Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Jan 2021
Research article |
| 11 Jan 2021
| 11 Jan 2021
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences
Masa Kageyama
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Louise C. Sime
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Marie Sicard
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Maria-Vittoria Guarino
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Anne de Vernal
Département des sciences de la Terre et de l'atmosphère, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Canada
Geotop, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Canada
Ruediger Stein
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences and Faculty of Geosciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
David Schroeder
Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Irene Malmierca-Vallet
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Cecilia Bitz
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
Pascale Braconnot
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Esther C. Brady
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
Jian Cao
Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
Matthew A. Chamberlain
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia
Danny Feltham
Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Chuncheng Guo
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Allegra N. LeGrande
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA
Gerrit Lohmann
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Katrin J. Meissner
Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Laurie Menviel
Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Polina Morozova
Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Staromonetny L. 29, Moscow, 119017, Russia
Kerim H. Nisancioglu
Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 41, Bergen, Norway
Centre for Earth Evolution and Dynamics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
Ryouta O'ishi
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Silvana Ramos Buarque
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), Toulouse, France
David Salas y Melia
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), Toulouse, France
Sam Sherriff-Tadano
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Julienne Stroeve
Centre for Earth Observation Science, 535 Wallace Building, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2 Canada
CPOM, University of College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
Xiaoxu Shi
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Bo Sun
Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
Robert A. Tomas
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
Evgeny Volodin
Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Gubkina 8, Moscow, 119333, Russia
Nicholas K. H. Yeung
Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Qiong Zhang
Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Zhongshi Zhang
Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geoscience (Wuhan), Wuhan, China
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Weipeng Zheng
LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Tilo Ziehn
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Australia
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- Summer surface air temperature proxies point to near-sea-ice-free conditions in the Arctic at 127 ka L. Sime et al. 10.5194/cp-19-883-2023
- Warmer western tropical South Atlantic during the Last Interglacial relative to the current interglacial period R. Nascimento et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103889
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- Newly dated permafrost deposits and their paleoecological inventory reveal an Eemian much warmer than today in Arctic Siberia L. Schirrmeister et al. 10.5194/cp-21-1143-2025
- General characteristics of climate change over China and associated dynamic mechanisms during the Last Interglacial based on PMIP4 simulations N. Jiang et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103700
- Influence of plate reference frames on deep-time climate simulations Z. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104352
- Lessons from paleoclimates for recent and future climate change: opportunities and insights M. Kageyama et al. 10.3389/fclim.2024.1511997
- Antarctic Ice Sheet Elevation Impacts on Water Isotope Records During the Last Interglacial S. Goursaud et al. 10.1029/2020GL091412
- Simulated ocean oxygenation during the interglacials MIS 5e and MIS 9e B. Duboc et al. 10.5194/cp-21-1093-2025
- The contribution of melt ponds to enhanced Arctic sea-ice melt during the Last Interglacial R. Diamond et al. 10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021
- Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) B. Otto-Bliesner et al. 10.5194/cp-17-63-2021
- Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet H. Yang et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0259816
- Comparison of Arctic and Southern Ocean sea ice between the last nine interglacials and the future Z. Wu et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06140-4
- Impact of Mountains in Southern China on the Eocene Climates of East Asia Z. Zhang et al. 10.1029/2022JD036510
- Variability and extremes: statistical validation of the Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model (AWI-ESM) J. Contzen et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-1803-2022
- Russian Climate Research in 2019–2022 I. Mokhov 10.1134/S0001433823150100
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- Calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation based on model-ensemble equilibrium and transient simulations from PMIP4 and PACMEDY X. Shi et al. 10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022
- Atmospheric and oceanic circulation altered by global mean sea-level rise Z. Zhang et al. 10.1038/s41561-023-01153-y
Latest update: 26 Jul 2025
Short summary
The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at...
