Articles | Volume 21, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1755-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1755-2025
Research article
 | 
20 Oct 2025
Research article |  | 20 Oct 2025

Using reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol and climate models to produce large ensemble simulations of Holocene temperature

Magali Verkerk, Thomas J. Aubry, Chris Smith, Peter O. Hopcroft, Michael Sigl, Jessica E. Tierney, Kevin Anchukaitis, Matthew Osman, Anja Schmidt, and Matthew Toohey

Data sets

Large ensemble simulations of Holocene temperature and volcanic forcing Magali Verkerk et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14170014

HolVol: Reconstructed volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth for the Holocene (9500 BCE to 1900 CE) Michael Sigl et al. https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.928646

Reconstructed volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth, 500 BCE to 1900 CE, version 3 Matthew Toohey and Michael Sigl https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/eVolv2k_v3

Anthropogenic land-use estimates for the Holocene; HYDE 3.2 C. G. M. Klein Goldewijk https://doi.org/10.17026/DANS-25G-GEZ3

The KK10 Anthropogenic Land Cover Change scenario for the preindustrial Holocene, link to data in NetCDF format Jed O. Kaplan and Kristen M. Krumhardt https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.871369

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Northern Hemisphere Extratropics 1400 Year MXD Summer Temperature Reconstruction L. Schneider et al. https://doi.org/10.25921/6mdt-5246

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Northern Hemisphere 1250 Year N-TREND Summer Temperature Reconstructions R. J. S. Wilson et al. https://doi.org/10.25921/kztr-jd59

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Northern Hemisphere 1,500 Year Summer Temperature Reconstructions S. Guillet et al. https://doi.org/10.25921/42gh-z167

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - PAGES2k Common Era Surface Temperature Reconstructions R. Neukom et al. https://doi.org/10.25921/tkxp-vn12

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Northern Hemisphere 2,000 Year Tree-Ring Ensemble Temperature Reconstructions U. Büntgen https://doi.org/10.25921/9986-r929

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Northern Hemisphere 1262 year NTREND Assimilation Surface Temperature Reconstructions J. M. King et al. https://doi.org/10.25921/vey7-kx38

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Globally Resolved Surface Temperatures Since the Last Glacial Maximum M. B. Osman et al. https://doi.org/10.25921/njxd-hg08

Holocene temperature reconstruction using paleoclimate data assimilation (1.0.0-beta) Michael P. Erb et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6426332

Supporting material for "The effect of uncertainties in natural forcing records on simulated temperature during the last Millennium" Lucie J. Luecke https://doi.org/10.7488/ds/3834

SATIRE model reconstruction of total and spectral solar irradiance Solar Variability and Climate Group https://doi.org/10.17617/1.5U

Compilations and splined-smoothed calculations of continuous records of the atmospheric greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, and N2O and their radiative forcing since the penultimate glacial maximum Peter Köhler et al. https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.871273

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP) protocol (v5.1.0) Zebedee Nicholls and Jared Lewis https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4589756

CMIP7 historical stratospheric aerosol optical properties and stratospheric volcanic sulfur emissions: version 2.2.1 dataset and preliminary documentation Thomas Aubry et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15556387

GES DISC Dataset: Multi-Satellite Volcanic Sulfur Dioxide L4 Long-Term Global Database~V4 (MSVOLSO2L4 4) Simon Carn https://doi.org/10.5067/MEASURES/SO2/DATA405

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Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions can trigger global cooling, affecting human societies. Using ice-core records and simple climate model to simulate volcanic effect over the last 8500 years, we show that volcanic eruptions cool the climate by 0.12 °C on average. By comparing model results with temperature recorded by tree rings over the last 1000 years, we demonstrate that our models can predict the large-scale cooling caused by volcanic eruptions and can be used in cases of large eruptions in the future.
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