the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
On reconstruction of time series in climatology
Abstract. The approach to time series reconstruction in climatology based upon cross-correlation coefficients and regression equations is mathematically incorrect because it ignores the dependence of time series upon their past. The proper method described here for the bivariate case requires the autoregressive time- and frequency domains modeling of the time series which contains simultaneous observations of both scalar series with subsequent application of the model to restore the shorter one into the past. The method presents further development of previous efforts taken by a number of authors starting from A. Douglass who introduced some concepts of time series analysis into paleoclimatology. The method is applied to the monthly data of total solar irradiance (TSI), 1979–2014, and sunspot numbers (SSN), 1749–2014, to restore the TSI data over 1749–1978. The results of the reconstruction are in statistical agreement with observations.
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SC C2152: 'Comments on Privalsky & Gluhovsky paper', Frédéric Clette, 30 Oct 2015
- AC C2215: 'Reply to Dr. F.Clette', Victor Privalsky, 04 Nov 2015
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RC C2248: 'reject: too little substance, too much jargon', Anonymous Referee #1, 05 Nov 2015
- AC C2284: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #1', Victor Privalsky, 13 Nov 2015
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RC C2279: 'Too many unsubstantiated claims', Anonymous Referee #2, 13 Nov 2015
- AC C2400: 'Reply to the Anonymous REferee#2', Victor Privalsky, 19 Nov 2015
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RC C2282: 'review of Discussion paper Privalsky and Gluhovsky', Anonymous Referee #3, 13 Nov 2015
- AC C2462: 'Response to Anonymous Referee#3', Victor Privalsky, 23 Nov 2015
- SC C2525: 'About Privalsky and Gluhovsky Paper', Leon Seidel, 25 Nov 2015
- SC C2533: 'Review on a paper titled “On reconstruction of time series in climatology” by V. Privalsky and A. Gluhovsky', Alexander Benilov, 28 Nov 2015
- SC C2535: 'Comment on Privalsky and Gluhovsky paper "On Reconstruction of Time Series in Climatology"', Julie Rich, 28 Nov 2015
-
RC C2536: 'Additional comment on model verification', Anonymous Referee #1, 30 Nov 2015
- AC C2541: 'Re Anonymous Referee#1 latest comment', Victor Privalsky, 30 Nov 2015
-
SC C2152: 'Comments on Privalsky & Gluhovsky paper', Frédéric Clette, 30 Oct 2015
- AC C2215: 'Reply to Dr. F.Clette', Victor Privalsky, 04 Nov 2015
-
RC C2248: 'reject: too little substance, too much jargon', Anonymous Referee #1, 05 Nov 2015
- AC C2284: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #1', Victor Privalsky, 13 Nov 2015
-
RC C2279: 'Too many unsubstantiated claims', Anonymous Referee #2, 13 Nov 2015
- AC C2400: 'Reply to the Anonymous REferee#2', Victor Privalsky, 19 Nov 2015
-
RC C2282: 'review of Discussion paper Privalsky and Gluhovsky', Anonymous Referee #3, 13 Nov 2015
- AC C2462: 'Response to Anonymous Referee#3', Victor Privalsky, 23 Nov 2015
- SC C2525: 'About Privalsky and Gluhovsky Paper', Leon Seidel, 25 Nov 2015
- SC C2533: 'Review on a paper titled “On reconstruction of time series in climatology” by V. Privalsky and A. Gluhovsky', Alexander Benilov, 28 Nov 2015
- SC C2535: 'Comment on Privalsky and Gluhovsky paper "On Reconstruction of Time Series in Climatology"', Julie Rich, 28 Nov 2015
-
RC C2536: 'Additional comment on model verification', Anonymous Referee #1, 30 Nov 2015
- AC C2541: 'Re Anonymous Referee#1 latest comment', Victor Privalsky, 30 Nov 2015
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