M. Vermeer1 , S. Rahmstorf2 , A. Kemp3 , and B. Horton4
M. Vermeer et al.
M. Vermeer1 , S. Rahmstorf2 , A. Kemp3 , and B. Horton4
1 Department of Real Estate, Planning and Geoinformatics, School of Engineering, Aalto University, P.O. Box 11200, 00076 Aalto, Finland 2 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany 3 School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA 4 Sea Level Research Laboratory, Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA
1 Department of Real Estate, Planning and Geoinformatics, School of Engineering, Aalto University, P.O. Box 11200, 00076 Aalto, Finland 2 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany 3 School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA 4 Sea Level Research Laboratory, Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA
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Received: 24 Jul 2012 – Accepted for review: 25 Jul 2012 – Discussion started: 14 Aug 2012
We compare hindcasts of global mean sea level over the past millennium obtained using two semi-empirical models linking temperature and sea-level rise. The models differ in that one of them includes a term for a very long-term sea-level rise component unfolding over many millennia. On short (century) time scales, both models give very similar results. Proxy sea-level reconstructions from the northern (North Carolina) and southern (New Zealand and Tasmania) hemispheres are used to test the ability of both models to reproduce the longer-term sea-level evolution. In both comparisons the model including the second term produces a markedly better fit from 1000 AD to the present. When both models are used for generating sea-level projections, they behave similarly out to 2100 AD. Further out, to 2300–2500 AD, the projections differ significantly, in no small part due to different values for the sea-level response time scale τ obtained. We conclude that careful model validation on long time scales is important before attempting multi-century projections.
M. Vermeer et al.
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