Articles | Volume 11, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Dec 2015
Research article |
| 21 Dec 2015
On the state dependency of the equilibrium climate sensitivity during the last 5 million years
P. Köhler
Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar-und Meeresforschung (AWI), P.O. Box 12 01 61, 27515 Bremerhaven, Germany
B. de Boer
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, 3584 CD Utrecht, the Netherlands
now at: School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
A. S. von der Heydt
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
L. B. Stap
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
R. S. W. van de Wal
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Cited
37 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Including the efficacy of land ice changes in deriving climate sensitivity from paleodata L. Stap et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019
- Ocean temperatures through the Phanerozoic reassessed E. Grossman & M. Joachimski https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11493-1
- Revised estimates of paleoclimate sensitivity over the past 800,000 years C. Snyder https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02536-0
- A State‐Dependent Quantification of Climate Sensitivity Based on Paleodata of the Last 2.1 Million Years P. Köhler et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017PA003190
- Earth’s Climate History from 4.5 Billion Years to One Minute J. Lin & T. Qian https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2022.2082914
- Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes A. von der Heydt et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3
- Climate variability, heat distribution, and polar amplification in the warm unipolar “icehouse” of the Oligocene D. Jenny et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1627-2024
- Climate Sensitivity in the Geologic Past D. Royer https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-100815-024150
- Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming T. Friedrich et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1501923
- State-dependent impact of major volcanic eruptions observed in ice-core records of the last glacial period J. Lohmann et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-313-2024
- The Transient Response of Ice Volume to Orbital Forcing During the Warm Late Pliocene B. de Boer et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073535
- State dependency of the forest-tundra-short wave feedback: comparing the mid-Pliocene and pre-industrial eras P. Paiewonsky et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06474-z
- Interglacials of the Quaternary defined by northern hemispheric land ice distribution outside of Greenland P. Köhler & R. van de Wal https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18897-5
- Robust Constraints on Past CO2 Climate Forcing From the Boron Isotope Proxy M. Hain et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018PA003362
- State‐Dependence of the Climate Sensitivity in Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity P. Pfister & T. Stocker https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075457
- An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence S. Sherwood et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000678
- Global and regional temperature change over the past 4.5 million years P. Clark et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi1908
- Differences between the last two glacial maxima and implications for ice-sheet, δ18O, and sea-level reconstructions E. Rohling et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.09.009
- Early Pleistocene Obliquity‐Scale pCO2 Variability at ~1.5 Million Years Ago K. Dyez et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018PA003349
- Using Late Pleistocene sea surface temperature reconstructions to constrain future greenhouse warming T. Friedrich & A. Timmermann https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2019.115911
- Comparing Climate Sensitivity, Past and Present E. Rohling et al. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-121916-063242
- Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity R. Knutti et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3017
- Extreme Sensitivity and Climate Tipping Points P. Ashwin & A. von der Heydt https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-019-02425-x
- Increasingly Sophisticated Climate Models Need the Out‐Of‐Sample Tests Paleoclimates Provide N. Burls & N. Sagoo https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003389
- No apparent state-dependency of equilibrium climate sensitivity between the Pleistocene glacial and interglacial climate states J. Da et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-61941-5
- State dependence of climate sensitivity: attractor constraints and palaeoclimate regimes A. von der Heydt & P. Ashwin https://doi.org/10.1093/climsys/dzx001
- In and out of glacial extremes by way of dust−climate feedbacks G. Shaffer & F. Lambert https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708174115
- Alternative climatic steady states near the Permian–Triassic Boundary C. Ragon et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76432-8
- Late Miocene cooling coupled to carbon dioxide with Pleistocene-like climate sensitivity R. Brown et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00982-7
- Modest global-scale cooling despite extensive early Pleistocene ice sheets J. Shakun https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.04.010
- Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Based on Boron Isotopes Versus Simulations of the Global Carbon Cycle During the Plio‐Pleistocene P. Köhler https://doi.org/10.1029/2022PA004439
- The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet–climate model L. Stap et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1243-2017
- Equilibrium climate sensitivity dependence on changing climate, geography, and ocean heat transport J. Campbell & C. Poulsen https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08190-4
- Modeled Influence of Land Ice and CO2on Polar Amplification and Paleoclimate Sensitivity During the Past 5 Million Years L. Stap et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017PA003313
- Assessment of long-chain n-alkanes as a paleoclimate proxy in the Bering Sea sediments O. Seki et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102687
- Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates V. Cooper et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adk9461
- The Effect of Obliquity‐Driven Changes on Paleoclimate Sensitivity During the Late Pleistocene P. Köhler et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077717
37 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Including the efficacy of land ice changes in deriving climate sensitivity from paleodata L. Stap et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019
- Ocean temperatures through the Phanerozoic reassessed E. Grossman & M. Joachimski https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11493-1
- Revised estimates of paleoclimate sensitivity over the past 800,000 years C. Snyder https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02536-0
- A State‐Dependent Quantification of Climate Sensitivity Based on Paleodata of the Last 2.1 Million Years P. Köhler et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017PA003190
- Earth’s Climate History from 4.5 Billion Years to One Minute J. Lin & T. Qian https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2022.2082914
- Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes A. von der Heydt et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3
- Climate variability, heat distribution, and polar amplification in the warm unipolar “icehouse” of the Oligocene D. Jenny et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1627-2024
- Climate Sensitivity in the Geologic Past D. Royer https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-100815-024150
- Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming T. Friedrich et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1501923
- State-dependent impact of major volcanic eruptions observed in ice-core records of the last glacial period J. Lohmann et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-313-2024
- The Transient Response of Ice Volume to Orbital Forcing During the Warm Late Pliocene B. de Boer et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073535
- State dependency of the forest-tundra-short wave feedback: comparing the mid-Pliocene and pre-industrial eras P. Paiewonsky et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06474-z
- Interglacials of the Quaternary defined by northern hemispheric land ice distribution outside of Greenland P. Köhler & R. van de Wal https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18897-5
- Robust Constraints on Past CO2 Climate Forcing From the Boron Isotope Proxy M. Hain et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018PA003362
- State‐Dependence of the Climate Sensitivity in Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity P. Pfister & T. Stocker https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075457
- An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence S. Sherwood et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000678
- Global and regional temperature change over the past 4.5 million years P. Clark et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi1908
- Differences between the last two glacial maxima and implications for ice-sheet, δ18O, and sea-level reconstructions E. Rohling et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.09.009
- Early Pleistocene Obliquity‐Scale pCO2 Variability at ~1.5 Million Years Ago K. Dyez et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018PA003349
- Using Late Pleistocene sea surface temperature reconstructions to constrain future greenhouse warming T. Friedrich & A. Timmermann https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2019.115911
- Comparing Climate Sensitivity, Past and Present E. Rohling et al. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-121916-063242
- Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity R. Knutti et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3017
- Extreme Sensitivity and Climate Tipping Points P. Ashwin & A. von der Heydt https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-019-02425-x
- Increasingly Sophisticated Climate Models Need the Out‐Of‐Sample Tests Paleoclimates Provide N. Burls & N. Sagoo https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003389
- No apparent state-dependency of equilibrium climate sensitivity between the Pleistocene glacial and interglacial climate states J. Da et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-61941-5
- State dependence of climate sensitivity: attractor constraints and palaeoclimate regimes A. von der Heydt & P. Ashwin https://doi.org/10.1093/climsys/dzx001
- In and out of glacial extremes by way of dust−climate feedbacks G. Shaffer & F. Lambert https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708174115
- Alternative climatic steady states near the Permian–Triassic Boundary C. Ragon et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76432-8
- Late Miocene cooling coupled to carbon dioxide with Pleistocene-like climate sensitivity R. Brown et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00982-7
- Modest global-scale cooling despite extensive early Pleistocene ice sheets J. Shakun https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.04.010
- Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Based on Boron Isotopes Versus Simulations of the Global Carbon Cycle During the Plio‐Pleistocene P. Köhler https://doi.org/10.1029/2022PA004439
- The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet–climate model L. Stap et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1243-2017
- Equilibrium climate sensitivity dependence on changing climate, geography, and ocean heat transport J. Campbell & C. Poulsen https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08190-4
- Modeled Influence of Land Ice and CO2on Polar Amplification and Paleoclimate Sensitivity During the Past 5 Million Years L. Stap et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017PA003313
- Assessment of long-chain n-alkanes as a paleoclimate proxy in the Bering Sea sediments O. Seki et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102687
- Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates V. Cooper et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adk9461
- The Effect of Obliquity‐Driven Changes on Paleoclimate Sensitivity During the Late Pleistocene P. Köhler et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077717
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 12 Jun 2026
Short summary
We find that the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity due to radiative forcing of CO2 and land ice albedo has been state-dependent for the last 2.1Myr (most of the Pleistocene). Its value is ~45% larger during intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. The state dependency is mainly caused by a latitudinal dependency in ice sheet area changes. Due to uncertainties in CO2, firm conclusions for the Pliocene are not yet possible.
We find that the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity due to radiative forcing of CO2 and...
