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Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-90
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-90
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  29 Sep 2016

29 Sep 2016

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Climate of the Past (CP). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.

Mid-winter (DJF) temperature reconstruction in Jerusalem since 1750 with some regional implications

Assaf Hochman1,2,5, Hadas Saaroni2, Miryam Bar-Matthews3, Baruch Ziv4, and Pinhas Alpert1 Assaf Hochman et al.
  • 1Department of Earth Sciences, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel
  • 2Department of Geography and the Human Environment, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel
  • 3Geological Survey of Israel, Jerusalem, Israel
  • 4Department of Natural Sciences, the Open University of Israel, Ra'nana, Israel
  • 5Porter School of Environmental Studies, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel

Abstract. This work presents a statistical reconstruction of average mid-winter (DJF) temperature in Jerusalem since 1750. It is a first comprehensive attempt to reconstruct the temperature in Jerusalem, as a good representation of the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) climate. This representativeness is verified here. The data has been reconstructed by using a statistical model based on Principal Component Regression (PCR), using both instrumental data and high temporal resolution records of proxy data, including tree ring chronologies from Jordan, and records of DJF precipitation and Sea Level Pressure from central and Western Europe. A split validation procedure has resulted in a 0.73 correlation between observed and reconstructed temperature. The warming trend of last decades is well noted in the reconstruction and is in line with other studies. Winters which were cold/warm were historically documented as wet/dry, respectively, consistent with earlier studies pointing a strong relationship between Jerusalem temperatures and precipitation. It is shown here for the first time that the 'First Aliyah' (immigration) to Israel during 1882-1904 initiated during favouring climate conditions (cool and wet) to establish an agricultural community in the region. These conditions were found to be exceptional compared to other periods since 1750.

Assaf Hochman et al.

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Assaf Hochman et al.

Assaf Hochman et al.

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