Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-533-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-533-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Technical note
| 
24 Mar 2015
Technical note |
| 24 Mar 2015
Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age–depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model
Department for Earth Science and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, P.O. Box 7803, 5020 Bergen, Norway
M. P. Tingley
Department of Meteorology and Department of Statistics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
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22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Origin of spatial variation in US East Coast sea-level trends during 1900–2017 C. Piecuch et al. 10.1038/s41586-018-0787-6
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- Increased sea-level sensitivity to CO2 forcing across the Middle Pleistocene Transition from ice-albedo and ice-volume nonlinearities P. Liautaud & P. Huybers 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0192.1
- Challenges and perspectives for large‐scale temperature reconstructions of the past two millennia B. Christiansen & F. Ljungqvist 10.1002/2016RG000521
- Discussion on temperature reconstruction with sediment core data in Ilvonen et al. B. Li et al. 10.1002/env.2399
- Assessing the performance of the BARCAST climate field reconstruction technique for a climate with long-range memory T. Nilsen et al. 10.5194/cp-14-947-2018
- Spatio-temporal variability of Arctic summer temperatures over the past 2 millennia J. Werner et al. 10.5194/cp-14-527-2018
- Reconstruction of late Holocene climate based on tree growth and mechanistic hierarchical models J. Tipton et al. 10.1002/env.2368
- Bayesian hierarchical regression analysis of variations in sea surface temperature change over the past million years C. Snyder 10.1002/2016PA002944
- Reconstruction of spatio-temporal temperature from sparse historical records using robust probabilistic principal component regression J. Tipton et al. 10.5194/ascmo-3-1-2017
- Teleconnection stationarity, variability and trends of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) during the last millennium C. Dätwyler et al. 10.1007/s00382-017-4015-0
- Extracting a Common Signal in Tree Ring Widths with a Semi-parametric Bayesian Hierarchical Model O. Guin et al. 10.1007/s13253-018-0330-0
- Review and test of reproducibility of subdecadal resolution palaeoenvironmental reconstructions from microfossil assemblages R. Telford 10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.105893
- Cirque Glacier on South Georgia Shows Centennial Variability over the Last 7000 Years L. Oppedal et al. 10.3389/feart.2018.00002
- geoChronR – an R package to model, analyze, and visualize age-uncertain data N. McKay et al. 10.5194/gchron-3-149-2021
- Constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the North Atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments T. Nilsen et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107009
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- Combining a pollen and macrofossil synthesis with climate simulations for spatial reconstructions of European climate using Bayesian filtering N. Weitzel et al. 10.5194/cp-15-1275-2019
- Ocean-ice sheet interaction along the SE Nordic Seas margin from 35 to 15 ka BP L. Becker et al. 10.1016/j.margeo.2017.09.003
- Natural proxy records of temperature- and hydroclimate variability with annual resolution from the Northern Balkan–Carpathian region for the past millennium – Review & recalibration Z. Kern et al. 10.1016/j.quaint.2016.01.012
- Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future B. Cook et al. 10.1007/s40641-018-0093-2
- Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era 10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017
22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Origin of spatial variation in US East Coast sea-level trends during 1900–2017 C. Piecuch et al. 10.1038/s41586-018-0787-6
- No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era R. Neukom et al. 10.1038/s41586-019-1401-2
- Increased sea-level sensitivity to CO2 forcing across the Middle Pleistocene Transition from ice-albedo and ice-volume nonlinearities P. Liautaud & P. Huybers 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0192.1
- Challenges and perspectives for large‐scale temperature reconstructions of the past two millennia B. Christiansen & F. Ljungqvist 10.1002/2016RG000521
- Discussion on temperature reconstruction with sediment core data in Ilvonen et al. B. Li et al. 10.1002/env.2399
- Assessing the performance of the BARCAST climate field reconstruction technique for a climate with long-range memory T. Nilsen et al. 10.5194/cp-14-947-2018
- Spatio-temporal variability of Arctic summer temperatures over the past 2 millennia J. Werner et al. 10.5194/cp-14-527-2018
- Reconstruction of late Holocene climate based on tree growth and mechanistic hierarchical models J. Tipton et al. 10.1002/env.2368
- Bayesian hierarchical regression analysis of variations in sea surface temperature change over the past million years C. Snyder 10.1002/2016PA002944
- Reconstruction of spatio-temporal temperature from sparse historical records using robust probabilistic principal component regression J. Tipton et al. 10.5194/ascmo-3-1-2017
- Teleconnection stationarity, variability and trends of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) during the last millennium C. Dätwyler et al. 10.1007/s00382-017-4015-0
- Extracting a Common Signal in Tree Ring Widths with a Semi-parametric Bayesian Hierarchical Model O. Guin et al. 10.1007/s13253-018-0330-0
- Review and test of reproducibility of subdecadal resolution palaeoenvironmental reconstructions from microfossil assemblages R. Telford 10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.105893
- Cirque Glacier on South Georgia Shows Centennial Variability over the Last 7000 Years L. Oppedal et al. 10.3389/feart.2018.00002
- geoChronR – an R package to model, analyze, and visualize age-uncertain data N. McKay et al. 10.5194/gchron-3-149-2021
- Constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the North Atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments T. Nilsen et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107009
- Discussion of “A Bayesian multinomial regression model for paleoclimate reconstruction with time uncertainty,” by Ilvonen et al. P. Craigmile 10.1002/env.2400
- Combining a pollen and macrofossil synthesis with climate simulations for spatial reconstructions of European climate using Bayesian filtering N. Weitzel et al. 10.5194/cp-15-1275-2019
- Ocean-ice sheet interaction along the SE Nordic Seas margin from 35 to 15 ka BP L. Becker et al. 10.1016/j.margeo.2017.09.003
- Natural proxy records of temperature- and hydroclimate variability with annual resolution from the Northern Balkan–Carpathian region for the past millennium – Review & recalibration Z. Kern et al. 10.1016/j.quaint.2016.01.012
- Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future B. Cook et al. 10.1007/s40641-018-0093-2
- Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era 10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017
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Short summary
We present a Bayesian approach to simultaneously constrain the age models associated with time-uncertain proxies and inferring past climate in space and time. For the sake of exposition, the discussion focuses on annually resolved climate archives, such as varved lakes, corals, and tree rings, with dating by layer counting. Numerical experiments show that updating the probabilities associated with an ensemble of possible age models reduces uncertainty in the inferred climate.
We present a Bayesian approach to simultaneously constrain the age models associated with...
