This preprint was under review for the journal CP but the revision was not accepted.
Technical Note: Calculating state dependent equilibrium climate sensitivity from palaeodata
Peter Köhler1,Lennert B. Stap2,Anna S. von der Heydt2,Bas de Boer3,and Roderik S. W. van de Wal2Peter Köhler et al. Peter Köhler1,Lennert B. Stap2,Anna S. von der Heydt2,Bas de Boer3,and Roderik S. W. van de Wal2
Received: 22 Feb 2016 – Accepted for review: 11 Mar 2016 – Discussion started: 15 Mar 2016
Abstract. The evidence from both data and models indicate that specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S[X] – the global annual mean surface temperature change (∆Tg) as a response to a change in radiative forcing X (∆R[X]) – is state dependent. Such a state dependency implies that the best fit in the scatter plot of ∆Tg versus ∆R[X] is not a linear regression, but for instance a higher order polynomial. While for the conventional linear case the slope (gradient) of the regression is correctly interpreted as the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S[X], the interpretation is not straightforward in the non-linear case. We here elaborate how such a state dependent scatter plot needs to be interpreted, and provide a theoretical understanding how to calculate S[X] in the non-linear case.
Evidence indicate that specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global annual mean surface temperature change as a response to a change in radiative forcing, is state dependent. We here show that the interpretation of data in the state-dependent case is not straightforward. We analyse the differences of a point-wise approach and one based on a piece-wise linear analysis, combine both, compare with potential model results and apply the theoretical concepts to data of the last 800 kyr.
Evidence indicate that specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global annual mean surface...
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