Articles | Volume 12, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1591-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1591-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Aug 2016
Research article |
| 01 Aug 2016
Could the Pliocene constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity?
J. C. Hargreaves
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk, The Old Chapel, Albert Hill, Settle, BD24 9HE, UK
J. D. Annan
BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk, The Old Chapel, Albert Hill, Settle, BD24 9HE, UK
Viewed
Total article views: 4,732 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 18 Jan 2016)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3,189 | 1,325 | 218 | 4,732 | 240 | 320 |
- HTML: 3,189
- PDF: 1,325
- XML: 218
- Total: 4,732
- BibTeX: 240
- EndNote: 320
Total article views: 3,188 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 01 Aug 2016)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,059 | 924 | 205 | 3,188 | 228 | 308 |
- HTML: 2,059
- PDF: 924
- XML: 205
- Total: 3,188
- BibTeX: 228
- EndNote: 308
Total article views: 1,544 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 18 Jan 2016)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,130 | 401 | 13 | 1,544 | 12 | 12 |
- HTML: 1,130
- PDF: 401
- XML: 13
- Total: 1,544
- BibTeX: 12
- EndNote: 12
Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- 古气候模拟研究进展与展望 仲. 张 et al. https://doi.org/10.1360/SSTe-2025-0312
- Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6? M. Schlund et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020
- Contribution of the coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice–vegetation model COSMOS to the PlioMIP2 C. Stepanek et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2275-2020
- Amplified surface warming in the south-west Pacific during the mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma) and future implications G. Grant et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1359-2023
- Paleoclimate data provide constraints on climate models' large-scale response to past CO2 changes D. Lunt et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01531-3
- Simulating Miocene Warmth: Insights From an Opportunistic Multi‐Model Ensemble (MioMIP1) N. Burls et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004054
- Late Miocene cooling coupled to carbon dioxide with Pleistocene-like climate sensitivity R. Brown et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00982-7
- Reconciling Conflicting Accounts of Local Radiative Feedbacks in Climate Models C. Hedemann et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0513.1
- Causes of the weak emergent constraint on climate sensitivity at the Last Glacial Maximum M. Renoult et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023
- Progress and prospects in paleoclimate modeling Z. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-025-1919-6
- A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP M. Renoult et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020
- The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity A. Haywood et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020
- The role of atmospheric CO2 in controlling sea surface temperature change during the Pliocene L. Burton et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1177-2024
- Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity R. Knutti et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3017
- Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models M. Rugenstein et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083898
- Climate Sensitivity on Geological Timescales Controlled by Nonlinear Feedbacks and Ocean Circulation A. Farnsworth et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083574
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- 古气候模拟研究进展与展望 仲. 张 et al. https://doi.org/10.1360/SSTe-2025-0312
- Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6? M. Schlund et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020
- Contribution of the coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice–vegetation model COSMOS to the PlioMIP2 C. Stepanek et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2275-2020
- Amplified surface warming in the south-west Pacific during the mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma) and future implications G. Grant et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1359-2023
- Paleoclimate data provide constraints on climate models' large-scale response to past CO2 changes D. Lunt et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01531-3
- Simulating Miocene Warmth: Insights From an Opportunistic Multi‐Model Ensemble (MioMIP1) N. Burls et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004054
- Late Miocene cooling coupled to carbon dioxide with Pleistocene-like climate sensitivity R. Brown et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00982-7
- Reconciling Conflicting Accounts of Local Radiative Feedbacks in Climate Models C. Hedemann et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0513.1
- Causes of the weak emergent constraint on climate sensitivity at the Last Glacial Maximum M. Renoult et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023
- Progress and prospects in paleoclimate modeling Z. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-025-1919-6
- A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP M. Renoult et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020
- The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity A. Haywood et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020
- The role of atmospheric CO2 in controlling sea surface temperature change during the Pliocene L. Burton et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1177-2024
- Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity R. Knutti et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3017
- Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models M. Rugenstein et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083898
- Climate Sensitivity on Geological Timescales Controlled by Nonlinear Feedbacks and Ocean Circulation A. Farnsworth et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083574
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 09 Jun 2026
Short summary
The mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3 million years ago, was the most recent interval with high greenhouse gases. By modelling the period with the same models used for future projections, we can link the past and future climates. Here we use data from the mid-Pliocene to produce a tentative result for equilibrium climate sensitivity. We show that there are considerable uncertainties that strongly influence the result, but we are optimistic that these may be reduced in the next few years.
The mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3 million years ago, was the most recent interval with high...
