Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-6-585-2010
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-6-585-2010
20 Apr 2010
 | 20 Apr 2010
Status: this preprint was under review for the journal CP but the revision was not accepted.

Glacial cycles: exogenous orbital changes vs. endogenous climate dynamics

R. K. Kaufmann and K. Juselius

Abstract. We use a statistical model, the cointegrated vector autoregressive model, to assess the degree to which variations in Earth's orbit and endogenous climate dynamics can be used to simulate glacial cycles during the late Quaternary (390 kyr–present). To do so, we estimate models of varying complexity and compare the accuracy of their in-sample simulations. Results indicate that strong statistical associations between endogenous climate variables are not enough for statistical models to reproduce glacial cycles. Rather, changes in solar insolation associated with changes in Earth's orbit are needed to simulate glacial cycles accurately. Also, results suggest that non-linear dynamics, threshold effects, and/or free oscillations may not play an overriding role in glacial cycles.

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R. K. Kaufmann and K. Juselius
 
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
 
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
R. K. Kaufmann and K. Juselius
R. K. Kaufmann and K. Juselius

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