Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-160
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-160
29 Nov 2018
 | 29 Nov 2018
Status: this preprint has been withdrawn by the authors.

A 500-year multi-proxy drought reconstruction for the Czech Lands

Petr Dobrovolný, Rudolf Brázdil, Miroslav Trnka, Michal Rybníček, Tomáš Kolář, Martin Možný, Tomáš Kyncl, and Ulf Büntgen

Abstract. Any proxy archive related to climate has inherent advantages and disadvantages. What have become known as the multi-proxy approaches therefore constitute the cutting edge of paleoclimatology, as they are capable of providing more complete pictures of past climatic changes. This contribution combines tree-ring width chronologies, grape harvest dates and documentary-based precipitation indices from the territory of the Czech Republic to reconstruct inter-annual to multi-decadal drought variability, as expressed by Z-index, back to AD 1501. Using Principle Component Analysis and simple linear regression, the multi-proxy record explains 70 % of April–July drought variability between 1805 and 1854. It is demonstrated that the relatively short calibration period of early instrumental measurements, from 1805 to 1854, does not influence the quality of this reconstruction, and that the regression approach does not underestimate drought extremes. While reflecting a considerable amount of inter-annual spring-summer drought variability, the new Z-index reconstruction does not capture any long-term trends beyond the multi-decadal domain. The driest (1616) and the wettest (1713) years match previously published hydroclimate reconstructions from the same region, whereas the driest and wettest 30-year periods occurred in 1998–2017 and 1890–1919 respectively. Thus central Europe has recently experienced the most severe decadal-scale late spring–early summer drought of the past 500 years. The new multi-proxy drought reconstruction demonstrated progress beyond previous single-proxy attempts at establishing the strength of hydroclimate signal.

This preprint has been withdrawn.

Petr Dobrovolný, Rudolf Brázdil, Miroslav Trnka, Michal Rybníček, Tomáš Kolář, Martin Možný, Tomáš Kyncl, and Ulf Büntgen

Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Petr Dobrovolný, Rudolf Brázdil, Miroslav Trnka, Michal Rybníček, Tomáš Kolář, Martin Možný, Tomáš Kyncl, and Ulf Büntgen
Petr Dobrovolný, Rudolf Brázdil, Miroslav Trnka, Michal Rybníček, Tomáš Kolář, Martin Možný, Tomáš Kyncl, and Ulf Büntgen

Viewed

Total article views: 2,053 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
1,540 455 58 2,053 57 57
  • HTML: 1,540
  • PDF: 455
  • XML: 58
  • Total: 2,053
  • BibTeX: 57
  • EndNote: 57
Views and downloads (calculated since 29 Nov 2018)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 29 Nov 2018)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 1,799 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 1,784 with geography defined and 15 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 

Cited

Latest update: 12 Apr 2024
Download

This preprint has been withdrawn.

Short summary
Careful selection of available moisture-sensitive proxies resulted in a new reconstruction of short-term drought over the Czech Republic during the last 500 years. It consists of a synthesis of four different proxies and its high reconstruction skill demonstrates the clear advantage of a multi-proxy approach. The new chronology of Z-index shows that central Europe experienced the most severe 30-year late spring–early summer period of drought for the last 500 years.