the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
On the differences between two semi-empirical sea-level models for the last two millennia
M. Vermeer
S. Rahmstorf
A. Kemp
B. Horton
Abstract. We compare hindcasts of global mean sea level over the past millennium obtained using two semi-empirical models linking temperature and sea-level rise. The models differ in that one of them includes a term for a very long-term sea-level rise component unfolding over many millennia. On short (century) time scales, both models give very similar results.
Proxy sea-level reconstructions from the northern (North Carolina) and southern (New Zealand and Tasmania) hemispheres are used to test the ability of both models to reproduce the longer-term sea-level evolution. In both comparisons the model including the second term produces a markedly better fit from 1000 AD to the present.
When both models are used for generating sea-level projections, they behave similarly out to 2100 AD. Further out, to 2300–2500 AD, the projections differ significantly, in no small part due to different values for the sea-level response time scale τ obtained. We conclude that careful model validation on long time scales is important before attempting multi-century projections.
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M. Vermeer et al.


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SC C1306: '(lack of) equilibrium in the empirical model', James Annan, 21 Aug 2012
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AC C2139: 'Author reply to James Annan', Martin Vermeer, 01 Nov 2012
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AC C2139: 'Author reply to James Annan', Martin Vermeer, 01 Nov 2012
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RC C1310: 'Review of ``On the differences between two semi-empirical sea-level models for the last two millennia'' by M. Vermeer et al.', Robert Kopp, 21 Aug 2012
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AC C2131: 'Author reply to Robert Kopp', Martin Vermeer, 01 Nov 2012
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AC C2131: 'Author reply to Robert Kopp', Martin Vermeer, 01 Nov 2012
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RC C1408: 'Biased analysis and presentation', Aslak Grinsted, 04 Sep 2012
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AC C2143: 'Author reply to Aslak Grinsted', Martin Vermeer, 01 Nov 2012
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AC C2143: 'Author reply to Aslak Grinsted', Martin Vermeer, 01 Nov 2012
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SC C1836: 'North Caroline proxy sea level vs global sea level', Svetlana Jevrejeva, 09 Oct 2012
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AC C2141: 'Author reply to Svetlana Jevrejeva', Martin Vermeer, 01 Nov 2012
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AC C2141: 'Author reply to Svetlana Jevrejeva', Martin Vermeer, 01 Nov 2012
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EC C1885: 'Editor comment', Mark Siddall, 10 Oct 2012


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SC C1306: '(lack of) equilibrium in the empirical model', James Annan, 21 Aug 2012
-
AC C2139: 'Author reply to James Annan', Martin Vermeer, 01 Nov 2012
-
AC C2139: 'Author reply to James Annan', Martin Vermeer, 01 Nov 2012
-
RC C1310: 'Review of ``On the differences between two semi-empirical sea-level models for the last two millennia'' by M. Vermeer et al.', Robert Kopp, 21 Aug 2012
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AC C2131: 'Author reply to Robert Kopp', Martin Vermeer, 01 Nov 2012
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AC C2131: 'Author reply to Robert Kopp', Martin Vermeer, 01 Nov 2012
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RC C1408: 'Biased analysis and presentation', Aslak Grinsted, 04 Sep 2012
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AC C2143: 'Author reply to Aslak Grinsted', Martin Vermeer, 01 Nov 2012
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AC C2143: 'Author reply to Aslak Grinsted', Martin Vermeer, 01 Nov 2012
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SC C1836: 'North Caroline proxy sea level vs global sea level', Svetlana Jevrejeva, 09 Oct 2012
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AC C2141: 'Author reply to Svetlana Jevrejeva', Martin Vermeer, 01 Nov 2012
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AC C2141: 'Author reply to Svetlana Jevrejeva', Martin Vermeer, 01 Nov 2012
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EC C1885: 'Editor comment', Mark Siddall, 10 Oct 2012
M. Vermeer et al.
M. Vermeer et al.
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