to estimate the impact of CO2 and CH4 emissions on global temperatures, sea levels, and ocean pH. We added new carbon cycle processes and calibrated the model to observations and results from more complex models, enabling use over timescales ranging from decades to millions of years. SURFER v3.0 is fast, transparent, and easy to use, making it an ideal tool for policy assessments and suitable for educational purposes.
Justin Gérard, Loïc Sablon, Jarno J. C. Huygh, Anne-Christine Da Silva, Alexandre Pohl, Christian Vérard, and Michel Crucifix
Clim. Past, 21, 239–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-239-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-239-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used cGENIE, a climate model, to explore how changes in continental configuration, CO2 levels, and orbital configuration affected ocean oxygen levels during the Devonian period (419–359 million years ago). Key factors contributing to ocean anoxia were identified, highlighting the influence of continental configurations, atmospheric conditions, and orbital changes. Our findings offer new insights into the causes and prolonged durations of Devonian ocean anoxic events.
Justin Gérard and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 293–306, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-293-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used cGENIE, a climate model, to investigate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slowdown under a warming scenario. We apply a diagnostic that was used in a previous study (Levang and Schmitt, 2020) to separate the temperature from salinity contribution to this slowdown. We find that, in our model, the initial slowdown of the AMOC was driven by temperature and that salinity takes the lead for the termination of the circulation.
Lilian Vanderveken, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 585–599, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In semi-arid regions, hydric stress affects plant growth. In these conditions, vegetation patterns develop and effectively allow for vegetation to persist under low water input. The formation of patterns and the transition between patterns can be studied with small models taking the form of dynamical systems. Our study produces a full map of stable and unstable solutions in a canonical vegetation model and shows how they determine the transitions between different patterns.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Lander Van Tricht and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 17, 4463–4485, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4463-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4463-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled the historical and future evolution of six ice masses in the Tien Shan, Central Asia, with a 3D ice-flow model under the newest climate scenarios. We show that in all scenarios the ice masses retreat significantly but with large differences. It is highlighted that, because the main precipitation occurs in spring and summer, the ice masses respond to climate change with an accelerating retreat. In all scenarios, the total runoff peaks before 2050, with a (drastic) decrease afterwards.
Lander Van Tricht, Chloë Marie Paice, Oleg Rybak, and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 17, 4315–4323, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4315-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4315-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We performed a field campaign to measure the ice thickness of the Grigoriev ice cap (Central Asia). We interpolated the ice thickness data to obtain an ice thickness distribution representing the state of the ice cap in 2021, with a total volume of ca. 0.4 km3. We then compared our results with global ice thickness datasets composed without our local measurements. The main takeaway is that these datasets do not perform well enough yet for ice caps such as the Grigoriev ice cap.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Clim. Past, 19, 1793–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1793-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1793-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Are phenomenological dynamical paleoclimate models physically similar to Nature? We demonstrated that though they may be very accurate in reproducing empirical time series, this is not sufficient to claim physical similarity with Nature until similarity parameters are considered. We suggest that the diagnostics of physical similarity should become a standard procedure before a phenomenological model can be utilized for interpretations of historical records or future predictions.
Lander Van Tricht, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Daniel Farinotti, and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-87, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Detailed 3D models can be applied for well-studied glaciers, whereas simplified approaches are used for regional/global assessments. We conducted a comparison of six Tien Shan glaciers employing different models and investigated the impact of in-situ measurements. Our results reveal that the choice of mass balance and ice flow model as well as calibration have minimal impact on the projected volume. The initial ice thickness exerts the greatest influence on the future remaining ice volume.
Marina Martínez Montero, Michel Crucifix, Victor Couplet, Nuria Brede, and Nicola Botta
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8059–8084, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present SURFER, a lightweight model that links CO2 emissions and geoengineering to ocean acidification and sea level rise from glaciers, ocean thermal expansion and Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The ice sheet module adequately describes the tipping points of both Greenland and Antarctica. SURFER is understandable, fast, accurate up to several thousands of years, capable of emulating results obtained by state of the art models and well suited for policy analyses.
Lander Van Tricht and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 16, 4513–4535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the thermal regime of the Grigoriev ice cap and the Sary-Tor glacier, both located in the inner Tien Shan in Kyrgyzstan. Our findings are important as the ice dynamics can only be understood and modelled precisely if ice temperature is considered correctly in ice flow models. The calibrated parameters of this study can be used in applications with ice flow models for individual ice masses as well as to optimise more general models for large-scale regional simulations.
Jonas Van Breedam, Philippe Huybrechts, and Michel Crucifix
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6373–6401, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheets are an important component of the climate system and interact with the atmosphere through albedo variations and changes in the surface height. On very long timescales, it is impossible to directly couple ice sheet models with climate models and other techniques have to be used. Here we present a novel coupling method between ice sheets and the atmosphere by making use of an emulator to simulate ice sheet–climate interactions for several million years.
Lander Van Tricht, Philippe Huybrechts, Jonas Van Breedam, Alexander Vanhulle, Kristof Van Oost, and Harry Zekollari
The Cryosphere, 15, 4445–4464, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4445-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted innovative research on the use of drones to determine the surface mass balance (SMB) of two glaciers. Considering appropriate spatial scales, we succeeded in determining the SMB in the ablation area with large accuracy. Consequently, we are convinced that our method and the use of drones to monitor the mass balance of a glacier’s ablation area can be an add-on to stake measurements in order to obtain a broader picture of the heterogeneity of the SMB of glaciers.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 63–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate here that a single physical phenomenon, specifically, a naturally changing balance between intensities of temperature advection and diffusion in the viscous ice media, may influence the entire spectrum of the Pleistocene variability from orbital to millennial timescales.
Yoni Verhaegen, Philippe Huybrechts, Oleg Rybak, and Victor V. Popovnin
The Cryosphere, 14, 4039–4061, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical flow model to simulate the behaviour of the Djankuat Glacier, a WGMS reference glacier situated in the North Caucasus (Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, Russian Federation), in response to past, present and future climate conditions (1752–2100 CE). In particular, we adapt a more sophisticated and physically based debris model, which has not been previously applied in time-dependent numerical flow line models, to look at the impact of a debris cover on the glacier’s evolution.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Jonas Van Breedam, Heiko Goelzer, and Philippe Huybrechts
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We made projections of global mean sea-level change during the next 10 000 years for a range in climate forcing scenarios ranging from a peak in carbon dioxide concentrations in the next decades to burning most of the available carbon reserves over the next 2 centuries. We find that global mean sea level will rise between 9 and 37 m, depending on the emission of greenhouse gases. In this study, we investigated the long-term consequence of climate change for sea-level rise.
Cited articles
Abe-Ouchi, A. and Blatter, H.: On the initiation of ice sheets, Ann. Glaciol., 18, 203–207, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0260305500011514, 1993.
Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., Kawamura, K., Raymo, M. E., Okuno, J., Takahashi, K., and Blatter, H.: Insolation-driven 100,000 year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume, Nature, 500, 190–193, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12374, 2013.
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 ∘C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, 1171, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022.
Baatsen, M., van Hinsbergen, D. J. J., von der Heydt, A. S., Dijkstra, H. A., Sluijs, A., Abels, H. A., and Bijl, P. K.: Reconstructing geographical boundary conditions for palaeoclimate modelling during the Cenozoic, Clim. Past, 12, 1635–1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1635-2016, 2016.
Baatsen, M., von der Heydt, A. S., Huber, M., Kliphuis, M. A., Bijl, P. K., Sluijs, A., and Dijkstra, H. A.: The middle to late Eocene greenhouse climate modelled using the CESM 1.0.5, Clim. Past, 16, 2573–2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2573-2020, 2020.
Boers, N. and Rypdal, M.: Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2024192118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024192118, 2021.
Burgard, C., Jourdain, N. C., Reese, R., Jenkins, A., and Mathiot, P.: An assessment of basal melt parameterisations for Antarctic ice shelves, The Cryosphere, 16, 4931–4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, 2022.
Calov, R. and Ganopolski, A.: Multistability and hysteresis in the climate-cryosphere system under orbital forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L21717, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024518, 2005.
Carter, A., Roley, T., R., Hillenbrand, C.-D., and Rittner, M.: Widespread Antarctic glaciation during the Late Eocene, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 458, 49–57, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.10.045, 2017.
Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Bunton, C. B., Essery, R. L. H., Rowntree, P. R., and Smith. J.: The impact of new land surface physics on the GCM simulation of climate and climate sensitivity, Clim. Dynam., 15, 183–203, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050276, 1999.
Crucifix, M., Loutre, M. F., Lambeck, K., and Berger A.: Effect of isostatic rebound on modelled ice volume variations during the last 200 kyr, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 184, 623–633, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(00)00361-7, 2001.
Da, J., Zhang, Y. G., Li, G., Meng, X., and Ji, J.: Low CO2 levels of the entire Pleistocene epoch, Nat. Commun., 10, 4342, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12357-5, 2019.
De Vleeschouwer, D., Da Silva, A. C., Sinnesael, M., Chen, D., Day, J. E., Whalen, M. T., Guo, Z., and Claeys, P.: Timing and pacing of the Late Devonian mass extinction event regulated by eccentricity and obliquity, Nat. Commun., 8, 2268, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02407-1, 2017.
Evangelinos, D., Escutia, C., van de Flierdt, T., Valero, L., Flores, J.-A., Harwood, D. M., Hoem, F. S., Bijl, P., Etourneau, J., Kreissig, K., Nilsson-Kerr, K., Holder, L., López-Quirós, A., and Salabarnada, A.: Absence of a strong, deep-reaching Antarctic Circumpolar Current zonal flow across the Tasmanian gateway during the Oligocene to early Miocene, Global Planet. Change, 208, 103718, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103221, 2022.
Evans, D., Sagoo, N., Renema, W., Cotton, L. J., Müller, W., Todd, J. A., Saraswati, P. K., Stassen, P., Ziegler, M., Pearson, P. N., Valdes, P. J., and Affek, H. P.: Eocene green- house climate revealed by coupled clumped isotope-Mg
Garbe, J., Albrecht, T., Levermann, A., Donges, J. F., and Winkelmann, R.: The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Nature, 585, 538–544, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5, 2020.
Gandy, N., Astfalck, L. C., Gregoire, L. J., Ivanovic, R. F., Patterson, V. L., Sheriff-Tadano, S., Smith, R. S., Williamson, D., and Rigby, R.: De-Tuning Albedo Parameters in a Coupled Climate Ice Sheet Model to Simulate the North American Ice Sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 128, e2023JF007250, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JF007250, 2023.
Gasson, E., Lunt, D. J., DeConto, R., Goldner, A., Heinemann, M., Huber, M., LeGrande, A. N., Pollard, D., Sagoo, N., Siddall, M., Winguth, A., and Valdes, P. J.: Uncertainties in the modelled CO2 threshold for Antarctic glaciation, Clim. Past, 10, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-451-2014, 2014.
Herrington, A. R. and Poulsen, C. J.: Terminating the Last Interglacial: The Role of Ice Sheet-Climate Feedbacks in a GCM Asynchronously Coupled to an Ice Sheet Model, J. Climate, 25, 1871–1882, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00218.1, 2011.
Horton, D. E., Poulsen, C. J., Montañez, I. P., and DiMichele, W. A.: Eccentricity-paced late Paleozoic climate change, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 331–332, 150–161, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2012.03.014, 2012.
Houben, A. J. P., Bijl, P. K., Sluijs, A., Schouten, S., and Brinkhuis, H.: Late Eocene Southern Ocean cooling and invigoration of circulation preconditioned Antarctica for full-scale glaciation, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 20, 2214–2234, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GC008182, 2019.
Huybrechts, P.: Formation and disintegration of the Antarctic ice sheet, Ann. Glaciol., 20, 336–340, https://doi.org/10.3189/1994AoG20-1-336-340, 1994.
Huybrechts, P.: Sea-level changes at the LGM from ice-dynamic reconstructions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets during the glacial cycles, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 203–231, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00082-8, 2002.
Huybrechts, P. and De Wolde, J.: The Dynamic Response of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to Multiple-Century Climatic Warming, J. Climate, 12, 2169–2188, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2169:tdrotg>2.0.co;2, 1999.
Janssens, I. and Huybrechts, P.: The treatment of meltwater retention in mass-balance parameterizations of the Greenland ice sheet, Ann. Glaciol, 31, 133–140, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756400781819941, 2000.
Kennett, J. P.: Cenozoic evolution of Antarctic glaciation, the circum-Antarctic Ocean, and their impact on global paleoceanography, J. Geophys. Res., 82, 3843–3860, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC082i027p03843, 1977.
Kingslake, J., Scherer, R. P., Albrecht, T., Coenen, J., Powell, R. D., Reese, R., Stansell, N. D., Tulaczyk, S., Wearing, M. G., and Whitehouse, P. L.: Extensive retreat and re-advance of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Holocene, Nature, 558, 430–434, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0208-x, 2018.
Klose, A. K., Karle, V., Winkelmann, R., and Donges, J. F.: Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate, R. Soc. Open Sci., 7, 200599, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.200599, 2020.
Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Adhikari, S., Ivins, E., Caron, L., Morlighem, M., and Schlegel, N.: Slowdown in Antarctic mass loss from Solid Earth and sea-level feedbacks, Science, 364, eaav7908, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aav7908, 2019.
Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A. C. M., and Levrard, B.: A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth, Astron. Astrophys., 428, 261–285, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:20041335, 2004.
Laskar, J., Fienga, A., Gastineau, M., and Manche, H.: La2010: a new orbital solution for the long-term motion of the Earth, Astron. Astrophys., 532, A89, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201116836, 2011.
Le Meur, E. and Huybrechts, P.: A comparison of different ways of dealing with isostasy: examples from modelling the Antarctic ice sheet during the last glacial cycle, Ann. Glaciol., 23, 309–317, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0260305500013586, 1996.
Lenton, T., Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rahmstorf, S., Richardson, K., Steffen, W., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Climate tipping points – too risky to bet against, Nature, 575, 592–595, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0, 2019.
Letréguilly, A., Huybrechts, P., and Reeh, N.: Steady-state characteristics of the Greenland ice sheet under different climates, J. Glaciol., 37, 149–157, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000042908, 1991.
Levermann, A. and Winkelmann, R.: A simple equation for the melt elevation feedback of ice sheets, The Cryosphere, 10, 1799–1807, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1799-2016, 2016.
Li, Q., Marshall, J., Rye, C. D., Romanou, A., Rind, D., and Kelley, M.: Global Climate Impacts of Greenland and Antarctic Meltwater: A Comparative Study, J. Climate, 36, 3571–3590, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0433.1, 2023.
Mikolajewicz, U., Vizcaíno, M., Jungclaus, J., and Schurgers, G.: Effect of ice sheet interactions in anthropogenic climate change simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L18706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031173, 2007.
Mitchell, R. N., Gernon, T. M., Cox, G. M., Nordsvan, A. R., Kirscher, U., Xuan, C., Liu, Y., and He, X.: Orbital forcing of ice sheets during snowball Earth, Nat. Commun., 12, 4187, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24439-4, 2021.
Oerlemans, J.: On glacial inception and orography, Quatern. Int., 95–96, 5–10, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1040-6182(02)00022-8, 2002.
Pagani, M., Huber, M., Zhonghui, L., Bohaty, S. M., Henderiks, J., Sijp, W., Krishnan, S., and DeConto, R. M.: The Role of Carbon Dioxide During the Onset of Antarctic Glaciation, Science, 334, 1261–1264, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1203909, 2011.
Pollard, D. and DeConto, R. M.: Hysteresis in Cenozoic Antarctic ice-sheet variations, Global Planet. Change, 45, 21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.09.011, 2005.
Pope, V. D., Gallani, M. L., Rowntree, P. R., and Stratton, R. A.: The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3, Clim. Dynam., 16, 123–146, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050009, 2000.
Ridley, J. K., Huybrechts, P., and Gregory, J. M.: Elimination of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a High CO2 Climate, J. Climate, 18, 3409–3427, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3482.1, 2005.
Ridley, J., Gregory, J. M., Huybrechts, P., and Lowe, J.: Thresholds for irreversible decline of the Greenland ice sheet, Clim. Dynam, 35, 1065–1073, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0646-0, 2010.
Robinson, A., Calov, R., and Ganopolski, A.: Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 429–432, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1449, 2012.
Rosier, S. H. R., Reese, R., Donges, J. F., De Rydt, J., Gudmundsson, G. H., and Winkelmann, R.: The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 15, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, 2021.
Ruddiman, W. F.: Ice-driven CO2 feedback on ice volume, Clim. Past, 2, 43–55, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2-43-2006, 2006.
Scher, H. D., Bohaty, S. M., Smith, B. W., and Munn, G. H.: Isotopic interrogation of a suspected late Eocene glaciation, Paleoceanography, 29, 628–644, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014PA002648, 2014.
Van Breedam, J.: Hysteresis_earlyCenozoic_icesheets, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10359835, 2023.
Van Breedam, J., Goelzer, H., and Huybrechts, P.: Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, 2020.
Van Breedam, J., Huybrechts, P., and Crucifix, M.: A Gaussian process emulator for simulating ice sheet–climate interactions on a multi-million-year timescale: CLISEMv1.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6373–6401, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021, 2021a.
Van Breedam, J., Huybrechts, P., and Crucifix, M.: CLimate Ice Sheet EMulator v1.0 (CLISEMv1.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5245156, 2021b.
Van Breedam, J., Huybrechts, P., and Crucifix, M.: Modelling evidence for late Eocene Antarctic glaciations, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 586, 117532, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2022.117532, 2022.
Van Hinsbergen, D. J. J., de Groot, L. V., van Schaik, S. J., Spakman, W., Bijl, P. K., Sluijs, A., Langereis, C. G., and Brinkhuis, H.: A Paleolatitude Calculator for Paleoclimate Studies, PLoS ONE, 10, e0126946, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0126946, 2015.
Williams, K. D., Senior C. A., and Mitchell, J. F. B.: Transient Climate Change in the Hadley Centre Models: The Role of Physical Processes, J. Climate, 14, 2659–2674, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2659:TCCITH>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Wilson, D. S., Jamieson, S. R., Barrett, P. J., Leitchenkov, G., Gohl, K., and Larter, D.: Antarctic topography at the Eocene Oligocene boundary, Paleogeogr. Paleocl., 335–336, 24–34, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.05.028, 2012.
Short summary
We investigated the different boundary conditions to allow ice sheet growth and ice sheet decline of the Antarctic ice sheet when it appeared ∼38–34 Myr ago. The thresholds for ice sheet growth and decline differ because of the different climatological conditions above an ice sheet (higher elevation and higher albedo) compared to a bare topography. We found that the ice–albedo feedback and the isostasy feedback respectively ease and delay the transition from a deglacial to glacial state.
We investigated the different boundary conditions to allow ice sheet growth and ice sheet...
