Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1703-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1703-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Aug 2024
Research article |
| 01 Aug 2024
| 01 Aug 2024
Patterns of centennial to millennial Holocene climate variation in the North American mid-latitudes
Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
Related authors
Andria Dawson, John W. Williams, Marie-José Gaillard, Simon J. Goring, Behnaz Pirzamanbein, Johan Lindstrom, R. Scott Anderson, Andrea Brunelle, David Foster, Konrad Gajewski, Dan G. Gavin, Terri Lacourse, Thomas A. Minckley, Wyatt Oswald, Bryan Shuman, and Cathy Whitlock
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-6, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
Holocene vegetation-atmosphere interactions provide insight into intensifying land use impacts and the Holocene Conundrum- a mismatch between data- and model- inferred temperature. Using pollen records and statistical modeling, we reconstruct Holocene land cover for North America. We determine patterns and magnitudes of land cover changes across scales. We attribute land cover changes to ecological, climatic, and human drivers. These reconstructions provide benchmarks for Earth System Models.
David T. Liefert and Bryan N. Shuman
Clim. Past, 18, 1109–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1109-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A large drought potentially occurred roughly 4200 years ago, but its impacts and significance are unclear. We find new evidence in carbonate oxygen isotopes from a mountain lake in southeastern Wyoming, southern Rocky Mountains, of an abrupt reduction in effective moisture (precipitation–evaporation) or snowpack from approximately 4200–4000 years ago. The drought's prominence among a growing number of sites in the North American interior suggests it was a regionally substantial climate event.
Cody C. Routson, Darrell S. Kaufman, Nicholas P. McKay, Michael P. Erb, Stéphanie H. Arcusa, Kendrick J. Brown, Matthew E. Kirby, Jeremiah P. Marsicek, R. Scott Anderson, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Jessica R. Rodysill, Matthew S. Lachniet, Sherilyn C. Fritz, Joseph R. Bennett, Michelle F. Goman, Sarah E. Metcalfe, Jennifer M. Galloway, Gerrit Schoups, David B. Wahl, Jesse L. Morris, Francisca Staines-Urías, Andria Dawson, Bryan N. Shuman, Daniel G. Gavin, Jeffrey S. Munroe, and Brian F. Cumming
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1613–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1613-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1613-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a curated database of western North American Holocene paleoclimate records, which have been screened on length, resolution, and geochronology. The database gathers paleoclimate time series that reflect temperature, hydroclimate, or circulation features from terrestrial and marine sites, spanning a region from Mexico to Alaska. This publicly accessible collection will facilitate a broad range of paleoclimate inquiry.
Bryan N. Shuman, Cody Routson, Nicholas McKay, Sherilyn Fritz, Darrell Kaufman, Matthew E. Kirby, Connor Nolan, Gregory T. Pederson, and Jeannine-Marie St-Jacques
Clim. Past, 14, 665–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-665-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-665-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A synthesis of 93 published records reveals that moisture availability increased over large portions of North America over the past 2000 years, the Common Era (CE). In many records, the second millennium CE tended to be wetter than the first millennium CE. The long-term changes formed the background for annual to multi-decade variations, such as "mega-droughts", and also provide a context for amplified rates of hydrologic change today.
Jennifer R. Marlon, Neil Pederson, Connor Nolan, Simon Goring, Bryan Shuman, Ann Robertson, Robert Booth, Patrick J. Bartlein, Melissa A. Berke, Michael Clifford, Edward Cook, Ann Dieffenbacher-Krall, Michael C. Dietze, Amy Hessl, J. Bradford Hubeny, Stephen T. Jackson, Jeremiah Marsicek, Jason McLachlan, Cary J. Mock, David J. P. Moore, Jonathan Nichols, Dorothy Peteet, Kevin Schaefer, Valerie Trouet, Charles Umbanhowar, John W. Williams, and Zicheng Yu
Clim. Past, 13, 1355–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
To improve our understanding of paleoclimate in the northeastern (NE) US, we compiled data from pollen, tree rings, lake levels, testate amoeba from bogs, and other proxies from the last 3000 years. The paleoclimate synthesis supports long-term cooling until the 1800s and reveals an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions around 550–750 CE. Evidence suggests the region is now becoming warmer and wetter, but more calibrated data are needed, especially to capture multidecadal variability.
Andria Dawson, John W. Williams, Marie-José Gaillard, Simon J. Goring, Behnaz Pirzamanbein, Johan Lindstrom, R. Scott Anderson, Andrea Brunelle, David Foster, Konrad Gajewski, Dan G. Gavin, Terri Lacourse, Thomas A. Minckley, Wyatt Oswald, Bryan Shuman, and Cathy Whitlock
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-6, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
Holocene vegetation-atmosphere interactions provide insight into intensifying land use impacts and the Holocene Conundrum- a mismatch between data- and model- inferred temperature. Using pollen records and statistical modeling, we reconstruct Holocene land cover for North America. We determine patterns and magnitudes of land cover changes across scales. We attribute land cover changes to ecological, climatic, and human drivers. These reconstructions provide benchmarks for Earth System Models.
David T. Liefert and Bryan N. Shuman
Clim. Past, 18, 1109–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1109-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A large drought potentially occurred roughly 4200 years ago, but its impacts and significance are unclear. We find new evidence in carbonate oxygen isotopes from a mountain lake in southeastern Wyoming, southern Rocky Mountains, of an abrupt reduction in effective moisture (precipitation–evaporation) or snowpack from approximately 4200–4000 years ago. The drought's prominence among a growing number of sites in the North American interior suggests it was a regionally substantial climate event.
Cody C. Routson, Darrell S. Kaufman, Nicholas P. McKay, Michael P. Erb, Stéphanie H. Arcusa, Kendrick J. Brown, Matthew E. Kirby, Jeremiah P. Marsicek, R. Scott Anderson, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Jessica R. Rodysill, Matthew S. Lachniet, Sherilyn C. Fritz, Joseph R. Bennett, Michelle F. Goman, Sarah E. Metcalfe, Jennifer M. Galloway, Gerrit Schoups, David B. Wahl, Jesse L. Morris, Francisca Staines-Urías, Andria Dawson, Bryan N. Shuman, Daniel G. Gavin, Jeffrey S. Munroe, and Brian F. Cumming
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1613–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1613-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1613-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a curated database of western North American Holocene paleoclimate records, which have been screened on length, resolution, and geochronology. The database gathers paleoclimate time series that reflect temperature, hydroclimate, or circulation features from terrestrial and marine sites, spanning a region from Mexico to Alaska. This publicly accessible collection will facilitate a broad range of paleoclimate inquiry.
Bryan N. Shuman, Cody Routson, Nicholas McKay, Sherilyn Fritz, Darrell Kaufman, Matthew E. Kirby, Connor Nolan, Gregory T. Pederson, and Jeannine-Marie St-Jacques
Clim. Past, 14, 665–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-665-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-665-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A synthesis of 93 published records reveals that moisture availability increased over large portions of North America over the past 2000 years, the Common Era (CE). In many records, the second millennium CE tended to be wetter than the first millennium CE. The long-term changes formed the background for annual to multi-decade variations, such as "mega-droughts", and also provide a context for amplified rates of hydrologic change today.
Jennifer R. Marlon, Neil Pederson, Connor Nolan, Simon Goring, Bryan Shuman, Ann Robertson, Robert Booth, Patrick J. Bartlein, Melissa A. Berke, Michael Clifford, Edward Cook, Ann Dieffenbacher-Krall, Michael C. Dietze, Amy Hessl, J. Bradford Hubeny, Stephen T. Jackson, Jeremiah Marsicek, Jason McLachlan, Cary J. Mock, David J. P. Moore, Jonathan Nichols, Dorothy Peteet, Kevin Schaefer, Valerie Trouet, Charles Umbanhowar, John W. Williams, and Zicheng Yu
Clim. Past, 13, 1355–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
To improve our understanding of paleoclimate in the northeastern (NE) US, we compiled data from pollen, tree rings, lake levels, testate amoeba from bogs, and other proxies from the last 3000 years. The paleoclimate synthesis supports long-term cooling until the 1800s and reveals an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions around 550–750 CE. Evidence suggests the region is now becoming warmer and wetter, but more calibrated data are needed, especially to capture multidecadal variability.
Related subject area
Subject: Atmospheric Dynamics | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Holocene
North Atlantic Oscillation polarity during the past 3000 years derived from sediments of a large lowland lake, Schweriner See, in NE Germany
Regional pollen-based Holocene temperature and precipitation patterns depart from the Northern Hemisphere mean trends
Mid-Holocene reinforcement of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation variability from a western Baltic lake sediment record
Holocene sea level and environmental change at the southern Cape – an 8.5 kyr multi-proxy paleoclimate record from Lake Voëlvlei, South Africa
Tree-ring-based spring precipitation reconstruction in the Sikhote-Alin' Mountain range
Radionuclide wiggle matching reveals a nonsynchronous early Holocene climate oscillation in Greenland and western Europe around a grand solar minimum
Hydrological variations in central China over the past millennium and their links to the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic oceans
Atmospheric blocking induced by the strengthened Siberian High led to drying in west Asia during the 4.2 ka BP event – a hypothesis
Hydro-climatic variability in the southwestern Indian Ocean between 6000 and 3000 years ago
Evidence for increased expression of the Amundsen Sea Low over the South Atlantic during the late Holocene
The 4.2 ka BP event: multi-proxy records from a closed lake in the northern margin of the East Asian summer monsoon
Drought and vegetation change in the central Rocky Mountains and western Great Plains: potential climatic mechanisms associated with megadrought conditions at 4200 cal yr BP
Placing the Common Era in a Holocene context: millennial to centennial patterns and trends in the hydroclimate of North America over the past 2000 years
Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions
Reconstructing Late Holocene North Atlantic atmospheric circulation changes using functional paleoclimate networks
Periodic input of dust over the Eastern Carpathians during the Holocene linked with Saharan desertification and human impact
Frequency and intensity of palaeofloods at the interface of Atlantic and Mediterranean climate domains
A 250-year periodicity in Southern Hemisphere westerly winds over the last 2600 years
Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns
The influence of atmospheric circulation on the mid-Holocene climate of Europe: a data–model comparison
Late Holocene summer temperatures in the central Andes reconstructed from the sediments of high-elevation Laguna Chepical, Chile (32° S)
Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series
Precipitation variability in the winter rainfall zone of South Africa during the last 1400 yr linked to the austral westerlies
Relationship between Holocene climate variations over southern Greenland and eastern Baffin Island and synoptic circulation pattern
Marie-Luise Adolph, Sambor Czerwiński, Mirko Dreßler, Paul Strobel, Marcel Bliedtner, Sebastian Lorenz, Maxime Debret, and Torsten Haberzettl
Clim. Past, 20, 2143–2165, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2143-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2143-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct environmental changes derived from sediments of Schweriner See, a large lake in NE Germany, for the past 3000 years. We infer variations in North Atlantic large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), by combining sedimentological, geochemical, and biological parameters. Our results suggest distinct shifts between positive and negative NAO phases affecting winter temperatures, precipitation, and westerly wind strength at our study site.
Ulrike Herzschuh, Thomas Böhmer, Manuel Chevalier, Raphaël Hébert, Anne Dallmeyer, Chenzhi Li, Xianyong Cao, Odile Peyron, Larisa Nazarova, Elena Y. Novenko, Jungjae Park, Natalia A. Rudaya, Frank Schlütz, Lyudmila S. Shumilovskikh, Pavel E. Tarasov, Yongbo Wang, Ruilin Wen, Qinghai Xu, and Zhuo Zheng
Clim. Past, 19, 1481–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A mismatch between model- and proxy-based Holocene climate change may partially originate from the poor spatial coverage of climate reconstructions. Here we investigate quantitative reconstructions of mean annual temperature and annual precipitation from 1908 pollen records in the Northern Hemisphere. Trends show strong latitudinal patterns and differ between (sub-)continents. Our work contributes to a better understanding of the global mean.
Markus Czymzik, Rik Tjallingii, Birgit Plessen, Peter Feldens, Martin Theuerkauf, Matthias Moros, Markus J. Schwab, Carla K. M. Nantke, Silvia Pinkerneil, Achim Brauer, and Helge W. Arz
Clim. Past, 19, 233–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-233-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Productivity increases in Lake Kälksjön sediments during the last 9600 years are likely driven by the progressive millennial-scale winter warming in northwestern Europe, following the increasing Northern Hemisphere winter insolation and decadal to centennial periods of a more positive NAO polarity. Strengthened productivity variability since ∼5450 cal yr BP is hypothesized to reflect a reinforcement of NAO-like atmospheric circulation.
Paul Strobel, Marcel Bliedtner, Andrew S. Carr, Peter Frenzel, Björn Klaes, Gary Salazar, Julian Struck, Sönke Szidat, Roland Zech, and Torsten Haberzettl
Clim. Past, 17, 1567–1586, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1567-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a multi-proxy record from Lake Voёlvlei and provides new insights into the sea level and paleoclimate history of the past 8.5 ka at South Africa’s southern Cape coast. Our results show that sea level changes at the southern coast are in good agreement with the western coast of South Africa. In terms of climate our record provides valuable insights into changing sources of precipitation at the southern Cape coast, i.e. westerly- and easterly-derived precipitation contribution.
Olga Ukhvatkina, Alexander Omelko, Dmitriy Kislov, Alexander Zhmerenetsky, Tatyana Epifanova, and Jan Altman
Clim. Past, 17, 951–967, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-951-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first precipitation reconstructions for three sites along a latitudinal gradient in the Sikhote-Alin' mountains (Russian Far East). The reconstructions are based on Korean pine tree rings. We found that an important limiting factor for this species growth was precipitation during the spring-to-early-summer period. The periodicity found in our reconstructions suggests the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Pacific Dedacadal Oscillation on the region's climate.
Florian Mekhaldi, Markus Czymzik, Florian Adolphi, Jesper Sjolte, Svante Björck, Ala Aldahan, Achim Brauer, Celia Martin-Puertas, Göran Possnert, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 16, 1145–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1145-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1145-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Due to chronology uncertainties within paleoclimate archives, it is unclear how climate oscillations from different records relate to one another. By using radionuclides to synchronize Greenland ice cores and a German lake record over 11 000 years, we show that two oscillations observed in these records were not synchronous but terminated and began with the onset of a grand solar minimum. Both this and changes in ocean circulation could have played a role in the two climate oscillations.
Fucai Duan, Zhenqiu Zhang, Yi Wang, Jianshun Chen, Zebo Liao, Shitao Chen, Qingfeng Shao, and Kan Zhao
Clim. Past, 16, 475–485, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-475-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-475-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct a detailed history of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) using stalagmite records in central China during the last millennium. We estimate responses of the EASM to anthropogenic global warming by comparing its relative intensity between the Current Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly, two recent warm periods. We also study potential links of the EASM to the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. This work advances our understanding of EASM dynamics.
Aurel Perşoiu, Monica Ionita, and Harvey Weiss
Clim. Past, 15, 781–793, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-781-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-781-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present a reconstruction of winter climate around 4.2 ka cal BP in Europe, west Asia, and northern Africa that shows generally low temperatures and heterogeneously distributed precipitation. We hypothesize that in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere the 4.2 ka BP event was caused by the strengthening and expansion of the Siberian High, which effectively blocked the moisture-carrying westerlies from reaching west Asia and also resulted in outbreaks of northerly cold and dry winds.
Hanying Li, Hai Cheng, Ashish Sinha, Gayatri Kathayat, Christoph Spötl, Aurèle Anquetil André, Arnaud Meunier, Jayant Biswas, Pengzhen Duan, Youfeng Ning, and Richard Lawrence Edwards
Clim. Past, 14, 1881–1891, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1881-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1881-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The
4.2 ka eventbetween 4.2 and 3.9 ka has been widely discussed in the Northern Hemsiphere but less reported in the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we use speleothem records from Rodrigues in the southwestern Indian Ocean spanning from 6000 to 3000 years ago to investigate the regional hydro-climatic variability. Our records show no evidence for an unusual climate anomaly between 4.2 and 3.9 ka. Instead, it shows a multi-centennial drought between 3.9 and 3.5 ka.
Zoë A. Thomas, Richard T. Jones, Chris J. Fogwill, Jackie Hatton, Alan N. Williams, Alan Hogg, Scott Mooney, Philip Jones, David Lister, Paul Mayewski, and Chris S. M. Turney
Clim. Past, 14, 1727–1738, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1727-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1727-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We report a high-resolution study of a 5000-year-long peat record from the Falkland Islands. This area sensitive to the dynamics of the Amundsen Sea Low, which plays a major role in modulating the Southern Ocean climate. We find wetter, colder conditions between 5.0 and 2.5 ka due to enhanced southerly airflow, with the establishment of drier and warmer conditions from 2.5 ka to present. This implies more westerly airflow and the increased projection of the ASL onto the South Atlantic.
Jule Xiao, Shengrui Zhang, Jiawei Fan, Ruilin Wen, Dayou Zhai, Zhiping Tian, and Dabang Jiang
Clim. Past, 14, 1417–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1417-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1417-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Multiple proxies of a sediment core at Hulun Lake in the northern margin of the EASM reveal a prominent dry event at the interval of 4210–3840 cal. yr BP that could be the regional manifestation of the 4.2 ka BP event. Future studies should be focused on the investigation of high-quality, high-resolution proxy records from climatically sensitive and geographically representative regions in order to explore the spatiotemporal pattern of the 4.2 ka BP event and the associated dynamic mechanism.
Vachel A. Carter, Jacqueline J. Shinker, and Jonathon Preece
Clim. Past, 14, 1195–1212, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1195-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1195-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Between 4200 and 4000 cal yr BP, paleoecological evidence suggests a megadrought occurred in the central Rocky Mountains and western Great Plains. Modern climate analogues were used to explore potential climate mechanisms responsible for the ecological changes. Analogues illustrate that warm and dry conditions persisted through the growing season as a result of anomalously higher-than-normal heights centred over the Great Plains which suppressed moisture transport to the region.
Bryan N. Shuman, Cody Routson, Nicholas McKay, Sherilyn Fritz, Darrell Kaufman, Matthew E. Kirby, Connor Nolan, Gregory T. Pederson, and Jeannine-Marie St-Jacques
Clim. Past, 14, 665–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-665-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-665-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A synthesis of 93 published records reveals that moisture availability increased over large portions of North America over the past 2000 years, the Common Era (CE). In many records, the second millennium CE tended to be wetter than the first millennium CE. The long-term changes formed the background for annual to multi-decade variations, such as "mega-droughts", and also provide a context for amplified rates of hydrologic change today.
Mandy Freund, Benjamin J. Henley, David J. Karoly, Kathryn J. Allen, and Patrick J. Baker
Clim. Past, 13, 1751–1770, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1751-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1751-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
To understand how climate change will influence Australian rainfall we must first understand the long-term context of droughts and floods. We reconstruct warm and cool season rainfall in Australia's eight major climatic regions for several centuries into the past, building the clearest picture yet of long-term rainfall variability across the Australian continent. We find recent rainfall increases in the warm season in the north, and declines in the cool season in the south, to be highly unusual.
Jasper G. Franke, Johannes P. Werner, and Reik V. Donner
Clim. Past, 13, 1593–1608, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1593-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1593-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We apply evolving functional network analysis, a tool for studying temporal changes of the spatial co-variability structure, to a set of
Late Holocene paleoclimate proxy records covering the last two millennia. The emerging patterns obtained by our analysis are related to
long-term changes in the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the region, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We obtain a
qualitative reconstruction of the NAO long-term variability over the entire Common Era.
Jack Longman, Daniel Veres, Vasile Ersek, Ulrich Salzmann, Katalin Hubay, Marc Bormann, Volker Wennrich, and Frank Schäbitz
Clim. Past, 13, 897–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-897-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-897-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first record of dust input into an eastern European bog over the past 10 800 years. We find significant changes in past dust deposition, with large inputs related to both natural and human influences. We show evidence that Saharan desertification has had a significant impact on dust deposition in eastern Europe for the past 6100 years.
B. Wilhelm, H. Vogel, C. Crouzet, D. Etienne, and F. S. Anselmetti
Clim. Past, 12, 299–316, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-299-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-299-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The long-term response of the flood activity to both Atlantic and Mediterranean climatic influences was explored by reconstructing the Foréant record. Both influences result in a higher flood frequency during past cold periods. Atlantic influences seem to result in more frequent high-intensity flood events during past warm periods, suggesting an increase in flood intensity under the global warming. However, no high-intensity events occurred during the 20th century.
C. S. M. Turney, R. T. Jones, C. Fogwill, J. Hatton, A. N. Williams, A. Hogg, Z. A. Thomas, J. Palmer, S. Mooney, and R. W. Reimer
Clim. Past, 12, 189–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-189-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-189-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow is considered a major driver of Southern Ocean and global climate. Observational records, however, are limited. Here we present a new Falkland Islands record that exploits "exotic" South America pollen and charcoal to reconstruct changing airflow. We find stronger winds 2000–1000 cal. yr BP, associated with increased burning, and a 250-year periodicity, suggesting solar forcing. Our results have important implications for understanding late Holocene climates.
J. F. Donges, R. V. Donner, N. Marwan, S. F. M. Breitenbach, K. Rehfeld, and J. Kurths
Clim. Past, 11, 709–741, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-709-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-709-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate records from cave deposits allow the reconstruction of Holocene dynamics of the Asian monsoon system, an important tipping element in Earth's climate. Employing recently developed techniques of nonlinear time series analysis reveals several robust and continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoonal variability. These regime shifts might have played an important role as drivers of migration, cultural change, and societal collapse during the past 10,000 years.
A. Mauri, B. A. S. Davis, P. M. Collins, and J. O. Kaplan
Clim. Past, 10, 1925–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1925-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1925-2014, 2014
R. de Jong, L. von Gunten, A. Maldonado, and M. Grosjean
Clim. Past, 9, 1921–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1921-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1921-2013, 2013
M. Mudelsee, J. Fohlmeister, and D. Scholz
Clim. Past, 8, 1637–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1637-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1637-2012, 2012
J. C. Stager, P. A. Mayewski, J. White, B. M. Chase, F. H. Neumann, M. E. Meadows, C. D. King, and D. A. Dixon
Clim. Past, 8, 877–887, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-877-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-877-2012, 2012
B. Fréchette and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 5, 347–359, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-347-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-347-2009, 2009
Cited articles
Adkins, J., deMenocal, P., and Eshel, G.: The African humid period and the record of marine upwelling from excess 230Th in Ocean Drilling Program Hole 658C, Paleoceanography, 21, PA4203, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005pa001200, 2006.
Anchukaitis, K. J., Cook, E. R., Cook, B. I., Pearl, J., D'Arrigo, R., and Wilson, R.: Coupled Modes of North Atlantic Ocean-Atmosphere Variability and the Onset of the Little Ice Age, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 12417–12426, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084350, 2019.
Ault, T. R., Cole, J. E., Overpeck, J. T., Pederson, G. T., George, S. S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Woodhouse, C. A., and Deser, C.: The Continuum of Hydroclimate Variability in Western North America during the Last Millennium, J. Climate, 26, 5863–5878, 2013.
Ault, T. R., George, S. S., Smerdon, J. E., Coats, S., Mankin, J. S., Carrillo, C. M., Cook, B. I., and Stevenson, S.: A Robust Null Hypothesis for the Potential Causes of Megadrought in Western North America, J. Climate, 31, 3–24, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0154.1, 2018.
Axford, Y., Andresen, C. S., Andrews, J. T., Belt, S. T., Geirsdóttir, Á., Massé, G., Miller, G. H., Ólafsdóttir, S., and Vare, L. L.: Do paleoclimate proxies agree? A test comparing 19 late Holocene climate and sea-ice reconstructions from Icelandic marine and lake sediments, J. Quaternary Sci., 26, 645–656, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.1487, 2011.
Bellomo, K., Clement, A. C., Murphy, L. N., Polvani, L. M., and Cane, M. A.: New observational evidence for a positive cloud feedback that amplifies the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9852–9859, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069961, 2016.
Bender, M. L.: Paleoclimate, Princeton University Press, 320 pp., ISBN 9780691145549, 2013.
Bennett, K. D. and Fuller, J. L.: Determining the age of the mid-Holocene Tsuga canadensis (hemlock) decline, eastern North America, The Holocene, 12, 421–429, https://doi.org/10.1191/0959683602hl556rp, 2002.
Benson, L., Kashgarian, M., Rye, R., Lund, S., Paillet, F., Smoot, J., Kester, C., Mensing, S., Meko, D., and Lindström, S.: Holocene multidecadal and multicentennial droughts affecting Northern California and Nevada, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 659–682, 2002.
Berger, A.: Long-term variations of caloric insolation resulting from the earth's orbital elements, Quaternary Res., 9, 139–167, 1978.
Berke, M. A., Johnson, T. C., Werne, J. P., Schouten, S., and Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.: A mid-Holocene thermal maximum at the end of the African Humid Period, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 351–352, 95–104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.07.008, 2012.
Birkel, S. D., Mayewski, P. A., Maasch, K. A., Kurbatov, A. V., and Lyon, B.: Evidence for a volcanic underpinning of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci., 1, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0036-6, 2018.
Briner, J. P., McKay, N. P., Axford, Y., Bennike, O., Bradley, R. S., de Vernal, A., Fisher, D., Francus, P., Fréchette, B., Gajewski, K., Jennings, A., Kaufman, D. S., Miller, G., Rouston, C., and Wagner, B.: Holocene climate change in Arctic Canada and Greenland, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 147, 340–364, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.02.010, 2016.
Cacho, I., Grimalt, J. O., Canals, M., Sbaffi, L., Shackleton, N. J., Schönfeld, J., and Zahn, R.: Variability of the western Mediterranean Sea surface temperature during the last 25,000 years and its connection with the Northern Hemisphere climatic changes, Paleoceanography, 16, 40–52, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000PA000502, 2001.
Camill, P., Umbanhowar Jr, C. E., Teed, R., Geiss, C. E., Aldinger, J., Dvorak, L., Kenning, J., Limmer, J., and Walkup, K.: Late-glacial and Holocene climatic effects on fire and vegetation dynamics at the prairie-forest ecotone in south-central Minnesota, J. Ecol., 91, 822–836, 2003.
Claussen, M., Kubatzki, C., Brovkin, V., Ganopolski, A., Hoelzmann, P., and Pachur, H. J.: Simulation of an abrupt change in Saharan vegetation in the mid-Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 2037–2040, 1999.
Clement, A., Bellomo, K., Murphy, L. N., Cane, M. A., Mauritsen, T., Rädel, G., and Stevens, B.: The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation, Science, 350, 320–324, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aab3980, 2015.
Collins, J. A., Prange, M., Caley, T., Gimeno, L., Beckmann, B., Mulitza, S., Skonieczny, C., Roche, D., and Schefuß, E.: Rapid termination of the African Humid Period triggered by northern high-latitude cooling, Nat. Commun., 8, 1372, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01454-y, 2017.
Crucifix, M., de Vernal, A., Franzke, C., and von Gunten, L.: Centennial to Millennial Climate Variability, Past Global Changes Magazine, 25, 131–166, https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.25.3, 2017.
Dean, W. E.: Rates, timing, and cyclicity of Holocene eolian activity in north-central United States; evidence from varved lake sediments, Geology, 25, 331–334, 1997.
deMenocal, P. B.: Cultural Responses to Climate Change During the Late Holocene, Science, 292, 667–673, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1059287, 2001.
deMenocal, P., Ortiz, J., Guilderson, T., and Sarnthein, M.: Coherent High- and Low-Latitude Climate Variability During the Holocene Warm Period, Science, 288, 2198–2202, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.288.5474.2198, 2000.
Donovan, J. J., Smith, A. J., Panek, V. A., Engstrom, D. R., and Ito, E.: Climate-driven hydrologic transients in lake sediment records: calibration of groundwater conditions using 20th century drought, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 605–624, 2002.
Dyke, A. S.: An outline of North American deglaciation with emphasis on central and northern Canada, in: Developments in Quaternary Science, edited by: Ehlers, J. and Gibbard, P. L., Elsevier, 373–424, ISBN 978-0-444-51592-6, 2004.
Enfield, D. B., Mestas-Nuñez, A. M., and Trimble, P. J.: The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S., Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2077–2080, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012745, 2001.
Fastovich, D., Russell, J. M., Jackson, S. T., Krause, T. R., Marcott, S. A., and Williams, J. W.: Spatial Fingerprint of Younger Dryas Cooling and Warming in Eastern North America, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL090031, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090031, 2020.
Fletcher, W. J., Debret, M., and Goñi, M. F. S.: Mid-Holocene emergence of a low-frequency millennial oscillation in western Mediterranean climate: Implications for past dynamics of the North Atlantic atmospheric westerlies, The Holocene, 23, 153–166, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683612460783, 2013.
Folland, C. K., Knight, J., Linderholm, H. W., Fereday, D., Ineson, S., and Hurrell, J. W.: The Summer North Atlantic Oscillation: Past, Present, and Future, J. Climate, 22, 1082–1103, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2459.1, 2009.
Foster, D. R., Oswald, W. W., Faison, E. K., Doughty, E. D., and Hansen, B. C. S.: A climatic driver for abrupt mid-Holocene vegetation dynamics and the hemlock decline in New England, Ecology, 87, 2959–2966, 2006.
Giraudeau, J., Grelaud, M., Solignac, S., Andrews, J. T., Moros, M., and Jansen, E.: Millennial-scale variability in Atlantic water advection to the Nordic Seas derived from Holocene coccolith concentration records, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 1276–1287, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.02.014, 2010.
Gonzales, L. M. and Grimm, E. C.: Synchronization of late-glacial vegetation changes at Crystal Lake, Illinois, USA with the North Atlantic Event Stratigraphy, Quaternary Res., 72, 234–245, 2009.
Grimm, E. C.: Trends and palaeoecological problems in the vegetation and climate history of the northern Great Plains, U.S.A, Biol. Environ. Proc. R. Ir. Acad., 99B, 1–18, 2001.
Hébert, R., Herzschuh, U., and Laepple, T.: Millennial-scale climate variability over land overprinted by ocean temperature fluctuations, Nat. Geosci., 15, 899–905, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01056-4, 2022.
Henne, P. D. and Hu, F. S.: Holocene climatic change and the development of the lake-effect snowbelt in Michigan, USA, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 940–951, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.12.014, 2010.
Hernández, A., Martin-Puertas, C., Moffa-Sánchez, P., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Ortega, P., Blockley, S., Cobb, K. M., Comas-Bru, L., Giralt, S., Goosse, H., Luterbacher, J., Martrat, B., Muscheler, R., Parnell, A., Pla-Rabes, S., Sjolte, J., Scaife, A. A., Swingedouw, D., Wise, E., and Xu, G.: Modes of climate variability: Synthesis and review of proxy-based reconstructions through the Holocene, Earth-Sci. Rev., 209, 103286, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103286, 2020.
Herzschuh, U., Böhmer, T., Chevalier, M., Hébert, R., Dallmeyer, A., Li, C., Cao, X., Peyron, O., Nazarova, L., Novenko, E. Y., Park, J., Rudaya, N. A., Schlütz, F., Shumilovskikh, L. S., Tarasov, P. E., Wang, Y., Wen, R., Xu, Q., and Zheng, Z.: Regional pollen-based Holocene temperature and precipitation patterns depart from the Northern Hemisphere mean trends, Clim. Past, 19, 1481–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1481-2023, 2023.
Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., and Visbeck, M.: The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact, Geophysical Monograph Series, vol. 134, American Geophysical Union, 279 pp., ISBN 9780875909943, 2003.
Huybers, P. and Curry, W.: Links between annual, Milankovitch and continuum temperature variability, Nature, 441, 329–332, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04745, 2006.
Jackson, M. G., Oskarsson, N., Trønnes, R. G., McManus, J. F., Oppo, D. W., Grönvold, K., Hart, S. R., and Sachs, J. P.: Holocene loess deposition in Iceland: Evidence for millennial-scale atmosphere-ocean coupling in the North Atlantic, Geology, 33, 509–512, https://doi.org/10.1130/G21489.1, 2005.
Karnauskas, K. B., Smerdon, J. E., Seager, R., and González-Rouco, J. F.: A Pacific Centennial Oscillation Predicted by Coupled GCMs*, J. Climate, 25, 5943–5961, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00421.1, 2012.
Kobashi, T., Menviel, L., Jeltsch-Thömmes, A., Vinther, B. M., Box, J. E., Muscheler, R., Nakaegawa, T., Pfister, P. L., Döring, M., Leuenberger, M., Wanner, H., and Ohmura, A.: Volcanic influence on centennial to millennial Holocene Greenland temperature change, Sci. Rep., 7, 1441, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01451-7, 2017.
Konecky, B. L., McKay, N. P., Falster, G. M., Stevenson, S. L., Fischer, M. J., Atwood, A. R., Thompson, D. M., Jones, M. D., Tyler, J. J., DeLong, K. L., Martrat, B., Thomas, E. K., Conroy, J. L., Dee, S. G., Jonkers, L., Churakova (Sidorova), O. V., Kern, Z., Opel, T., Porter, T. J., Sayani, H. R., and Skrzypek, G.: Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia, Nat. Geosci., 16, 997–1004, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3, 2023.
Laepple, T., Ziegler, E., Weitzel, N., Hébert, R., Ellerhoff, B., Schoch, P., Martrat, B., Bothe, O., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Chevalier, M., Herbert, A., and Rehfeld, K.: Regional but not global temperature variability underestimated by climate models at supradecadal timescales, Nat. Geosci., 16, 958–966, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01299-9, 2023.
Larsen, D. J., Miller, G. H., Geirsdóttir, Á., and Ólafsdóttir, S.: Non-linear Holocene climate evolution in the North Atlantic: a high-resolution, multi-proxy record of glacier activity and environmental change from Hvítárvatn, central Iceland, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 39, 14–25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.02.006, 2012.
Liu, Z., Zhu, J., Rosenthal, Y., Zhang, X., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Timmermann, A., Smith, R. S., Lohmann, G., Zheng, W., and Timm, O. E.: The Holocene temperature conundrum, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, E3501–E3505, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1407229111, 2014.
Lochte, A. A., Schneider, R., Kienast, M., Repschläger, J., Blanz, T., Garbe-Schönberg, D., and Andersen, N.: Surface and subsurface Labrador Shelf water mass conditions during the last 6000 years, Clim. Past, 16, 1127–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1127-2020, 2020.
Ma, Z.-B., Cheng, H., Tan, M., Edwards, R. L., Li, H.-C., You, C.-F., Duan, W.-H., Wang, X., and Kelly, M. J.: Timing and structure of the Younger Dryas event in northern China, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 41, 83–93, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.03.006, 2012.
Magny, M. and Haas, J. N.: A major widespread climatic change around 5300 cal. yr BP at the time of the Alpine Iceman, J. Quaternary Sci., 19, 423–430, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.850, 2004.
Magny, M., Leuzinger, U., Bortenschlager, S., and Haas, J. N.: Tripartite climate reversal in Central Europe 5600–5300 years ago, Quaternary Res., 65, 3–19, 2006.
Marcott, S. A., Shakun, J. D., Clark, P. U., and Mix, A. C.: A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years, Science, 339, 1198–1201, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1228026, 2013.
Marsicek, J., Shuman, B. N., Bartlein, P. J., Shafer, S. L., and Brewer, S.: Reconciling divergent trends and millennial variations in Holocene temperatures, Nature, 554, 92–96, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature25464, 2018 (data available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/study/22992, last access: 7 October 2023).
Marsicek, J. P., Shuman, B., Brewer, S., Foster, D. R., and Oswald, W. W.: Moisture and temperature changes associated with the mid-Holocene Tsuga decline in the northeastern United States, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 80, 333–342, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.09.001, 2013.
Martínez-Sosa, P., Tierney, J. E., Stefanescu, I. C., Dearing Crampton-Flood, E., Shuman, B. N., and Routson, C.: A global Bayesian temperature calibration for lacustrine brGDGTs, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 305, 87–105, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2021.04.038, 2021.
Mayewski, P. A., Rohling, E., Stager, C., Karlen, K., Maasch, K., Meeker, L. D., Meyerson, E., Gasse, F., van Kreveld, S., Holmgren, K., Lee-Thorp, J., Rosqvist, G., Rack, F., Staubwasser, M., and Shneider, R.: Holocene climate variability, Quaternary Res., 62, 243, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2004.07.001, 2004.
Muschitiello, F., Zhang, Q., Sundqvist, H. S., Davies, F. J., and Renssen, H.: Arctic climate response to the termination of the African Humid Period, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 125, 91–97, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.08.012, 2015.
Nelson, D. M. and Hu, F. S.: Patterns and drivers of Holocene vegetational change near the prairie-forest ecotone in Minnesota: revisiting McAndrews' transect, New Phytol., 179, 449–459, 2008.
Newby, P., Shuman, B., Donnelly, J. P., Karnauskas, K. B., and Marsicek, J. P.: Centennial-to-Millennial Hydrologic Trends and Variability along the North Atlantic Coast, U.S.A., during the Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 4300–4307, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060183, 2014 (data available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/study/23074, last access: 7 October 2023).
Newby, P. E., Shuman, B. N., Donnelly, J. P., and MacDonald, D.: Repeated century-scale droughts over the past 13,000 yrs near the Hudson River watershed, USA, Quaternary Res., 75, 523–530, 2011.
NOAA NCEI: ETOPO 2022 15 Arc-Second Global Relief Model, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, https://doi.org/10.25921/fd45-gt74, 2022.
Olsen, J., Anderson, N. J., and Knudsen, M. F.: Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the past 5,200 years, Nat. Geosci., 5, 808–812, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1589, 2012.
Oppo, D. W., McManus, J. F., and Cullen, J. L.: Palaeo-oceanography: Deepwater variability in the Holocene epoch, Nature, 422, 277–277, 2003.
Orme, L. C., Miettinen, A., Seidenkrantz, M.-S., Tuominen, K., Pearce, C., Divine, D. V., Oksman, M., and Kuijpers, A.: Mid to late-Holocene sea-surface temperature variability off north-eastern Newfoundland and its linkage to the North Atlantic Oscillation, The Holocene, 31, 3–15, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683620961488, 2021.
Osman, M. B., Tierney, J. E., Zhu, J., Tardif, R., Hakim, G. J., King, J., and Poulsen, C. J.: Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum, Nature, 599, 239–244, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03984-4, 2021.
PAGES 2k Consortium: Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia, Nat. Geosci., 6, 339–346, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1797, 2013.
Parnell, A. C., Haslett, J., Allen, J. R. M., Buck, C. E., and Huntley, B.: A flexible approach to assessing synchroneity of past events using Bayesian reconstructions of sedimentation history, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 27, 1872–1885, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.07.009, 2008.
Pausata, F. S. R., Messori, G., and Zhang, Q.: Impacts of dust reduction on the northward expansion of the African monsoon during the Green Sahara period, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 434, 298–307, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.11.049, 2016.
Percival, D. B. and Walden, A. T.: Spectral Analysis for Physical Applications, Cambridge University Press, 616 pp., ISBN 0-521-43541-2, 1993.
Puleo, P. J. K., Axford, Y., McFarlin, J. M., Curry, B. B., Barklage, M., and Osburn, M. R.: Late glacial and Holocene paleoenvironments in the midcontinent United States, inferred from Geneva Lake leaf wax, ostracode valve, and bulk sediment chemistry, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 241, 106384, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106384, 2020.
R Core Development Team: R: A language and environment for statistical computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, https://www.r-project.org/ (last access: 12 February 2024), 2020.
Rach, O., Brauer, A., Wilkes, H., and Sachse, D.: Delayed hydrological response to Greenland cooling at the onset of the Younger Dryas in western Europe, Nat. Geosci., 7, 109–112, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2053, 2014.
Renssen, H., Goosse, H., and Muscheler, R.: Coupled climate model simulation of Holocene cooling events: oceanic feedback amplifies solar forcing, Clim. Past, 2, 79–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2-79-2006, 2006.
Reschke, M., Kunz, T., and Laepple, T.: Comparing methods for analysing time scale dependent correlations in irregularly sampled time series data, Comput. Geosci., 123, 65–72, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2018.11.009, 2019.
Russell, J. M., Hopmans, E. C., Loomis, S. E., Liang, J., and Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.: Distributions of 5- and 6-methyl branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) in East African lake sediment: Effects of temperature, pH, and new lacustrine paleotemperature calibrations, Org. Geochem., 117, 56–69, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orggeochem.2017.12.003, 2018.
Sachs, J. P.: Cooling of Northwest Atlantic slope waters during the Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L03609, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl028495, 2007 (data available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/study/6409, last access: 7 October 2023).
Saltzman, B.: Stochastically-driven climatic fluctuations in the sea-ice, ocean temperature, CO2 feedback system, Tellus, 34, 97–112, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1982.tb01797.x, 1982.
Schmidt, M. W., Weinlein, W. A., Marcantonio, F., and Lynch-Stieglitz, J.: Solar forcing of Florida Straits surface salinity during the early Holocene, Paleoceanography, 27, PA3204, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012PA002284, 2012.
Shuman, B. N. and Burrell, S. A.: Centennial to millennial hydroclimatic fluctuations in the humid northeast United States during the Holocene, Quaternary Res., 88, 514–524, https://doi.org/10.1017/qua.2017.62, 2017.
Shuman, B. N. and Marsicek, J. P.: The Structure of Holocene Climate Change in Mid-Latitude North America, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 141, 38–51, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.03.009, 2016 (data available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/study/31097, last access: 7 October 2023).
Shuman, B. N., Carter, G. E., Hougardy, D. D., Powers, K., and Shinker, J. J.: A north–south moisture dipole at multi century scales in the Central and Southern Rocky Mountains during the late Holocene, Rocky Mt. Geol., 49, 17–33, 2014.
Shuman, B. N., Marsicek, J., Oswald, W. W., and Foster, D. R.: Predictable hydrological and ecological responses to Holocene North Atlantic variability, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 5985–5990, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1814307116, 2019.
Shuman, B. N., Stefanescu, I. C., Grigg, L., Foster, D. R., and Oswald, W. W.: A Millennial-Scale Oscillation in Latitudinal Temperature Gradients along the Western North Atlantic during the Mid-Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL102556, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102556, 2023.
Slutzky, E.: The Summation of Random Causes as the Source of Cyclic Processes, Econometrica, 5, 105–146, https://doi.org/10.2307/1907241, 1937.
Smith, A. J., Donovan, J. J., Ito, E., Engstrom, D. R., and Panek, V. A.: Climate-driven hydrologic transients in lake sediment records: multoproxy record of mid-Holocene drought, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 625–646, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00041-5, 2002.
Steinman, B. A., Rosenmeier, M. F., and Abbott, M. B.: The isotopic and hydrologic response of small, closed-basin lakes to climate forcing from predictive models: Simulations of stochastic and mean state precipitation variations, Limnol. Oceanogr., 55, 2246–2261, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2010.55.6.2246, 2010.
Telford, R. J. and Birks, H. J. B.: A novel method for assessing the statistical significance of quantitative reconstructions inferred from biotic assemblages, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 30, 1272–1278, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.03.002, 2011.
Thompson, L. G., Mosley-Thompson, E., Davis, M. E., Henderson, K. A., Brecher, H. H., Zagorodnov, V. S., Mashiotta, T. A., Lin, P.-N., Mikhalenko, V. N., Hardy, D. R., and Beer, J.: Kilimanjaro Ice Core Records: Evidence of Holocene Climate Change in Tropical Africa, Science, 298, 589–593, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1073198, 2002.
Thornalley, D. J. R., Elderfield, H., and McCave, I. N.: Holocene oscillations in temperature and salinity of the surface subpolar North Atlantic, Nature, 457, 711–714, 2009.
Wan, L., Liu, Z., Liu, J., Sun, W., and Liu, B.: Holocene temperature response to external forcing: assessing the linear response and its spatial and temporal dependence, Clim. Past, 15, 1411–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1411-2019, 2019.
Wanner, H., Beer, J., Bütikofer, J., Crowley, T. J., Cubasch, U., Flückiger, J., Goosse, H., Grosjean, M., Joos, F., Kaplan, J. O., Küttel, M., Müller, S. A., Prentice, I. C., Solomina, O., Stocker, T. F., Tarasov, P., Wagner, M., and Widmann, M.: Mid- to Late Holocene climate change: an overview, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 27, 1791–1828, 2008.
Willard, D. A., Bernhardt, C. E., Korejwo, D. A., and Meyers, S. R.: Impact of millennial-scale Holocene climate variability on eastern North American terrestrial ecosystems: pollen-based climatic reconstruction, Global Planet. Change, 47, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.11.017, 2005.
Williams, J. W. and Shuman, B.: Obtaining accurate and precise environmental reconstructions from the modern analog technique and North American surface pollen dataset, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 27, 669–687, 2008.
Wills, R. C. J., Armour, K. C., Battisti, D. S., and Hartmann, D. L.: Ocean–Atmosphere Dynamical Coupling Fundamental to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, J. Climate, 32, 251–272, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0269.1, 2019.
Short summary
A gap in understanding climate variation exists at centennial to millennial scales, particularly for warm climates. Such variations challenge detection. They exceed direct observation but are geologically short. Centennial to millennial variations that may have influenced North America were examined over the past 7 kyr. Significant patterns were detected from fossil pollen and sedimentary lake level changes, indicating ecological, hydrological, and likely human significance.
A gap in understanding climate variation exists at centennial to millennial scales, particularly...
