Charmantier, A., McCleery, R. H., Cole, L. R., Perrins, C., Kruuk, L. E. B., and Sheldon, B. C.: Adaptive phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change in a wild bird population, Science, 320, 800–803, 2008.
Cherwell Inc.: SB ModelMaker Ver. 2.0. Cherwell Scientific Publishing Ltd, Oxford, 1995.
Crick, H. Q. P., Dudley, C., Glue, D. E., and Thomson, D. L.: UK birds are laying eggs earlier, Nature, 388, 526–526, 1997.
Defila, C.: Pflanzenphänologie der Schweiz, Veröff. Schweiz. Meteorol. Ans., 50, 235 pp., 1991.
Drever, M. C. and Clark, R. G.: Spring temperature, clutch initiation date and duck nest success: a test of the mismatch hypothesis, Ecology, 76, 139–148, 2007.
Dunn, P. O. and Winkler, D. W.: Climate change has affected the breeding date of tree swallows throughout North America, P. Roy. Soc. B, 266, 24887–2490, 1999.
Githaiga-Mwicigi, J. M. W., Fairbanks, D. H. K., and Midgley, G.: Hierarchical processes define spatial pattern of avian assemblages restricted and endemic to the arid Karoo, South Africa, J. Biogeogr., 29, 1067–1087, 2002.
Gordo, O. and Sanz, J. J.: Climate change and bird phenology: a long-term study in the Iberian Peninsula, Glob. Change Biol., 12, 1993–2004, 2006.
Gordo, O. and Sanz, J. J.: Long-term temporal changes of plant phenology in the western Mediterranean, Glob. Change Biol., 15, 1930–1948, 2009.
Grosbois, V., Henry, P. Y., Blondel, J., Perret, P., Lebreton, J.-D., Thomas, D. W., and Lambrechts, M.: Climate impacts on Mediterranean blue tit survival: an investigation across seasons and spatial scales, Glob. Change Biol., 12, 2235–2249, 2006.
Huntley, B., Green, R. E., Collingham, Y., and Willis, S. G.: A climatic Atlas of European breeding birds, Lynx Editions, Bellaterra, 2008.
Hurrell, J. W.: Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation and relationships to regional temperature and precipitation, Science, 269, 676–679, 1995.
Hurrell, J. W. and Trenberth, K. E.: Climate change, in: Effects of climate change on birds, edited by: Møller, A. P., Fiedler, W., and Berthold, P., Oxford University Press, 2010.
Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., and Visbeck, M.: The North Atlantic Oscillation. Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact, Am. Geophys. Union, Washington DC, 2003.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers. In: Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, 2007.
Kalela, O.: Zur säkularen Rhythmik der Arealveränderungen europäischer Vögel und Säugetiere, Orn. Fenn., 27, 1–30, 1950.
Kutiel, H. and Benaroch, Y.: North Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP) – an upper level atmospheric teleconnection affecting the eastern Mediterranean: Identification and definition, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 71, 17–28, 2002.
Luterbacher, J., Xoplaki, E., Dietrich, D., Jones, P. D., Davies, T. D., Portis, D., Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F., von Storch, H., Gyalistras, D., Casty, C., and Wanner, H.: Extending North Atlantic Oscillation Reconstructions Back to 1500, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 2, 114–124, https://doi.org/10.1006/asle.2002.0047, 2001.
Luterbacher, J., Xoplaki, E., Dietrich, D., Rickli, R., Jacobeit, J., Beck, C., Gyalistras, D., Schmutz, C., and Wanner, H.: Reconstruction of Sea Level Pressure fields over the Eastern North Atlantic and Europe back to 1500, Clim. Dynam., 18, 545–561, 2002.
Luterbacher, J., Dietrich, D., Xoplaki, E., Grosjean, M., and Wanner, H.: European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500, Science, 303, 1499–1503, 2004
Martin, T. E.: Climate correlates of 20 yr of trophic changes in a high-elevation riparian system, Ecology, 88, 367–380, 2007.
Meehl, G. A., Stocker, T. F., Collins, W. D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A. T., Gregory, J. M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J. M., Noda, A., Raper, S. C. B., Watterson, I. G., Weaver A. J., and Zhao, Z.-C.: Global Climate Projections, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007.
Naef-Daenzer, B. and Keller, L. F.: The foraging performance of great and blue tits (
Parus major and
P. caeruleus) in relation to caterpillar development, and its consequences for nestling growth and fledging weight, J. Anim. Ecol., 68, 708–718, 1999.
Naef-Daenzer, L., Nager, R. G., Keller, L. F., and Naef-Daenzer, B.: Are hatching delays a cost or a benefit for great tit Parus major parents?, Ardea, 92, 229–238, 2004.
Nilsson, J. A. and Källander, H.: Leafing phenology and timing of egg laying in great tits (
Parus major) and blue tits (
Parus caeruleus), J. Avian Biol., 37, 357–363, 2006.
Nott, M. P., Desante, D. F., Siegel, R. B., and Pyle, P.: Influences of the El Niño Southern oscillation and the North Atlantic oscillation on avian productivity in forests of the pacific northwest of North America, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 11, 333–342, 2002.
Parmesan, C.: Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. S., 37, 637–669, 2006.
Pfister, C. and Dietrich, U. (Eds.): Euro-Climhist: A database on past weather and climate in Europe and its human dimension, University of Bern, available at: www.euroclimhist.ch (last access: 9 October 2012), 2006.
Rutishauser, T., Luterbacher, J., Jeanneret, F., Pfister, C., and Wanner, H.: A phenology-based reconstruction of inter-annual changes in past spring seasons, J. Geophys. Res., 112, G04016, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JG000382, 2007.
Saether, B. E., Engen, S., Møller, A. P., Matthysen, E., Adriaensen, F., Fiedler, W., Leivits, A., Lambrechts, M. M., Visser, M. E., Anker-Nilssen, T., Both, C., Dhondt, A. A. , McCleery, R. H., McMeeking, J., Potti, J., Røstad, O. W., and Thomson, D.: Climate variation and regional gradients in population dynamics of two hole-nesting passerines, P. R. Soc. London, 270, 2397–2404, 2003.
Saether, B. E., Engen, S., Grøtan, V., Fiedler, W., Matthysen, E., Visser, M. E., Wright, J., Møller, A. P., Adriaensen, F., van Balen, H., Balmer, D., Mainwaring, M. C., McCleery, R. H., Pampus, M., and Winkel, W.: The extended Moran effect and large-scale synchronous fluctuations in the size of great tit and blue tit populations, J. Anim. Ecol., 76, 315–325, 2007.
Sanz, J. J.: Climate change and breeding parameters of great and blue tits throughout the western Palaearctic, Glob. Change Biol., 8, 409–422, 2002.
Schaber, J. and Badeck, F.: Evaluation of methods for the combination of phenological time series and outlier detection, Tree Physiol., 22, 973–982, 2002.
Schmid, H., Luder, R., Naef-Daenzer, B., and Zbinden, N.: Atlas of Swiss breeding birds, Swiss Ornithological Institute, Sempach, 1998.
Sokolov, L. V.: Spring ambient temperature as an important factor controlling timing of arrival, breeding, post-fledging dispersal and breeding success of Pied Flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca in Eastern Baltic, Avian Ecol. Behav., 5, 79–104, 2001.
StatSoft Inc.: STATISTICA, version 7.1., available at: www.statsoft.com (last access: 9 October 2012), 2006.
Summers, D. M., Bryan, B. A., Crossman, N. D., and Meyer, W. S.: Species vulnerability to climate change: impacts on spatial conservation priorities and species representation, Glob. Change Biol., 18, 2335–2348, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02700.x, 2012.
Van Dongen, S., Backeljau, T., Matthysen, E., and Dhondt, A.: Synchronization of hatching date with budburst of individual host trees (Quercus robur) in the winter moth and its fitness consequences, J. Anim. Ecol., 66, 113–121, 1997.
Visser, M. E., Van Noordwijk, A. J., Tinbergen, J. M., and Lessells, C. M.: Warmer springs lead to mistimed reproduction in great tits (
Parus major), P. Roy. Soc. Lond. B., 265, 1867–1870, 1998.
Visser, M. E., Adriaensen, F., Van Balen, J. H., Blondel, J., Dhondt, A. A., Van Dongen, S., Du Feu, C., Ivankina, E. V., Kerimov, A. B., De Laet, J., Matthysen, E., McCleery, R., Orell, M., and Thomson, D. L.: Variable responses to large-scale climate change in European Parus populations, P. Roy. Soc. Lond. B., 270, 367–372, 2002.
Walther, G. R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T. J. C., Fromentin, J.-M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., and Bairlein, F.: Ecological responses to recent climate change, Nature, 416, 389–395, 2002.
Wanner, H., Brönnimann, S., Casty, C., Gyalistras, D., Luterbacher, J., Schmutz, C., Stephenson, D. B., and Xoplaki, E.: North Atlantic Oscillation – Concepts and Studies, Surv. Geophys., 22, 321–381, 2001.
Willis, K. J. and Bhagwat, S. A.: Questions of importance to the conservation of biological diversity: answers from the past, Clim. Past, 6, 759–769, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-759-2010, 2010.
Willis, K. J. and MacDonald, G. M.: Long-Term Ecological Records and Their Relevance to Climate Change Predictions for a Warmer World, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. S., 42, 267–287, 2011.
Willis, K. J., Araújo, M. B., Bennett, K. D., Figueroa-Rangel, B., Froyd, C. A., and Myers, N.: How can a knowledge of the past help to conserve the future? Biodiversity conservation and the relevance of long-term ecological studies, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B., 362, 175–186, 2007.
Winkel, W. and Hudde, H.: Long-term trends in reproductive traits of tits (Parus major, P. caeruleus) and pied flycatchers (
Ficedula hypoleuca), J. Avian Biol., 28, 187–190, 1997.
Xoplaki, E., Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F., Luterbacher, J., and Wanner, H.: Wet season Mediterranean precipitation variability: influence of large-scale dynamics and trends, Clim. Dynam., 23, 63–78, 2004.
Xoplaki, E., Luterbacher, J., Paeth, H., Dietrich, D., Steiner N., Grosjean, M., and Wanner, H.: European spring and autumn temperature variability and change of extremes over the last half millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15713, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023424, 2005.
