Late Pleistocene to Holocene climate and limnological changes at Lake Karakul (Pamir Mountains, Tajikistan)

Abstract. Lake Karakul, located in the eastern Pamir Mountains, Tajikistan, is today dominated by the Westerlies. It is a matter of debate whether the Indian Monsoon influenced the region in the past. We analysed an 11.25 m sediment core covering the last 29,000 years to assess and separate lake-internal and lake-external processes, and to infer changes in the predominant atmospheric circulation. Among the parameters indicating lake-external processes, high values in grain-size end-member (EM) 3 (wide grain-size distribution, marking fluvial input) and Sr/Rb and Zr/Rb ratios (coinciding with coarse grain sizes, implying increased physical weathering) are interpreted as a strong monsoonal impact. High values in EM1, EM2 (peaking at small grain sizes reflecting Westerlies-derived dust) and TiO₂ (terrigenous input) are assumed to reflect a strong influence of Westerlies. High input of far-transported dust from the pre-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the late glacial reflects the Westerlies influence, while peaks in fluvial input suggest monsoonal influence. The early to early-mid Holocene is characterised by coarse mean grain sizes, increased physical weathering and constantly high fluvial input indicating a strengthened Indian Monsoon that reached further north into the Karakul region. A steady increase in terrigenous dust, decrease in fluvial input and physical weathering from 6.7 cal kyr BP onwards signals that Westerlies became the predominant atmospheric circulation and brought an arid climate to the region. Proxies for productivity (TOC, C/N, TOC_Br), redox potential (Fe/Mn) and changes in the endogenic carbonate precipitation (TIC) indicate lake-internal changes. Low productivity characterised the lake from the late Pleistocene until 6.7 cal kyr BP and rapidly increased afterwards. The lake level remained low until the LGM, but water depth increased during the late glacial, reaching a high-stand during the early Holocene. Subsequently, the water level decreased until its present state. Today the lake system is mainly climatically controlled but the depositional regime is also driven by lake-internal limnogeological processes.