Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-8-3551-2012
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-8-3551-2012
14 Aug 2012
 | 14 Aug 2012
Status: this preprint was under review for the journal CP. A revision for further review has not been submitted.

On the differences between two semi-empirical sea-level models for the last two millennia

M. Vermeer, S. Rahmstorf, A. Kemp, and B. Horton

Abstract. We compare hindcasts of global mean sea level over the past millennium obtained using two semi-empirical models linking temperature and sea-level rise. The models differ in that one of them includes a term for a very long-term sea-level rise component unfolding over many millennia. On short (century) time scales, both models give very similar results.

Proxy sea-level reconstructions from the northern (North Carolina) and southern (New Zealand and Tasmania) hemispheres are used to test the ability of both models to reproduce the longer-term sea-level evolution. In both comparisons the model including the second term produces a markedly better fit from 1000 AD to the present.

When both models are used for generating sea-level projections, they behave similarly out to 2100 AD. Further out, to 2300–2500 AD, the projections differ significantly, in no small part due to different values for the sea-level response time scale τ obtained. We conclude that careful model validation on long time scales is important before attempting multi-century projections.

M. Vermeer, S. Rahmstorf, A. Kemp, and B. Horton
 
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
 
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
M. Vermeer, S. Rahmstorf, A. Kemp, and B. Horton
M. Vermeer, S. Rahmstorf, A. Kemp, and B. Horton

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