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Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-6-2557-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-6-2557-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  16 Nov 2010

16 Nov 2010

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This preprint was under review for the journal CP but the revision was not accepted.

Glacial cycles and solar insolation: the role of orbital, seasonal, and spatial variations

R. K. Kaufmann1 and K. Juselius2 R. K. Kaufmann and K. Juselius
  • 1Boston University, Boston, USA
  • 2University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

Abstract. We use a statistical model, the cointegrated vector autoregressive model, to evaluate the relative roles that orbital, seasonal, and spatial variations in solar insolation play in glacial cycles during the late Quaternary (390kyr – present). To do so, we estimate models of varying complexity and compare the accuracy of their in-sample simulations. Results indicate that variations in solar insolation associated with changes in Earth's orbit have the greatest explanatory power and that obliquity, precession, and eccentricity are needed to generate an accurate simulation of glacial cycles. Seasonal variations in insolation play a lesser role, while cumulative summer-time insolation has little explanatory power. Finally, solar insolation in the Northern Hemisphere generates the more accurate in-sample simulation of surface temperature while ice volume is simulated most accurately by solar insolation in the Southern Hemisphere.

R. K. Kaufmann and K. Juselius

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

R. K. Kaufmann and K. Juselius

R. K. Kaufmann and K. Juselius

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