Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Nov 2022
Research article |
| 24 Nov 2022
| 24 Nov 2022
Internal climate variability and spatial temperature correlations during the past 2000 years
Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Hugues Goosse
Earth and Life Institute (ELI), UCLouvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Didier M. Roche
Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
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Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 18, 2093–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, 2022
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Nicolas Ghilain, Stéphane Vannitsem, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Lesley De Cruz, and Wenguang Wei
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1901–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, 2022
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Koffi Worou, Hugues Goosse, Thierry Fichefet, and Fred Kucharski
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Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
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Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Christophe Dumas, Nathaëlle Bouttes, and Fanny Lhardy
Clim. Past, 17, 2179–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, 2021
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Fanny Lhardy, Nathaëlle Bouttes, Didier M. Roche, Xavier Crosta, Claire Waelbroeck, and Didier Paillard
Clim. Past, 17, 1139–1159, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1139-2021, 2021
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Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, Marie G. P. Cavitte, and Liping Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 111–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, 2021
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Polynyas are ice-free oceanic areas within the sea ice pack. Small polynyas are regularly observed in the Southern Ocean, but large open-ocean polynyas have been rare over the past decades. Using records from available ice cores in Antarctica, we reconstruct past polynya activity and confirm that those events have also been rare over the past centuries, but the information provided by existing data is not sufficient to precisely characterize the timing of past polynya opening.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 4083–4102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, 2020
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Surface mass balance (SMB) and surface air temperature (SAT) are correlated at the regional scale for most of Antarctica, SMB and δ18O. Areas with low/no correlation are where wind processes (foehn, katabatic wind warming, and erosion) are sufficiently active to overwhelm the synoptic-scale snow accumulation. Measured in ice cores, the link between SMB, SAT, and δ18O is much weaker. Random noise can be removed by core record averaging but local processes perturb the correlation systematically.
David Parkes and Hugues Goosse
The Cryosphere, 14, 3135–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, 2020
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Direct records of glacier changes rarely go back more than the last 100 years and are few and far between. We used a sophisticated glacier model to simulate glacier length changes over the last 1000 years for those glaciers that we do have long-term records of, to determine whether the model can run in a stable, realistic way over a long timescale, reproducing recent observed trends. We find that post-industrial changes are larger than other changes in this time period driven by recent warming.
Zhiqiang Lyu, Anais J. Orsi, and Hugues Goosse
Clim. Past, 16, 1411–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020, 2020
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This paper uses two different ways to perform model–data comparisons for the borehole temperature in Antarctica. The results suggest most models generally reproduce the long-term cooling in West Antarctica from 1000 to 1600 CE and the recent 50 years of warming in West Antarctica and Antarctic Peninsula. However, The 19th-century cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula (−0.94 °C) is not reproduced by any of the models, which tend to show warming instead.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Hugues Goosse, Joël Guiot, Fabio Gennaretti, Etienne Boucher, Frédéric André, and Mathieu Jonard
Clim. Past, 16, 1043–1059, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1043-2020, 2020
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Tree rings are the main data source for climate reconstructions over the last millennium. Statistical tree-growth models have limitations that process-based models could overcome. Here, we investigate the possibility of using a process-based ecophysiological model (MAIDEN) as a complex proxy system model for palaeoclimate applications. We show its ability to simulate tree-growth index time series that can fit robustly tree-ring width observations under certain conditions.
Brett Metcalfe, Bryan C. Lougheed, Claire Waelbroeck, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 16, 885–910, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-885-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-885-2020, 2020
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Planktonic foraminifera construct a shell that, post mortem, settles to the seafloor, prior to collection by Palaeoclimatologists for use as proxies. Such organisms in life are sensitive to the ambient conditions (e.g. temperature, salinity), which therefore means our proxies maybe skewed toward the ecology of organisms. Using a proxy system model, Foraminifera as Modelled Entities (FAME), we assess the potential of extracting ENSO signal from tropical Pacific planktonic foraminifera.
Lise Missiaen, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier M. Roche, Jean-Claude Dutay, Aurélien Quiquet, Claire Waelbroeck, Sylvain Pichat, and Jean-Yves Peterschmitt
Clim. Past, 16, 867–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-867-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-867-2020, 2020
Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, 2020
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Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
Louis de Wergifosse, Frédéric André, Nicolas Beudez, François de Coligny, Hugues Goosse, François Jonard, Quentin Ponette, Hugues Titeux, Caroline Vincke, and Mathieu Jonard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1459–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, 2020
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Given their key role in the simulation of climate impacts on tree growth, phenological and water balance processes must be integrated in models simulating forest dynamics under a changing environment. Here, we describe these processes integrated in HETEROFOR, a model accounting simultaneously for the functional, structural and spatial complexity to explore the forest response to forestry practices. The model evaluation using phenological and soil water content observations is quite promising.
Pepijn Bakker, Irina Rogozhina, Ute Merkel, and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 16, 371–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-371-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-371-2020, 2020
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Northeastern Siberia is currently known for its harsh cold climate, but remarkably it did not experience large-scale glaciation during the last ice age. We show that the region is also exceptional in climate models. As a result of subtle changes in model setup, climate models show a strong divergence in simulated glacial summer temperatures that is ultimately driven by changes in the circumpolar atmospheric stationary wave pattern and associated northward heat transport to northeastern Siberia.
François Klein, Nerilie J. Abram, Mark A. J. Curran, Hugues Goosse, Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Andrew Moy, Raphael Neukom, Anaïs Orsi, Jesper Sjolte, Nathan Steiger, Barbara Stenni, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019
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Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope records in ice cores in several studies. However, the link between both variables is complex. Here, we investigate the extent to which this affects the robustness of temperature reconstructions using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments. We show that the reconstruction skill is limited, especially at the regional scale, due to a weak and nonstationary covariance between δ18O and temperature.
Chris S. M. Turney, Helen V. McGregor, Pierre Francus, Nerilie Abram, Michael N. Evans, Hugues Goosse, Lucien von Gunten, Darrell Kaufman, Hans Linderholm, Marie-France Loutre, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 15, 611–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, 2019
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This PAGES (Past Global Changes) 2k (climate of the past 2000 years working group) special issue of Climate of the Past brings together the latest understanding of regional change and impacts from PAGES 2k groups across a range of proxies and regions. The special issue has emerged from a need to determine the magnitude and rate of change of regional and global climate beyond the timescales accessible within the observational record.
Aurélien Quiquet, Christophe Dumas, Catherine Ritz, Vincent Peyaud, and Didier M. Roche
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5003–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5003-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5003-2018, 2018
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This paper presents the GRISLI (Grenoble ice sheet and land ice) model in its newest revision. We present the recent model improvements from its original version (Ritz et al., 2001), together with a discussion of the model performance in reproducing the present-day Antarctic ice sheet geometry and the grounding line advances and retreats during the last 400 000 years. We show that GRISLI is a computationally cheap model, able to reproduce the large-scale behaviour of ice sheets.
Didier M. Roche, Claire Waelbroeck, Brett Metcalfe, and Thibaut Caley
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3587–3603, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3587-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3587-2018, 2018
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The oxygen-18 signal recorded in fossil planktonic foraminifers has been used for over 50 years in many geoscience applications. However, different planktonic foraminifer species from the same sediment core generally yield distinct oxygen-18 signals, as a consequence of their specific living habitat in the water column and along the year. To explicitly take into account this variability for five common planktonic species, we developed the portable module FAME (Foraminifers As Modeled Entities).
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
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Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
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The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier Swingedouw, Didier M. Roche, Maria F. Sanchez-Goni, and Xavier Crosta
Clim. Past, 14, 239–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-239-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-239-2018, 2018
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Atmospheric CO2 is key for climate change. CO2 is lower during the oldest warm period of the last million years, the interglacials, than during the most recent ones (since 430 000 years ago). This difference has not been explained yet, but could be due to changes of ocean circulation. We test this hypothesis and the role of vegetation and ice sheets using an intermediate complexity model. We show that only small changes of CO2 can be obtained, underlying missing feedbacks or mechanisms.
Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Christophe Dumas, and Didier Paillard
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 453–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-453-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-453-2018, 2018
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Earth system models of intermediate complexity generally have a simplified model physics and a coarse model resolution. In this work we present the inclusion of an online dynamical downscaling of temperature and precipitation in such a model. This downscaling explicitly takes into account sub-grid topography. With this new model functionality we are able to simulate temperature and precipitation on a 40 km grid for the whole Northern Hemisphere from the native model resolution.
Feng Shi, Sen Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, Hugues Goosse, and Qiuzhen Yin
Clim. Past, 13, 1919–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, 2017
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We reconstructed the multi-proxy precipitation field for China over the past 500 years, which includes three leading modes (a monopole, a dipole, and a triple) of precipitation variability. The dipole mode may be controlled by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability. Such reconstruction is an essential source of information to document the climate variability over decadal to centennial timescales and can be used to assess the ability of climate models to simulate past climate change.
Kristina Seftigen, Hugues Goosse, Francois Klein, and Deliang Chen
Clim. Past, 13, 1831–1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, 2017
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Comparisons of proxy data to GCM-simulated hydroclimate are still limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterized. In this study, we bring together tree-ring paleoclimate evidence and CMIP5–PMIP3 model simulations of the last millennium hydroclimate variability across Scandinavia. We explore the consistency between the datasets and the role of external forcing versus internal variability in driving the hydroclimate changes regionally.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
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Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Chris S.~M. Turney, Andrew Klekociuk, Christopher J. Fogwill, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Claire L. Parkinson, Gilbert Compo, Matthew Lazzara, Linda Keller, Rob Allan, Jonathan G. Palmer, Graeme Clark, and Ezequiel Marzinelli
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We demonstrate that a mid-twentieth century decrease in geopotential height in the southwest Pacific marks a Rossby wave response to equatorial Pacific warming, leading to enhanced easterly airflow off George V Land. Our results suggest that in contrast to ozone hole-driven changes in the Amundsen Sea, the 1979–2015 increase in sea ice extent off George V Land may be in response to reduced northward Ekman drift and enhanced (near-coast) production as a consequence of low latitude forcing.
Chris S. M. Turney, Christopher J. Fogwill, Jonathan G. Palmer, Erik van Sebille, Zoë Thomas, Matt McGlone, Sarah Richardson, Janet M. Wilmshurst, Pavla Fenwick, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Kerry-Jayne Wilson, Lionel Carter, Mathew Lipson, Richard T. Jones, Melanie Harsch, Graeme Clark, Ezequiel Marzinelli, Tracey Rogers, Eleanor Rainsley, Laura Ciasto, Stephanie Waterman, Elizabeth R. Thomas, and Martin Visbeck
Clim. Past, 13, 231–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017, 2017
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The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in global climate but suffers from a dearth of observational data. As the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013–2014 we have developed the first annually resolved temperature record using trees from subantarctic southwest Pacific (52–54˚S) to extend the climate record back to 1870. With modelling we show today's high climate variability became established in the ~1940s and likely driven by a Rossby wave response originating from the tropical Pacific.
Pierre Burckel, Claire Waelbroeck, Yiming Luo, Didier M. Roche, Sylvain Pichat, Samuel L. Jaccard, Jeanne Gherardi, Aline Govin, Jörg Lippold, and François Thil
Clim. Past, 12, 2061–2075, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2061-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2061-2016, 2016
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In this paper, we compare new and published Atlantic sedimentary Pa/Th data with Pa/Th simulated using stream functions generated under various climatic conditions. We show that during Greenland interstadials of the 20–50 ka period, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation was very different from that of the Holocene. Moreover, southern-sourced waters dominated the Atlantic during Heinrich stadial 2, a slow northern-sourced water mass flowing above 2500 m in the North Atlantic.
Amaelle Landais, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Emilie Capron, Petra M. Langebroek, Pepijn Bakker, Emma J. Stone, Niklaus Merz, Christoph C. Raible, Hubertus Fischer, Anaïs Orsi, Frédéric Prié, Bo Vinther, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
Clim. Past, 12, 1933–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, 2016
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The last lnterglacial (LIG; 116 000 to 129 000 years before present) surface temperature at the upstream Greenland NEEM deposition site is estimated to be warmer by +7 to +11 °C compared to the preindustrial period. We show that under such warm temperatures, melting of snow probably led to a significant surface melting. There is a paradox between the extent of the Greenland ice sheet during the LIG and the strong warming during this period that models cannot solve.
Timothé Bolliet, Patrick Brockmann, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Franck Bassinot, Valérie Daux, Dominique Genty, Amaelle Landais, Marlène Lavrieux, Elisabeth Michel, Pablo Ortega, Camille Risi, Didier M. Roche, Françoise Vimeux, and Claire Waelbroeck
Clim. Past, 12, 1693–1719, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1693-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1693-2016, 2016
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This paper presents a new database of past climate proxies which aims to facilitate the distribution of data by using a user-friendly interface. Available data from the last 40 years are often fragmented, with lots of different formats, and online libraries are sometimes nonintuitive. We thus built a new dynamic web portal for data browsing, visualizing, and batch downloading of hundreds of datasets presenting a homogeneous format.
Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, Masa Kageyama, Didier M. Roche, Paul J. Valdes, Andrea Burke, Rosemarie Drummond, W. Richard Peltier, and Lev Tarasov
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2563-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2563-2016, 2016
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This manuscript presents the experiment design for the PMIP4 Last Deglaciation Core experiment: a transient simulation of the last deglaciation, 21–9 ka. Specified model boundary conditions include time-varying orbital parameters, greenhouse gases, ice sheets, ice meltwater fluxes and other geographical changes (provided for 26–0 ka). The context of the experiment and the choices for the boundary conditions are explained, along with the future direction of the working group.
François Klein, Hugues Goosse, Nicholas E. Graham, and Dirk Verschuren
Clim. Past, 12, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, 2016
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This paper analyses global climate model simulations of long-term East African hydroclimate changes relative to proxy-based reconstructions over the last millennium. No common signal is found between model results and reconstructions as well as among the model time series, which suggests that simulated hydroclimate is mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing.
Pepijn Bakker and Andreas Schmittner
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-79, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We present an AMOC-emulator framework consisting of a box model and a statistical tuning methodology that allows us to mimic the behaviour of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in any complex global climate model. The simplicity of the AMOC-emulator allows us to run large numbers of simulations, test the importance of a range of uncertainties and thus provide probabilistic AMOC projections driven by future climate change including the partial melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Marianne Bügelmayer-Blaschek, Didier M. Roche, Hans Renssen, and Claire Waelbroeck
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-31, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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Using the global isotope-enabled climate – iceberg model iLOVECLIM we performed three experiments to investigate the mechanisms behind the simulated δ18Ocalcite pattern applying a Heinrich event like iceberg forcing. Our model results display two main patterns in the δ18Ocalcite signal. First, we find regions that display almost no response in δ18Ocalcite and second, regions where the δ18Ocalcite pattern closely follows the δ18Oseawater signal.
M. Bügelmayer, D. M. Roche, and H. Renssen
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2139–2151, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2139-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2139-2015, 2015
N. Bouttes, D. M. Roche, V. Mariotti, and L. Bopp
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1563–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1563-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1563-2015, 2015
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We describe the development of a relatively simple climate model to include a model of the carbon cycle in the ocean. The carbon cycle consists of the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere, land vegetation and ocean. In the ocean, carbon exists in organic form, such as plankton which grows and dies, and inorganic forms, such as dissolved CO2. With this we will be able to explore long-standing questions such as why the atmospheric CO2 has changed over time during the last million years.
D. C. Kitover, R. van Balen, D. M. Roche, J. Vandenberghe, and H. Renssen
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1445–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1445-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1445-2015, 2015
M. Bügelmayer, D. M. Roche, and H. Renssen
The Cryosphere, 9, 821–835, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-821-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-821-2015, 2015
V. Zunz and H. Goosse
The Cryosphere, 9, 541–556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, 2015
K. A. Crichton, D. M. Roche, G. Krinner, and J. Chappellaz
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 3111–3134, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-3111-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-3111-2014, 2014
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Permafrost is ground that remains frozen for two or more consecutive years. An estimated 50% of the global below-ground organic carbon is stored in soils of the permafrost zone. This study presents the development and validation of a simplified permafrost-carbon mechanism for the CLIMBER-2 model. Our model development allows, for the first time, the study of the role of permafrost soils in the global carbon cycle for long timescales and for coupled palaeoclimate Earth system modelling studies.
T. Caley, D. M. Roche, C. Waelbroeck, and E. Michel
Clim. Past, 10, 1939–1955, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1939-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1939-2014, 2014
P. Bakker and H. Renssen
Clim. Past, 10, 1633–1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1633-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1633-2014, 2014
M. F. Loutre, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, P. Huybrechts, H. Goelzer, and E. Capron
Clim. Past, 10, 1541–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, 2014
D. M. Roche, C. Dumas, M. Bügelmayer, S. Charbit, and C. Ritz
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1377–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1377-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1377-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
H. Goosse and V. Zunz
The Cryosphere, 8, 453–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, 2014
P. Beghin, S. Charbit, C. Dumas, M. Kageyama, D. M. Roche, and C. Ritz
Clim. Past, 10, 345–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-345-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-345-2014, 2014
A. Mairesse, H. Goosse, P. Mathiot, H. Wanner, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, 2013
D. M. Roche
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1481–1491, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1481-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1481-2013, 2013
D. M. Roche and T. Caley
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1493–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1493-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1493-2013, 2013
T. Caley and D. M. Roche
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1505–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1505-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1505-2013, 2013
S. Dubinkina and H. Goosse
Clim. Past, 9, 1141–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
S. Charbit, C. Dumas, M. Kageyama, D. M. Roche, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 7, 681–698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-681-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-681-2013, 2013
C. Morrill, A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 9, 955–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, 2013
M. Kageyama, U. Merkel, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Prange, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Lohmann, R. Ohgaito, D. M. Roche, J. Singarayer, D. Swingedouw, and X Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, 2013
P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, 2013
V. Zunz, H. Goosse, and F. Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 7, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, 2013
P. Bakker, E. J. Stone, S. Charbit, M. Gröger, U. Krebs-Kanzow, S. P. Ritz, V. Varma, V. Khon, D. J. Lunt, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Prange, H. Renssen, B. Schneider, and M. Schulz
Clim. Past, 9, 605–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, 2013
J. Zumaque, F. Eynaud, S. Zaragosi, F. Marret, K. M. Matsuzaki, C. Kissel, D. M. Roche, B. Malaizé, E. Michel, I. Billy, T. Richter, and E. Palis
Clim. Past, 8, 1997–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1997-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1997-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Holocene
A global Data Assimilation of Moisture Patterns from 21 000–0 BP (DAMP-21ka) using lake level proxy records
New probabilistic methods for quantitative climate reconstructions applied to palynological data from Lake Kinneret
Mid-Holocene climate change over China: model–data discrepancy
The 4.2 ka BP event in the Levant
Climate change and ecosystems dynamics over the last 6000 years in the Middle Atlas, Morocco
The evolution of sub-monsoon systems in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during the Holocene– comparison of different transient climate model simulations
Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation
Investigating the consistency between proxy-based reconstructions and climate models using data assimilation: a mid-Holocene case study
Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene
Proxy benchmarks for intercomparison of 8.2 ka simulations
Influence of orbital forcing and solar activity on water isotopes in precipitation during the mid- and late Holocene
Simulated oxygen isotopes in cave drip water and speleothem calcite in European caves
Mechanisms for European summer temperature response to solar forcing over the last millennium
Holocene land-cover reconstructions for studies on land cover-climate feedbacks
On the importance of paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change
Christopher L. Hancock, Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Sylvia G. Dee, and Ruza F. Ivanovic
Clim. Past, 20, 2663–2684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2663-2024, 2024
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We reconstruct global hydroclimate anomalies for the past 21 000 years using a data assimilation methodology blending observations recorded in lake sediments with the climate dynamics simulated by climate models. The reconstruction resolves data–model disagreement in east Africa and North America, and we find that changing global temperatures and associated circulation patterns, as well as orbital forcing, are the dominant controls on global precipitation over this interval.
Timon Netzel, Andrea Miebach, Thomas Litt, and Andreas Hense
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1790, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1790, 2023
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New probabilistic methods for local quantitative palaeoclimate reconstructions are presented in a Bayesian framework and applied to plant proxy data from Lake Kinneret. We use recent climate data and arboreal pollen from the sediment of this lake as predefined boundary conditions. The result shows a climate reconstruction of the mean December–February temperature and annual precipitation with the corresponding uncertainty ranges during the Holocene in this region.
Yating Lin, Gilles Ramstein, Haibin Wu, Raj Rani, Pascale Braconnot, Masa Kageyama, Qin Li, Yunli Luo, Ran Zhang, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past, 15, 1223–1249, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1223-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1223-2019, 2019
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The mid-Holocene has been an excellent target for comparing models and data. This work shows that, over China, all the ocean–atmosphere general circulation models involved in PMIP3 show a very large discrepancy with pollen data reconstruction when comparing annual and seasonal temperature. It demonstrates that to reconcile models and data and to capture the signature of seasonal thermal response, it is necessary to integrate non-linear processes, particularly those related to vegetation changes.
David Kaniewski, Nick Marriner, Rachid Cheddadi, Joël Guiot, and Elise Van Campo
Clim. Past, 14, 1529–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1529-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1529-2018, 2018
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Studies have long suggested that a protracted drought phase, termed the 4.2 ka BP event, directly impacted subsistence systems (dry farming agro-production, pastoral nomadism, and fishing) and outlying nomad habitats, forcing rain-fed cereal agriculturalists into habitat-tracking when agro-innovations were not available. Here, we focus on this crucial period to examine whether drought was active in the eastern Mediterranean Old World, especially in the Levant.
Majda Nourelbait, Ali Rhoujjati, Abdelfattah Benkaddour, Matthieu Carré, Frederique Eynaud, Philippe Martinez, and Rachid Cheddadi
Clim. Past, 12, 1029–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1029-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1029-2016, 2016
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The present study is related the climate changes and their environmental impacts during the last 6 ky from a fossil record collected in the Middle Atlas, Morocco. We used the reconstruction of three climate variables and geo-chemical elements to evaluate the relationships between all the environmental variables. In summary, this present study confirms the overall climate stability over the last 6 ky and highlights the presence of a short and abrupt climate event at about 5.2 ka cal BP.
A. Dallmeyer, M. Claussen, N. Fischer, K. Haberkorn, S. Wagner, M. Pfeiffer, L. Jin, V. Khon, Y. Wang, and U. Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 11, 305–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-305-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-305-2015, 2015
G. Strandberg, E. Kjellström, A. Poska, S. Wagner, M.-J. Gaillard, A.-K. Trondman, A. Mauri, B. A. S. Davis, J. O. Kaplan, H. J. B. Birks, A. E. Bjune, R. Fyfe, T. Giesecke, L. Kalnina, M. Kangur, W. O. van der Knaap, U. Kokfelt, P. Kuneš, M. Lata\l owa, L. Marquer, F. Mazier, A. B. Nielsen, B. Smith, H. Seppä, and S. Sugita
Clim. Past, 10, 661–680, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, 2014
A. Mairesse, H. Goosse, P. Mathiot, H. Wanner, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, 2013
J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 9, 811–823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-811-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-811-2013, 2013
C. Morrill, D. M. Anderson, B. A. Bauer, R. Buckner, E. P. Gille, W. S. Gross, M. Hartman, and A. Shah
Clim. Past, 9, 423–432, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-423-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-423-2013, 2013
S. Dietrich, M. Werner, T. Spangehl, and G. Lohmann
Clim. Past, 9, 13–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, 2013
A. Wackerbarth, P. M. Langebroek, M. Werner, G. Lohmann, S. Riechelmann, A. Borsato, and A. Mangini
Clim. Past, 8, 1781–1799, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1781-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1781-2012, 2012
D. Swingedouw, L. Terray, J. Servonnat, and J. Guiot
Clim. Past, 8, 1487–1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1487-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1487-2012, 2012
M.-J. Gaillard, S. Sugita, F. Mazier, A.-K. Trondman, A. Broström, T. Hickler, J. O. Kaplan, E. Kjellström, U. Kokfelt, P. Kuneš, C. Lemmen, P. Miller, J. Olofsson, A. Poska, M. Rundgren, B. Smith, G. Strandberg, R. Fyfe, A. B. Nielsen, T. Alenius, L. Balakauskas, L. Barnekow, H. J. B. Birks, A. Bjune, L. Björkman, T. Giesecke, K. Hjelle, L. Kalnina, M. Kangur, W. O. van der Knaap, T. Koff, P. Lagerås, M. Latałowa, M. Leydet, J. Lechterbeck, M. Lindbladh, B. Odgaard, S. Peglar, U. Segerström, H. von Stedingk, and H. Seppä
Clim. Past, 6, 483–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-483-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-483-2010, 2010
J. C. Hargreaves and J. D. Annan
Clim. Past, 5, 803–814, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-803-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-803-2009, 2009
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Short summary
Natural climate variability plays an important role in the discussion of past and future climate change. Here we study centennial temperature variability and the role of large-scale ocean circulation variability using different climate models, geological reconstructions and temperature observations. Unfortunately, uncertainties in models and geological reconstructions are such that more research is needed before we can describe the characteristics of natural centennial temperature variability.
Natural climate variability plays an important role in the discussion of past and future climate...
