Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-4701-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-4701-2015
06 Oct 2015
 | 06 Oct 2015
Status: this discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Climate of the Past (CP). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.

On reconstruction of time series in climatology

V. Privalsky and A. Gluhovsky

Abstract. The approach to time series reconstruction in climatology based upon cross-correlation coefficients and regression equations is mathematically incorrect because it ignores the dependence of time series upon their past. The proper method described here for the bivariate case requires the autoregressive time- and frequency domains modeling of the time series which contains simultaneous observations of both scalar series with subsequent application of the model to restore the shorter one into the past. The method presents further development of previous efforts taken by a number of authors starting from A. Douglass who introduced some concepts of time series analysis into paleoclimatology. The method is applied to the monthly data of total solar irradiance (TSI), 1979–2014, and sunspot numbers (SSN), 1749–2014, to restore the TSI data over 1749–1978. The results of the reconstruction are in statistical agreement with observations.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
V. Privalsky and A. Gluhovsky
 
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
 
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
V. Privalsky and A. Gluhovsky
V. Privalsky and A. Gluhovsky

Viewed

Total article views: 2,776 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
1,724 911 141 2,776 69 119
  • HTML: 1,724
  • PDF: 911
  • XML: 141
  • Total: 2,776
  • BibTeX: 69
  • EndNote: 119
Views and downloads (calculated since 06 Oct 2015)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 06 Oct 2015)

Saved

Latest update: 21 Nov 2024