Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2719-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2719-2024
Research article
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16 Dec 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 16 Dec 2024

Surface buoyancy control of millennial-scale variations in the Atlantic meridional ocean circulation

Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Neil R. Edwards, and Stefan Rahmstorf

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Latest update: 16 Dec 2024
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is at its weakest of the last millennium and is projected to further weaken over the coming decades, with the risk of a collapse over the coming century non negligible. The geologic record provides examples of rapid and large AMOC variations, with phases of AMOC weakening, preceding an AMOC shutdown. One key question is whether CO2-driven AMOC weakening is reversible, or whether it represents a tipping point, which might lead to an AMOC collapse. The study by Willeit et al. offers a new diagnostic that is simple to implement and allows for comparing AMOC stability between different models, as well as different time periods. This offers a powerful new tool in understanding the conditions for AMOC stability, and thus the AMOC future.
Short summary
Using an Earth system model that can simulate Dansgaard–Oeschger-like events, we show that conditions under which millennial-scale climate variability occurs are related to the integrated surface buoyancy flux over the northern North Atlantic. This newly defined buoyancy measure explains why millennial-scale climate variability arising from abrupt changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation occurred for mid-glacial conditions but not for interglacial or full glacial conditions.